Atromitos vs PAOK prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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Atromitos vs PAOK: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Super League Greece
Atromitos

LWLWL

Full time1-2Sun, 30 Aug 202618:15UK
PAOK

WDDDW

Model’s top convictions

73%

Over 1.5 goals

70%

Draw or PAOK

58%

Atromitos or draw

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Atromitos 1-2 PAOK
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was PAOK at 42.2%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 53.6% and it missed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 72.5% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 75.1% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 51.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 70.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 73.5% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 63.5% and it landed (8 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 67.3% and it missed (2 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 63.2% and it missed (30 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 52.8% and it missed (7 shots on target). We called No at 87.5% and it landed.

Match data Atromitos PAOK
Goals, 1st half 1 1
Goals, 2nd half 0 1
Shots 16 14
Shots on target 3 4
Corners 2 6
Yellow cards 1 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 19 18

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
PAOKWin probability
42.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals72.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.38
Draw or PAOK70.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.43
Atromitos or draw57.8%Good chancePays @ 1.73

Model read

▾

"42% on PAOK is a measurement, not a promise." Our engine prices PAOK at 42% for 30 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing PAOK at 58%. Caution noted. No strong lean on goals (46% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The recent series reads 1 wins for Atromitos, 0 draws and 4 for PAOK over 5 games, 2.2 goals on average. The run in: Atromitos arrive W2 D0 L4, PAOK W2 D3 L1. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.18).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 8.5 corners47.4%@ 2.11
Over 2.5 goals46.4%@ 2.16
PAOK win42.2%@ 2.37
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals53.6%@ 1.87
Both teams to score51.7%@ 1.93
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.2%@ 7.55
0-1 correct score10.5%@ 9.54
1-2 correct score8.8%@ 11.38

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Atromitos

30.0%+12.5%

Draw

27.8%+3.7%

PAOK

42.2%-16.2%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.18)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.572.5%

Strong chance

Over 2.546.4%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes51.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.547.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.537.0%

Toss-up

Over 10.527.9%

Low chance

Over 11.520.3%

Low chance

Most cornersAtromitos50.9%PAOK37.6%

Shots markets

Over 22.548.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 24.536.8%

Toss-up

Over 26.526.8%

Low chance

Over 28.518.5%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.572.5%2.546.4%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.572.5%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

AtromitosLWLWL
PAOKWDDDW

Last 5 meetings: Atromitos 1 · 0 draws · PAOK 4 · 2.2 goals/game.

2025-12-14Atromitos 2-0 PAOK
2025-08-31PAOK 1-0 Atromitos
2024-12-22PAOK 3-0 Atromitos
2024-09-01Atromitos 1-2 PAOK
2024-02-04Atromitos 0-2 PAOK

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AtromitosPAOK
League position#8 of 12#2 of 12
Record W-D-L0-0-11-0-0
Current streakL1W1
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Atromitos win5.003.33
Draw3.753.60
PAOK win1.622.37
Over 2.5 goals1.832.16
Under 2.5 goals1.981.87

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Atromitos win3.34
Draw3.60
PAOK win2.37
Both teams to score1.94

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.38
Over 2.5 goals2.16
Over 3.5 goals4.02
Atromitos most3.34
PAOK most2.37

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.62
Over 8.5 corners2.05
Over 9.5 corners2.74
Over 10.5 corners3.86
Atromitos most1.96
PAOK most2.65

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.20
Over 3.5 cards1.49
Over 4.5 cards2.06
Over 5.5 cards3.20
Atromitos most2.60
PAOK most2.36

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.54
Over 7.5 SoT1.90
Over 8.5 SoT2.43
Over 9.5 SoT3.25
Atromitos most2.04
PAOK most2.59

Shots

Over 22.5 shots2.08
Over 24.5 shots2.72
Over 26.5 shots3.73
Over 28.5 shots5.40
Atromitos most1.69
PAOK most2.87

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.13
Over 22.5 fouls1.25
Over 24.5 fouls1.45
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 64.8% Over 7.5 52.8% Over 8.5 41.1% Over 9.5 30.8%
Most: Atromitos 49.1% Most: PAOK 38.6%
Atromitos Over 4.2 41.0% PAOK Over 4.2 33.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 83.6% Over 3.5 67.3% Over 4.5 48.5%
Most: Atromitos 38.4% Most: PAOK 42.4%
Atromitos Over 1.8 65.5% PAOK Over 1.8 68.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Atromitos clean sheet 24.8%
PAOK clean sheet 32.0%
Atromitos win to nil 16.2%
PAOK win to nil 23.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 30.0% draw 27.8% away 42.2%
double_chance
1X 57.8% 12 72.2% X2 70.0%
dnb
home 41.5% away 58.5%
btts
yes 51.7% no 48.3%
clean_sheet
home 24.8% away 32.1%
win_to_nil
home 16.2% away 23.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.7% home_by_2 8.4% home_by_3plus 3.8%
away_by_1 21.9% away_by_2 12.7% away_by_3plus 7.6%
correct_score
0-0 8.6% 0-1 10.5% 0-2 7.8%
0-3 3.6% 0-4 1.3% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 8.4% 1-1 13.2% 1-2 8.8%
1-3 4.1% 1-4 1.4% 1-5 0.4%
2-0 5.1% 2-1 7.2% 2-2 5.0%
2-3 2.3% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 1.9% 3-1 2.7% 3-2 1.9%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.5% 4-1 0.8% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.4% under_0.5 8.6% over_1.5 72.5%
under_1.5 27.5% over_2.5 46.4% under_2.5 53.6%
over_3.5 24.9% under_3.5 75.1% over_4.5 11.3%
under_4.5 88.7% over_5.5 4.4% under_5.5 95.6%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 67.9% under_0.5 32.1% over_1.5 31.4%
under_1.5 68.6% over_2.5 10.7% under_2.5 89.3%
team_away
over_0.5 75.2% under_0.5 24.8% over_1.5 40.6%
under_1.5 59.4% over_2.5 16.5% under_2.5 83.5%
most
home 30.0% draw 27.8% away 42.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 3.8% away_+2.5 96.2% home_-1.5 12.2%
away_+1.5 87.8% home_-0.5 30.0% away_+0.5 70.0%
home_+0.5 57.8% away_-0.5 42.2% home_+1.5 79.7%
away_-1.5 20.3% home_+2.5 92.4% away_-2.5 7.6%
total_exact
exact_0 8.6% exact_1 18.9% exact_2 26.1%
exact_3 21.5% exact_4 13.6% exact_5 6.9%
exact_6 2.9% exact_7plus 1.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 25.5% draw 41.3% away 33.2%
total
over_0.5 70.6% under_0.5 29.4% over_1.5 34.6%
under_1.5 65.4% over_2.5 12.6% under_2.5 87.4%
btts
yes 20.8% no 79.2%
total_exact
exact_0 29.4% exact_1 36.0% exact_2 22.0%
exact_3 9.0% exact_4plus 3.6%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 25.1% draw 39.3% away 35.6%
total
over_0.5 73.5% under_0.5 26.5% over_1.5 38.3%
under_1.5 61.7% over_2.5 14.9% under_2.5 85.1%
btts
yes 23.2% no 76.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 18.0% H/D 5.2% H/A 2.3%
D/H 10.4% D/D 16.3% D/A 14.7%
A/H 1.6% A/D 4.9% A/A 26.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 61.7% under_7.5 38.3% over_8.5 48.8%
under_8.5 51.2% over_9.5 36.5% under_9.5 63.5%
over_10.5 25.9% under_10.5 74.1% over_11.5 17.4%
under_11.5 82.6% over_12.5 11.1% under_12.5 88.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.9% under_3.5 36.1% over_4.5 47.5%
under_4.5 52.5% over_5.5 32.7% under_5.5 67.3%
team_away
over_3.5 54.2% under_3.5 45.9% over_4.5 37.2%
under_4.5 62.8% over_5.5 23.5% under_5.5 76.5%
most
home 51.1% draw 11.2% away 37.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.7% away_+3.5 79.3% home_-1.5 39.8%
away_+1.5 60.2% home_-0.5 51.1% away_+0.5 48.9%
home_+0.5 62.3% away_-0.5 37.8% home_+1.5 72.5%
away_-1.5 27.5% home_+3.5 87.7% away_-3.5 12.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 48.2% under_22.5 51.8% over_24.5 36.8%
under_24.5 63.2% over_26.5 26.8% under_26.5 73.2%
over_28.5 18.5% under_28.5 81.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 61.2% under_10.5 38.8% over_12.5 45.4%
under_12.5 54.6% over_14.5 31.2% under_14.5 68.8%
team_away
over_10.5 43.8% under_10.5 56.2% over_12.5 28.3%
under_12.5 71.7% over_14.5 16.8% under_14.5 83.2%
most
home 59.3% draw 5.8% away 34.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.4% away_+4.5 64.6% home_-2.5 47.2%
away_+2.5 52.8% home_-0.5 59.3% away_+0.5 40.7%
home_+0.5 65.1% away_-0.5 34.9% home_+2.5 75.6%
away_-2.5 24.4% home_+4.5 84.1% away_-4.5 15.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 64.8% under_6.5 35.2% over_7.5 52.8%
under_7.5 47.2% over_8.5 41.2% under_8.5 58.9%
over_9.5 30.8% under_9.5 69.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 57.2% under_3.5 42.8% over_4.5 41.0%
under_4.5 59.0% over_5.5 27.5% under_5.5 72.5%
team_away
over_3.5 49.7% under_3.5 50.3% over_4.5 33.5%
under_4.5 66.5% over_5.5 21.0% under_5.5 79.0%
most
home 49.1% draw 12.3% away 38.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.3% away_+2.5 73.7% home_-0.5 49.1%
away_+0.5 50.9% home_+0.5 61.4% away_-0.5 38.6%
home_+2.5 81.8% away_-2.5 18.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 83.6% under_2.5 16.4% over_3.5 67.3%
under_3.5 32.7% over_4.5 48.5% under_4.5 51.5%
over_5.5 31.3% under_5.5 68.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 65.5% under_1.5 34.5% over_2.5 38.8%
under_2.5 61.2%
team_away
over_1.5 68.1% under_1.5 31.9% over_2.5 41.7%
under_2.5 58.3%
most
home 38.4% draw 19.2% away 42.4%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.9% away_+1.5 78.1% home_-0.5 38.4%
away_+0.5 61.6% home_+0.5 57.6% away_-0.5 42.4%
home_+1.5 75.0% away_-1.5 25.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 88.3% under_20.5 11.7% over_22.5 79.9%
under_22.5 20.2% over_24.5 69.0% under_24.5 31.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 82.8% under_9.5 17.2% over_11.5 67.1%
under_11.5 33.0% over_13.5 48.9% under_13.5 51.1%
team_away
over_9.5 85.3% under_9.5 14.7% over_11.5 70.9%
under_11.5 29.1% over_13.5 53.3% under_13.5 46.7%
most
home 43.6% draw 6.5% away 49.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.8% away_+3.5 74.2% home_-0.5 43.6%
away_+0.5 56.4% home_+2.5 62.9% away_-2.5 37.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.5% no 87.5%
home
yes 6.4% no 93.6%
away
yes 6.5% no 93.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Atromitos predictions · PAOK predictions · Super League Greece

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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