Panetolikos vs Kalamata: model prediction
Super League GreecePanetolikos or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Panetolikos at 49.5%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 56.8% and it landed (2 goals). We called No at 52.8% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Our engine prices Panetolikos at 50% for 29 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Our number sits above the market's 43% for Panetolikos. The gap itself is information. 2) The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 43% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 47%. 3) The run in: Panetolikos arrive W2 D2 L2, Kalamata W0 D0 L1. As a promoted side, Kalamata carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The engine passes on this one (trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
49.5%+6.6%
27.5%-2.4%
23.0%-4.1%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Shots markets
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Panetolikos
KalamataBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 66.9% | Over 7.5 | 55.1% | Over 8.5 | 43.5% | Over 9.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Panetolikos | 47.3% | Most: Kalamata | 40.5% | ||||
| Panetolikos Over 4.2 | 41.3% | Kalamata Over 4.2 | 36.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 86.4% | Over 3.5 | 71.6% | Over 4.5 | 53.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Panetolikos | 32.1% | Most: Kalamata | 49.7% | ||
| Panetolikos Over 1.8 | 64.2% | Kalamata Over 1.8 | 74.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Panetolikos clean sheet | 39.5% |
|---|---|
| Kalamata clean sheet | 22.7% |
| Panetolikos win to nil | 29.8% |
| Kalamata win to nil | 13.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 49.5% | draw | 27.5% | away | 23.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 77.0% | 12 | 72.5% | X2 | 50.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 68.3% | away | 31.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 47.3% | no | 52.8% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 39.6% | away | 22.8% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 30.0% | away | 13.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.2% | home_by_2 | 15.2% | home_by_3plus | 10.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 14.9% | away_by_2 | 6.0% | away_by_3plus | 2.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.6% | 0-1 | 7.7% | 0-2 | 3.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.2% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 12.7% | 1-1 | 13.0% | 1-2 | 5.7% |
| 1-3 | 1.8% | 1-4 | 0.4% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.9% | 2-1 | 9.1% | 2-2 | 4.2% |
| 2-3 | 1.3% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.9% | 3-1 | 4.5% | 3-2 | 2.1% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.8% | 4-1 | 1.7% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.5% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.4% | under_0.5 | 9.6% | over_1.5 | 69.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 30.1% | over_2.5 | 43.2% | under_2.5 | 56.8% |
| over_3.5 | 22.3% | under_3.5 | 77.7% | over_4.5 | 9.7% |
| under_4.5 | 90.3% | over_5.5 | 3.6% | under_5.5 | 96.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 77.2% | under_0.5 | 22.8% | over_1.5 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.5% | over_2.5 | 18.6% | under_2.5 | 81.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 60.4% | under_0.5 | 39.6% | over_1.5 | 23.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 76.3% | over_2.5 | 6.7% | under_2.5 | 93.3% |
most
| home | 49.5% | draw | 27.5% | away | 23.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 10.0% | away_+2.5 | 90.0% | home_-1.5 | 25.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 74.8% | home_-0.5 | 49.5% | away_+0.5 | 50.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 77.0% | away_-0.5 | 23.0% | home_+1.5 | 91.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 8.1% | home_+2.5 | 97.9% | away_-2.5 | 2.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.6% | exact_1 | 20.5% | exact_2 | 26.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.9% | exact_4 | 12.6% | exact_5 | 6.1% |
| exact_6 | 2.4% | exact_7plus | 1.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 28.9% | draw | 41.4% | away | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 70.7% | under_0.5 | 29.3% | over_1.5 | 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.3% | over_2.5 | 12.6% | under_2.5 | 87.4% |
btts
| yes | 21.0% | no | 79.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 29.3% | exact_1 | 36.0% | exact_2 | 22.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.0% | exact_4plus | 3.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.8% | draw | 37.0% | away | 23.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.5% | under_0.5 | 23.5% | over_1.5 | 42.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.5% | over_2.5 | 17.8% | under_2.5 | 82.2% |
btts
| yes | 25.6% | no | 74.4% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 23.6% | H/D | 4.1% | H/A | 1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.5% | D/D | 15.3% | D/A | 9.7% |
| A/H | 3.3% | A/D | 6.3% | A/A | 20.1% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 62.3% | under_7.5 | 37.8% | over_8.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 50.6% | over_9.5 | 37.1% | under_9.5 | 62.9% |
| over_10.5 | 26.4% | under_10.5 | 73.6% | over_11.5 | 17.9% |
| under_11.5 | 82.1% | over_12.5 | 11.5% | under_12.5 | 88.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.7% | under_3.5 | 34.3% | over_4.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.6% | over_5.5 | 34.6% | under_5.5 | 65.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 52.8% | under_3.5 | 47.2% | over_4.5 | 35.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 64.1% | over_5.5 | 22.5% | under_5.5 | 77.5% |
most
| home | 53.2% | draw | 11.0% | away | 35.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.3% | away_+3.5 | 77.7% | home_-1.5 | 42.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 58.0% | home_-0.5 | 53.2% | away_+0.5 | 46.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.3% | away_-0.5 | 35.7% | home_+1.5 | 74.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 25.8% | home_+3.5 | 88.7% | away_-3.5 | 11.3% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 50.0% | under_22.5 | 50.1% | over_24.5 | 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 61.4% | over_26.5 | 28.4% | under_26.5 | 71.6% |
| over_28.5 | 19.8% | under_28.5 | 80.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 61.3% | under_10.5 | 38.7% | over_12.5 | 45.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 54.6% | over_14.5 | 31.3% | under_14.5 | 68.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 46.5% | under_10.5 | 53.5% | over_12.5 | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 69.3% | over_14.5 | 18.7% | under_14.5 | 81.3% |
most
| home | 57.5% | draw | 5.8% | away | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 33.9% | away_+4.5 | 66.1% | home_-2.5 | 45.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 54.5% | home_-0.5 | 57.5% | away_+0.5 | 42.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 63.3% | away_-0.5 | 36.7% | home_+2.5 | 74.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 26.0% | home_+4.5 | 82.8% | away_-4.5 | 17.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 66.9% | under_6.5 | 33.1% | over_7.5 | 55.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 44.9% | over_8.5 | 43.5% | under_8.5 | 56.5% |
| over_9.5 | 33.0% | under_9.5 | 67.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 57.5% | under_3.5 | 42.5% | over_4.5 | 41.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.7% | over_5.5 | 27.8% | under_5.5 | 72.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 52.7% | under_3.5 | 47.3% | over_4.5 | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.5% | over_5.5 | 23.5% | under_5.5 | 76.4% |
most
| home | 47.3% | draw | 12.2% | away | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 25.1% | away_+2.5 | 74.9% | home_-0.5 | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.7% | home_+0.5 | 59.5% | away_-0.5 | 40.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 80.1% | away_-2.5 | 19.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 86.4% | under_2.5 | 13.6% | over_3.5 | 71.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 28.4% | over_4.5 | 53.7% | under_4.5 | 46.3% |
| over_5.5 | 36.1% | under_5.5 | 63.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 64.2% | under_1.5 | 35.8% | over_2.5 | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 62.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 74.9% | under_1.5 | 25.1% | over_2.5 | 50.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 49.7% |
most
| home | 32.2% | draw | 18.2% | away | 49.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.5% | away_+1.5 | 82.5% | home_-0.5 | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.9% | home_+0.5 | 50.3% | away_-0.5 | 49.7% |
| home_+1.5 | 68.3% | away_-1.5 | 31.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 89.8% | under_20.5 | 10.2% | over_22.5 | 82.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 17.9% | over_24.5 | 71.9% | under_24.5 | 28.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 84.3% | under_9.5 | 15.7% | over_11.5 | 69.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 30.7% | over_13.5 | 51.5% | under_13.5 | 48.5% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 86.5% | under_9.5 | 13.5% | over_11.5 | 72.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 27.3% | over_13.5 | 55.6% | under_13.5 | 44.4% |
most
| home | 43.9% | draw | 6.4% | away | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.2% | away_+3.5 | 73.8% | home_-0.5 | 43.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 56.1% | home_+2.5 | 63.0% | away_-2.5 | 37.0% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 30.8% | no | 69.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 11.1% | no | 88.9% |
|---|
away
| yes | 22.2% | no | 77.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Panetolikos predictions · Kalamata predictions · Super League Greece
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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