Cardiff vs Sheffield United: model prediction
ChampionshipDraw or Sheffield United
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Sheffield United at 45.6%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 53.3% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 51.3% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Our engine prices Sheffield United at 46% for 29 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Notably, the model is warmer on Sheffield United than the market (37%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Cardiff, 0 draws and 5 for Sheffield United, averaging 2.2 goals a game. As a promoted side, Cardiff carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Form guide over the last six: Cardiff W0 D4 L2, Sheffield United W2 D2 L2. The engine passes on this one (trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
27.1%-9.5%
27.4%+1.3%
45.6%+8.3%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Cardiff 0 · 0 draws · Sheffield United 5 · 2.2 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Sheffield UnitedLeague averages this season: 2.88 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 79%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 68.6% | Over 7.5 | 55.9% | Over 8.5 | 43.3% | Over 9.5 | 31.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Cardiff | 48.6% | Most: Sheffield United | 38.4% | ||||
| Cardiff Over 4.2 | 42.4% | Sheffield United Over 4.2 | 35.2% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 72.2% | Over 3.5 | 51.6% | Over 4.5 | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Cardiff | 31.5% | Most: Sheffield United | 47.5% | ||
| Cardiff Over 1.8 | 49.8% | Sheffield United Over 1.8 | 61.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Cardiff clean sheet | 23.0% |
|---|---|
| Sheffield United clean sheet | 34.0% |
| Cardiff win to nil | 14.5% |
| Sheffield United win to nil | 25.5% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 27.1% | draw | 27.4% | away | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 54.4% | 12 | 72.6% | X2 | 72.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 37.3% | away | 62.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 51.3% | no | 48.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 23.1% | away | 34.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 14.6% | away | 25.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 16.5% | home_by_2 | 7.4% | home_by_3plus | 3.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 22.8% | away_by_2 | 13.9% | away_by_3plus | 8.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.5% | 0-1 | 10.9% | 0-2 | 8.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 4.2% | 0-4 | 1.5% | 0-5 | 0.4% |
| 1-0 | 7.8% | 1-1 | 13.0% | 1-2 | 9.1% |
| 1-3 | 4.5% | 1-4 | 1.6% | 1-5 | 0.5% |
| 2-0 | 4.5% | 2-1 | 6.7% | 2-2 | 4.9% |
| 2-3 | 2.4% | 2-4 | 0.9% | 2-5 | 0.3% |
| 3-0 | 1.6% | 3-1 | 2.4% | 3-2 | 1.8% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.4% | 4-1 | 0.6% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.1% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.5% | under_0.5 | 8.5% | over_1.5 | 72.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.3% | over_2.5 | 46.7% | under_2.5 | 53.3% |
| over_3.5 | 25.1% | under_3.5 | 74.9% | over_4.5 | 11.4% |
| under_4.5 | 88.6% | over_5.5 | 4.5% | under_5.5 | 95.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.4% | even | 51.6% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 65.8% | under_0.5 | 34.2% | over_1.5 | 29.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.9% | over_2.5 | 9.4% | under_2.5 | 90.6% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 76.9% | under_0.5 | 23.1% | over_1.5 | 43.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.9% | over_2.5 | 18.3% | under_2.5 | 81.7% |
most
| home | 27.1% | draw | 27.4% | away | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.1% | away_+2.5 | 96.9% | home_-1.5 | 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 89.4% | home_-0.5 | 27.1% | away_+0.5 | 72.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 54.4% | away_-0.5 | 45.6% | home_+1.5 | 77.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.8% | home_+2.5 | 91.1% | away_-2.5 | 8.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.5% | exact_1 | 18.8% | exact_2 | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.5% | exact_4 | 13.7% | exact_5 | 7.0% |
| exact_6 | 2.9% | exact_7plus | 1.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 27.0% | draw | 42.4% | away | 30.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.2% | under_0.5 | 30.8% | over_1.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.0% | over_2.5 | 11.6% | under_2.5 | 88.4% |
btts
| yes | 19.8% | no | 80.2% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 30.8% | exact_1 | 36.3% | exact_2 | 21.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.4% | exact_4plus | 3.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 29.2% | draw | 37.8% | away | 33.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.1% | under_0.5 | 23.9% | over_1.5 | 41.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.1% | over_2.5 | 17.4% | under_2.5 | 82.6% |
btts
| yes | 26.1% | no | 73.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 19.7% | H/D | 5.1% | H/A | 2.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 12.4% | D/D | 16.0% | D/A | 14.0% |
| A/H | 2.0% | A/D | 5.1% | A/A | 23.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 81.0% | under_7.5 | 19.0% | over_8.5 | 71.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 28.8% | over_9.5 | 60.1% | under_9.5 | 39.9% |
| over_10.5 | 48.5% | under_10.5 | 51.5% | over_11.5 | 37.4% |
| under_11.5 | 62.6% | over_12.5 | 27.6% | under_12.5 | 72.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 79.8% | under_3.5 | 20.2% | over_4.5 | 66.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 33.8% | over_5.5 | 51.5% | under_5.5 | 48.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 66.3% | under_3.5 | 33.8% | over_4.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.5% | over_5.5 | 34.1% | under_5.5 | 65.9% |
most
| home | 56.4% | draw | 10.1% | away | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.6% | away_+3.5 | 73.4% | home_-1.5 | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 54.1% | home_-0.5 | 56.4% | away_+0.5 | 43.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.5% | away_-0.5 | 33.5% | home_+1.5 | 75.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.5% | home_+3.5 | 88.8% | away_-3.5 | 11.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 61.8% | under_22.5 | 38.2% | over_24.5 | 49.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.7% | over_26.5 | 37.2% | under_26.5 | 62.8% |
| over_28.5 | 26.4% | under_28.5 | 73.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 71.8% | under_10.5 | 28.2% | over_12.5 | 55.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 44.7% | over_14.5 | 39.0% | under_14.5 | 61.1% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 53.7% | under_10.5 | 46.3% | over_12.5 | 35.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 64.3% | over_14.5 | 21.3% | under_14.5 | 78.7% |
most
| home | 60.6% | draw | 6.0% | away | 33.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 35.6% | away_+4.5 | 64.4% | home_-2.5 | 48.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 52.0% | home_-0.5 | 60.6% | away_+0.5 | 39.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.6% | away_-0.5 | 33.4% | home_+2.5 | 77.3% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.7% | home_+4.5 | 85.7% | away_-4.5 | 14.3% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 68.6% | under_6.5 | 31.4% | over_7.5 | 55.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 44.1% | over_8.5 | 43.3% | under_8.5 | 56.7% |
| over_9.5 | 31.8% | under_9.5 | 68.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 60.1% | under_3.5 | 39.9% | over_4.5 | 42.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 57.6% | over_5.5 | 27.5% | under_5.5 | 72.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 53.0% | under_3.5 | 47.0% | over_4.5 | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 64.8% | over_5.5 | 21.3% | under_5.5 | 78.7% |
most
| home | 48.6% | draw | 13.0% | away | 38.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 24.6% | away_+2.5 | 75.4% | home_-0.5 | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 51.4% | home_+0.5 | 61.6% | away_-0.5 | 38.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 82.9% | away_-2.5 | 17.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 72.2% | under_2.5 | 27.8% | over_3.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 48.4% | over_4.5 | 32.2% | under_4.5 | 67.8% |
| over_5.5 | 17.7% | under_5.5 | 82.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 49.8% | under_1.5 | 50.2% | over_2.5 | 23.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 76.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 61.4% | under_1.5 | 38.6% | over_2.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.6% |
most
| home | 31.5% | draw | 21.1% | away | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 15.4% | away_+1.5 | 84.6% | home_-0.5 | 31.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 68.5% | home_+0.5 | 52.5% | away_-0.5 | 47.5% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.5% | away_-1.5 | 27.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 58.5% | under_20.5 | 41.5% | over_22.5 | 42.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 57.3% | over_24.5 | 28.5% | under_24.5 | 71.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 60.6% | under_9.5 | 39.4% | over_11.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 61.8% | over_13.5 | 20.3% | under_13.5 | 79.7% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 65.6% | under_9.5 | 34.4% | over_11.5 | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 56.4% | over_13.5 | 24.6% | under_13.5 | 75.4% |
most
| home | 42.2% | draw | 8.0% | away | 49.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.3% | away_+3.5 | 78.7% | home_-0.5 | 42.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.8% | home_+2.5 | 65.7% | away_-2.5 | 34.3% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 13.7% | no | 86.3% |
|---|
home
| yes | 8.0% | no | 92.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.2% | no | 93.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Cardiff predictions · Sheffield United predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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