Gaziantep vs Rizespor: model prediction
Süper LigOver 1.5 goals
Gaziantep or draw
Draw or Rizespor
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Gaziantep at 41.8%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 54.3% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 58.0% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Expect a tight one: the model splits Gaziantep and Rizespor almost evenly, Gaziantep marginally on top at 42%. Notably, the model is warmer on Gaziantep than the market (38%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. Totals sit close to the fence: 54% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 58%. Form guide over the last six: Gaziantep W1 D1 L4, Rizespor W2 D1 L3. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Gaziantep, 1 draws and 3 for Rizespor, averaging 2.8 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.023 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
41.8%+3.8%
26.0%+0.0%
32.2%-3.9%
conservative EV -0.023 <= 0
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Gaziantep 1 · 1 draws · Rizespor 3 · 2.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Gaziantep
RizesporBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 74.7% | Over 7.5 | 63.2% | Over 8.5 | 50.9% | Over 9.5 | 39.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Gaziantep | 55.6% | Most: Rizespor | 32.4% | ||||
| Gaziantep Over 4.2 | 52.4% | Rizespor Over 4.2 | 35.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 83.9% | Over 3.5 | 67.7% | Over 4.5 | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Gaziantep | 31.8% | Most: Rizespor | 49.4% | ||
| Gaziantep Over 1.8 | 61.0% | Rizespor Over 1.8 | 72.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Gaziantep clean sheet | 26.6% |
|---|---|
| Rizespor clean sheet | 21.6% |
| Gaziantep win to nil | 20.3% |
| Rizespor win to nil | 15.2% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 41.8% | draw | 26.0% | away | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 67.8% | 12 | 74.0% | X2 | 58.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 56.5% | away | 43.5% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 58.0% | no | 42.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 26.8% | away | 21.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 20.4% | away | 15.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 20.8% | home_by_2 | 12.7% | home_by_3plus | 8.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 17.8% | away_by_2 | 9.4% | away_by_3plus | 5.0% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.4% | 0-1 | 7.0% | 0-2 | 5.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.2% | 0-4 | 0.7% | 0-5 | 0.2% |
| 1-0 | 8.3% | 1-1 | 12.3% | 1-2 | 7.7% |
| 1-3 | 3.4% | 1-4 | 1.1% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 6.8% | 2-1 | 9.0% | 2-2 | 5.9% |
| 2-3 | 2.6% | 2-4 | 0.9% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 3.5% | 3-1 | 4.6% | 3-2 | 3.0% |
| 3-3 | 1.3% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.3% | 4-1 | 1.8% | 4-2 | 1.2% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.5% | 5-2 | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.6% | under_0.5 | 6.4% | over_1.5 | 78.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 21.7% | over_2.5 | 54.3% | under_2.5 | 45.7% |
| over_3.5 | 31.9% | under_3.5 | 68.1% | over_4.5 | 16.0% |
| under_4.5 | 84.0% | over_5.5 | 7.0% | under_5.5 | 93.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 78.4% | under_0.5 | 21.6% | over_1.5 | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.7% | over_2.5 | 19.9% | under_2.5 | 80.1% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 73.2% | under_0.5 | 26.8% | over_1.5 | 38.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.0% | over_2.5 | 14.7% | under_2.5 | 85.3% |
most
| home | 41.8% | draw | 26.0% | away | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 8.3% | away_+2.5 | 91.7% | home_-1.5 | 21.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 79.0% | home_-0.5 | 41.8% | away_+0.5 | 58.2% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.8% | away_-0.5 | 32.2% | home_+1.5 | 85.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 14.4% | home_+2.5 | 95.0% | away_-2.5 | 5.0% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.4% | exact_1 | 15.3% | exact_2 | 24.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 15.9% | exact_5 | 9.1% |
| exact_6 | 4.3% | exact_7plus | 2.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 29.1% | draw | 43.8% | away | 27.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.2% | under_0.5 | 32.8% | over_1.5 | 30.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.4% | over_2.5 | 10.3% | under_2.5 | 89.7% |
btts
| yes | 18.3% | no | 81.8% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 32.8% | exact_1 | 36.6% | exact_2 | 20.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.6% | exact_4plus | 2.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 38.3% | draw | 33.6% | away | 28.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 82.1% | under_0.5 | 17.9% | over_1.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 48.7% | over_2.5 | 24.8% | under_2.5 | 75.2% |
btts
| yes | 33.0% | no | 67.1% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 22.4% | H/D | 4.7% | H/A | 2.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 16.8% | D/D | 14.7% | D/A | 12.3% |
| A/H | 3.2% | A/D | 5.6% | A/A | 18.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 70.9% | under_7.5 | 29.1% | over_8.5 | 59.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 40.9% | over_9.5 | 46.9% | under_9.5 | 53.1% |
| over_10.5 | 35.4% | under_10.5 | 64.6% | over_11.5 | 25.5% |
| under_11.5 | 74.5% | over_12.5 | 17.5% | under_12.5 | 82.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.5% | under_3.5 | 30.5% | over_4.5 | 53.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.4% | over_5.5 | 38.4% | under_5.5 | 61.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 61.9% | under_3.5 | 38.1% | over_4.5 | 45.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.9% | over_5.5 | 30.3% | under_5.5 | 69.7% |
most
| home | 50.1% | draw | 10.8% | away | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.8% | away_+3.5 | 79.2% | home_-1.5 | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 60.7% | home_-0.5 | 50.1% | away_+0.5 | 49.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.0% | away_-0.5 | 39.0% | home_+1.5 | 71.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 29.0% | home_+3.5 | 86.4% | away_-3.5 | 13.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 65.1% | under_22.5 | 34.9% | over_24.5 | 53.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 46.9% | over_26.5 | 41.2% | under_26.5 | 58.8% |
| over_28.5 | 30.2% | under_28.5 | 69.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.0% | under_10.5 | 26.0% | over_12.5 | 58.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.6% | over_14.5 | 42.5% | under_14.5 | 57.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 55.4% | under_10.5 | 44.6% | over_12.5 | 37.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 62.2% | over_14.5 | 23.4% | under_14.5 | 76.6% |
most
| home | 61.3% | draw | 5.7% | away | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.2% | away_+4.5 | 62.8% | home_-2.5 | 49.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.8% | home_-0.5 | 61.3% | away_+0.5 | 38.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 67.1% | away_-0.5 | 32.9% | home_+2.5 | 77.3% |
| away_-2.5 | 22.7% | home_+4.5 | 85.5% | away_-4.5 | 14.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 74.7% | under_6.5 | 25.3% | over_7.5 | 63.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 36.9% | over_8.5 | 50.9% | under_8.5 | 49.1% |
| over_9.5 | 39.2% | under_9.5 | 60.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 68.9% | under_3.5 | 31.1% | over_4.5 | 52.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.6% | over_5.5 | 36.9% | under_5.5 | 63.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 53.3% | under_3.5 | 46.7% | over_4.5 | 35.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 64.4% | over_5.5 | 21.7% | under_5.5 | 78.3% |
most
| home | 55.6% | draw | 12.0% | away | 32.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 31.5% | away_+2.5 | 68.5% | home_-0.5 | 55.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 44.4% | home_+0.5 | 67.6% | away_-0.5 | 32.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 86.0% | away_-2.5 | 14.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 83.9% | under_2.5 | 16.1% | over_3.5 | 67.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 32.4% | over_4.5 | 48.9% | under_4.5 | 51.1% |
| over_5.5 | 31.7% | under_5.5 | 68.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 61.0% | under_1.5 | 39.0% | over_2.5 | 34.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 66.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 72.3% | under_1.5 | 27.7% | over_2.5 | 46.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 53.1% |
most
| home | 31.9% | draw | 18.7% | away | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 17.0% | away_+1.5 | 83.0% | home_-0.5 | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 68.2% | home_+0.5 | 50.6% | away_-0.5 | 49.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 69.0% | away_-1.5 | 31.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 90.3% | under_20.5 | 9.7% | over_22.5 | 81.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 18.2% | over_24.5 | 70.3% | under_24.5 | 29.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 82.3% | under_9.5 | 17.7% | over_11.5 | 64.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 35.6% | over_13.5 | 43.9% | under_13.5 | 56.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 89.7% | under_9.5 | 10.3% | over_11.5 | 76.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 23.6% | over_13.5 | 58.1% | under_13.5 | 41.9% |
most
| home | 36.6% | draw | 6.9% | away | 56.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 18.9% | away_+3.5 | 81.1% | home_-0.5 | 36.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 63.4% | home_+2.5 | 57.9% | away_-2.5 | 42.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 13.4% | no | 86.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.6% | no | 94.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 8.3% | no | 91.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Gaziantep predictions · Rizespor predictions · Süper Lig
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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