Galatasaray vs Goztep: model prediction
Süper LigGalatasaray or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Galatasaray at 63.9%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 58.9% and it landed (5 goals). We called Yes at 53.8% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Galatasaray go into this Süper Lig meeting with Goztep on 29 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 64%. The numbers that frame it: • The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Galatasaray at 72%. Caution noted. • Totals sit close to the fence: 59% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 54%. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 5 wins for Galatasaray, 0 draws and 0 for Goztep, averaging 3.6 goals a game. • The run in: Galatasaray arrive W3 D1 L2, Goztep W2 D2 L2. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
63.9%-7.6%
20.8%+2.4%
15.3%+5.2%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10)
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Galatasaray 5 · 0 draws · Goztep 0 · 3.6 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Galatasaray
GoztepBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 78.4% | Over 7.5 | 67.7% | Over 8.5 | 56.0% | Over 9.5 | 44.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Galatasaray | 65.9% | Most: Goztep | 23.7% | ||||
| Galatasaray Over 4.2 | 62.5% | Goztep Over 4.2 | 31.2% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 82.2% | Over 3.5 | 65.1% | Over 4.5 | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Galatasaray | 31.7% | Most: Goztep | 49.2% | ||
| Galatasaray Over 1.8 | 59.2% | Goztep Over 1.8 | 70.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Galatasaray clean sheet | 38.4% |
|---|---|
| Goztep clean sheet | 12.1% |
| Galatasaray win to nil | 33.2% |
| Goztep win to nil | 6.9% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 63.9% | draw | 20.8% | away | 15.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 84.7% | 12 | 79.2% | X2 | 36.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 80.7% | away | 19.3% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 53.8% | no | 46.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 39.2% | away | 12.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 34.0% | away | 6.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.2% | home_by_2 | 19.5% | home_by_3plus | 21.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 10.1% | away_by_2 | 3.9% | away_by_3plus | 1.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.2% | 0-1 | 4.0% | 0-2 | 2.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.7% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 9.5% | 1-1 | 9.8% | 1-2 | 4.4% |
| 1-3 | 1.4% | 1-4 | 0.3% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.5% | 2-1 | 9.9% | 2-2 | 4.6% |
| 2-3 | 1.5% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 7.5% | 3-1 | 7.0% | 3-2 | 3.3% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 4.0% | 4-1 | 3.7% | 4-2 | 1.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.7% | 5-1 | 1.6% | 5-2 | 0.7% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 2.2% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.8% | under_0.5 | 5.2% | over_1.5 | 81.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 18.7% | over_2.5 | 58.9% | under_2.5 | 41.1% |
| over_3.5 | 36.5% | under_3.5 | 63.5% | over_4.5 | 19.4% |
| under_4.5 | 80.6% | over_5.5 | 9.0% | under_5.5 | 91.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 87.9% | under_0.5 | 12.1% | over_1.5 | 62.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 37.6% | over_2.5 | 35.5% | under_2.5 | 64.5% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 60.8% | under_0.5 | 39.2% | over_1.5 | 24.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 75.9% | over_2.5 | 6.9% | under_2.5 | 93.1% |
most
| home | 63.9% | draw | 20.8% | away | 15.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 21.3% | away_+2.5 | 78.7% | home_-1.5 | 40.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.3% | home_-0.5 | 63.9% | away_+0.5 | 36.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 84.7% | away_-0.5 | 15.3% | home_+1.5 | 94.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 5.2% | home_+2.5 | 98.7% | away_-2.5 | 1.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.2% | exact_1 | 13.5% | exact_2 | 22.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 17.1% | exact_5 | 10.4% |
| exact_6 | 5.3% | exact_7plus | 3.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 49.0% | draw | 38.2% | away | 12.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 71.0% | under_0.5 | 29.0% | over_1.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.9% | over_2.5 | 12.9% | under_2.5 | 87.1% |
btts
| yes | 16.6% | no | 83.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 29.0% | exact_1 | 35.9% | exact_2 | 22.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 9.2% | exact_4plus | 3.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 55.6% | draw | 28.9% | away | 15.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 84.5% | under_0.5 | 15.5% | over_1.5 | 55.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 44.4% | over_2.5 | 28.7% | under_2.5 | 71.3% |
btts
| yes | 30.9% | no | 69.1% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 43.8% | H/D | 4.1% | H/A | 1.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 21.3% | D/D | 11.0% | D/A | 5.9% |
| A/H | 3.1% | A/D | 3.4% | A/A | 6.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 70.0% | under_7.5 | 30.0% | over_8.5 | 58.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 41.9% | over_9.5 | 45.8% | under_9.5 | 54.2% |
| over_10.5 | 34.4% | under_10.5 | 65.6% | over_11.5 | 24.6% |
| under_11.5 | 75.4% | over_12.5 | 16.8% | under_12.5 | 83.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.2% | under_3.5 | 25.9% | over_4.5 | 59.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.8% | over_5.5 | 44.2% | under_5.5 | 55.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.3% | under_3.5 | 45.7% | over_4.5 | 37.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 62.9% | over_5.5 | 23.2% | under_5.5 | 76.8% |
most
| home | 59.2% | draw | 10.4% | away | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.7% | away_+3.5 | 72.3% | home_-1.5 | 48.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 51.8% | home_-0.5 | 59.2% | away_+0.5 | 40.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.5% | away_-0.5 | 30.5% | home_+1.5 | 78.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.5% | home_+3.5 | 91.0% | away_-3.5 | 9.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 69.6% | under_22.5 | 30.4% | over_24.5 | 58.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 41.9% | over_26.5 | 46.1% | under_26.5 | 53.9% |
| over_28.5 | 34.6% | under_28.5 | 65.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 80.4% | under_10.5 | 19.6% | over_12.5 | 66.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 33.2% | over_14.5 | 51.5% | under_14.5 | 48.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 52.9% | under_10.5 | 47.1% | over_12.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 64.6% | over_14.5 | 21.4% | under_14.5 | 78.6% |
most
| home | 68.9% | draw | 5.1% | away | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 45.4% | away_+4.5 | 54.6% | home_-2.5 | 57.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 42.5% | home_-0.5 | 68.9% | away_+0.5 | 31.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 74.0% | away_-0.5 | 26.0% | home_+2.5 | 82.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 17.2% | home_+4.5 | 89.4% | away_-4.5 | 10.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 78.4% | under_6.5 | 21.6% | over_7.5 | 67.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 32.3% | over_8.5 | 56.0% | under_8.5 | 44.0% |
| over_9.5 | 44.3% | under_9.5 | 55.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.0% | under_3.5 | 23.0% | over_4.5 | 62.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 37.5% | over_5.5 | 47.3% | under_5.5 | 52.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 48.7% | under_3.5 | 51.3% | over_4.5 | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 68.8% | over_5.5 | 18.2% | under_5.5 | 81.8% |
most
| home | 65.9% | draw | 10.5% | away | 23.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 42.1% | away_+2.5 | 57.9% | home_-0.5 | 65.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 34.1% | home_+0.5 | 76.3% | away_-0.5 | 23.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 90.9% | away_-2.5 | 9.1% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 82.2% | under_2.5 | 17.8% | over_3.5 | 65.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 34.8% | over_4.5 | 46.1% | under_4.5 | 53.9% |
| over_5.5 | 29.1% | under_5.5 | 70.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 59.2% | under_1.5 | 40.8% | over_2.5 | 32.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 67.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 70.7% | under_1.5 | 29.3% | over_2.5 | 44.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 55.1% |
most
| home | 31.7% | draw | 19.1% | away | 49.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 16.7% | away_+1.5 | 83.3% | home_-0.5 | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 68.3% | home_+0.5 | 50.8% | away_-0.5 | 49.2% |
| home_+1.5 | 69.4% | away_-1.5 | 30.6% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 81.1% | under_20.5 | 18.9% | over_22.5 | 68.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 31.3% | over_24.5 | 54.2% | under_24.5 | 45.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 68.0% | under_9.5 | 32.0% | over_11.5 | 45.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 54.2% | over_13.5 | 26.0% | under_13.5 | 74.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 87.1% | under_9.5 | 13.0% | over_11.5 | 71.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 28.2% | over_13.5 | 52.3% | under_13.5 | 47.7% |
most
| home | 28.0% | draw | 6.7% | away | 65.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 12.6% | away_+3.5 | 87.4% | home_-0.5 | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 72.0% | home_+2.5 | 49.4% | away_-2.5 | 50.6% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 27.0% | no | 73.1% |
|---|
home
| yes | 9.9% | no | 90.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 19.0% | no | 81.1% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Galatasaray predictions · Goztep predictions · Süper Lig
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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