Lazio vs Genoa prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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Lazio vs Genoa: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Serie A
Lazio

WLLWW

Full time1-0Sun, 30 Aug 202619:45UK29°C · Clear
Genoa

DDLLL

Model’s top convictions

74%

Lazio or draw

66%

Over 1.5 goals

61%

Under 2.5 goals

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Lazio 1-0 Genoa
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Lazio at 45.6%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 61.0% and it landed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 66.3% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 81.0% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 54.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 57.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 74.4% and it missed. We called Under 9.5 at 59.8% and it landed (6 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 60.5% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 53.7% and it landed (23 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 55.4% and it missed (3 shots on target). We called No at 72.5% and it landed.

Match data Lazio Genoa
Goals, 1st half 1 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 15 8
Shots, 1st half 6 1
Shots, 2nd half 9 7
Shots on target 2 1
Corners 4 2
Yellow cards 1 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 18 6
Expected goals (xG) 2.11 0.74

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
LazioWin probability
45.6%
Top 3 convictions

Lazio or draw74.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.35
Over 1.5 goals66.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.51
Under 2.5 goals61.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.64

Model read

▾

Lazio versus Genoa on 30 August 2026 tilts towards Lazio in our numbers (46%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. The numbers that frame it: • Bookmakers see it the same way, 48% on Lazio, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. • The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 39% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 45%. • For shots markets, Valentín Castellanos is the obvious watch at 1.3 on target per 90 in recent data. • The forecast adds a wrinkle: 29 degrees of heat. Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for Lazio against W0 D2 L4 for Genoa. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 5 wins for Lazio, 0 draws and 0 for Genoa at 2.8 goals per match. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.21).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners40.1%@ 2.49
Over 2.5 goals39.0%@ 2.56
Over 10.5 corners31.4%@ 3.18
Medium risk

Not both teams to score54.9%@ 1.82
Draw or Genoa54.4%@ 1.84
Over 8.5 corners49.8%@ 2.01
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.6%@ 7.34
1-0 correct score13.2%@ 7.60
0-0 correct score11.3%@ 8.89

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Lazio

45.6%-2.4%

Draw

28.5%-2.0%

Genoa

25.8%+4.3%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.21)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.566.3%

Strong chance

Over 2.539.0%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes45.1%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.549.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.540.1%

Toss-up

Over 10.531.4%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.0%

Low chance

Most cornersLazio56.8%Genoa32.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.558.3%

Good chance

Over 24.546.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.534.9%

Toss-up

Over 28.524.9%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.566.3%2.539.0%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.566.3%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

LazioWLLWW
GenoaDDLLL

Last 5 meetings: Lazio 5 · 0 draws · Genoa 0 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-01-30Lazio 3-2 Genoa
2025-09-29Genoa 0-3 Lazio
2025-04-23Genoa 0-2 Lazio
2024-10-27Lazio 3-0 Genoa
2024-04-19Genoa 0-1 Lazio

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

LazioGenoa
League position#9 of 20#17 of 20
Record W-D-L1-0-00-0-1
Current streakW1L1
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Valentín CastellanosLazio · key player
To score25.2%

@ 3.97

1+ on target67.7%

@ 1.48

2+ shots81.2%

@ 1.23

Shots/90 3.6SoT/90 1.32Goals/90 0.34
Lorenzo ColomboGenoa · key player
To score17.1%

@ 5.85

1+ on target50.7%

@ 1.97

2+ shots51.7%

@ 1.93

Shots/90 2.5SoT/90 1.02Goals/90 0.27
PedroLazio · in form
To score22.7%

@ 4.41

1+ on target38.2%

@ 2.62

2+ shots28.3%

@ 3.53

Shots/90 2.73SoT/90 1.25Goals/90 0.67
Caleb EkubanGenoa · in form
To score9.9%

@ 10.10

1+ on target28.4%

@ 3.52

2+ shots24.9%

@ 4.02

Shots/90 2.85SoT/90 0.99Goals/90 0.31
Loum TchaounaLazio · in form
To score4.5%

@ 22.22

1+ on target30.5%

@ 3.28

2+ shots26.4%

@ 3.79

Shots/90 3.24SoT/90 1.18Goals/90 0.15
Andrea PinamontiGenoa · in form
To score22.8%

@ 4.39

1+ on target56.4%

@ 1.77

2+ shots64.6%

@ 1.55

Shots/90 2.47SoT/90 0.93Goals/90 0.29

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Lazio win2.002.19
Draw3.103.50
Genoa win4.333.87
Over 2.5 goals2.382.56
Under 2.5 goals1.571.64

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Lazio win2.25
Draw3.40
Genoa win3.82
Both teams to score2.22

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.13
Over 1.5 goals1.51
Over 2.5 goals2.57
Over 3.5 goals5.26
Lazio most2.25
Genoa most3.82

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.61
Over 8.5 corners1.96
Over 9.5 corners2.49
Over 10.5 corners3.26
Lazio most1.76
Genoa most3.04

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.27
Over 3.5 cards1.65
Over 4.5 cards2.41
Over 5.5 cards3.92
Lazio most2.56
Genoa most2.43

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.50
Over 7.5 SoT1.81
Over 8.5 SoT2.26
Over 9.5 SoT2.94
Lazio most1.82
Genoa most2.98

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.71
Over 24.5 shots2.16
Over 26.5 shots2.87
Over 28.5 shots4.02
Lazio most1.62
Genoa most3.06

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.28
Over 22.5 fouls1.50
Over 24.5 fouls1.86
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.8% Over 7.5 55.4% Over 8.5 44.2% Over 9.5 34.0%
Most: Lazio 55.0% Most: Genoa 33.5%
Lazio Over 4.2 46.9% Genoa Over 4.2 31.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 78.6% Over 3.5 60.5% Over 4.5 41.5%
Most: Lazio 39.0% Most: Genoa 41.2%
Lazio Over 1.8 61.0% Genoa Over 1.8 62.5%

Lazio: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Valentín Castellanos 3.6 1.32 0.34 67.7% 81.2% 25.2%
Pedro 2.73 1.25 0.67 38.2% 28.3% 22.7%
Loum Tchaouna 3.24 1.18 0.15 30.5% 26.4% 4.5%
Gustav Isaksen 2.4 0.96 0.19 46.6% 46.5% 11.7%
Tijjani Noslin 2.65 0.95 0.3 28.3% 23.8% 10.0%

Genoa: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Lorenzo Colombo 2.5 1.02 0.27 50.7% 51.7% 17.1%
Caleb Ekuban 2.85 0.99 0.31 28.4% 24.9% 9.9%
Andrea Pinamonti 2.47 0.93 0.29 56.4% 64.6% 22.8%
Junior Messias 2.27 0.69 0.21 24.9% 24.3% 8.3%
Ruslan Malinovskiy 2.18 0.63 0.21 35.4% 44.6% 13.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Lazio clean sheet 39.0%
Genoa clean sheet 27.1%
Lazio win to nil 27.7%
Genoa win to nil 15.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 44.4% draw 29.4% away 26.2%
double_chance
1X 73.8% 12 70.6% X2 55.6%
dnb
home 62.9% away 37.1%
btts
yes 45.1% no 54.9%
clean_sheet
home 39.1% away 27.1%
win_to_nil
home 27.8% away 15.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.6% home_by_2 13.3% home_by_3plus 7.5%
away_by_1 16.8% away_by_2 6.9% away_by_3plus 2.5%
correct_score
0-0 11.3% 0-1 9.3% 0-2 4.7%
0-3 1.5% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 13.2% 1-1 13.6% 1-2 6.1%
1-3 1.9% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.0% 2-1 8.5% 2-2 4.0%
2-3 1.3% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.9% 3-1 3.7% 3-2 1.7%
3-3 0.5% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.3% 4-1 1.2% 4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 88.8% under_0.5 11.3% over_1.5 66.3%
under_1.5 33.7% over_2.5 39.0% under_2.5 61.0%
over_3.5 19.0% under_3.5 81.0% over_4.5 7.8%
under_4.5 92.2% over_5.5 2.7% under_5.5 97.3%
odd_even
odd 48.1% even 51.9%
team_home
over_0.5 72.9% under_0.5 27.1% over_1.5 37.6%
under_1.5 62.5% over_2.5 14.5% under_2.5 85.5%
team_away
over_0.5 60.9% under_0.5 39.1% over_1.5 24.2%
under_1.5 75.8% over_2.5 7.0% under_2.5 93.0%
most
home 44.4% draw 29.4% away 26.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.5% away_+2.5 92.5% home_-1.5 20.8%
away_+1.5 79.2% home_-0.5 44.4% away_+0.5 55.6%
home_+0.5 73.8% away_-0.5 26.2% home_+1.5 90.6%
away_-1.5 9.4% home_+2.5 97.5% away_-2.5 2.5%
total_exact
exact_0 11.3% exact_1 22.5% exact_2 27.3%
exact_3 20.0% exact_4 11.2% exact_5 5.1%
exact_6 1.9% exact_7plus 0.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.5% draw 50.4% away 22.1%
total
over_0.5 57.7% under_0.5 42.3% over_1.5 21.3%
under_1.5 78.7% over_2.5 5.7% under_2.5 94.3%
btts
yes 12.2% no 87.9%
total_exact
exact_0 42.3% exact_1 36.4% exact_2 15.7%
exact_3 4.5% exact_4plus 1.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.6% draw 38.1% away 21.3%
total
over_0.5 74.4% under_0.5 25.6% over_1.5 39.6%
under_1.5 60.4% over_2.5 15.8% under_2.5 84.2%
btts
yes 23.1% no 76.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.6% H/D 3.8% H/A 1.1%
D/H 20.5% D/D 19.2% D/A 10.7%
A/H 2.7% A/D 5.2% A/A 14.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 62.1% under_7.5 37.9% over_8.5 50.9%
under_8.5 49.1% over_9.5 40.2% under_9.5 59.8%
over_10.5 30.7% under_10.5 69.4% over_11.5 22.6%
under_11.5 77.4% over_12.5 16.1% under_12.5 83.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.0% under_3.5 33.0% over_4.5 52.6%
under_4.5 47.4% over_5.5 39.3% under_5.5 60.7%
team_away
over_3.5 49.7% under_3.5 50.3% over_4.5 34.4%
under_4.5 65.6% over_5.5 22.4% under_5.5 77.6%
most
home 57.0% draw 10.1% away 32.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.3% away_+3.5 72.7% home_-1.5 46.4%
away_+1.5 53.6% home_-0.5 57.0% away_+0.5 43.0%
home_+0.5 67.1% away_-0.5 32.9% home_+1.5 76.1%
away_-1.5 23.9% home_+3.5 89.1% away_-3.5 10.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 58.3% under_22.5 41.7% over_24.5 46.3%
under_24.5 53.7% over_26.5 34.9% under_26.5 65.1%
over_28.5 24.9% under_28.5 75.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 69.7% under_10.5 30.3% over_12.5 53.8%
under_12.5 46.2% over_14.5 38.4% under_14.5 61.6%
team_away
over_10.5 49.9% under_10.5 50.1% over_12.5 32.9%
under_12.5 67.1% over_14.5 19.8% under_14.5 80.2%
most
home 61.6% draw 5.7% away 32.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.5% away_+4.5 62.5% home_-2.5 49.5%
away_+2.5 50.5% home_-0.5 61.6% away_+0.5 38.4%
home_+0.5 67.4% away_-0.5 32.6% home_+2.5 77.6%
away_-2.5 22.4% home_+4.5 85.7% away_-4.5 14.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.8% under_6.5 33.2% over_7.5 55.4%
under_7.5 44.6% over_8.5 44.2% under_8.5 55.8%
over_9.5 34.0% under_9.5 66.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 62.1% under_3.5 37.9% over_4.5 46.9%
under_4.5 53.1% over_5.5 33.5% under_5.5 66.5%
team_away
over_3.5 47.0% under_3.5 53.0% over_4.5 31.5%
under_4.5 68.5% over_5.5 19.7% under_5.5 80.3%
most
home 55.0% draw 11.5% away 33.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 32.3% away_+2.5 67.7% home_-0.5 55.0%
away_+0.5 45.0% home_+0.5 66.5% away_-0.5 33.6%
home_+2.5 84.5% away_-2.5 15.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 78.6% under_2.5 21.3% over_3.5 60.5%
under_3.5 39.5% over_4.5 41.5% under_4.5 58.5%
over_5.5 25.5% under_5.5 74.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 61.0% under_1.5 39.0% over_2.5 34.6%
under_2.5 65.4%
team_away
over_1.5 62.5% under_1.5 37.5% over_2.5 36.2%
under_2.5 63.8%
most
home 39.0% draw 19.7% away 41.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 22.0% away_+1.5 78.0% home_-0.5 39.0%
away_+0.5 61.0% home_+0.5 58.8% away_-0.5 41.2%
home_+1.5 76.2% away_-1.5 23.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 78.4% under_20.5 21.6% over_22.5 66.8%
under_22.5 33.2% over_24.5 53.8% under_24.5 46.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 72.7% under_9.5 27.3% over_11.5 54.0%
under_11.5 46.0% over_13.5 35.7% under_13.5 64.3%
team_away
over_9.5 79.2% under_9.5 20.8% over_11.5 62.4%
under_11.5 37.6% over_13.5 44.2% under_13.5 55.8%
most
home 40.6% draw 6.6% away 52.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.0% away_+3.5 77.0% home_-0.5 40.6%
away_+0.5 59.4% home_+2.5 60.5% away_-2.5 39.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 27.5% no 72.5%
home
yes 18.9% no 81.1%
away
yes 10.6% no 89.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Lazio predictions · Genoa predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Serie ALazioGenoaTrack record