Sociedad vs Espanol: model prediction
La LigaOver 1.5 goals
Sociedad or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Sociedad at 51.7%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 53.9% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 56.2% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Sociedad at 52% against Espanol, La Liga, 29 August 2026. The market broadly agrees, pricing Sociedad at 50%. No strong lean on goals (54% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Schedule edge: Espanol have had 4 more days of rest than Sociedad. The run in: Sociedad arrive W0 D3 L3, Espanol W3 D1 L2. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Sociedad, 2 draws and 0 for Espanol at 3.0 goals per match. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.012 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
51.7%+1.2%
24.1%-2.1%
24.3%+0.9%
value_gap +0.012 <= 0.03
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Sociedad 3 · 2 draws · Espanol 0 · 3.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Sociedad
EspanolLeague averages this season: 2.50 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 75.6% | Over 7.5 | 63.9% | Over 8.5 | 51.4% | Over 9.5 | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Sociedad | 63.7% | Most: Espanol | 25.0% | ||||
| Sociedad Over 4.2 | 58.2% | Espanol Over 4.2 | 29.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 84.8% | Over 3.5 | 69.5% | Over 4.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Sociedad | 33.2% | Most: Espanol | 48.6% | ||
| Sociedad Over 1.8 | 63.0% | Espanol Over 1.8 | 72.6% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Sociedad clean sheet | 31.5% |
|---|---|
| Espanol clean sheet | 18.5% |
| Sociedad win to nil | 25.1% |
| Espanol win to nil | 12.0% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 49.4% | draw | 25.2% | away | 25.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 74.6% | 12 | 74.8% | X2 | 50.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 66.1% | away | 33.9% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 56.2% | no | 43.8% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 31.8% | away | 18.5% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 25.3% | away | 12.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.6% | home_by_2 | 15.3% | home_by_3plus | 11.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 15.2% | away_by_2 | 7.1% | away_by_3plus | 3.2% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.4% | 0-1 | 6.2% | 0-2 | 3.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.5% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 9.4% | 1-1 | 11.9% | 1-2 | 6.5% |
| 1-3 | 2.5% | 1-4 | 0.7% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.4% | 2-1 | 9.6% | 2-2 | 5.5% |
| 2-3 | 2.1% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.7% | 3-1 | 5.4% | 3-2 | 3.1% |
| 3-3 | 1.2% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 2.0% | 4-1 | 2.3% | 4-2 | 1.3% |
| 4-3 | 0.5% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.7% | 5-1 | 0.8% | 5-2 | 0.4% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.9% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 11.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.6% | under_0.5 | 6.4% | over_1.5 | 78.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 21.9% | over_2.5 | 53.9% | under_2.5 | 46.1% |
| over_3.5 | 31.6% | under_3.5 | 68.4% | over_4.5 | 15.8% |
| under_4.5 | 84.2% | over_5.5 | 6.9% | under_5.5 | 93.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.7% | even | 51.3% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 81.5% | under_0.5 | 18.5% | over_1.5 | 50.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.7% | over_2.5 | 24.0% | under_2.5 | 76.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 68.2% | under_0.5 | 31.8% | over_1.5 | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.1% | over_2.5 | 11.0% | under_2.5 | 89.0% |
most
| home | 49.4% | draw | 25.2% | away | 25.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 11.6% | away_+2.5 | 88.4% | home_-1.5 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 73.1% | home_-0.5 | 49.4% | away_+0.5 | 50.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 74.6% | away_-0.5 | 25.4% | home_+1.5 | 89.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 10.2% | home_+2.5 | 96.9% | away_-2.5 | 3.2% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.4% | exact_1 | 15.5% | exact_2 | 24.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 15.8% | exact_5 | 9.0% |
| exact_6 | 4.3% | exact_7plus | 2.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 38.7% | draw | 41.6% | away | 19.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.2% | under_0.5 | 30.8% | over_1.5 | 33.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.0% | over_2.5 | 11.6% | under_2.5 | 88.4% |
btts
| yes | 18.6% | no | 81.4% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 30.8% | exact_1 | 36.3% | exact_2 | 21.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.4% | exact_4plus | 3.2% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 37.4% | draw | 34.1% | away | 28.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 81.5% | under_0.5 | 18.5% | over_1.5 | 50.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.8% | over_2.5 | 23.9% | under_2.5 | 76.1% |
btts
| yes | 32.2% | no | 67.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 30.3% | H/D | 5.9% | H/A | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.6% | D/D | 14.2% | D/A | 11.9% |
| A/H | 2.3% | A/D | 4.1% | A/A | 13.3% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 73.6% | under_7.5 | 26.4% | over_8.5 | 62.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 38.0% | over_9.5 | 49.9% | under_9.5 | 50.1% |
| over_10.5 | 38.2% | under_10.5 | 61.8% | over_11.5 | 27.8% |
| under_11.5 | 72.2% | over_12.5 | 19.3% | under_12.5 | 80.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 76.1% | under_3.5 | 23.9% | over_4.5 | 61.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 38.6% | over_5.5 | 46.3% | under_5.5 | 53.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.8% | under_3.5 | 42.2% | over_4.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.6% | over_5.5 | 26.0% | under_5.5 | 74.1% |
most
| home | 58.5% | draw | 10.3% | away | 31.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.3% | away_+3.5 | 72.7% | home_-1.5 | 47.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 52.4% | home_-0.5 | 58.5% | away_+0.5 | 41.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.9% | away_-0.5 | 31.1% | home_+1.5 | 77.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.1% | home_+3.5 | 90.6% | away_-3.5 | 9.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 61.7% | under_22.5 | 38.3% | over_24.5 | 49.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.9% | over_26.5 | 36.9% | under_26.5 | 63.1% |
| over_28.5 | 26.1% | under_28.5 | 73.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.6% | under_10.5 | 25.4% | over_12.5 | 58.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 41.3% | over_14.5 | 42.3% | under_14.5 | 57.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 49.6% | under_10.5 | 50.4% | over_12.5 | 31.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 68.3% | over_14.5 | 18.2% | under_14.5 | 81.8% |
most
| home | 65.7% | draw | 5.7% | away | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 40.6% | away_+4.5 | 59.4% | home_-2.5 | 53.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 46.7% | home_-0.5 | 65.7% | away_+0.5 | 34.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.4% | away_-0.5 | 28.6% | home_+2.5 | 81.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 18.8% | home_+4.5 | 88.6% | away_-4.5 | 11.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 75.6% | under_6.5 | 24.4% | over_7.5 | 63.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 36.1% | over_8.5 | 51.4% | under_8.5 | 48.6% |
| over_9.5 | 39.3% | under_9.5 | 60.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.1% | under_3.5 | 25.9% | over_4.5 | 58.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 41.8% | over_5.5 | 42.2% | under_5.5 | 57.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 47.6% | under_3.5 | 52.4% | over_4.5 | 29.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 70.2% | over_5.5 | 16.8% | under_5.5 | 83.3% |
most
| home | 63.7% | draw | 11.3% | away | 25.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 38.6% | away_+2.5 | 61.4% | home_-0.5 | 63.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 36.3% | home_+0.5 | 75.0% | away_-0.5 | 25.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 90.7% | away_-2.5 | 9.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 84.8% | under_2.5 | 15.2% | over_3.5 | 69.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 30.5% | over_4.5 | 51.6% | under_4.5 | 48.4% |
| over_5.5 | 34.6% | under_5.5 | 65.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 63.0% | under_1.5 | 37.0% | over_2.5 | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 63.3% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 72.6% | under_1.5 | 27.4% | over_2.5 | 48.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 52.0% |
most
| home | 33.2% | draw | 18.2% | away | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 18.5% | away_+1.5 | 81.5% | home_-0.5 | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.8% | home_+0.5 | 51.4% | away_-0.5 | 48.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 69.0% | away_-1.5 | 31.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 82.0% | under_20.5 | 18.0% | over_22.5 | 70.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 29.1% | over_24.5 | 57.8% | under_24.5 | 42.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 77.8% | under_9.5 | 22.2% | over_11.5 | 59.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 40.4% | over_13.5 | 40.4% | under_13.5 | 59.6% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 80.4% | under_9.5 | 19.6% | over_11.5 | 63.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 36.7% | over_13.5 | 44.3% | under_13.5 | 55.7% |
most
| home | 43.8% | draw | 6.9% | away | 49.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.1% | away_+3.5 | 74.9% | home_-0.5 | 43.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 56.2% | home_+2.5 | 64.1% | away_-2.5 | 35.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 14.6% | no | 85.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.9% | no | 95.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 10.1% | no | 89.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Sociedad predictions · Espanol predictions · La Liga
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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