Eldense vs Cadiz: model prediction
Segunda DivisiónOver 1.5 goals
Eldense or draw
Draw or Cadiz
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Eldense at 39.7%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 57.5% and it missed (4 goals). We called No at 51.1% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The probabilities barely separate Eldense and Cadiz on 22 August 2026: Eldense nose ahead at 40%. Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 42%. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 43% with both teams to score at 49%. Eldense are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The recent series reads 1 wins for Eldense, 0 draws and 1 for Cadiz over 2 games, 4.0 goals on average. The run in: Eldense arrive W1 D2 L3, Cadiz W1 D3 L2. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.007 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
39.7%-2.2%
29.0%-2.0%
31.3%+4.2%
conservative EV -0.007 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Eldense 1 · 0 draws · Cadiz 1 · 4.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
CadizBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 69.6% | Over 7.5 | 56.3% | Over 8.5 | 42.9% | Over 9.5 | 30.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Eldense | 60.0% | Most: Cadiz | 27.4% | ||||
| Eldense Over 4.2 | 50.2% | Cadiz Over 4.2 | 26.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 85.2% | Over 3.5 | 69.8% | Over 4.5 | 51.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Eldense | 34.0% | Most: Cadiz | 47.4% | ||
| Eldense Over 1.8 | 64.1% | Cadiz Over 1.8 | 72.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Eldense clean sheet | 33.1% |
|---|---|
| Cadiz clean sheet | 27.9% |
| Eldense win to nil | 23.2% |
| Cadiz win to nil | 18.0% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 39.7% | draw | 29.0% | away | 31.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 68.7% | 12 | 71.0% | X2 | 60.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 55.9% | away | 44.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 48.9% | no | 51.1% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 33.1% | away | 27.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 23.2% | away | 18.0% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 21.7% | home_by_2 | 11.8% | home_by_3plus | 6.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 18.7% | away_by_2 | 8.8% | away_by_3plus | 3.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.9% | 0-1 | 9.6% | 0-2 | 5.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 2.1% | 0-4 | 0.6% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.2% | 1-1 | 13.7% | 1-2 | 7.2% |
| 1-3 | 2.7% | 1-4 | 0.7% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.5% | 2-1 | 8.3% | 2-2 | 4.6% |
| 2-3 | 1.7% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 3.2% | 3-1 | 3.5% | 3-2 | 2.0% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.0% | 4-1 | 1.1% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.3% | 5-1 | 0.3% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.1% | under_0.5 | 9.9% | over_1.5 | 69.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 30.6% | over_2.5 | 42.6% | under_2.5 | 57.5% |
| over_3.5 | 21.8% | under_3.5 | 78.3% | over_4.5 | 9.4% |
| under_4.5 | 90.6% | over_5.5 | 3.5% | under_5.5 | 96.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.3% | even | 51.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 72.1% | under_0.5 | 27.9% | over_1.5 | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.5% | over_2.5 | 13.8% | under_2.5 | 86.2% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 66.9% | under_0.5 | 33.1% | over_1.5 | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.7% | over_2.5 | 10.1% | under_2.5 | 89.9% |
most
| home | 39.7% | draw | 29.0% | away | 31.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 6.3% | away_+2.5 | 93.7% | home_-1.5 | 18.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 82.0% | home_-0.5 | 39.7% | away_+0.5 | 60.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.7% | away_-0.5 | 31.3% | home_+1.5 | 87.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 12.7% | home_+2.5 | 96.1% | away_-2.5 | 3.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.9% | exact_1 | 20.7% | exact_2 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.8% | exact_4 | 12.4% | exact_5 | 5.9% |
| exact_6 | 2.3% | exact_7plus | 1.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 30.9% | draw | 42.8% | away | 26.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 68.6% | under_0.5 | 31.4% | over_1.5 | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 67.7% | over_2.5 | 11.2% | under_2.5 | 88.8% |
btts
| yes | 19.3% | no | 80.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 31.4% | exact_1 | 36.4% | exact_2 | 21.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 8.2% | exact_4plus | 3.0% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 35.6% | draw | 40.6% | away | 23.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 71.5% | under_0.5 | 28.5% | over_1.5 | 35.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.3% | over_2.5 | 13.3% | under_2.5 | 86.7% |
btts
| yes | 21.2% | no | 78.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 25.1% | H/D | 4.5% | H/A | 1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.2% | D/D | 17.4% | D/A | 10.2% |
| A/H | 2.3% | A/D | 5.4% | A/A | 18.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 69.1% | under_7.5 | 30.9% | over_8.5 | 56.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 43.2% | over_9.5 | 44.4% | under_9.5 | 55.6% |
| over_10.5 | 32.9% | under_10.5 | 67.1% | over_11.5 | 23.1% |
| under_11.5 | 76.9% | over_12.5 | 15.4% | under_12.5 | 84.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 73.8% | under_3.5 | 26.2% | over_4.5 | 58.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 41.6% | over_5.5 | 42.9% | under_5.5 | 57.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.1% | under_3.5 | 45.9% | over_4.5 | 36.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.5% | over_5.5 | 22.5% | under_5.5 | 77.5% |
most
| home | 58.9% | draw | 10.7% | away | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.4% | away_+3.5 | 73.6% | home_-1.5 | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 52.6% | home_-0.5 | 58.9% | away_+0.5 | 41.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.6% | away_-0.5 | 30.4% | home_+1.5 | 78.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.1% | home_+3.5 | 91.5% | away_-3.5 | 8.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 61.8% | under_22.5 | 38.2% | over_24.5 | 48.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 51.2% | over_26.5 | 36.3% | under_26.5 | 63.7% |
| over_28.5 | 25.3% | under_28.5 | 74.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 76.9% | under_10.5 | 23.1% | over_12.5 | 61.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 38.9% | over_14.5 | 44.3% | under_14.5 | 55.7% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 46.8% | under_10.5 | 53.2% | over_12.5 | 28.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 71.3% | over_14.5 | 15.6% | under_14.5 | 84.4% |
most
| home | 69.3% | draw | 5.6% | away | 25.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 43.8% | away_+4.5 | 56.2% | home_-2.5 | 56.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 43.1% | home_-0.5 | 69.3% | away_+0.5 | 30.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 74.9% | away_-0.5 | 25.2% | home_+2.5 | 84.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 15.8% | home_+4.5 | 90.8% | away_-4.5 | 9.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 69.6% | under_6.5 | 30.4% | over_7.5 | 56.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 43.7% | over_8.5 | 42.9% | under_8.5 | 57.1% |
| over_9.5 | 30.8% | under_9.5 | 69.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 68.0% | under_3.5 | 32.0% | over_4.5 | 50.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 49.8% | over_5.5 | 33.6% | under_5.5 | 66.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 44.9% | under_3.5 | 55.1% | over_4.5 | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 73.2% | over_5.5 | 14.2% | under_5.5 | 85.8% |
most
| home | 60.0% | draw | 12.6% | away | 27.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 33.1% | away_+2.5 | 66.9% | home_-0.5 | 60.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 40.0% | home_+0.5 | 72.6% | away_-0.5 | 27.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 90.2% | away_-2.5 | 9.8% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 85.2% | under_2.5 | 14.8% | over_3.5 | 69.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 30.2% | over_4.5 | 51.4% | under_4.5 | 48.6% |
| over_5.5 | 34.0% | under_5.5 | 66.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 64.1% | under_1.5 | 35.9% | over_2.5 | 37.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 62.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 72.5% | under_1.5 | 27.5% | over_2.5 | 47.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 52.8% |
most
| home | 34.0% | draw | 18.6% | away | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 18.7% | away_+1.5 | 81.3% | home_-0.5 | 34.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.0% | home_+0.5 | 52.6% | away_-0.5 | 47.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.5% | away_-1.5 | 29.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 81.6% | under_20.5 | 18.4% | over_22.5 | 70.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 29.5% | over_24.5 | 57.5% | under_24.5 | 42.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 80.3% | under_9.5 | 19.8% | over_11.5 | 63.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 36.8% | over_13.5 | 44.4% | under_13.5 | 55.6% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 77.3% | under_9.5 | 22.7% | over_11.5 | 59.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 40.9% | over_13.5 | 40.1% | under_13.5 | 59.9% |
most
| home | 49.6% | draw | 6.8% | away | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 30.1% | away_+3.5 | 69.9% | home_-0.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.4% | home_+2.5 | 69.3% | away_-2.5 | 30.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 13.8% | no | 86.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.1% | no | 94.9% |
|---|
away
| yes | 9.2% | no | 90.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Eldense predictions · Cadiz predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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