Cambuur vs Feyenoord: model prediction
EredivisieOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Feyenoord
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Feyenoord at 58.0%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 61.1% and it landed (7 goals). We called Yes at 59.0% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
The numbers leave little room for romance here: Feyenoord at 58% against Cambuur, Eredivisie, 23 August 2026. The numbers that frame it: • The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Feyenoord at 76%. Caution noted. • Everything in the shot data points to goals, 61% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 59%. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Cambuur, 0 draws and 5 for Feyenoord, averaging 3.4 goals a game. • As a promoted side, Cambuur carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Form guide over the last six: Cambuur W1 D0 L5, Feyenoord W4 D2 L0. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.08).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
19.9%+12.2%
22.1%+6.2%
58.0%-18.4%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.08)
Goals markets
High probability
Strong chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Cambuur 0 · 0 draws · Feyenoord 5 · 3.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Cambuur
FeyenoordBookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 82.3% | Over 7.5 | 73.1% | Over 8.5 | 62.6% | Over 9.5 | 51.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Cambuur | 40.4% | Most: Feyenoord | 48.5% | ||||
| Cambuur Over 4.2 | 49.8% | Feyenoord Over 4.2 | 55.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 52.6% | Over 3.5 | 30.5% | Over 4.5 | 15.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Cambuur | 32.2% | Most: Feyenoord | 42.7% | ||
| Cambuur Over 1.8 | 36.4% | Feyenoord Over 1.8 | 44.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Cambuur clean sheet | 13.1% |
|---|---|
| Feyenoord clean sheet | 32.1% |
| Cambuur win to nil | 8.3% |
| Feyenoord win to nil | 27.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 19.9% | draw | 22.1% | away | 58.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 42.0% | 12 | 77.9% | X2 | 80.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 25.5% | away | 74.5% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 59.0% | no | 41.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 13.1% | away | 32.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 8.3% | away | 27.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 12.2% | home_by_2 | 5.4% | home_by_3plus | 2.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 22.6% | away_by_2 | 17.8% | away_by_3plus | 17.6% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.8% | 0-1 | 8.2% | 0-2 | 8.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 6.0% | 0-4 | 3.1% | 0-5 | 1.2% |
| 1-0 | 4.3% | 1-1 | 10.2% | 1-2 | 9.9% |
| 1-3 | 6.7% | 1-4 | 3.4% | 1-5 | 1.4% |
| 2-0 | 2.7% | 2-1 | 5.4% | 2-2 | 5.5% |
| 2-3 | 3.8% | 2-4 | 1.9% | 2-5 | 0.8% |
| 3-0 | 1.0% | 3-1 | 2.0% | 3-2 | 2.1% |
| 3-3 | 1.4% | 3-4 | 0.7% | 3-5 | 0.3% |
| 4-0 | 0.3% | 4-1 | 0.6% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.1% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.9% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 10.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.3% | under_0.5 | 4.8% | over_1.5 | 82.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 17.2% | over_2.5 | 61.1% | under_2.5 | 38.9% |
| over_3.5 | 38.8% | under_3.5 | 61.3% | over_4.5 | 21.1% |
| under_4.5 | 78.9% | over_5.5 | 10.0% | under_5.5 | 90.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 67.4% | under_0.5 | 32.6% | over_1.5 | 30.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.2% | over_2.5 | 10.4% | under_2.5 | 89.6% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 86.9% | under_0.5 | 13.1% | over_1.5 | 60.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 39.7% | over_2.5 | 33.3% | under_2.5 | 66.7% |
most
| home | 19.9% | draw | 22.1% | away | 58.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 2.3% | away_+2.5 | 97.7% | home_-1.5 | 7.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 92.4% | home_-0.5 | 19.9% | away_+0.5 | 80.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 42.0% | away_-0.5 | 58.0% | home_+1.5 | 64.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 35.4% | home_+2.5 | 82.4% | away_-2.5 | 17.6% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.8% | exact_1 | 12.5% | exact_2 | 21.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 17.6% | exact_5 | 11.1% |
| exact_6 | 5.8% | exact_7plus | 4.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 17.1% | draw | 29.3% | away | 53.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 84.7% | under_0.5 | 15.3% | over_1.5 | 56.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 44.0% | over_2.5 | 29.0% | under_2.5 | 71.0% |
btts
| yes | 32.3% | no | 67.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 15.3% | exact_1 | 28.7% | exact_2 | 27.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 16.9% | exact_4plus | 12.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 22.2% | draw | 35.8% | away | 42.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.9% | under_0.5 | 22.1% | over_1.5 | 44.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 55.5% | over_2.5 | 19.4% | under_2.5 | 80.7% |
btts
| yes | 26.7% | no | 73.3% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 11.1% | H/D | 3.8% | H/A | 2.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 6.5% | D/D | 10.5% | D/A | 12.3% |
| A/H | 1.7% | A/D | 5.5% | A/A | 46.4% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 79.8% | under_7.5 | 20.2% | over_8.5 | 69.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 30.1% | over_9.5 | 58.7% | under_9.5 | 41.3% |
| over_10.5 | 47.2% | under_10.5 | 52.8% | over_11.5 | 36.3% |
| under_11.5 | 63.7% | over_12.5 | 26.7% | under_12.5 | 73.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.5% | under_3.5 | 27.5% | over_4.5 | 57.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.3% | over_5.5 | 43.1% | under_5.5 | 56.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 70.8% | under_3.5 | 29.2% | over_4.5 | 55.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.4% | over_5.5 | 40.9% | under_5.5 | 59.1% |
most
| home | 46.5% | draw | 9.8% | away | 43.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.5% | away_+3.5 | 79.5% | home_-1.5 | 36.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 63.1% | home_-0.5 | 46.5% | away_+0.5 | 53.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 56.3% | away_-0.5 | 43.7% | home_+1.5 | 65.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 34.3% | home_+3.5 | 81.4% | away_-3.5 | 18.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 72.2% | under_22.5 | 27.8% | over_24.5 | 61.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 38.1% | over_26.5 | 50.9% | under_26.5 | 49.1% |
| over_28.5 | 40.1% | under_28.5 | 59.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 72.4% | under_10.5 | 27.6% | over_12.5 | 57.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.3% | over_14.5 | 42.8% | under_14.5 | 57.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 67.5% | under_10.5 | 32.5% | over_12.5 | 52.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 48.0% | over_14.5 | 37.1% | under_14.5 | 62.9% |
most
| home | 51.2% | draw | 5.6% | away | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 29.8% | away_+4.5 | 70.2% | home_-2.5 | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 59.8% | home_-0.5 | 51.2% | away_+0.5 | 48.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 56.8% | away_-0.5 | 43.2% | home_+2.5 | 67.4% |
| away_-2.5 | 32.6% | home_+4.5 | 76.8% | away_-4.5 | 23.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 82.3% | under_6.5 | 17.8% | over_7.5 | 73.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 26.9% | over_8.5 | 62.6% | under_8.5 | 37.4% |
| over_9.5 | 51.7% | under_9.5 | 48.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 66.0% | under_3.5 | 34.0% | over_4.5 | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.2% | over_5.5 | 35.0% | under_5.5 | 65.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 70.9% | under_3.5 | 29.1% | over_4.5 | 55.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 44.4% | over_5.5 | 40.8% | under_5.5 | 59.2% |
most
| home | 40.4% | draw | 11.1% | away | 48.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 21.2% | away_+2.5 | 78.9% | home_-0.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 59.6% | home_+0.5 | 51.5% | away_-0.5 | 48.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 72.4% | away_-2.5 | 27.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 52.6% | under_2.5 | 47.4% | over_3.5 | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 69.5% | over_4.5 | 15.1% | under_4.5 | 84.9% |
| over_5.5 | 6.5% | under_5.5 | 93.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.8% | even | 50.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 36.4% | under_1.5 | 63.6% | over_2.5 | 13.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 86.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 44.4% | under_1.5 | 55.6% | over_2.5 | 19.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 80.6% |
most
| home | 32.3% | draw | 25.1% | away | 42.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 14.0% | away_+1.5 | 86.1% | home_-0.5 | 32.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 67.8% | home_+0.5 | 57.4% | away_-0.5 | 42.7% |
| home_+1.5 | 78.9% | away_-1.5 | 21.1% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 50.6% | under_20.5 | 49.4% | over_22.5 | 35.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 64.6% | over_24.5 | 22.7% | under_24.5 | 77.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 58.5% | under_9.5 | 41.5% | over_11.5 | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 63.3% | over_13.5 | 19.6% | under_13.5 | 80.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 56.5% | under_9.5 | 43.5% | over_11.5 | 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 65.3% | over_13.5 | 18.1% | under_13.5 | 81.9% |
most
| home | 47.5% | draw | 8.0% | away | 44.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.4% | away_+3.5 | 74.6% | home_-0.5 | 47.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.5% | home_+2.5 | 70.5% | away_-2.5 | 29.5% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 14.1% | no | 85.9% |
|---|
home
| yes | 8.4% | no | 91.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 6.2% | no | 93.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Cambuur predictions · Feyenoord predictions · Eredivisie
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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