Burgos vs Cordoba: model prediction
Segunda DivisiónBurgos or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Burgos at 46.4%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 60.1% and it missed (5 goals). We called No at 54.8% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Our engine prices Burgos at 46% for 16 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Burgos than the market (40%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 40% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 45%. • History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 2 wins for Burgos, 1 draws and 1 for Cordoba at 3.8 goals per match. • Recent form reads W3 D3 L0 for Burgos against W3 D1 L2 for Cordoba. Discipline says sit it out: trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
46.4%+6.3%
28.8%-0.1%
24.8%-6.2%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Toss-up
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Burgos 2 · 1 draws · Cordoba 1 · 3.8 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2025/26, real results only
31.0%59.5%
38.1%66.7%
45.2%21.4%
League averages this season: 2.63 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 72.8% | Over 7.5 | 60.0% | Over 8.5 | 46.7% | Over 9.5 | 34.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Burgos | 51.6% | Most: Cordoba | 35.2% | ||||
| Burgos Over 4.2 | 47.2% | Cordoba Over 4.2 | 35.3% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 89.9% | Over 3.5 | 77.6% | Over 4.5 | 61.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Burgos | 34.5% | Most: Cordoba | 47.9% | ||
| Burgos Over 1.8 | 70.4% | Cordoba Over 1.8 | 77.8% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Burgos clean sheet | 39.9% |
|---|---|
| Cordoba clean sheet | 25.7% |
| Burgos win to nil | 29.0% |
| Cordoba win to nil | 14.8% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 46.4% | draw | 28.8% | away | 24.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 75.2% | 12 | 71.2% | X2 | 53.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 65.1% | away | 34.9% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 45.2% | no | 54.8% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 40.0% | away | 25.7% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 29.1% | away | 14.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.9% | home_by_2 | 14.1% | home_by_3plus | 8.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 16.0% | away_by_2 | 6.5% | away_by_3plus | 2.4% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 10.9% | 0-1 | 8.8% | 0-2 | 4.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.4% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 13.3% | 1-1 | 13.4% | 1-2 | 5.9% |
| 1-3 | 1.8% | 1-4 | 0.4% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.5% | 2-1 | 8.6% | 2-2 | 4.0% |
| 2-3 | 1.2% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.3% | 3-1 | 3.9% | 3-2 | 1.8% |
| 3-3 | 0.5% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 1.5% | 4-1 | 1.3% | 4-2 | 0.6% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.0% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.4% | 5-1 | 0.4% | 5-2 | 0.2% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 89.1% | under_0.5 | 10.9% | over_1.5 | 67.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 32.9% | over_2.5 | 39.9% | under_2.5 | 60.1% |
| over_3.5 | 19.7% | under_3.5 | 80.3% | over_4.5 | 8.2% |
| under_4.5 | 91.9% | over_5.5 | 2.9% | under_5.5 | 97.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.2% | even | 51.8% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 74.3% | under_0.5 | 25.7% | over_1.5 | 39.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.6% | over_2.5 | 15.7% | under_2.5 | 84.3% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 60.0% | under_0.5 | 40.0% | over_1.5 | 23.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 76.5% | over_2.5 | 6.7% | under_2.5 | 93.3% |
most
| home | 46.4% | draw | 28.8% | away | 24.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 8.4% | away_+2.5 | 91.6% | home_-1.5 | 22.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 77.6% | home_-0.5 | 46.4% | away_+0.5 | 53.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 75.2% | away_-0.5 | 24.8% | home_+1.5 | 91.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 8.8% | home_+2.5 | 97.7% | away_-2.5 | 2.4% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 10.9% | exact_1 | 22.0% | exact_2 | 27.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.2% | exact_4 | 11.5% | exact_5 | 5.3% |
| exact_6 | 2.0% | exact_7plus | 0.9% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 43.6% | draw | 41.8% | away | 14.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.4% | under_0.5 | 32.6% | over_1.5 | 30.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.2% | over_2.5 | 10.4% | under_2.5 | 89.6% |
btts
| yes | 15.5% | no | 84.5% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 32.6% | exact_1 | 36.6% | exact_2 | 20.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.6% | exact_4plus | 2.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 33.7% | draw | 43.2% | away | 23.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.7% | under_0.5 | 32.3% | over_1.5 | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.8% | over_2.5 | 10.6% | under_2.5 | 89.4% |
btts
| yes | 18.2% | no | 81.8% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 36.3% | H/D | 5.8% | H/A | 1.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 14.1% | D/D | 18.1% | D/A | 9.7% |
| A/H | 1.2% | A/D | 3.2% | A/A | 10.3% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.3% | under_7.5 | 25.7% | over_8.5 | 62.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 37.2% | over_9.5 | 50.6% | under_9.5 | 49.4% |
| over_10.5 | 38.8% | under_10.5 | 61.2% | over_11.5 | 28.3% |
| under_11.5 | 71.7% | over_12.5 | 19.7% | under_12.5 | 80.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 70.5% | under_3.5 | 29.5% | over_4.5 | 54.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 45.7% | over_5.5 | 38.7% | under_5.5 | 61.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 66.6% | under_3.5 | 33.4% | over_4.5 | 49.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 50.2% | over_5.5 | 34.4% | under_5.5 | 65.6% |
most
| home | 47.5% | draw | 11.0% | away | 41.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 18.7% | away_+3.5 | 81.3% | home_-1.5 | 36.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 63.3% | home_-0.5 | 47.5% | away_+0.5 | 52.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 58.5% | away_-0.5 | 41.5% | home_+1.5 | 68.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 31.2% | home_+3.5 | 85.1% | away_-3.5 | 14.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 61.6% | under_22.5 | 38.4% | over_24.5 | 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 51.3% | over_26.5 | 36.2% | under_26.5 | 63.8% |
| over_28.5 | 25.4% | under_28.5 | 74.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 69.0% | under_10.5 | 31.0% | over_12.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 48.7% | over_14.5 | 34.5% | under_14.5 | 65.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 57.7% | under_10.5 | 42.3% | over_12.5 | 39.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 60.9% | over_14.5 | 23.6% | under_14.5 | 76.4% |
most
| home | 55.4% | draw | 6.4% | away | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 30.0% | away_+4.5 | 70.0% | home_-2.5 | 42.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 57.7% | home_-0.5 | 55.4% | away_+0.5 | 44.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.8% | away_-0.5 | 38.2% | home_+2.5 | 73.6% |
| away_-2.5 | 26.5% | home_+4.5 | 83.1% | away_-4.5 | 16.9% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 72.8% | under_6.5 | 27.2% | over_7.5 | 60.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 40.0% | over_8.5 | 46.7% | under_8.5 | 53.3% |
| over_9.5 | 34.3% | under_9.5 | 65.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.4% | under_3.5 | 34.6% | over_4.5 | 47.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.8% | over_5.5 | 30.8% | under_5.5 | 69.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 54.1% | under_3.5 | 45.9% | over_4.5 | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 64.7% | over_5.5 | 20.6% | under_5.5 | 79.4% |
most
| home | 51.6% | draw | 13.2% | away | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 26.3% | away_+2.5 | 73.7% | home_-0.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 48.4% | home_+0.5 | 64.8% | away_-0.5 | 35.2% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.5% | away_-2.5 | 14.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 90.0% | under_2.5 | 10.1% | over_3.5 | 77.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 22.4% | over_4.5 | 61.3% | under_4.5 | 38.7% |
| over_5.5 | 43.9% | under_5.5 | 56.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 70.4% | under_1.5 | 29.6% | over_2.5 | 44.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 55.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 77.8% | under_1.5 | 22.2% | over_2.5 | 54.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 45.6% |
most
| home | 34.5% | draw | 17.5% | away | 47.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 19.9% | away_+1.5 | 80.1% | home_-0.5 | 34.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.5% | home_+0.5 | 52.1% | away_-0.5 | 47.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 69.1% | away_-1.5 | 30.9% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 89.2% | under_20.5 | 10.8% | over_22.5 | 81.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 18.9% | over_24.5 | 70.4% | under_24.5 | 29.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 80.1% | under_9.5 | 19.9% | over_11.5 | 63.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 37.0% | over_13.5 | 44.2% | under_13.5 | 55.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 88.8% | under_9.5 | 11.2% | over_11.5 | 76.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 23.7% | over_13.5 | 59.8% | under_13.5 | 40.2% |
most
| home | 36.0% | draw | 6.3% | away | 57.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 19.7% | away_+3.5 | 80.3% | home_-0.5 | 36.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 64.0% | home_+2.5 | 55.3% | away_-2.5 | 44.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 13.4% | no | 86.6% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.8% | no | 93.2% |
|---|
away
| yes | 7.1% | no | 92.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Burgos predictions · Cordoba predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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