Eibar vs Tenerife: model prediction
Segunda DivisiónEibar or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Not both teams to score
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Eibar at 60.2%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 56.2% and it missed (4 goals). We called No at 57.3% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"Eibar or Tenerife? We publish probabilities, not certainties." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Eibar heavy favourites at 60% when Eibar meet Tenerife in the Segunda División on 16 August 2026. Notably, the model is warmer on Eibar than the market (51%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 44% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 43%. Form guide over the last six: Eibar W3 D0 L3, Tenerife W0 D3 L3. Fatigue may matter, with Eibar 364 days shorter on recovery than Tenerife. Tenerife are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The recent series reads 3 wins for Eibar, 1 draws and 1 for Tenerife over 5 games, 2.0 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
60.2%+9.4%
24.7%-3.1%
15.1%-6.3%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Eibar 3 · 1 draws · Tenerife 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 71.5% | Over 7.5 | 58.5% | Over 8.5 | 45.1% | Over 9.5 | 32.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Eibar | 60.9% | Most: Tenerife | 26.7% | ||||
| Eibar Over 4.2 | 52.4% | Tenerife Over 4.2 | 27.6% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 86.6% | Over 3.5 | 72.0% | Over 4.5 | 54.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Eibar | 37.9% | Most: Tenerife | 43.6% | ||
| Eibar Over 1.8 | 68.4% | Tenerife Over 1.8 | 71.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Eibar clean sheet | 48.0% |
|---|---|
| Tenerife clean sheet | 18.3% |
| Eibar win to nil | 38.6% |
| Tenerife win to nil | 8.9% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 60.2% | draw | 24.7% | away | 15.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 84.9% | 12 | 75.3% | X2 | 39.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 79.9% | away | 20.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 42.7% | no | 57.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 48.4% | away | 18.3% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 39.0% | away | 8.9% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 25.9% | home_by_2 | 18.9% | home_by_3plus | 15.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 10.7% | away_by_2 | 3.5% | away_by_3plus | 0.9% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 9.4% | 0-1 | 5.9% | 0-2 | 2.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.6% | 0-4 | 0.1% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 14.5% | 1-1 | 11.4% | 1-2 | 4.0% |
| 1-3 | 1.0% | 1-4 | 0.2% | 1-5 | 0.0% |
| 2-0 | 12.8% | 2-1 | 9.3% | 2-2 | 3.4% |
| 2-3 | 0.8% | 2-4 | 0.2% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 7.2% | 3-1 | 5.3% | 3-2 | 1.9% |
| 3-3 | 0.5% | 3-4 | 0.1% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 3.1% | 4-1 | 2.2% | 4-2 | 0.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.0% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.1% | 5-1 | 0.8% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.8% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 14.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.6% | under_0.5 | 9.4% | over_1.5 | 70.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 29.7% | over_2.5 | 43.8% | under_2.5 | 56.2% |
| over_3.5 | 22.7% | under_3.5 | 77.3% | over_4.5 | 9.9% |
| under_4.5 | 90.1% | over_5.5 | 3.7% | under_5.5 | 96.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 81.8% | under_0.5 | 18.3% | over_1.5 | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 49.3% | over_2.5 | 24.3% | under_2.5 | 75.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 51.6% | under_0.5 | 48.4% | over_1.5 | 16.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 83.5% | over_2.5 | 3.8% | under_2.5 | 96.2% |
most
| home | 60.2% | draw | 24.7% | away | 15.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 15.5% | away_+2.5 | 84.5% | home_-1.5 | 34.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 65.6% | home_-0.5 | 60.2% | away_+0.5 | 39.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 84.9% | away_-0.5 | 15.1% | home_+1.5 | 95.6% |
| away_-1.5 | 4.4% | home_+2.5 | 99.1% | away_-2.5 | 0.9% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 9.4% | exact_1 | 20.3% | exact_2 | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.0% | exact_4 | 12.8% | exact_5 | 6.2% |
| exact_6 | 2.5% | exact_7plus | 1.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.3% | draw | 50.3% | away | 15.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 56.8% | under_0.5 | 43.3% | over_1.5 | 20.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 79.5% | over_2.5 | 5.3% | under_2.5 | 94.7% |
btts
| yes | 10.5% | no | 89.5% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 43.3% | exact_1 | 36.3% | exact_2 | 15.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 4.2% | exact_4plus | 1.1% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 41.5% | draw | 41.0% | away | 17.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 69.4% | under_0.5 | 30.6% | over_1.5 | 33.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.8% | over_2.5 | 11.7% | under_2.5 | 88.3% |
btts
| yes | 18.0% | no | 82.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 29.6% | H/D | 3.9% | H/A | 0.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 20.9% | D/D | 20.6% | D/A | 8.8% |
| A/H | 1.9% | A/D | 3.9% | A/A | 9.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 69.9% | under_7.5 | 30.1% | over_8.5 | 57.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 42.3% | over_9.5 | 45.3% | under_9.5 | 54.8% |
| over_10.5 | 33.7% | under_10.5 | 66.3% | over_11.5 | 23.8% |
| under_11.5 | 76.2% | over_12.5 | 16.0% | under_12.5 | 84.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.2% | under_3.5 | 27.9% | over_4.5 | 56.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.7% | over_5.5 | 40.7% | under_5.5 | 59.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.8% | under_3.5 | 42.2% | over_4.5 | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.8% | over_5.5 | 25.6% | under_5.5 | 74.4% |
most
| home | 55.0% | draw | 11.0% | away | 34.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.4% | away_+3.5 | 76.6% | home_-1.5 | 43.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.4% | home_-0.5 | 55.0% | away_+0.5 | 45.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.1% | away_-0.5 | 34.0% | home_+1.5 | 75.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.2% | home_+3.5 | 89.8% | away_-3.5 | 10.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 61.4% | under_22.5 | 38.6% | over_24.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 51.6% | over_26.5 | 35.9% | under_26.5 | 64.1% |
| over_28.5 | 25.1% | under_28.5 | 75.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 73.5% | under_10.5 | 26.5% | over_12.5 | 56.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 43.3% | over_14.5 | 39.8% | under_14.5 | 60.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.4% | under_10.5 | 48.6% | over_12.5 | 32.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.1% | over_14.5 | 18.7% | under_14.5 | 81.3% |
most
| home | 63.5% | draw | 6.0% | away | 30.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 37.6% | away_+4.5 | 62.4% | home_-2.5 | 50.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 49.5% | home_-0.5 | 63.5% | away_+0.5 | 36.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.5% | away_-0.5 | 30.5% | home_+2.5 | 80.0% |
| away_-2.5 | 20.0% | home_+4.5 | 87.9% | away_-4.5 | 12.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 71.5% | under_6.5 | 28.5% | over_7.5 | 58.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 41.5% | over_8.5 | 45.1% | under_8.5 | 54.9% |
| over_9.5 | 32.8% | under_9.5 | 67.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.9% | under_3.5 | 30.1% | over_4.5 | 52.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 47.6% | over_5.5 | 35.7% | under_5.5 | 64.3% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 45.8% | under_3.5 | 54.2% | over_4.5 | 27.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 72.4% | over_5.5 | 14.8% | under_5.5 | 85.2% |
most
| home | 60.9% | draw | 12.4% | away | 26.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 34.3% | away_+2.5 | 65.7% | home_-0.5 | 60.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 39.1% | home_+0.5 | 73.3% | away_-0.5 | 26.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 90.5% | away_-2.5 | 9.6% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 86.6% | under_2.5 | 13.4% | over_3.5 | 72.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 28.0% | over_4.5 | 54.1% | under_4.5 | 45.9% |
| over_5.5 | 36.6% | under_5.5 | 63.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 68.4% | under_1.5 | 31.6% | over_2.5 | 42.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 57.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 71.9% | under_1.5 | 28.1% | over_2.5 | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 53.6% |
most
| home | 37.9% | draw | 18.5% | away | 43.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.9% | away_+1.5 | 78.1% | home_-0.5 | 37.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 62.1% | home_+0.5 | 56.4% | away_-0.5 | 43.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.5% | away_-1.5 | 26.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 80.9% | under_20.5 | 19.1% | over_22.5 | 69.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 30.4% | over_24.5 | 56.5% | under_24.5 | 43.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 79.9% | under_9.5 | 20.1% | over_11.5 | 62.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 37.2% | over_13.5 | 43.9% | under_13.5 | 56.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 76.5% | under_9.5 | 23.5% | over_11.5 | 58.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 41.8% | over_13.5 | 39.1% | under_13.5 | 60.9% |
most
| home | 50.0% | draw | 6.8% | away | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 30.4% | away_+3.5 | 69.6% | home_-0.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 50.0% | home_+2.5 | 69.6% | away_-2.5 | 30.4% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 23.3% | no | 76.7% |
|---|
home
| yes | 6.1% | no | 93.9% |
|---|
away
| yes | 18.3% | no | 81.8% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Eibar predictions · Tenerife predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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