Cheltenham vs Rotherham: model prediction
League TwoOver 1.5 goals
Cheltenham or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Cheltenham at 45.1%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 51.6% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 55.4% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"Cheltenham or Rotherham? We publish probabilities, not certainties." The model leans Cheltenham at 45% when Cheltenham host Rotherham in the League Two on 15 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Notably, the model is warmer on Cheltenham than the market (35%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. No strong lean on goals (52% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Rotherham are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
45.1%+10.3%
26.3%-1.2%
28.6%-9.2%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Referee history
Most-seen referees this season, real match data. We never claim who officiates this fixture.
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 66.4% | Over 7.5 | 53.8% | Over 8.5 | 41.4% | Over 9.5 | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Cheltenham | 38.5% | Most: Rotherham | 48.7% | ||||
| Cheltenham Over 4.2 | 33.9% | Rotherham Over 4.2 | 41.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 69.1% | Over 3.5 | 47.7% | Over 4.5 | 28.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Cheltenham | 29.9% | Most: Rotherham | 48.6% | ||
| Cheltenham Over 1.8 | 45.9% | Rotherham Over 1.8 | 59.8% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Cheltenham clean sheet | 30.3% |
|---|---|
| Rotherham clean sheet | 21.2% |
| Cheltenham win to nil | 23.2% |
| Rotherham win to nil | 14.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 45.1% | draw | 26.3% | away | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 71.4% | 12 | 73.7% | X2 | 54.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 61.2% | away | 38.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 55.4% | no | 44.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 30.5% | away | 21.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 23.4% | away | 14.1% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.0% | home_by_2 | 13.8% | home_by_3plus | 9.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 16.7% | away_by_2 | 8.1% | away_by_3plus | 3.8% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.1% | 0-1 | 7.1% | 0-2 | 4.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.8% | 0-4 | 0.5% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 9.4% | 1-1 | 12.5% | 1-2 | 7.1% |
| 1-3 | 2.8% | 1-4 | 0.8% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 7.8% | 2-1 | 9.2% | 2-2 | 5.5% |
| 2-3 | 2.2% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 4.0% | 3-1 | 4.8% | 3-2 | 2.8% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.6% | 4-1 | 1.9% | 4-2 | 1.1% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.5% | 5-1 | 0.6% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.9% | under_0.5 | 7.1% | over_1.5 | 76.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 23.6% | over_2.5 | 51.6% | under_2.5 | 48.4% |
| over_3.5 | 29.5% | under_3.5 | 70.5% | over_4.5 | 14.4% |
| under_4.5 | 85.6% | over_5.5 | 6.0% | under_5.5 | 94.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 78.8% | under_0.5 | 21.2% | over_1.5 | 45.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 54.1% | over_2.5 | 20.5% | under_2.5 | 79.6% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 69.6% | under_0.5 | 30.5% | over_1.5 | 33.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 66.6% | over_2.5 | 11.8% | under_2.5 | 88.2% |
most
| home | 45.1% | draw | 26.3% | away | 28.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 9.4% | away_+2.5 | 90.6% | home_-1.5 | 23.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 76.9% | home_-0.5 | 45.1% | away_+0.5 | 54.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.4% | away_-0.5 | 28.6% | home_+1.5 | 88.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 11.9% | home_+2.5 | 96.2% | away_-2.5 | 3.8% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.1% | exact_1 | 16.5% | exact_2 | 24.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.1% | exact_4 | 15.2% | exact_5 | 8.3% |
| exact_6 | 3.8% | exact_7plus | 2.2% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 19.3% | draw | 42.7% | away | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.7% | under_0.5 | 32.3% | over_1.5 | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 68.8% | over_2.5 | 10.6% | under_2.5 | 89.4% |
btts
| yes | 17.4% | no | 82.6% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 32.3% | exact_1 | 36.5% | exact_2 | 20.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.8% | exact_4plus | 2.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 36.6% | draw | 33.6% | away | 29.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 82.3% | under_0.5 | 17.8% | over_1.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 48.4% | over_2.5 | 25.0% | under_2.5 | 75.0% |
btts
| yes | 33.3% | no | 66.7% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 14.3% | H/D | 3.4% | H/A | 1.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.6% | D/D | 14.3% | D/A | 12.7% |
| A/H | 3.9% | A/D | 7.1% | A/A | 27.1% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.0% | under_7.5 | 26.0% | over_8.5 | 62.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 37.1% | over_9.5 | 51.2% | under_9.5 | 48.8% |
| over_10.5 | 39.8% | under_10.5 | 60.2% | over_11.5 | 29.5% |
| under_11.5 | 70.5% | over_12.5 | 21.0% | under_12.5 | 79.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.4% | under_3.5 | 27.6% | over_4.5 | 57.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.0% | over_5.5 | 41.9% | under_5.5 | 58.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 64.0% | under_3.5 | 36.0% | over_4.5 | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.7% | over_5.5 | 32.3% | under_5.5 | 67.7% |
most
| home | 51.2% | draw | 10.7% | away | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 21.8% | away_+3.5 | 78.2% | home_-1.5 | 40.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.6% | home_-0.5 | 51.2% | away_+0.5 | 48.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.9% | away_-0.5 | 38.1% | home_+1.5 | 71.8% |
| away_-1.5 | 28.2% | home_+3.5 | 86.8% | away_-3.5 | 13.2% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 57.3% | under_22.5 | 42.7% | over_24.5 | 44.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 55.5% | over_26.5 | 32.7% | under_26.5 | 67.4% |
| over_28.5 | 22.6% | under_28.5 | 77.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 63.8% | under_10.5 | 36.2% | over_12.5 | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 54.0% | over_14.5 | 30.0% | under_14.5 | 70.0% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 56.9% | under_10.5 | 43.2% | over_12.5 | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 61.3% | over_14.5 | 23.7% | under_14.5 | 76.3% |
most
| home | 51.9% | draw | 6.5% | away | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 27.3% | away_+4.5 | 72.7% | home_-2.5 | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 61.0% | home_-0.5 | 51.9% | away_+0.5 | 48.1% |
| home_+0.5 | 58.4% | away_-0.5 | 41.6% | home_+2.5 | 70.5% |
| away_-2.5 | 29.5% | home_+4.5 | 80.6% | away_-4.5 | 19.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 66.4% | under_6.5 | 33.6% | over_7.5 | 53.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 46.2% | over_8.5 | 41.4% | under_8.5 | 58.6% |
| over_9.5 | 30.4% | under_9.5 | 69.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 51.1% | under_3.5 | 48.9% | over_4.5 | 33.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 66.1% | over_5.5 | 20.6% | under_5.5 | 79.4% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.3% | under_3.5 | 41.7% | over_4.5 | 41.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.9% | over_5.5 | 26.7% | under_5.5 | 73.3% |
most
| home | 38.5% | draw | 12.9% | away | 48.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 17.4% | away_+2.5 | 82.6% | home_-0.5 | 38.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.5% | home_+0.5 | 51.3% | away_-0.5 | 48.7% |
| home_+2.5 | 75.1% | away_-2.5 | 24.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 69.1% | under_2.5 | 30.9% | over_3.5 | 47.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 52.3% | over_4.5 | 28.7% | under_4.5 | 71.3% |
| over_5.5 | 15.1% | under_5.5 | 84.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 45.9% | under_1.5 | 54.1% | over_2.5 | 20.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 79.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 59.8% | under_1.5 | 40.2% | over_2.5 | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 67.3% |
most
| home | 29.9% | draw | 21.5% | away | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 14.0% | away_+1.5 | 86.0% | home_-0.5 | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.1% | home_+0.5 | 51.4% | away_-0.5 | 48.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.1% | away_-1.5 | 28.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 65.0% | under_20.5 | 35.0% | over_22.5 | 49.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 50.4% | over_24.5 | 34.6% | under_24.5 | 65.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 59.5% | under_9.5 | 40.5% | over_11.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 63.0% | over_13.5 | 19.2% | under_13.5 | 80.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 74.8% | under_9.5 | 25.3% | over_11.5 | 54.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 45.7% | over_13.5 | 33.8% | under_13.5 | 66.2% |
most
| home | 34.2% | draw | 7.5% | away | 58.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 15.9% | away_+3.5 | 84.1% | home_-0.5 | 34.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 65.8% | home_+2.5 | 57.4% | away_-2.5 | 42.6% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 10.6% | no | 89.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.9% | no | 94.1% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.0% | no | 95.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Cheltenham predictions · Rotherham predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
Explore this match
Markets