St. Gilloise vs Waregem: model prediction
Pro LeagueSt. Gilloise or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time1 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was St. Gilloise at 61.2%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 52.0% and it missed (0 goals). We called No at 50.4% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
St. Gilloise go into this Pro League meeting with Waregem on 15 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 61%. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate St. Gilloise higher (73%) than our model does. No strong lean on goals (52% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for St. Gilloise against W6 D0 L0 for Waregem. The recent series reads 5 wins for St. Gilloise, 0 draws and 0 for Waregem over 5 games, 3.4 goals on average. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.09)).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
61.2%-11.5%
22.8%+4.5%
15.9%+6.9%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.09)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: St. Gilloise 5 · 0 draws · Waregem 0 · 3.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
St. Gilloise
Waregem100.0%100.0%
100.0%100.0%
0.0%0.0%
League averages this season: 3.33 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 78% · BTTS in 78%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 73.5% | Over 7.5 | 61.9% | Over 8.5 | 49.7% | Over 9.5 | 38.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: St. Gilloise | 66.2% | Most: Waregem | 23.1% | ||||
| St. Gilloise Over 4.2 | 58.6% | Waregem Over 4.2 | 26.7% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 74.8% | Over 3.5 | 54.9% | Over 4.5 | 35.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: St. Gilloise | 39.2% | Most: Waregem | 39.8% | ||
| St. Gilloise Over 1.8 | 57.9% | Waregem Over 1.8 | 58.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| St. Gilloise clean sheet | 41.8% |
|---|---|
| Waregem clean sheet | 15.0% |
| St. Gilloise win to nil | 34.9% |
| Waregem win to nil | 8.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 61.2% | draw | 22.8% | away | 16.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 84.1% | 12 | 77.2% | X2 | 38.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 79.3% | away | 20.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 49.6% | no | 50.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 42.3% | away | 15.0% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 35.4% | away | 8.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.4% | home_by_2 | 19.0% | home_by_3plus | 17.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 10.8% | away_by_2 | 3.9% | away_by_3plus | 1.2% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 6.9% | 0-1 | 5.0% | 0-2 | 2.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.7% | 0-4 | 0.1% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.5% | 1-1 | 10.9% | 1-2 | 4.5% |
| 1-3 | 1.3% | 1-4 | 0.3% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 11.4% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 4.2% |
| 2-3 | 1.2% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.0% |
| 3-0 | 7.2% | 3-1 | 6.2% | 3-2 | 2.7% |
| 3-3 | 0.8% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 3.4% | 4-1 | 2.9% | 4-2 | 1.3% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.3% | 5-1 | 1.1% | 5-2 | 0.5% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 11.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 93.1% | under_0.5 | 6.9% | over_1.5 | 76.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 23.4% | over_2.5 | 52.0% | under_2.5 | 48.0% |
| over_3.5 | 29.8% | under_3.5 | 70.2% | over_4.5 | 14.6% |
| under_4.5 | 85.4% | over_5.5 | 6.2% | under_5.5 | 93.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.8% | even | 51.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 85.0% | under_0.5 | 15.0% | over_1.5 | 56.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 43.5% | over_2.5 | 29.5% | under_2.5 | 70.5% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 57.7% | under_0.5 | 42.3% | over_1.5 | 21.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 78.7% | over_2.5 | 5.7% | under_2.5 | 94.4% |
most
| home | 61.2% | draw | 22.8% | away | 16.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 17.8% | away_+2.5 | 82.2% | home_-1.5 | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 63.2% | home_-0.5 | 61.2% | away_+0.5 | 38.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 84.1% | away_-0.5 | 16.0% | home_+1.5 | 94.9% |
| away_-1.5 | 5.1% | home_+2.5 | 98.8% | away_-2.5 | 1.2% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 6.9% | exact_1 | 16.5% | exact_2 | 24.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 15.3% | exact_5 | 8.4% |
| exact_6 | 3.9% | exact_7plus | 2.3% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 47.8% | draw | 37.4% | away | 14.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.0% | under_0.5 | 27.0% | over_1.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.3% | over_2.5 | 14.5% | under_2.5 | 85.5% |
btts
| yes | 19.2% | no | 80.8% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 27.0% | exact_1 | 35.4% | exact_2 | 23.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.1% | exact_4plus | 4.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 47.4% | draw | 34.9% | away | 17.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 77.5% | under_0.5 | 22.5% | over_1.5 | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 56.0% | over_2.5 | 18.9% | under_2.5 | 81.1% |
btts
| yes | 24.5% | no | 75.5% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 42.0% | H/D | 4.6% | H/A | 1.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 17.8% | D/D | 13.1% | D/A | 6.6% |
| A/H | 2.4% | A/D | 3.8% | A/A | 8.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.6% | under_7.5 | 25.4% | over_8.5 | 63.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 36.7% | over_9.5 | 51.1% | under_9.5 | 48.9% |
| over_10.5 | 39.3% | under_10.5 | 60.7% | over_11.5 | 28.8% |
| under_11.5 | 71.2% | over_12.5 | 20.1% | under_12.5 | 79.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 76.7% | under_3.5 | 23.3% | over_4.5 | 62.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 37.9% | over_5.5 | 46.9% | under_5.5 | 53.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.0% | under_3.5 | 41.0% | over_4.5 | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.4% | over_5.5 | 26.8% | under_5.5 | 73.2% |
most
| home | 58.3% | draw | 10.4% | away | 31.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 27.0% | away_+3.5 | 73.0% | home_-1.5 | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 52.7% | home_-0.5 | 58.3% | away_+0.5 | 41.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.6% | away_-0.5 | 31.4% | home_+1.5 | 77.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 22.3% | home_+3.5 | 90.5% | away_-3.5 | 9.5% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 63.9% | under_22.5 | 36.1% | over_24.5 | 51.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 48.1% | over_26.5 | 40.1% | under_26.5 | 59.9% |
| over_28.5 | 29.2% | under_28.5 | 70.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 76.9% | under_10.5 | 23.1% | over_12.5 | 62.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 37.7% | over_14.5 | 46.8% | under_14.5 | 53.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 48.7% | under_10.5 | 51.3% | over_12.5 | 31.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 68.4% | over_14.5 | 18.6% | under_14.5 | 81.4% |
most
| home | 68.3% | draw | 5.3% | away | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 44.5% | away_+4.5 | 55.5% | home_-2.5 | 56.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 43.3% | home_-0.5 | 68.3% | away_+0.5 | 31.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 73.6% | away_-0.5 | 26.4% | home_+2.5 | 82.6% |
| away_-2.5 | 17.5% | home_+4.5 | 89.3% | away_-4.5 | 10.7% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 73.6% | under_6.5 | 26.5% | over_7.5 | 61.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 38.1% | over_8.5 | 49.7% | under_8.5 | 50.3% |
| over_9.5 | 38.1% | under_9.5 | 61.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 73.8% | under_3.5 | 26.2% | over_4.5 | 58.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 41.4% | over_5.5 | 43.3% | under_5.5 | 56.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 43.5% | under_3.5 | 56.5% | over_4.5 | 26.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 73.3% | over_5.5 | 14.8% | under_5.5 | 85.2% |
most
| home | 66.2% | draw | 10.7% | away | 23.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 41.7% | away_+2.5 | 58.3% | home_-0.5 | 66.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 33.8% | home_+0.5 | 76.9% | away_-0.5 | 23.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 91.5% | away_-2.5 | 8.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 74.8% | under_2.5 | 25.2% | over_3.5 | 54.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 45.2% | over_4.5 | 35.3% | under_4.5 | 64.7% |
| over_5.5 | 20.1% | under_5.5 | 79.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 57.9% | under_1.5 | 42.1% | over_2.5 | 30.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 69.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 58.4% | under_1.5 | 41.6% | over_2.5 | 31.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 68.7% |
most
| home | 39.2% | draw | 21.0% | away | 39.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 21.3% | away_+1.5 | 78.7% | home_-0.5 | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.8% | home_+0.5 | 60.2% | away_-0.5 | 39.8% |
| home_+1.5 | 78.3% | away_-1.5 | 21.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 63.8% | under_20.5 | 36.2% | over_22.5 | 49.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 50.6% | over_24.5 | 35.6% | under_24.5 | 64.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 69.7% | under_9.5 | 30.3% | over_11.5 | 49.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 50.3% | over_13.5 | 31.2% | under_13.5 | 68.8% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 62.2% | under_9.5 | 37.8% | over_11.5 | 41.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 58.6% | over_13.5 | 23.9% | under_13.5 | 76.1% |
most
| home | 52.3% | draw | 7.2% | away | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 31.1% | away_+3.5 | 68.9% | home_-0.5 | 52.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 47.8% | home_+2.5 | 72.8% | away_-2.5 | 27.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 15.6% | no | 84.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.7% | no | 96.3% |
|---|
away
| yes | 12.3% | no | 87.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: St. Gilloise predictions · Waregem predictions · Pro League
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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