Ajax vs Heerenveen: model prediction
EredivisieOver 1.5 goals
Ajax or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Ajax at 56.2%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 58.1% and it landed (4 goals). We called Yes at 57.3% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"When model and market disagree on Ajax, that gap is the story." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Ajax heavy favourites at 56% when Ajax meet Heerenveen in the Eredivisie on 16 August 2026. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Ajax higher (67%) than our model does. Totals sit close to the fence: 58% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 57%. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Ajax, 2 draws and 1 for Heerenveen at 2.0 goals per match. Recent form reads W3 D2 L1 for Ajax against W3 D1 L2 for Heerenveen. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
56.2%-10.8%
23.0%+2.6%
20.7%+8.1%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13)
Goals markets
High probability
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Ajax 2 · 2 draws · Heerenveen 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Ajax
Heerenveen0.0%0.0%
0.0%0.0%
100.0%100.0%
League averages this season: 2.78 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 44%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 83.9% | Over 7.5 | 75.3% | Over 8.5 | 65.3% | Over 9.5 | 54.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Ajax | 59.7% | Most: Heerenveen | 30.1% | ||||
| Ajax Over 4.2 | 64.6% | Heerenveen Over 4.2 | 43.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 57.5% | Over 3.5 | 35.1% | Over 4.5 | 18.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Ajax | 29.2% | Most: Heerenveen | 47.0% | ||
| Ajax Over 1.8 | 37.1% | Heerenveen Over 1.8 | 50.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Ajax clean sheet | 33.1% |
|---|---|
| Heerenveen clean sheet | 14.6% |
| Ajax win to nil | 27.7% |
| Heerenveen win to nil | 9.2% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 56.3% | draw | 23.0% | away | 20.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 79.3% | 12 | 77.0% | X2 | 43.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 73.1% | away | 26.9% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 57.3% | no | 42.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 33.5% | away | 14.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 28.1% | away | 9.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.9% | home_by_2 | 17.3% | home_by_3plus | 16.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 12.8% | away_by_2 | 5.6% | away_by_3plus | 2.3% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 5.4% | 0-1 | 4.8% | 0-2 | 2.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.1% | 0-4 | 0.3% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 8.9% | 1-1 | 10.8% | 1-2 | 5.6% |
| 1-3 | 2.1% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.1% | 2-1 | 9.9% | 2-2 | 5.4% |
| 2-3 | 2.0% | 2-4 | 0.5% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 5.8% | 3-1 | 6.4% | 3-2 | 3.5% |
| 3-3 | 1.3% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 2.8% | 4-1 | 3.1% | 4-2 | 1.7% |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 1.1% | 5-1 | 1.2% | 5-2 | 0.6% |
| 5-3 | 0.2% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.5% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 10.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 94.6% | under_0.5 | 5.4% | over_1.5 | 80.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 19.1% | over_2.5 | 58.1% | under_2.5 | 41.9% |
| over_3.5 | 35.7% | under_3.5 | 64.3% | over_4.5 | 18.8% |
| under_4.5 | 81.2% | over_5.5 | 8.6% | under_5.5 | 91.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 85.4% | under_0.5 | 14.6% | over_1.5 | 57.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 42.6% | over_2.5 | 30.3% | under_2.5 | 69.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 66.5% | under_0.5 | 33.5% | over_1.5 | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.1% | over_2.5 | 9.9% | under_2.5 | 90.1% |
most
| home | 56.3% | draw | 23.0% | away | 20.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 16.0% | away_+2.5 | 84.0% | home_-1.5 | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 66.7% | home_-0.5 | 56.3% | away_+0.5 | 43.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 79.3% | away_-0.5 | 20.7% | home_+1.5 | 92.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 7.9% | home_+2.5 | 97.7% | away_-2.5 | 2.3% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 5.4% | exact_1 | 13.7% | exact_2 | 22.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.4% | exact_4 | 16.9% | exact_5 | 10.2% |
| exact_6 | 5.1% | exact_7plus | 3.5% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 51.9% | draw | 34.6% | away | 13.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.0% | under_0.5 | 24.0% | over_1.5 | 41.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 58.2% | over_2.5 | 17.3% | under_2.5 | 82.7% |
btts
| yes | 20.7% | no | 79.3% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 24.0% | exact_1 | 34.2% | exact_2 | 24.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 11.6% | exact_4plus | 5.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 39.2% | draw | 35.4% | away | 25.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 79.1% | under_0.5 | 20.9% | over_1.5 | 46.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.6% | over_2.5 | 20.8% | under_2.5 | 79.2% |
btts
| yes | 28.8% | no | 71.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 43.0% | H/D | 6.5% | H/A | 2.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.6% | D/D | 12.3% | D/A | 8.8% |
| A/H | 1.7% | A/D | 3.0% | A/A | 8.8% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 78.3% | under_7.5 | 21.7% | over_8.5 | 67.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 32.1% | over_9.5 | 56.5% | under_9.5 | 43.6% |
| over_10.5 | 44.9% | under_10.5 | 55.1% | over_11.5 | 34.1% |
| under_11.5 | 65.9% | over_12.5 | 24.8% | under_12.5 | 75.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 76.5% | under_3.5 | 23.5% | over_4.5 | 62.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 37.4% | over_5.5 | 48.2% | under_5.5 | 51.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 63.5% | under_3.5 | 36.5% | over_4.5 | 47.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.8% | over_5.5 | 32.6% | under_5.5 | 67.4% |
most
| home | 55.3% | draw | 9.7% | away | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 26.9% | away_+3.5 | 73.1% | home_-1.5 | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 54.7% | home_-0.5 | 55.3% | away_+0.5 | 44.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 64.9% | away_-0.5 | 35.1% | home_+1.5 | 73.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 26.3% | home_+3.5 | 87.2% | away_-3.5 | 12.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 72.4% | under_22.5 | 27.6% | over_24.5 | 62.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 38.0% | over_26.5 | 51.1% | under_26.5 | 48.9% |
| over_28.5 | 40.2% | under_28.5 | 59.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 77.7% | under_10.5 | 22.3% | over_12.5 | 64.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 35.7% | over_14.5 | 49.9% | under_14.5 | 50.1% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 60.9% | under_10.5 | 39.1% | over_12.5 | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 55.3% | over_14.5 | 30.4% | under_14.5 | 69.6% |
most
| home | 61.1% | draw | 5.3% | away | 33.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 39.0% | away_+4.5 | 61.0% | home_-2.5 | 50.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 50.0% | home_-0.5 | 61.1% | away_+0.5 | 39.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.3% | away_-0.5 | 33.7% | home_+2.5 | 75.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 24.2% | home_+4.5 | 83.6% | away_-4.5 | 16.4% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 83.9% | under_6.5 | 16.1% | over_7.5 | 75.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 24.7% | over_8.5 | 65.3% | under_8.5 | 34.7% |
| over_9.5 | 54.7% | under_9.5 | 45.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 78.0% | under_3.5 | 22.0% | over_4.5 | 64.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 35.4% | over_5.5 | 50.5% | under_5.5 | 49.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.2% | under_3.5 | 39.8% | over_4.5 | 43.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.5% | over_5.5 | 29.1% | under_5.5 | 70.9% |
most
| home | 59.7% | draw | 10.2% | away | 30.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 38.2% | away_+2.5 | 61.8% | home_-0.5 | 59.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 40.3% | home_+0.5 | 69.9% | away_-0.5 | 30.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.8% | away_-2.5 | 14.2% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 57.5% | under_2.5 | 42.5% | over_3.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 64.9% | over_4.5 | 18.4% | under_4.5 | 81.6% |
| over_5.5 | 8.3% | under_5.5 | 91.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.9% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 37.1% | under_1.5 | 62.9% | over_2.5 | 14.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 85.9% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 50.7% | under_1.5 | 49.3% | over_2.5 | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 75.7% |
most
| home | 29.2% | draw | 23.8% | away | 47.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 12.5% | away_+1.5 | 87.5% | home_-0.5 | 29.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 70.8% | home_+0.5 | 53.0% | away_-0.5 | 47.0% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.0% | away_-1.5 | 25.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 50.1% | under_20.5 | 49.9% | over_22.5 | 34.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 65.1% | over_24.5 | 22.3% | under_24.5 | 77.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 43.1% | under_9.5 | 56.9% | over_11.5 | 22.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 77.1% | over_13.5 | 10.1% | under_13.5 | 89.9% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 69.3% | under_9.5 | 30.7% | over_11.5 | 48.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 51.6% | over_13.5 | 29.2% | under_13.5 | 70.8% |
most
| home | 28.0% | draw | 7.1% | away | 64.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 11.7% | away_+3.5 | 88.3% | home_-0.5 | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 72.1% | home_+2.5 | 50.8% | away_-2.5 | 49.2% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 14.0% | no | 86.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.0% | no | 95.0% |
|---|
away
| yes | 9.5% | no | 90.5% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Ajax predictions · Heerenveen predictions · Eredivisie
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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