Twente vs Zwolle: model prediction
EredivisieTwente or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Twente at 67.3%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 62.7% and it landed (4 goals). We called Yes at 55.3% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"Twente or Zwolle? We publish probabilities, not certainties." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Twente heavy favourites at 67% when Twente meet Zwolle in the Eredivisie on 16 August 2026. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Twente at 76%. Caution noted. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 63% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 55%. Recent form reads W2 D2 L2 for Twente against W1 D1 L4 for Zwolle. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 1 wins for Twente, 3 draws and 1 for Zwolle at 2.0 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.09).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
67.3%-8.2%
19.2%+3.9%
13.6%+4.4%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.09)
Goals markets
High probability
Strong chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Twente 1 · 3 draws · Zwolle 1 · 2.0 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Twente
Zwolle0.0%0.0%
0.0%0.0%
0.0%0.0%
League averages this season: 2.78 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 44%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 83.6% | Over 7.5 | 74.9% | Over 8.5 | 64.9% | Over 9.5 | 54.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Twente | 68.4% | Most: Zwolle | 22.4% | ||||
| Twente Over 4.2 | 69.4% | Zwolle Over 4.2 | 35.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 57.4% | Over 3.5 | 35.0% | Over 4.5 | 18.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Twente | 24.4% | Most: Zwolle | 52.6% | ||
| Twente Over 1.8 | 32.6% | Zwolle Over 1.8 | 54.3% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Twente clean sheet | 37.9% |
|---|---|
| Zwolle clean sheet | 10.1% |
| Twente win to nil | 33.5% |
| Zwolle win to nil | 5.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 67.3% | draw | 19.2% | away | 13.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 86.4% | 12 | 80.8% | X2 | 32.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 83.2% | away | 16.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 55.3% | no | 44.7% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 39.0% | away | 10.1% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 34.6% | away | 5.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.6% | home_by_2 | 20.1% | home_by_3plus | 24.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 9.0% | away_by_2 | 3.4% | away_by_3plus | 1.2% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.4% | 0-1 | 3.3% | 0-2 | 1.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 0.5% | 0-4 | 0.1% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 8.6% | 1-1 | 8.9% | 1-2 | 4.0% |
| 1-3 | 1.3% | 1-4 | 0.3% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.4% | 2-1 | 9.8% | 2-2 | 4.6% |
| 2-3 | 1.4% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 7.9% | 3-1 | 7.4% | 3-2 | 3.5% |
| 3-3 | 1.1% | 3-4 | 0.3% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 4.5% | 4-1 | 4.3% | 4-2 | 2.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.6% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 2.1% | 5-1 | 2.0% | 5-2 | 0.9% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 3.0% |
likeliest_score
| h | 200.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 10.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.6% | under_0.5 | 4.4% | over_1.5 | 83.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 16.3% | over_2.5 | 62.7% | under_2.5 | 37.3% |
| over_3.5 | 40.5% | under_3.5 | 59.5% | over_4.5 | 22.6% |
| under_4.5 | 77.5% | over_5.5 | 10.9% | under_5.5 | 89.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.1% | even | 50.9% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 89.9% | under_0.5 | 10.1% | over_1.5 | 66.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 33.3% | over_2.5 | 40.2% | under_2.5 | 59.8% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 61.0% | under_0.5 | 39.0% | over_1.5 | 24.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 75.7% | over_2.5 | 7.0% | under_2.5 | 93.0% |
most
| home | 67.3% | draw | 19.2% | away | 13.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 24.6% | away_+2.5 | 75.4% | home_-1.5 | 44.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 55.3% | home_-0.5 | 67.3% | away_+0.5 | 32.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 86.4% | away_-0.5 | 13.6% | home_+1.5 | 95.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 4.6% | home_+2.5 | 98.9% | away_-2.5 | 1.2% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.4% | exact_1 | 11.9% | exact_2 | 21.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.2% | exact_4 | 18.0% | exact_5 | 11.6% |
| exact_6 | 6.3% | exact_7plus | 4.7% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 45.9% | draw | 37.9% | away | 16.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.0% | under_0.5 | 27.0% | over_1.5 | 37.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.3% | over_2.5 | 14.5% | under_2.5 | 85.5% |
btts
| yes | 20.0% | no | 80.0% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 27.0% | exact_1 | 35.3% | exact_2 | 23.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 10.1% | exact_4plus | 4.4% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 58.8% | draw | 27.1% | away | 14.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 85.9% | under_0.5 | 14.1% | over_1.5 | 58.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 41.7% | over_2.5 | 31.3% | under_2.5 | 68.7% |
btts
| yes | 31.7% | no | 68.3% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 41.4% | H/D | 3.5% | H/A | 1.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 22.3% | D/D | 10.3% | D/A | 5.3% |
| A/H | 4.3% | A/D | 4.3% | A/A | 7.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 76.9% | under_7.5 | 23.1% | over_8.5 | 66.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 33.9% | over_9.5 | 54.5% | under_9.5 | 45.5% |
| over_10.5 | 42.9% | under_10.5 | 57.2% | over_11.5 | 32.2% |
| under_11.5 | 67.8% | over_12.5 | 23.1% | under_12.5 | 76.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.3% | under_3.5 | 22.7% | over_4.5 | 63.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.4% | over_5.5 | 49.3% | under_5.5 | 50.7% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 59.9% | under_3.5 | 40.2% | over_4.5 | 43.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 56.8% | over_5.5 | 28.9% | under_5.5 | 71.1% |
most
| home | 58.4% | draw | 9.6% | away | 32.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.3% | away_+3.5 | 70.7% | home_-1.5 | 48.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 51.7% | home_-0.5 | 58.4% | away_+0.5 | 41.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.0% | away_-0.5 | 32.0% | home_+1.5 | 76.5% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.5% | home_+3.5 | 89.1% | away_-3.5 | 11.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 71.2% | under_22.5 | 28.8% | over_24.5 | 60.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 39.4% | over_26.5 | 49.5% | under_26.5 | 50.5% |
| over_28.5 | 38.5% | under_28.5 | 61.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 80.1% | under_10.5 | 19.9% | over_12.5 | 67.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 32.6% | over_14.5 | 53.3% | under_14.5 | 46.8% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 55.0% | under_10.5 | 45.0% | over_12.5 | 38.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 61.4% | over_14.5 | 25.0% | under_14.5 | 75.0% |
most
| home | 67.3% | draw | 4.9% | away | 27.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 45.3% | away_+4.5 | 54.7% | home_-2.5 | 56.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 43.4% | home_-0.5 | 67.3% | away_+0.5 | 32.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 72.2% | away_-0.5 | 27.8% | home_+2.5 | 80.8% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.2% | home_+4.5 | 87.6% | away_-4.5 | 12.5% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 83.6% | under_6.5 | 16.4% | over_7.5 | 74.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 25.1% | over_8.5 | 64.9% | under_8.5 | 35.1% |
| over_9.5 | 54.3% | under_9.5 | 45.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 81.6% | under_3.5 | 18.4% | over_4.5 | 69.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 30.6% | over_5.5 | 56.0% | under_5.5 | 44.0% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 52.8% | under_3.5 | 47.2% | over_4.5 | 35.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 64.2% | over_5.5 | 22.4% | under_5.5 | 77.6% |
most
| home | 68.4% | draw | 9.2% | away | 22.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 47.1% | away_+2.5 | 52.9% | home_-0.5 | 68.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 31.6% | home_+0.5 | 77.6% | away_-0.5 | 22.4% |
| home_+2.5 | 90.6% | away_-2.5 | 9.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 57.5% | under_2.5 | 42.6% | over_3.5 | 35.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 65.0% | over_4.5 | 18.3% | under_4.5 | 81.7% |
| over_5.5 | 8.3% | under_5.5 | 91.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.9% | even | 50.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 32.6% | under_1.5 | 67.4% | over_2.5 | 11.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 88.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 54.3% | under_1.5 | 45.7% | over_2.5 | 27.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 72.5% |
most
| home | 24.4% | draw | 23.0% | away | 52.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 9.6% | away_+1.5 | 90.4% | home_-0.5 | 24.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 75.6% | home_+0.5 | 47.4% | away_-0.5 | 52.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 70.5% | away_-1.5 | 29.5% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 54.2% | under_20.5 | 45.8% | over_22.5 | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 61.1% | over_24.5 | 25.5% | under_24.5 | 74.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 54.8% | under_9.5 | 45.2% | over_11.5 | 33.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 67.0% | over_13.5 | 16.9% | under_13.5 | 83.1% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 64.8% | under_9.5 | 35.2% | over_11.5 | 43.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 56.7% | over_13.5 | 24.8% | under_13.5 | 75.2% |
most
| home | 38.7% | draw | 7.8% | away | 53.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 19.0% | away_+3.5 | 81.0% | home_-0.5 | 38.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.3% | home_+2.5 | 62.1% | away_-2.5 | 37.9% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 16.0% | no | 84.0% |
|---|
home
| yes | 4.5% | no | 95.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 12.1% | no | 87.9% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Twente predictions · Zwolle predictions · Eredivisie
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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