Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Swindon56.8%
Win probability · fair 1.76
Top signals
Swindon or drawVery likely80.3%Fair 1.25
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely78.6%Fair 1.27
Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.6%Fair 1.57
Model read
▾
"57% on Swindon is a measurement, not a promise." The numbers leave little room for romance here: Swindon at 57% against Accrington Stanley, League Two, 26 September 2026. Totals sit close to the fence: 55% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 54%. Accrington Stanley are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Draw or Accrington Stanley43.1%@ 2.32
Over 10.5 corners42.9%@ 2.33
Over 11.5 corners33.5%@ 2.99
Medium risk
Over 2.5 goals54.8%@ 1.82
Both teams to score54.2%@ 1.85
Over 9.5 corners53.1%@ 1.88
Random finds
1-1 correct score11.2%@ 8.95
1-0 correct score10.0%@ 9.99
2-1 correct score9.9%@ 10.10
Model vs market
Swindon
56.8%
Draw
23.5%
Accrington
19.6%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely78.6%Fair 1.27
Over 2.5Close call54.8%Fair 1.82
BTTS · YesClose call54.2%Fair 1.85
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely63.6%Fair 1.57
Over 9.5 cornersClose call53.1%Fair 1.88
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely42.9%Fair 2.33
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely33.5%Fair 2.99
Most cornersSwindon54.0%Accrington Stanley35.5%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsClose call57.5%Fair 1.74
Over 24.5 shotsUnlikely44.7%Fair 2.24
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely32.8%Fair 3.05
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot22.7%Fair 4.41
Recent shot volume
Swindon7.8 taken16.2 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.578.6%2.554.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.578.6%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Swindon win1.76
Draw4.25
Accrington Stanley win5.09
Both teams to score1.85
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.27
Over 2.5 goals1.83
Over 3.5 goals3.08
Swindon most1.76
Accrington Stanley most5.09
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.31
Over 8.5 corners1.52
Over 9.5 corners1.83
Over 10.5 corners2.32
Swindon most1.85
Accrington Stanley most2.81
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.53
Over 3.5 cards2.29
Over 4.5 cards3.98
Over 5.5 cards7.92
Swindon most2.76
Accrington Stanley most2.44
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.49
Over 7.5 SoT1.84
Over 8.5 SoT2.38
Over 9.5 SoT3.24
Swindon most1.89
Accrington Stanley most2.90
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.74
Over 24.5 shots2.24
Over 26.5 shots3.05
Over 28.5 shots4.41
Swindon most1.77
Accrington Stanley most2.69
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.82
Over 22.5 fouls2.56
Over 24.5 fouls3.96
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
57.5%
Over 24.5
44.7%
Over 26.5
32.8%
Over 28.5
22.7%
Most: Swindon
56.5%
Most: Accrington Stanley
37.2%
Swindon Over 13.2
40.9%
Accrington Stanley Over 13.2
27.7%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
67.0%
Over 7.5
54.4%
Over 8.5
42.0%
Over 9.5
30.9%
Most: Swindon
52.9%
Most: Accrington Stanley
34.5%
Swindon Over 4.2
44.4%
Accrington Stanley Over 4.2
31.3%
Cards
Over 2.5
65.5%
Over 3.5
43.6%
Over 4.5
25.1%
Most: Swindon
36.3%
Most: Accrington Stanley
41.0%
Swindon Over 1.8
48.5%
Accrington Stanley Over 1.8
52.0%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Swindon clean sheet
36.0%
Accrington Stanley clean sheet
15.5%
Swindon win to nil
29.8%
Accrington Stanley win to nil
9.3%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
56.8%
draw
23.5%
away
19.6%
double_chance
1X
80.4%
12
76.5%
X2
43.2%
dnb
home
74.3%
away
25.7%
btts
yes
54.2%
no
45.8%
clean_sheet
home
36.5%
away
15.5%
win_to_nil
home
30.3%
away
9.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1
23.5%
home_by_2
17.6%
home_by_3plus
15.7%
away_by_1
12.5%
away_by_2
5.2%
away_by_3plus
2.0%
correct_score
0-0
6.2%
0-1
5.2%
0-2
2.9%
0-3
1.0%
0-4
0.2%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
10.0%
1-1
11.2%
1-2
5.4%
1-3
1.8%
1-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-0
9.8%
2-1
9.9%
2-2
5.0%
2-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
6.2%
3-2
3.1%
3-3
1.0%
3-4
0.3%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
2.8%
4-1
2.9%
4-2
1.5%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.1%
4-5
0.0%
5-0
1.1%
5-1
1.1%
5-2
0.5%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
1.3%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
11.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
93.8%
under_0.5
6.2%
over_1.5
78.6%
under_1.5
21.4%
over_2.5
54.8%
under_2.5
45.2%
over_3.5
32.4%
under_3.5
67.6%
over_4.5
16.4%
under_4.5
83.6%
over_5.5
7.2%
under_5.5
92.8%
odd_even
odd
48.8%
even
51.2%
team_home
over_0.5
84.5%
under_0.5
15.5%
over_1.5
55.6%
under_1.5
44.4%
over_2.5
28.6%
under_2.5
71.4%
team_away
over_0.5
63.5%
under_0.5
36.5%
over_1.5
26.8%
under_1.5
73.3%
over_2.5
8.2%
under_2.5
91.8%
most
home
56.8%
draw
23.5%
away
19.6%
handicap
home_-2.5
15.7%
away_+2.5
84.3%
home_-1.5
33.3%
away_+1.5
66.7%
home_-0.5
56.8%
away_+0.5
43.2%
home_+0.5
80.4%
away_-0.5
19.6%
home_+1.5
92.9%
away_-1.5
7.1%
home_+2.5
98.1%
away_-2.5
2.0%
total_exact
exact_0
6.2%
exact_1
15.2%
exact_2
23.9%
exact_3
22.3%
exact_4
16.0%
exact_5
9.2%
exact_6
4.4%
exact_7plus
2.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
30.0%
draw
41.7%
away
28.3%
total
over_0.5
70.3%
under_0.5
29.7%
over_1.5
34.2%
under_1.5
65.8%
over_2.5
12.3%
under_2.5
87.7%
btts
yes
20.7%
no
79.3%
total_exact
exact_0
29.7%
exact_1
36.1%
exact_2
21.9%
exact_3
8.9%
exact_4plus
3.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
41.3%
draw
34.5%
away
24.2%
total
over_0.5
80.2%
under_0.5
19.8%
over_1.5
48.1%
under_1.5
51.9%
over_2.5
22.1%
under_2.5
77.9%
btts
yes
29.8%
no
70.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
24.3%
H/D
4.2%
H/A
1.5%
D/H
17.2%
D/D
14.4%
D/A
10.1%
A/H
3.6%
A/D
6.1%
A/A
18.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
76.6%
under_7.5
23.4%
over_8.5
66.0%
under_8.5
34.0%
over_9.5
54.5%
under_9.5
45.5%
over_10.5
43.2%
under_10.5
56.9%
over_11.5
32.7%
under_11.5
67.3%
over_12.5
23.7%
under_12.5
76.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
75.6%
under_3.5
24.4%
over_4.5
61.1%
under_4.5
38.9%
over_5.5
46.2%
under_5.5
53.8%
team_away
over_3.5
64.0%
under_3.5
36.0%
over_4.5
47.3%
under_4.5
52.7%
over_5.5
32.4%
under_5.5
67.6%
most
home
54.1%
draw
10.4%
away
35.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
24.5%
away_+3.5
75.5%
home_-1.5
43.4%
away_+1.5
56.6%
home_-0.5
54.1%
away_+0.5
46.0%
home_+0.5
64.4%
away_-0.5
35.6%
home_+1.5
73.8%
away_-1.5
26.2%
home_+3.5
87.8%
away_-3.5
12.2%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
57.5%
under_22.5
42.5%
over_24.5
44.7%
under_24.5
55.3%
over_26.5
32.8%
under_26.5
67.2%
over_28.5
22.7%
under_28.5
77.3%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
66.8%
under_10.5
33.2%
over_12.5
49.3%
under_12.5
50.7%
over_14.5
33.1%
under_14.5
66.9%
team_away
over_10.5
53.7%
under_10.5
46.3%
over_12.5
35.5%
under_12.5
64.5%
over_14.5
21.1%
under_14.5
78.9%
most
home
56.5%
draw
6.3%
away
37.2%
handicap
home_-4.5
31.2%
away_+4.5
68.8%
home_-2.5
43.5%
away_+2.5
56.5%
home_-0.5
56.5%
away_+0.5
43.5%
home_+0.5
62.8%
away_-0.5
37.2%
home_+2.5
74.4%
away_-2.5
25.6%
home_+4.5
83.7%
away_-4.5
16.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
67.0%
under_6.5
33.0%
over_7.5
54.4%
under_7.5
45.6%
over_8.5
42.0%
under_8.5
58.0%
over_9.5
30.9%
under_9.5
69.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
61.5%
under_3.5
38.6%
over_4.5
44.4%
under_4.5
55.6%
over_5.5
29.6%
under_5.5
70.4%
team_away
over_3.5
48.5%
under_3.5
51.5%
over_4.5
31.4%
under_4.5
68.7%
over_5.5
18.5%
under_5.5
81.5%
most
home
52.8%
draw
12.6%
away
34.5%
handicap
home_-2.5
28.4%
away_+2.5
71.6%
home_-0.5
52.8%
away_+0.5
47.2%
home_+0.5
65.5%
away_-0.5
34.5%
home_+2.5
85.2%
away_-2.5
14.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
65.5%
under_2.5
34.5%
over_3.5
43.6%
under_3.5
56.4%
over_4.5
25.1%
under_4.5
74.9%
over_5.5
12.6%
under_5.5
87.4%
odd_even
odd
49.9%
even
50.1%
team_home
over_1.5
48.5%
under_1.5
51.5%
over_2.5
22.5%
under_2.5
77.5%
team_away
over_1.5
52.0%
under_1.5
48.0%
over_2.5
25.5%
under_2.5
74.6%
most
home
36.3%
draw
22.7%
away
41.0%
handicap
home_-1.5
18.0%
away_+1.5
82.0%
home_-0.5
36.3%
away_+0.5
63.7%
home_+0.5
59.0%
away_-0.5
41.0%
home_+1.5
78.6%
away_-1.5
21.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
55.1%
under_20.5
44.9%
over_22.5
39.1%
under_22.5
60.9%
over_24.5
25.3%
under_24.5
74.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
56.0%
under_9.5
44.0%
over_11.5
33.4%
under_11.5
66.6%
over_13.5
16.6%
under_13.5
83.4%
team_away
over_9.5
65.7%
under_9.5
34.3%
over_11.5
43.4%
under_11.5
56.6%
over_13.5
24.2%
under_13.5
75.8%
most
home
38.8%
draw
8.0%
away
53.2%
handicap
home_-3.5
18.4%
away_+3.5
81.6%
home_-0.5
38.8%
away_+0.5
61.2%
home_+2.5
62.9%
away_-2.5
37.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
13.5%
no
86.5%
home
yes
6.8%
no
93.2%
away
yes
7.2%
no
92.8%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
League Two