Rotherham vs Crewe Alexandra prediction & probabilities (2026-09-26)

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Rotherham vs Crewe Alexandra: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 20 Sep 2026

League Two
Rotherham

DWDLD

Sat, 26 Sep 202626/915:00UK
Crewe Alexandra
Model’s top convictions

72%

Over 1.5 goals

70%

Rotherham or draw

60%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Rotherham41.8%

Win probability · fair 2.39

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsLikely71.7%Fair 1.39
Rotherham or drawLikely69.9%Fair 1.43
Over 8.5 cornersClose call59.6%Fair 1.68

Model read

Rotherham versus Crewe Alexandra on 26 September 2026 tilts towards Rotherham in our numbers (42%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. No strong lean on goals (45% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Rotherham are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 2.5 goals45.3%@ 2.21
Over 10.5 corners38.6%@ 2.59
Crewe Alexandra win30.1%@ 3.32
Medium risk

Draw or Crewe Alexandra58.2%@ 1.72
Under 2.5 goals54.7%@ 1.83
Both teams to score50.9%@ 1.96
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.4%@ 7.48
1-0 correct score10.7%@ 9.33
0-0 correct score8.9%@ 11.19

Model vs market

Rotherham

41.8%

Draw

28.1%

Alexandra

30.1%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely71.7%Fair 1.39
Over 2.5Close call45.3%Fair 2.21
BTTS · YesClose call50.9%Fair 1.96

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call59.6%Fair 1.68
Over 9.5 cornersClose call48.8%Fair 2.05
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely38.6%Fair 2.59
Over 11.5 cornersLong shot29.4%Fair 3.40
Most cornersRotherham53.2%Crewe Alexandra35.9%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsClose call59.2%Fair 1.69
Over 24.5 shotsClose call46.4%Fair 2.16
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely34.4%Fair 2.91
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot24.0%Fair 4.17

Recent shot volume

Rotherham13.8 taken10.7 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.571.7%2.545.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.571.7%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

RotherhamDWDLD

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

RotherhamCrewe Alexandra
League position#16 of 27#25 of 27
Record W-D-L1-3-20-1-0
Current streakD1D1
Points per game1.00·
Record, home vs away1-2-00-1-0
PPG, home vs away1.67·
Goals scored per game1.50·
Goals conceded per game1.67·
Scored, home vs away2.00·
Conceded, home vs away1.67·
1st half goals per game0.67·
2nd half goals per game0.83·
Corners won per game3.8·
Cards per game2.2·
Fouls per game12.0·
Red cards this season0·
Shots per game13.8·
Shots faced per game10.7·
Shots on target per game4.2·
Over 2.5 rate

66.7%·

BTTS rate

83.3%·

Clean sheets

0.0%·

Rates this season:RotherhamCrewe Alexandra

League averages this season: 2.65 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 49% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Rotherham win2.39
Draw3.56
Crewe Alexandra win3.33
Both teams to score1.97

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.40
Over 2.5 goals2.21
Over 3.5 goals4.17
Rotherham most2.39
Crewe Alexandra most3.33

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.37
Over 8.5 corners1.62
Over 9.5 corners2.01
Over 10.5 corners2.61
Rotherham most1.87
Crewe Alexandra most2.78

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.38
Over 3.5 cards1.92
Over 4.5 cards3.05
Over 5.5 cards5.53
Rotherham most2.93
Crewe Alexandra most2.24

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.51
Over 7.5 SoT1.86
Over 8.5 SoT2.42
Over 9.5 SoT3.30
Rotherham most1.89
Crewe Alexandra most2.90

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.69
Over 24.5 shots2.16
Over 26.5 shots2.91
Over 28.5 shots4.17
Rotherham most1.72
Crewe Alexandra most2.81

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.52
Over 22.5 fouls1.99
Over 24.5 fouls2.84
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 59.2% Over 24.5 46.4% Over 26.5 34.4% Over 28.5 24.0%
Most: Rotherham 58.2% Most: Crewe Alexandra 35.6%
Rotherham Over 13.2 43.2% Crewe Alexandra Over 13.2 27.7%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.4% Over 7.5 53.7% Over 8.5 41.4% Over 9.5 30.3%
Most: Rotherham 52.8% Most: Crewe Alexandra 34.5%
Rotherham Over 4.2 44.0% Crewe Alexandra Over 4.2 30.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.7% Over 3.5 52.2% Over 4.5 32.7%
Most: Rotherham 34.1% Most: Crewe Alexandra 44.7%
Rotherham Over 1.8 52.3% Crewe Alexandra Over 1.8 60.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Rotherham clean sheet 32.5%
Crewe Alexandra clean sheet 25.4%
Rotherham win to nil 23.6%
Crewe Alexandra win to nil 16.5%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 41.8% draw 28.1% away 30.1%
double_chance
1X 69.9% 12 71.9% X2 58.2%
dnb
home 58.2% away 41.8%
btts
yes 50.9% no 49.1%
clean_sheet
home 32.6% away 25.5%
win_to_nil
home 23.7% away 16.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.0% home_by_2 12.6% home_by_3plus 7.3%
away_by_1 17.9% away_by_2 8.5% away_by_3plus 3.8%
correct_score
0-0 8.9% 0-1 8.7% 0-2 5.2%
0-3 2.0% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.7% 1-1 13.4% 1-2 7.1%
1-3 2.7% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.8% 2-1 8.7% 2-2 4.9%
2-3 1.8% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.5% 3-1 4.0% 3-2 2.2%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.2% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.1% under_0.5 8.9% over_1.5 71.7%
under_1.5 28.3% over_2.5 45.3% under_2.5 54.7%
over_3.5 24.0% under_3.5 76.0% over_4.5 10.7%
under_4.5 89.3% over_5.5 4.1% under_5.5 95.9%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 74.5% under_0.5 25.5% over_1.5 39.7%
under_1.5 60.3% over_2.5 15.9% under_2.5 84.1%
team_away
over_0.5 67.4% under_0.5 32.6% over_1.5 30.9%
under_1.5 69.2% over_2.5 10.4% under_2.5 89.6%
most
home 41.8% draw 28.1% away 30.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.3% away_+2.5 92.7% home_-1.5 19.9%
away_+1.5 80.1% home_-0.5 41.8% away_+0.5 58.2%
home_+0.5 69.9% away_-0.5 30.1% home_+1.5 87.8%
away_-1.5 12.2% home_+2.5 96.3% away_-2.5 3.8%
total_exact
exact_0 8.9% exact_1 19.4% exact_2 26.4%
exact_3 21.3% exact_4 13.3% exact_5 6.6%
exact_6 2.7% exact_7plus 1.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.5% draw 38.5% away 31.0%
total
over_0.5 75.1% under_0.5 24.9% over_1.5 40.4%
under_1.5 59.6% over_2.5 16.4% under_2.5 83.6%
btts
yes 25.1% no 74.9%
total_exact
exact_0 24.9% exact_1 34.6% exact_2 24.1%
exact_3 11.1% exact_4plus 5.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.3% draw 36.6% away 25.1%
total
over_0.5 77.4% under_0.5 22.6% over_1.5 43.7%
under_1.5 56.3% over_2.5 18.8% under_2.5 81.2%
btts
yes 26.9% no 73.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 24.6% H/D 4.4% H/A 1.5%
D/H 14.8% D/D 14.1% D/A 9.7%
A/H 3.2% A/D 6.3% A/A 21.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 72.9% under_7.5 27.1% over_8.5 61.6%
under_8.5 38.4% over_9.5 49.7% under_9.5 50.3%
over_10.5 38.4% under_10.5 61.6% over_11.5 28.3%
under_11.5 71.7% over_12.5 20.0% under_12.5 80.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.8% under_3.5 27.2% over_4.5 57.6%
under_4.5 42.4% over_5.5 42.5% under_5.5 57.5%
team_away
over_3.5 61.5% under_3.5 38.5% over_4.5 44.5%
under_4.5 55.5% over_5.5 29.8% under_5.5 70.2%
most
home 53.3% draw 10.7% away 36.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.2% away_+3.5 76.8% home_-1.5 42.4%
away_+1.5 57.6% home_-0.5 53.3% away_+0.5 46.7%
home_+0.5 64.0% away_-0.5 36.0% home_+1.5 73.7%
away_-1.5 26.3% home_+3.5 88.1% away_-3.5 11.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.2% under_22.5 40.8% over_24.5 46.4%
under_24.5 53.6% over_26.5 34.4% under_26.5 65.6%
over_28.5 24.0% under_28.5 76.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 68.9% under_10.5 31.2% over_12.5 51.7%
under_12.5 48.3% over_14.5 35.3% under_14.5 64.7%
team_away
over_10.5 53.6% under_10.5 46.4% over_12.5 35.4%
under_12.5 64.6% over_14.5 21.1% under_14.5 79.0%
most
home 58.2% draw 6.2% away 35.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.9% away_+4.5 67.1% home_-2.5 45.3%
away_+2.5 54.7% home_-0.5 58.2% away_+0.5 41.8%
home_+0.5 64.4% away_-0.5 35.6% home_+2.5 75.6%
away_-2.5 24.4% home_+4.5 84.6% away_-4.5 15.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.4% under_6.5 33.6% over_7.5 53.8%
under_7.5 46.3% over_8.5 41.4% under_8.5 58.6%
over_9.5 30.3% under_9.5 69.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 61.0% under_3.5 39.0% over_4.5 44.0%
under_4.5 56.0% over_5.5 29.2% under_5.5 70.8%
team_away
over_3.5 48.0% under_3.5 52.0% over_4.5 30.9%
under_4.5 69.1% over_5.5 18.2% under_5.5 81.8%
most
home 52.8% draw 12.7% away 34.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.3% away_+2.5 71.7% home_-0.5 52.8%
away_+0.5 47.2% home_+0.5 65.5% away_-0.5 34.5%
home_+2.5 85.3% away_-2.5 14.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.7% under_2.5 27.3% over_3.5 52.2%
under_3.5 47.8% over_4.5 32.8% under_4.5 67.3%
over_5.5 18.1% under_5.5 81.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 52.3% under_1.5 47.7% over_2.5 25.7%
under_2.5 74.3%
team_away
over_1.5 60.0% under_1.5 40.0% over_2.5 32.9%
under_2.5 67.1%
most
home 34.1% draw 21.2% away 44.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.2% away_+1.5 82.8% home_-0.5 34.1%
away_+0.5 65.9% home_+0.5 55.3% away_-0.5 44.7%
home_+1.5 74.7% away_-1.5 25.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 65.7% under_20.5 34.3% over_22.5 50.2%
under_22.5 49.8% over_24.5 35.2% under_24.5 64.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 65.5% under_9.5 34.5% over_11.5 43.2%
under_11.5 56.8% over_13.5 24.0% under_13.5 76.0%
team_away
over_9.5 70.7% under_9.5 29.3% over_11.5 49.2%
under_11.5 50.8% over_13.5 29.1% under_13.5 70.9%
most
home 41.9% draw 7.8% away 50.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.3% away_+3.5 78.7% home_-0.5 41.9%
away_+0.5 58.1% home_+2.5 65.1% away_-2.5 34.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 22.1% no 77.9%
home
yes 3.0% no 97.0%
away
yes 19.6% no 80.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Rotherham predictions · Crewe Alexandra predictions · League Two

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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League TwoRotherhamCrewe AlexandraTrack record