Valladolid vs Oviedo prediction & probabilities (2026-09-13)

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Valladolid vs Oviedo: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 13 Sep 2026

Segunda División
Valladolid

LLLDW

Sun, 13 Sep 202615:15UK
Oviedo

WDLWD

Model’s top convictions

77%

Valladolid or draw

68%

Over 1.5 goals

59%

Under 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedTrust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
ValladolidWin probability
48.4%
Top 3 convictions

Valladolid or draw76.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Over 1.5 goals67.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.47
Under 2.5 goals59.3%Good chancePays @ 1.69

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Valladolid at 48% for 13 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Valladolid than the market (40%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 41% with both teams to score at 46%. • As a promoted side, Oviedo carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. • Form guide over the last six: Valladolid W1 D1 L4, Oviedo W3 D2 L1. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 4 wins for Valladolid, 0 draws and 1 for Oviedo, averaging 2.6 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. Trust gate: no_trust (segment historically unreliable).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners43.3%@ 2.31
Over 2.5 goals40.7%@ 2.46
Over 10.5 corners33.1%@ 3.02
Medium risk

Not both teams to score54.5%@ 1.83
Over 8.5 corners54.3%@ 1.84
Draw or Oviedo51.6%@ 1.94
Random finds

1-0 correct score13.4%@ 7.48
1-1 correct score13.2%@ 7.58
0-0 correct score10.5%@ 9.49

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Valladolid

48.4%+8.3%

Draw

28.3%-2.7%

Oviedo

23.3%-5.6%

ModelMarket

trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.567.8%

Strong chance

Over 2.540.7%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes45.5%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.554.3%

Good chance

Over 9.543.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.533.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.5%

Low chance

Most cornersValladolid58.1%Oviedo30.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.558.3%

Good chance

Over 24.545.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.533.0%

Toss-up

Over 28.522.6%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Valladolid11.5 taken12.7 faced
Oviedo13.5 taken9.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.567.8%2.540.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.567.8%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Form & head-to-head

ValladolidLLLDW
OviedoWDLWD

Last 5 meetings: Valladolid 4 · 0 draws · Oviedo 1 · 2.6 goals/game.

2024-02-23Valladolid 3-0 Oviedo
2023-09-24Oviedo 0-1 Valladolid
2022-03-13Oviedo 3-0 Valladolid
2021-12-12Valladolid 2-1 Oviedo
2018-04-20Oviedo 1-2 Valladolid

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

ValladolidOviedo
League position#16 of 22#15 of 22
Record W-D-L1-1-21-2-1
Current streakW1D1
Record, home vs away1-0-01-0-0
Red cards this season11

League averages this season: 2.27 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 39% · BTTS in 39%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Valladolid win2.352.07
Draw3.003.53
Oviedo win3.204.29
Over 2.5 goals2.702.46
Under 2.5 goals1.441.69

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Valladolid win2.07
Draw3.53
Oviedo win4.29
Both teams to score2.20

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.12
Over 1.5 goals1.47
Over 2.5 goals2.46
Over 3.5 goals4.93
Valladolid most2.07
Oviedo most4.29

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.46
Over 8.5 corners1.78
Over 9.5 corners2.29
Over 10.5 corners3.10
Valladolid most1.72
Oviedo most3.23

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.12
Over 3.5 cards1.31
Over 4.5 cards1.69
Over 5.5 cards2.40
Valladolid most2.68
Oviedo most2.24

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.49
Over 7.5 SoT1.87
Over 8.5 SoT2.50
Over 9.5 SoT3.55
Valladolid most1.83
Oviedo most3.14

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.71
Over 24.5 shots2.21
Over 26.5 shots3.03
Over 28.5 shots4.43
Valladolid most1.53
Oviedo most3.50

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.15
Over 22.5 fouls1.29
Over 24.5 fouls1.51
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 58.3% Over 24.5 45.2% Over 26.5 33.0% Over 28.5 22.6%
Most: Valladolid 65.5% Most: Oviedo 28.6%
Valladolid Over 13.2 47.3% Oviedo Over 13.2 22.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 67.0% Over 7.5 53.4% Over 8.5 40.0% Over 9.5 28.2%
Most: Valladolid 54.7% Most: Oviedo 31.9%
Valladolid Over 4.2 44.7% Oviedo Over 4.2 28.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 89.0% Over 3.5 76.1% Over 4.5 59.2%
Most: Valladolid 37.4% Most: Oviedo 44.7%
Valladolid Over 1.8 71.0% Oviedo Over 1.8 75.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Valladolid clean sheet 40.6%
Oviedo clean sheet 24.3%
Valladolid win to nil 30.1%
Oviedo win to nil 13.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 48.4% draw 28.3% away 23.3%
double_chance
1X 76.7% 12 71.7% X2 51.6%
dnb
home 67.5% away 32.5%
btts
yes 45.5% no 54.5%
clean_sheet
home 40.7% away 24.3%
win_to_nil
home 30.2% away 13.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 24.3% home_by_2 14.8% home_by_3plus 9.2%
away_by_1 15.3% away_by_2 6.0% away_by_3plus 2.1%
correct_score
0-0 10.5% 0-1 8.3% 0-2 4.0%
0-3 1.2% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 13.4% 1-1 13.2% 1-2 5.7%
1-3 1.7% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.9% 2-1 8.9% 2-2 4.0%
2-3 1.2% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.7% 3-1 4.2% 3-2 1.9%
3-3 0.6% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.7% 4-1 1.5% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.5% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 0.0% p 13.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 89.5% under_0.5 10.5% over_1.5 67.8%
under_1.5 32.2% over_2.5 40.7% under_2.5 59.3%
over_3.5 20.3% under_3.5 79.7% over_4.5 8.5%
under_4.5 91.5% over_5.5 3.1% under_5.5 96.9%
odd_even
odd 48.3% even 51.7%
team_home
over_0.5 75.6% under_0.5 24.3% over_1.5 41.3%
under_1.5 58.7% over_2.5 17.0% under_2.5 83.0%
team_away
over_0.5 59.3% under_0.5 40.7% over_1.5 22.7%
under_1.5 77.3% over_2.5 6.3% under_2.5 93.7%
most
home 48.4% draw 28.3% away 23.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 9.2% away_+2.5 90.8% home_-1.5 24.0%
away_+1.5 76.0% home_-0.5 48.4% away_+0.5 51.6%
home_+0.5 76.7% away_-0.5 23.3% home_+1.5 92.0%
away_-1.5 8.0% home_+2.5 98.0% away_-2.5 2.1%
total_exact
exact_0 10.5% exact_1 21.7% exact_2 27.1%
exact_3 20.4% exact_4 11.8% exact_5 5.5%
exact_6 2.1% exact_7plus 1.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 25.9% draw 50.1% away 24.1%
total
over_0.5 58.2% under_0.5 41.8% over_1.5 21.8%
under_1.5 78.2% over_2.5 5.9% under_2.5 94.2%
btts
yes 12.5% no 87.5%
total_exact
exact_0 41.8% exact_1 36.5% exact_2 15.9%
exact_3 4.6% exact_4plus 1.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 19.8% draw 50.1% away 30.1%
total
over_0.5 57.9% under_0.5 42.1% over_1.5 21.5%
under_1.5 78.5% over_2.5 5.7% under_2.5 94.3%
btts
yes 12.0% no 88.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.3% H/D 5.1% H/A 1.5%
D/H 9.9% D/D 25.1% D/A 15.1%
A/H 0.7% A/D 3.3% A/A 20.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 68.5% under_7.5 31.6% over_8.5 56.1%
under_8.5 43.9% over_9.5 43.7% under_9.5 56.4%
over_10.5 32.2% under_10.5 67.8% over_11.5 22.6%
under_11.5 77.4% over_12.5 15.1% under_12.5 84.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.0% under_3.5 27.0% over_4.5 57.5%
under_4.5 42.5% over_5.5 42.0% under_5.5 58.0%
team_away
over_3.5 54.0% under_3.5 46.0% over_4.5 36.5%
under_4.5 63.5% over_5.5 22.5% under_5.5 77.5%
most
home 58.3% draw 10.8% away 30.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.9% away_+3.5 74.1% home_-1.5 46.9%
away_+1.5 53.1% home_-0.5 58.3% away_+0.5 41.7%
home_+0.5 69.1% away_-0.5 30.9% home_+1.5 78.4%
away_-1.5 21.6% home_+3.5 91.3% away_-3.5 8.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 58.3% under_22.5 41.7% over_24.5 45.2%
under_24.5 54.8% over_26.5 33.0% under_26.5 67.0%
over_28.5 22.6% under_28.5 77.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.8% under_10.5 27.2% over_12.5 56.0%
under_12.5 44.1% over_14.5 39.1% under_14.5 60.9%
team_away
over_10.5 47.5% under_10.5 52.5% over_12.5 29.3%
under_12.5 70.7% over_14.5 16.1% under_14.5 83.9%
most
home 65.5% draw 5.9% away 28.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 39.4% away_+4.5 60.6% home_-2.5 52.5%
away_+2.5 47.5% home_-0.5 65.5% away_+0.5 34.5%
home_+0.5 71.4% away_-0.5 28.6% home_+2.5 81.6%
away_-2.5 18.4% home_+4.5 89.1% away_-4.5 10.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 67.0% under_6.5 33.0% over_7.5 53.4%
under_7.5 46.6% over_8.5 40.0% under_8.5 60.0%
over_9.5 28.2% under_9.5 71.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.1% under_3.5 36.9% over_4.5 44.7%
under_4.5 55.4% over_5.5 28.5% under_5.5 71.5%
team_away
over_3.5 46.8% under_3.5 53.2% over_4.5 28.5%
under_4.5 71.5% over_5.5 15.5% under_5.5 84.5%
most
home 54.7% draw 13.4% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.2% away_+2.5 71.8% home_-0.5 54.7%
away_+0.5 45.3% home_+0.5 68.1% away_-0.5 31.9%
home_+2.5 87.9% away_-2.5 12.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 89.0% under_2.5 11.0% over_3.5 76.1%
under_3.5 24.0% over_4.5 59.2% under_4.5 40.8%
over_5.5 41.7% under_5.5 58.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 71.0% under_1.5 29.0% over_2.5 45.3%
under_2.5 54.7%
team_away
over_1.5 75.2% under_1.5 24.8% over_2.5 50.7%
under_2.5 49.3%
most
home 37.4% draw 17.9% away 44.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 21.9% away_+1.5 78.1% home_-0.5 37.4%
away_+0.5 62.6% home_+0.5 55.3% away_-0.5 44.7%
home_+1.5 72.1% away_-1.5 27.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 86.9% under_20.5 13.1% over_22.5 77.8%
under_22.5 22.2% over_24.5 66.2% under_24.5 33.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 85.1% under_9.5 14.9% over_11.5 70.4%
under_11.5 29.7% over_13.5 52.5% under_13.5 47.5%
team_away
over_9.5 80.7% under_9.5 19.3% over_11.5 63.8%
under_11.5 36.2% over_13.5 45.1% under_13.5 54.9%
most
home 51.9% draw 6.6% away 41.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 32.6% away_+3.5 67.4% home_-0.5 51.9%
away_+0.5 48.1% home_+2.5 70.7% away_-2.5 29.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 24.6% no 75.4%
home
yes 17.9% no 82.1%
away
yes 8.2% no 91.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Valladolid predictions · Oviedo predictions · Segunda División

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Markets

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Segunda DivisiónValladolidOviedoTrack record