Shots
| Over 22.5 |
62.0% |
Over 24.5 |
49.1% |
Over 26.5 |
36.7% |
Over 28.5 |
25.8% |
| Most: Girona |
59.7% |
Most: Castellon |
34.1% |
| Girona Over 13.2 |
46.0% |
Castellon Over 13.2 |
28.2% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
76.7% |
Over 7.5 |
64.8% |
Over 8.5 |
51.9% |
Over 9.5 |
39.3% |
| Most: Girona |
48.8% |
Most: Castellon |
38.2% |
| Girona Over 4.2 |
48.8% |
Castellon Over 4.2 |
41.1% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
88.8% |
Over 3.5 |
75.6% |
Over 4.5 |
58.7% |
| Most: Girona |
39.2% |
Most: Castellon |
42.7% |
| Girona Over 1.8 |
71.8% |
Castellon Over 1.8 |
73.8% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Girona clean sheet |
19.7% |
| Castellon clean sheet |
34.8% |
| Girona win to nil |
12.2% |
| Castellon win to nil |
27.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
23.9% |
draw |
25.9% |
away |
50.2% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
49.8% |
12 |
74.1% |
X2 |
76.1% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
14.8% |
home_by_2 |
6.5% |
home_by_3plus |
2.6% |
| away_by_1 |
23.3% |
away_by_2 |
15.5% |
away_by_3plus |
11.4% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
7.5% |
0-1 |
10.6% |
0-2 |
9.1% |
| 0-3 |
4.9% |
0-4 |
2.0% |
0-5 |
0.7% |
| 1-0 |
6.7% |
1-1 |
12.4% |
1-2 |
9.6% |
| 1-3 |
5.2% |
1-4 |
2.1% |
1-5 |
0.7% |
| 2-0 |
3.8% |
2-1 |
6.2% |
2-2 |
5.0% |
| 2-3 |
2.7% |
2-4 |
1.1% |
2-5 |
0.4% |
| 3-0 |
1.3% |
3-1 |
2.2% |
3-2 |
1.8% |
| 3-3 |
1.0% |
3-4 |
0.4% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
0.4% |
4-1 |
0.6% |
4-2 |
0.5% |
| 4-3 |
0.3% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
0.1% |
5-1 |
0.1% |
5-2 |
0.1% |
| 5-3 |
0.1% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.7% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
12.4% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
92.5% |
under_0.5 |
7.5% |
over_1.5 |
75.2% |
| under_1.5 |
24.8% |
over_2.5 |
50.0% |
under_2.5 |
50.0% |
| over_3.5 |
28.0% |
under_3.5 |
72.0% |
over_4.5 |
13.3% |
| under_4.5 |
86.7% |
over_5.5 |
5.5% |
under_5.5 |
94.5% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
65.0% |
under_0.5 |
35.0% |
over_1.5 |
28.2% |
| under_1.5 |
71.8% |
over_2.5 |
9.0% |
under_2.5 |
91.1% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
80.3% |
under_0.5 |
19.7% |
over_1.5 |
48.3% |
| under_1.5 |
51.7% |
over_2.5 |
22.3% |
under_2.5 |
77.7% |
|
most
| home |
23.9% |
draw |
25.9% |
away |
50.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
2.6% |
away_+2.5 |
97.4% |
home_-1.5 |
9.1% |
| away_+1.5 |
90.9% |
home_-0.5 |
23.9% |
away_+0.5 |
76.1% |
| home_+0.5 |
49.8% |
away_-0.5 |
50.2% |
home_+1.5 |
73.1% |
| away_-1.5 |
26.9% |
home_+2.5 |
88.6% |
away_-2.5 |
11.4% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
7.5% |
exact_1 |
17.3% |
exact_2 |
25.3% |
| exact_3 |
22.0% |
exact_4 |
14.7% |
exact_5 |
7.9% |
| exact_6 |
3.5% |
exact_7plus |
2.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
24.9% |
draw |
43.7% |
away |
31.4% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
67.2% |
under_0.5 |
32.8% |
over_1.5 |
30.6% |
| under_1.5 |
69.4% |
over_2.5 |
10.2% |
under_2.5 |
89.8% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
32.8% |
exact_1 |
36.6% |
exact_2 |
20.4% |
| exact_3 |
7.6% |
exact_4plus |
2.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
48.1% |
draw |
30.0% |
away |
21.9% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
85.8% |
under_0.5 |
14.2% |
over_1.5 |
58.0% |
| under_1.5 |
42.0% |
over_2.5 |
31.0% |
under_2.5 |
69.0% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
20.3% |
H/D |
3.3% |
H/A |
1.3% |
| D/H |
21.0% |
D/D |
13.1% |
D/A |
9.6% |
| A/H |
5.6% |
A/D |
7.1% |
A/A |
18.7% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
70.1% |
under_7.5 |
29.9% |
over_8.5 |
58.0% |
| under_8.5 |
42.0% |
over_9.5 |
45.6% |
under_9.5 |
54.4% |
| over_10.5 |
34.1% |
under_10.5 |
65.9% |
over_11.5 |
24.2% |
| under_11.5 |
75.8% |
over_12.5 |
16.3% |
under_12.5 |
83.7% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
69.6% |
under_3.5 |
30.4% |
over_4.5 |
53.4% |
| under_4.5 |
46.6% |
over_5.5 |
37.9% |
under_5.5 |
62.1% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
61.1% |
under_3.5 |
38.9% |
over_4.5 |
43.8% |
| under_4.5 |
56.2% |
over_5.5 |
28.9% |
under_5.5 |
71.1% |
|
most
| home |
50.7% |
draw |
11.2% |
away |
38.1% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
20.5% |
away_+3.5 |
79.5% |
home_-1.5 |
39.5% |
| away_+1.5 |
60.5% |
home_-0.5 |
50.7% |
away_+0.5 |
49.3% |
| home_+0.5 |
61.9% |
away_-0.5 |
38.1% |
home_+1.5 |
72.1% |
| away_-1.5 |
27.9% |
home_+3.5 |
87.4% |
away_-3.5 |
12.6% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
62.0% |
under_22.5 |
38.0% |
over_24.5 |
49.1% |
| under_24.5 |
50.9% |
over_26.5 |
36.7% |
under_26.5 |
63.3% |
| over_28.5 |
25.8% |
under_28.5 |
74.2% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
71.7% |
under_10.5 |
28.3% |
over_12.5 |
54.6% |
| under_12.5 |
45.4% |
over_14.5 |
37.8% |
under_14.5 |
62.2% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
54.8% |
under_10.5 |
45.2% |
over_12.5 |
36.2% |
| under_12.5 |
63.8% |
over_14.5 |
21.4% |
under_14.5 |
78.6% |
|
most
| home |
59.7% |
draw |
6.2% |
away |
34.1% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
34.1% |
away_+4.5 |
66.0% |
home_-2.5 |
46.7% |
| away_+2.5 |
53.3% |
home_-0.5 |
59.7% |
away_+0.5 |
40.3% |
| home_+0.5 |
65.9% |
away_-0.5 |
34.1% |
home_+2.5 |
77.0% |
| away_-2.5 |
23.0% |
home_+4.5 |
85.7% |
away_-4.5 |
14.3% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
76.7% |
under_6.5 |
23.3% |
over_7.5 |
64.8% |
| under_7.5 |
35.2% |
over_8.5 |
51.9% |
under_8.5 |
48.1% |
| over_9.5 |
39.4% |
under_9.5 |
60.7% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
66.8% |
under_3.5 |
33.2% |
over_4.5 |
48.8% |
| under_4.5 |
51.2% |
over_5.5 |
32.3% |
under_5.5 |
67.7% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
59.8% |
under_3.5 |
40.2% |
over_4.5 |
41.1% |
| under_4.5 |
58.9% |
over_5.5 |
25.4% |
under_5.5 |
74.6% |
|
most
| home |
48.8% |
draw |
13.0% |
away |
38.2% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
24.7% |
away_+2.5 |
75.4% |
home_-0.5 |
48.8% |
| away_+0.5 |
51.2% |
home_+0.5 |
61.8% |
away_-0.5 |
38.2% |
| home_+2.5 |
83.1% |
away_-2.5 |
16.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
88.8% |
under_2.5 |
11.2% |
over_3.5 |
75.6% |
| under_3.5 |
24.4% |
over_4.5 |
58.7% |
under_4.5 |
41.3% |
| over_5.5 |
41.2% |
under_5.5 |
58.9% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
71.8% |
under_1.5 |
28.2% |
over_2.5 |
46.3% |
| under_2.5 |
53.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
73.8% |
under_1.5 |
26.2% |
over_2.5 |
48.9% |
| under_2.5 |
51.1% |
most
| home |
39.2% |
draw |
18.0% |
away |
42.7% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
23.4% |
away_+1.5 |
76.6% |
home_-0.5 |
39.2% |
| away_+0.5 |
60.8% |
home_+0.5 |
57.3% |
away_-0.5 |
42.7% |
| home_+1.5 |
73.8% |
away_-1.5 |
26.2% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
84.4% |
under_20.5 |
15.6% |
over_22.5 |
74.2% |
| under_22.5 |
25.8% |
over_24.5 |
61.9% |
under_24.5 |
38.1% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
80.1% |
under_9.5 |
19.9% |
over_11.5 |
63.0% |
| under_11.5 |
37.0% |
over_13.5 |
44.2% |
under_13.5 |
55.9% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
81.8% |
under_9.5 |
18.2% |
over_11.5 |
65.4% |
| under_11.5 |
34.6% |
over_13.5 |
46.8% |
under_13.5 |
53.2% |
|
most
| home |
44.8% |
draw |
6.7% |
away |
48.5% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
26.3% |
away_+3.5 |
73.7% |
home_-0.5 |
44.8% |
| away_+0.5 |
55.2% |
home_+2.5 |
64.6% |
away_-2.5 |
35.4% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Segunda División
Girona