Shots
| Over 22.5 |
77.2% |
Over 24.5 |
66.1% |
Over 26.5 |
53.8% |
Over 28.5 |
41.4% |
| Most: Osnabruck |
55.2% |
Most: Hertha |
38.6% |
| Osnabruck Over 13.2 |
55.0% |
Hertha Over 13.2 |
43.1% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
83.7% |
Over 7.5 |
74.2% |
Over 8.5 |
63.0% |
Over 9.5 |
51.1% |
| Most: Osnabruck |
49.1% |
Most: Hertha |
38.9% |
| Osnabruck Over 4.2 |
56.6% |
Hertha Over 4.2 |
49.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
83.3% |
Over 3.5 |
66.8% |
Over 4.5 |
47.9% |
| Most: Osnabruck |
31.3% |
Most: Hertha |
49.9% |
| Osnabruck Over 1.8 |
60.0% |
Hertha Over 1.8 |
72.0% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Osnabruck clean sheet |
16.9% |
| Hertha clean sheet |
27.8% |
| Osnabruck win to nil |
11.6% |
| Hertha win to nil |
22.5% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
27.0% |
draw |
24.4% |
away |
48.7% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
51.3% |
12 |
75.6% |
X2 |
73.0% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
15.5% |
home_by_2 |
7.7% |
home_by_3plus |
3.8% |
| away_by_1 |
21.8% |
away_by_2 |
15.0% |
away_by_3plus |
12.0% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
5.3% |
0-1 |
7.9% |
0-2 |
7.5% |
| 0-3 |
4.4% |
0-4 |
2.0% |
0-5 |
0.7% |
| 1-0 |
5.5% |
1-1 |
11.3% |
1-2 |
9.5% |
| 1-3 |
5.6% |
1-4 |
2.5% |
1-5 |
0.9% |
| 2-0 |
3.9% |
2-1 |
6.8% |
2-2 |
6.1% |
| 2-3 |
3.6% |
2-4 |
1.6% |
2-5 |
0.6% |
| 3-0 |
1.6% |
3-1 |
2.9% |
3-2 |
2.6% |
| 3-3 |
1.5% |
3-4 |
0.7% |
3-5 |
0.2% |
| 4-0 |
0.5% |
4-1 |
0.9% |
4-2 |
0.8% |
| 4-3 |
0.5% |
4-4 |
0.2% |
4-5 |
0.1% |
| 5-0 |
0.1% |
5-1 |
0.2% |
5-2 |
0.2% |
| 5-3 |
0.1% |
5-4 |
0.1% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
1.2% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
11.3% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
94.7% |
under_0.5 |
5.3% |
over_1.5 |
81.3% |
| under_1.5 |
18.7% |
over_2.5 |
58.7% |
under_2.5 |
41.3% |
| over_3.5 |
36.3% |
under_3.5 |
63.7% |
over_4.5 |
19.3% |
| under_4.5 |
80.8% |
over_5.5 |
8.9% |
under_5.5 |
91.1% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
72.0% |
under_0.5 |
28.0% |
over_1.5 |
36.3% |
| under_1.5 |
63.7% |
over_2.5 |
13.7% |
under_2.5 |
86.3% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
83.0% |
under_0.5 |
17.0% |
over_1.5 |
52.9% |
| under_1.5 |
47.1% |
over_2.5 |
26.2% |
under_2.5 |
73.8% |
|
most
| home |
27.0% |
draw |
24.4% |
away |
48.7% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
3.8% |
away_+2.5 |
96.2% |
home_-1.5 |
11.5% |
| away_+1.5 |
88.5% |
home_-0.5 |
27.0% |
away_+0.5 |
73.0% |
| home_+0.5 |
51.3% |
away_-0.5 |
48.7% |
home_+1.5 |
73.1% |
| away_-1.5 |
26.9% |
home_+2.5 |
88.0% |
away_-2.5 |
12.0% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
5.3% |
exact_1 |
13.4% |
exact_2 |
22.6% |
| exact_3 |
22.4% |
exact_4 |
17.1% |
exact_5 |
10.4% |
| exact_6 |
5.3% |
exact_7plus |
3.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
23.8% |
draw |
34.8% |
away |
41.5% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
79.7% |
under_0.5 |
20.3% |
over_1.5 |
47.3% |
| under_1.5 |
52.7% |
over_2.5 |
21.5% |
under_2.5 |
78.5% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
20.3% |
exact_1 |
32.4% |
exact_2 |
25.8% |
| exact_3 |
13.7% |
exact_4plus |
7.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
40.3% |
draw |
33.4% |
away |
26.2% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
82.1% |
under_0.5 |
17.9% |
over_1.5 |
51.2% |
| under_1.5 |
48.8% |
over_2.5 |
24.8% |
under_2.5 |
75.3% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
18.8% |
H/D |
3.6% |
H/A |
1.4% |
| D/H |
14.0% |
D/D |
11.6% |
D/A |
9.1% |
| A/H |
4.5% |
A/D |
7.8% |
A/A |
29.2% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
79.4% |
under_7.5 |
20.6% |
over_8.5 |
69.1% |
| under_8.5 |
30.9% |
over_9.5 |
57.6% |
under_9.5 |
42.4% |
| over_10.5 |
45.8% |
under_10.5 |
54.2% |
over_11.5 |
34.8% |
| under_11.5 |
65.2% |
over_12.5 |
25.3% |
under_12.5 |
74.7% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
75.5% |
under_3.5 |
24.5% |
over_4.5 |
60.5% |
| under_4.5 |
39.5% |
over_5.5 |
45.1% |
under_5.5 |
54.9% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
69.3% |
under_3.5 |
30.8% |
over_4.5 |
52.8% |
| under_4.5 |
47.2% |
over_5.5 |
37.2% |
under_5.5 |
62.8% |
|
most
| home |
49.9% |
draw |
10.6% |
away |
39.4% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
21.1% |
away_+3.5 |
78.9% |
home_-1.5 |
39.3% |
| away_+1.5 |
60.7% |
home_-0.5 |
49.9% |
away_+0.5 |
50.1% |
| home_+0.5 |
60.6% |
away_-0.5 |
39.4% |
home_+1.5 |
70.5% |
| away_-1.5 |
29.5% |
home_+3.5 |
85.8% |
away_-3.5 |
14.2% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
77.2% |
under_22.5 |
22.8% |
over_24.5 |
66.1% |
| under_24.5 |
33.9% |
over_26.5 |
53.8% |
under_26.5 |
46.2% |
| over_28.5 |
41.4% |
under_28.5 |
58.6% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
79.1% |
under_10.5 |
20.9% |
over_12.5 |
63.6% |
| under_12.5 |
36.4% |
over_14.5 |
46.5% |
under_14.5 |
53.5% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
70.0% |
under_10.5 |
30.0% |
over_12.5 |
52.0% |
| under_12.5 |
48.0% |
over_14.5 |
34.8% |
under_14.5 |
65.2% |
|
most
| home |
55.2% |
draw |
6.2% |
away |
38.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
30.7% |
away_+4.5 |
69.3% |
home_-2.5 |
42.6% |
| away_+2.5 |
57.4% |
home_-0.5 |
55.2% |
away_+0.5 |
44.8% |
| home_+0.5 |
61.4% |
away_-0.5 |
38.6% |
home_+2.5 |
72.8% |
| away_-2.5 |
27.2% |
home_+4.5 |
82.2% |
away_-4.5 |
17.8% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
83.7% |
under_6.5 |
16.3% |
over_7.5 |
74.2% |
| under_7.5 |
25.9% |
over_8.5 |
63.0% |
under_8.5 |
37.0% |
| over_9.5 |
51.1% |
under_9.5 |
48.9% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
72.9% |
under_3.5 |
27.1% |
over_4.5 |
56.6% |
| under_4.5 |
43.4% |
over_5.5 |
40.5% |
under_5.5 |
59.5% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
66.8% |
under_3.5 |
33.2% |
over_4.5 |
49.4% |
| under_4.5 |
50.6% |
over_5.5 |
33.3% |
under_5.5 |
66.7% |
|
most
| home |
49.1% |
draw |
12.0% |
away |
38.9% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
26.6% |
away_+2.5 |
73.4% |
home_-0.5 |
49.1% |
| away_+0.5 |
50.9% |
home_+0.5 |
61.1% |
away_-0.5 |
38.9% |
| home_+2.5 |
81.2% |
away_-2.5 |
18.8% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
83.3% |
under_2.5 |
16.7% |
over_3.5 |
66.8% |
| under_3.5 |
33.2% |
over_4.5 |
47.9% |
under_4.5 |
52.1% |
| over_5.5 |
30.7% |
under_5.5 |
69.3% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
60.0% |
under_1.5 |
40.0% |
over_2.5 |
32.9% |
| under_2.5 |
67.1% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
72.0% |
under_1.5 |
28.0% |
over_2.5 |
46.6% |
| under_2.5 |
53.4% |
most
| home |
31.3% |
draw |
18.8% |
away |
49.9% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
16.5% |
away_+1.5 |
83.5% |
home_-0.5 |
31.3% |
| away_+0.5 |
68.7% |
home_+0.5 |
50.1% |
away_-0.5 |
49.9% |
| home_+1.5 |
68.7% |
away_-1.5 |
31.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
71.6% |
under_20.5 |
28.4% |
over_22.5 |
57.6% |
| under_22.5 |
42.4% |
over_24.5 |
43.2% |
under_24.5 |
56.8% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
66.4% |
under_9.5 |
33.6% |
over_11.5 |
45.3% |
| under_11.5 |
54.8% |
over_13.5 |
26.6% |
under_13.5 |
73.5% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
76.5% |
under_9.5 |
23.5% |
over_11.5 |
57.5% |
| under_11.5 |
42.5% |
over_13.5 |
37.9% |
under_13.5 |
62.1% |
|
most
| home |
37.8% |
draw |
7.2% |
away |
55.0% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
19.4% |
away_+3.5 |
80.6% |
home_-0.5 |
37.8% |
| away_+0.5 |
62.2% |
home_+2.5 |
59.6% |
away_-2.5 |
40.4% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
2. Bundesliga
Hertha