Kifisia vs Levadeiakos prediction & probabilities (2026-09-13)

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Kifisia vs Levadeiakos: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Super League Greece
Kifisia

DWDLL

Sun, 13 Sep 202619:00UK
Levadeiakos

WLLLL

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

66%

Kifisia or draw

60%

Draw or Levadeiakos

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.027 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
KifisiaWin probability
39.9%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals77.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Kifisia or draw66.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.51
Draw or Levadeiakos60.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.66

Model read

▾

Kifisia versus Levadeiakos in the Super League Greece on 13 September 2026 is finely balanced. Kifisia edge it at 40%, but the gap to the field is slim. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Bookmakers see it the same way, 40% on Kifisia, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. 2) No strong lean on goals (52% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Recent form reads W1 D2 L3 for Kifisia against W2 D0 L4 for Levadeiakos. Head to head, the last 2 meetings gave 1 wins for Kifisia, 0 draws and 1 for Levadeiakos, averaging 3.0 goals a game. Fatigue may matter, with Kifisia 5 days shorter on recovery than Levadeiakos. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 8.5 corners45.2%@ 2.21
Over 9.5 corners34.9%@ 2.87
Levadeiakos win33.7%@ 2.97
Medium risk

Both teams to score56.7%@ 1.76
Over 2.5 goals52.5%@ 1.90
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.5%@ 7.98
2-1 correct score8.7%@ 11.49
1-0 correct score8.5%@ 11.81

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Kifisia

39.9%-0.2%

Draw

26.5%-2.4%

Levadeiakos

33.7%+2.7%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.1%

Strong chance

Over 2.552.5%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes56.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.545.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.534.9%

Toss-up

Over 10.526.0%

Low chance

Over 11.518.8%

Low chance

Most cornersKifisia53.6%Levadeiakos34.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.550.7%

Good chance

Over 24.539.2%

Toss-up

Over 26.528.9%

Low chance

Over 28.520.2%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Kifisia12.5 taken13.7 faced
Levadeiakos11.7 taken12.8 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.1%2.552.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.577.1%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.027 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

KifisiaDWDLL
LevadeiakosWLLLL

Last 2 meetings: Kifisia 1 · 0 draws · Levadeiakos 1 · 3.0 goals/game.

2026-02-28Kifisia 1-0 Levadeiakos
2025-08-25Levadeiakos 3-2 Kifisia

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

KifisiaLevadeiakos
League position#12 of 14#14 of 14
Record W-D-L0-1-20-0-3
Current streakL2L3
Record, home vs away0-1-00-0-1
Red cards this season21

League averages this season: 2.76 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 43% · BTTS in 48%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Kifisia win2.352.51
Draw3.203.77
Levadeiakos win3.002.97
Over 2.5 goals2.101.90
Under 2.5 goals1.702.11

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Kifisia win2.51
Draw3.78
Levadeiakos win2.97
Both teams to score1.76

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.30
Over 2.5 goals1.90
Over 3.5 goals3.30
Kifisia most2.51
Levadeiakos most2.97

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.69
Over 8.5 corners2.17
Over 9.5 corners2.93
Over 10.5 corners4.19
Kifisia most1.86
Levadeiakos most2.85

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.11
Over 3.5 cards1.29
Over 4.5 cards1.63
Over 5.5 cards2.28
Kifisia most2.23
Levadeiakos most2.67

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.51
Over 7.5 SoT1.84
Over 8.5 SoT2.33
Over 9.5 SoT3.08
Kifisia most1.75
Levadeiakos most3.21

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.97
Over 24.5 shots2.55
Over 26.5 shots3.46
Over 28.5 shots4.96
Kifisia most1.54
Levadeiakos most3.38

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.05
Over 22.5 fouls1.11
Over 24.5 fouls1.21
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 50.7% Over 24.5 39.2% Over 26.5 28.9% Over 28.5 20.2%
Most: Kifisia 64.9% Most: Levadeiakos 29.6%
Kifisia Over 13.2 43.6% Levadeiakos Over 13.2 20.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 66.3% Over 7.5 54.5% Over 8.5 42.9% Over 9.5 32.4%
Most: Kifisia 57.1% Most: Levadeiakos 31.2%
Kifisia Over 4.2 47.6% Levadeiakos Over 4.2 29.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 89.9% Over 3.5 77.6% Over 4.5 61.2%
Most: Kifisia 44.8% Most: Levadeiakos 37.5%
Kifisia Over 1.8 76.3% Levadeiakos Over 1.8 72.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Kifisia clean sheet 26.7%
Levadeiakos clean sheet 23.2%
Kifisia win to nil 19.8%
Levadeiakos win to nil 16.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 39.9% draw 26.5% away 33.7%
double_chance
1X 66.3% 12 73.5% X2 60.1%
dnb
home 54.2% away 45.8%
btts
yes 56.7% no 43.3%
clean_sheet
home 26.8% away 23.3%
win_to_nil
home 20.0% away 16.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.4% home_by_2 12.0% home_by_3plus 7.4%
away_by_1 18.5% away_by_2 9.9% away_by_3plus 5.4%
correct_score
0-0 6.8% 0-1 7.6% 0-2 5.4%
0-3 2.4% 0-4 0.8% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 8.5% 1-1 12.5% 1-2 7.9%
1-3 3.5% 1-4 1.2% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.6% 2-1 8.7% 2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.5% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 3.2% 3-1 4.2% 3-2 2.8%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.2% 4-1 1.5% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.2% under_0.5 6.8% over_1.5 77.1%
under_1.5 22.9% over_2.5 52.5% under_2.5 47.5%
over_3.5 30.3% under_3.5 69.7% over_4.5 14.9%
under_4.5 85.1% over_5.5 6.3% under_5.5 93.7%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 76.7% under_0.5 23.3% over_1.5 42.8%
under_1.5 57.2% over_2.5 18.1% under_2.5 81.9%
team_away
over_0.5 73.2% under_0.5 26.8% over_1.5 38.1%
under_1.5 62.0% over_2.5 14.8% under_2.5 85.2%
most
home 39.9% draw 26.5% away 33.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 7.4% away_+2.5 92.6% home_-1.5 19.4%
away_+1.5 80.6% home_-0.5 39.9% away_+0.5 60.1%
home_+0.5 66.3% away_-0.5 33.7% home_+1.5 84.8%
away_-1.5 15.2% home_+2.5 94.7% away_-2.5 5.4%
total_exact
exact_0 6.8% exact_1 16.1% exact_2 24.6%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.4% exact_5 8.6%
exact_6 4.0% exact_7plus 2.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 29.7% draw 42.5% away 27.8%
total
over_0.5 69.1% under_0.5 30.9% over_1.5 32.8%
under_1.5 67.2% over_2.5 11.5% under_2.5 88.5%
btts
yes 19.7% no 80.3%
total_exact
exact_0 30.9% exact_1 36.3% exact_2 21.3%
exact_3 8.3% exact_4plus 3.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.3% draw 34.7% away 33.0%
total
over_0.5 80.7% under_0.5 19.3% over_1.5 48.9%
under_1.5 51.1% over_2.5 22.8% under_2.5 77.2%
btts
yes 31.4% no 68.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 21.7% H/D 5.4% H/A 2.6%
D/H 13.7% D/D 14.8% D/A 14.0%
A/H 2.4% A/D 5.0% A/A 20.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 59.1% under_7.5 40.9% over_8.5 46.2%
under_8.5 53.8% over_9.5 34.1% under_9.5 65.9%
over_10.5 23.8% under_10.5 76.1% over_11.5 15.8%
under_11.5 84.2% over_12.5 10.0% under_12.5 90.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 64.1% under_3.5 35.9% over_4.5 47.8%
under_4.5 52.2% over_5.5 33.0% under_5.5 67.0%
team_away
over_3.5 50.2% under_3.5 49.8% over_4.5 33.4%
under_4.5 66.6% over_5.5 20.5% under_5.5 79.5%
most
home 53.8% draw 11.2% away 35.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.4% away_+3.5 77.6% home_-1.5 42.3%
away_+1.5 57.7% home_-0.5 53.8% away_+0.5 46.3%
home_+0.5 64.9% away_-0.5 35.1% home_+1.5 74.9%
away_-1.5 25.1% home_+3.5 89.3% away_-3.5 10.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 50.7% under_22.5 49.3% over_24.5 39.2%
under_24.5 60.8% over_26.5 28.9% under_26.5 71.1%
over_28.5 20.2% under_28.5 79.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 66.4% under_10.5 33.6% over_12.5 51.1%
under_12.5 48.9% over_14.5 36.6% under_14.5 63.4%
team_away
over_10.5 41.1% under_10.5 58.9% over_12.5 26.0%
under_12.5 74.1% over_14.5 15.1% under_14.5 84.9%
most
home 64.9% draw 5.4% away 29.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 41.3% away_+4.5 58.7% home_-2.5 53.2%
away_+2.5 46.8% home_-0.5 64.9% away_+0.5 35.1%
home_+0.5 70.4% away_-0.5 29.6% home_+2.5 79.9%
away_-2.5 20.1% home_+4.5 87.3% away_-4.5 12.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 66.3% under_6.5 33.7% over_7.5 54.5%
under_7.5 45.5% over_8.5 42.9% under_8.5 57.1%
over_9.5 32.4% under_9.5 67.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.3% under_3.5 36.7% over_4.5 47.6%
under_4.5 52.4% over_5.5 33.6% under_5.5 66.4%
team_away
over_3.5 44.9% under_3.5 55.1% over_4.5 29.0%
under_4.5 71.0% over_5.5 17.4% under_5.5 82.6%
most
home 57.1% draw 11.7% away 31.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.5% away_+2.5 66.5% home_-0.5 57.1%
away_+0.5 42.9% home_+0.5 68.8% away_-0.5 31.2%
home_+2.5 86.5% away_-2.5 13.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 89.9% under_2.5 10.1% over_3.5 77.6%
under_3.5 22.4% over_4.5 61.2% under_4.5 38.8%
over_5.5 43.8% under_5.5 56.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 76.3% under_1.5 23.7% over_2.5 52.2%
under_2.5 47.8%
team_away
over_1.5 72.2% under_1.5 27.8% over_2.5 46.8%
under_2.5 53.2%
most
home 44.8% draw 17.7% away 37.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 28.2% away_+1.5 71.8% home_-0.5 44.8%
away_+0.5 55.2% home_+0.5 62.5% away_-0.5 37.5%
home_+1.5 77.8% away_-1.5 22.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 95.0% under_20.5 5.1% over_22.5 90.1%
under_22.5 9.9% over_24.5 82.8% under_24.5 17.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 93.4% under_9.5 6.6% over_11.5 84.3%
under_11.5 15.7% over_13.5 70.7% under_13.5 29.3%
team_away
over_9.5 87.0% under_9.5 13.0% over_11.5 73.2%
under_11.5 26.8% over_13.5 55.9% under_13.5 44.2%
most
home 58.0% draw 6.1% away 35.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 39.0% away_+3.5 61.0% home_-0.5 58.0%
away_+0.5 42.0% home_+2.5 75.1% away_-2.5 24.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 33.0% no 67.0%
home
yes 22.8% no 77.2%
away
yes 13.2% no 86.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Kifisia predictions · Levadeiakos predictions · Super League Greece

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Super League GreeceKifisiaLevadeiakosTrack record