Blackburn vs Millwall prediction & probabilities (2026-09-12)

By /

Blackburn vs Millwall: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Championship
Blackburn

WLDLL

Sat, 12 Sep 202615:00UK
Millwall

WWLLW

Model’s top convictions

70%

Over 8.5 corners

69%

Draw or Millwall

66%

Over 1.5 goals

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.025 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
MillwallWin probability
39.0%
Top 3 convictions

Over 8.5 corners69.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.43
Draw or Millwall68.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.45
Over 1.5 goals66.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.51

Model read

▾

Blackburn versus Millwall in the Championship on 12 September 2026 is finely balanced. Millwall edge it at 39%, but the gap to the field is slim. The numbers that frame it: • Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 36%. • This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 39% with both teams to score at 46%. • Recent form reads W1 D2 L3 for Blackburn against W4 D0 L2 for Millwall. • The recent series reads 3 wins for Blackburn, 1 draws and 1 for Millwall over 5 games, 2.6 goals on average. Fatigue may matter, with Blackburn 4 days shorter on recovery than Millwall. The engine passes on this one (value_gap +0.025 <= 0.03).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 11.5 corners39.4%@ 2.54
Over 2.5 goals39.0%@ 2.56
Millwall win39.0%@ 2.56
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals61.0%@ 1.64
Blackburn or draw60.9%@ 1.64
Over 9.5 corners59.6%@ 1.68
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.9%@ 7.18
0-1 correct score12.0%@ 8.30
0-0 correct score11.2%@ 8.91

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Blackburn

31.0%-3.6%

Draw

29.9%+1.0%

Millwall

39.0%+2.5%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.025 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.566.4%

Strong chance

Over 2.539.0%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes46.0%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.569.7%

Strong chance

Over 9.559.6%

Good chance

Over 10.549.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.539.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersBlackburn53.7%Millwall36.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.563.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.551.2%

Good chance

Over 26.539.0%

Toss-up

Over 28.528.0%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Blackburn11.2 taken15.3 faced
Millwall16.0 taken10.5 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.566.4%2.539.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.566.4%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.025 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

BlackburnWLDLL
MillwallWWLLW

Last 5 meetings: Blackburn 3 · 1 draws · Millwall 1 · 2.6 goals/game.

2026-03-14Millwall 1-2 Blackburn
2025-12-20Blackburn 2-0 Millwall
2025-04-18Blackburn 4-1 Millwall
2024-12-21Millwall 1-0 Blackburn
2024-03-05Blackburn 1-1 Millwall

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

BlackburnMillwall
League position#18 of 24#9 of 24
Record W-D-L1-2-33-0-2
Current streakL2W1
Points per game0.831.80
Record, home vs away1-0-21-0-1
PPG, home vs away1.00·
Goals scored per game1.172.00
Goals conceded per game1.501.60
Scored, home vs away1.33·
Conceded, home vs away1.67·
1st half goals per game0.330.80
2nd half goals per game0.831.20
Corners won per game5.85.8
Cards per game3.01.4
Fouls per game11.212.0
Red cards this season11
Shots per game11.214.8
Shots faced per game15.311.8
Shots on target per game4.04.0
Over 2.5 rate

83.3%80.0%

BTTS rate

83.3%20.0%

Clean sheets

16.7%60.0%

Rates this season:BlackburnMillwall

League averages this season: 2.83 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 64% · BTTS in 68%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Blackburn win2.703.23
Draw3.203.34
Millwall win2.572.56
Over 2.5 goals1.902.56
Under 2.5 goals1.951.64

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Blackburn win3.22
Draw3.34
Millwall win2.56
Both teams to score2.17

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.13
Over 1.5 goals1.51
Over 2.5 goals2.56
Over 3.5 goals5.26
Blackburn most3.22
Millwall most2.56

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.22
Over 8.5 corners1.37
Over 9.5 corners1.62
Over 10.5 corners1.99
Blackburn most1.86
Millwall most2.77

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.45
Over 3.5 cards2.10
Over 4.5 cards3.50
Over 5.5 cards6.67
Blackburn most2.72
Millwall most2.43

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.62
Over 7.5 SoT2.08
Over 8.5 SoT2.81
Over 9.5 SoT4.03
Blackburn most2.21
Millwall most2.43

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.57
Over 24.5 shots1.95
Over 26.5 shots2.56
Over 28.5 shots3.57
Blackburn most1.72
Millwall most2.79

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.84
Over 22.5 fouls2.59
Over 24.5 fouls4.00
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 63.7% Over 24.5 51.2% Over 26.5 39.0% Over 28.5 28.0%
Most: Blackburn 58.1% Most: Millwall 35.8%
Blackburn Over 13.2 46.5% Millwall Over 13.2 30.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 61.6% Over 7.5 48.2% Over 8.5 35.5% Over 9.5 24.8%
Most: Blackburn 45.2% Most: Millwall 41.1%
Blackburn Over 4.2 34.8% Millwall Over 4.2 32.0%

Cards

Over 2.5 69.0% Over 3.5 47.6% Over 4.5 28.5%
Most: Blackburn 36.8% Most: Millwall 41.2%
Blackburn Over 1.8 51.4% Millwall Over 1.8 54.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Blackburn clean sheet 30.0%
Millwall clean sheet 35.2%
Blackburn win to nil 18.8%
Millwall win to nil 23.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 31.0% draw 30.0% away 39.0%
double_chance
1X 61.0% 12 70.1% X2 69.0%
dnb
home 44.3% away 55.7%
btts
yes 46.0% no 54.0%
clean_sheet
home 30.0% away 35.2%
win_to_nil
home 18.8% away 24.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.9% home_by_2 8.6% home_by_3plus 3.6%
away_by_1 21.9% away_by_2 11.4% away_by_3plus 5.7%
correct_score
0-0 11.2% 0-1 12.0% 0-2 7.7%
0-3 3.1% 0-4 0.9% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 10.4% 1-1 13.9% 1-2 8.0%
1-3 3.2% 1-4 1.0% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 5.8% 2-1 6.9% 2-2 4.2%
2-3 1.7% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 2.0% 3-1 2.4% 3-2 1.5%
3-3 0.6% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 0.5% 4-1 0.6% 4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.2%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 88.8% under_0.5 11.2% over_1.5 66.4%
under_1.5 33.6% over_2.5 39.0% under_2.5 61.0%
over_3.5 19.0% under_3.5 81.0% over_4.5 7.8%
under_4.5 92.2% over_5.5 2.7% under_5.5 97.3%
odd_even
odd 48.1% even 51.9%
team_home
over_0.5 64.8% under_0.5 35.2% over_1.5 28.0%
under_1.5 72.0% over_2.5 8.9% under_2.5 91.1%
team_away
over_0.5 70.0% under_0.5 30.0% over_1.5 33.9%
under_1.5 66.1% over_2.5 12.2% under_2.5 87.9%
most
home 31.0% draw 30.0% away 39.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 3.6% away_+2.5 96.4% home_-1.5 12.1%
away_+1.5 87.9% home_-0.5 31.0% away_+0.5 69.0%
home_+0.5 61.0% away_-0.5 39.0% home_+1.5 82.9%
away_-1.5 17.1% home_+2.5 94.3% away_-2.5 5.7%
total_exact
exact_0 11.2% exact_1 22.4% exact_2 27.4%
exact_3 20.0% exact_4 11.2% exact_5 5.1%
exact_6 1.9% exact_7plus 0.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 21.4% draw 49.4% away 29.2%
total
over_0.5 59.1% under_0.5 40.9% over_1.5 22.5%
under_1.5 77.5% over_2.5 6.2% under_2.5 93.8%
btts
yes 12.8% no 87.2%
total_exact
exact_0 40.9% exact_1 36.6% exact_2 16.3%
exact_3 4.9% exact_4plus 1.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.5% draw 38.8% away 33.7%
total
over_0.5 74.5% under_0.5 25.5% over_1.5 39.6%
under_1.5 60.4% over_2.5 15.8% under_2.5 84.2%
btts
yes 24.3% no 75.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 15.2% H/D 4.4% H/A 1.9%
D/H 13.6% D/D 19.2% D/A 16.6%
A/H 1.8% A/D 4.9% A/A 22.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 82.2% under_7.5 17.8% over_8.5 72.8%
under_8.5 27.2% over_9.5 61.8% under_9.5 38.2%
over_10.5 50.3% under_10.5 49.7% over_11.5 39.2%
under_11.5 60.8% over_12.5 29.2% under_12.5 70.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.4% under_3.5 20.6% over_4.5 65.6%
under_4.5 34.4% over_5.5 50.8% under_5.5 49.2%
team_away
over_3.5 69.2% under_3.5 30.8% over_4.5 52.8%
under_4.5 47.2% over_5.5 37.3% under_5.5 62.7%
most
home 53.8% draw 10.2% away 36.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.7% away_+3.5 75.3% home_-1.5 43.4%
away_+1.5 56.6% home_-0.5 53.8% away_+0.5 46.2%
home_+0.5 63.9% away_-0.5 36.1% home_+1.5 73.2%
away_-1.5 26.8% home_+3.5 87.3% away_-3.5 12.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 63.7% under_22.5 36.3% over_24.5 51.2%
under_24.5 48.8% over_26.5 39.0% under_26.5 61.0%
over_28.5 28.0% under_28.5 72.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 71.6% under_10.5 28.4% over_12.5 55.0%
under_12.5 45.0% over_14.5 38.5% under_14.5 61.5%
team_away
over_10.5 57.1% under_10.5 42.9% over_12.5 38.9%
under_12.5 61.1% over_14.5 23.9% under_14.5 76.1%
most
home 58.1% draw 6.1% away 35.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.3% away_+4.5 66.7% home_-2.5 45.5%
away_+2.5 54.6% home_-0.5 58.1% away_+0.5 41.9%
home_+0.5 64.2% away_-0.5 35.8% home_+2.5 75.3%
away_-2.5 24.7% home_+4.5 84.1% away_-4.5 15.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 61.6% under_6.5 38.4% over_7.5 48.2%
under_7.5 51.8% over_8.5 35.6% under_8.5 64.5%
over_9.5 24.8% under_9.5 75.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 52.6% under_3.5 47.4% over_4.5 34.8%
under_4.5 65.1% over_5.5 21.0% under_5.5 79.0%
team_away
over_3.5 49.7% under_3.5 50.3% over_4.5 32.1%
under_4.5 68.0% over_5.5 18.8% under_5.5 81.2%
most
home 45.2% draw 13.7% away 41.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 21.1% away_+2.5 78.9% home_-0.5 45.2%
away_+0.5 54.8% home_+0.5 58.9% away_-0.5 41.1%
home_+2.5 81.8% away_-2.5 18.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 69.0% under_2.5 31.0% over_3.5 47.6%
under_3.5 52.4% over_4.5 28.5% under_4.5 71.5%
over_5.5 15.0% under_5.5 85.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.4% under_1.5 48.6% over_2.5 24.9%
under_2.5 75.1%
team_away
over_1.5 54.7% under_1.5 45.3% over_2.5 27.8%
under_2.5 72.2%
most
home 36.8% draw 22.1% away 41.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.7% away_+1.5 81.3% home_-0.5 36.8%
away_+0.5 63.2% home_+0.5 58.8% away_-0.5 41.2%
home_+1.5 78.0% away_-1.5 22.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 54.5% under_20.5 45.5% over_22.5 38.7%
under_22.5 61.3% over_24.5 25.0% under_24.5 75.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 47.7% under_9.5 52.3% over_11.5 26.1%
under_11.5 73.9% over_13.5 11.8% under_13.5 88.2%
team_away
over_9.5 71.4% under_9.5 28.6% over_11.5 50.2%
under_11.5 49.8% over_13.5 30.2% under_13.5 69.8%
most
home 29.2% draw 7.4% away 63.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 12.3% away_+3.5 87.7% home_-0.5 29.2%
away_+0.5 70.8% home_+2.5 52.5% away_-2.5 47.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 17.5% no 82.5%
home
yes 8.8% no 91.2%
away
yes 9.6% no 90.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Blackburn predictions · Millwall predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

ChampionshipBlackburnMillwallTrack record