Shots
| Over 22.5 |
63.1% |
Over 24.5 |
50.9% |
Over 26.5 |
39.0% |
Over 28.5 |
28.3% |
| Most: Genclerbirligi |
61.9% |
Most: Kasimpasa |
32.3% |
| Genclerbirligi Over 13.2 |
49.2% |
Kasimpasa Over 13.2 |
28.3% |
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 |
69.6% |
Over 7.5 |
57.1% |
Over 8.5 |
44.4% |
Over 9.5 |
32.9% |
| Most: Genclerbirligi |
55.9% |
Most: Kasimpasa |
31.7% |
| Genclerbirligi Over 4.2 |
48.2% |
Kasimpasa Over 4.2 |
30.8% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 |
83.1% |
Over 3.5 |
66.5% |
Over 4.5 |
47.6% |
| Most: Genclerbirligi |
31.2% |
Most: Kasimpasa |
50.0% |
| Genclerbirligi Over 1.8 |
59.7% |
Kasimpasa Over 1.8 |
71.9% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Genclerbirligi clean sheet |
31.8% |
| Kasimpasa clean sheet |
27.2% |
| Genclerbirligi win to nil |
22.4% |
| Kasimpasa win to nil |
17.9% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home |
39.5% |
draw |
28.5% |
away |
32.0% |
|
double_chance
| 1X |
68.0% |
12 |
71.5% |
X2 |
60.5% |
|
dnb
btts
clean_sheet
win_to_nil
winning_margin
| home_by_1 |
21.4% |
home_by_2 |
11.7% |
home_by_3plus |
6.4% |
| away_by_1 |
18.8% |
away_by_2 |
9.1% |
away_by_3plus |
4.2% |
|
correct_score
| 0-0 |
9.3% |
0-1 |
9.3% |
0-2 |
5.7% |
| 0-3 |
2.2% |
0-4 |
0.6% |
0-5 |
0.1% |
| 1-0 |
10.6% |
1-1 |
13.6% |
1-2 |
7.4% |
| 1-3 |
2.8% |
1-4 |
0.8% |
1-5 |
0.2% |
| 2-0 |
7.3% |
2-1 |
8.4% |
2-2 |
4.8% |
| 2-3 |
1.8% |
2-4 |
0.5% |
2-5 |
0.1% |
| 3-0 |
3.2% |
3-1 |
3.6% |
3-2 |
2.1% |
| 3-3 |
0.8% |
3-4 |
0.2% |
3-5 |
0.1% |
| 4-0 |
1.0% |
4-1 |
1.2% |
4-2 |
0.7% |
| 4-3 |
0.3% |
4-4 |
0.1% |
4-5 |
0.0% |
| 5-0 |
0.3% |
5-1 |
0.3% |
5-2 |
0.2% |
| 5-3 |
0.1% |
5-4 |
0.0% |
5-5 |
0.0% |
| other |
0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h |
100.0% |
a |
100.0% |
p |
13.6% |
|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 |
90.7% |
under_0.5 |
9.3% |
over_1.5 |
70.8% |
| under_1.5 |
29.2% |
over_2.5 |
44.2% |
under_2.5 |
55.8% |
| over_3.5 |
23.1% |
under_3.5 |
76.9% |
over_4.5 |
10.2% |
| under_4.5 |
89.8% |
over_5.5 |
3.9% |
under_5.5 |
96.2% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_0.5 |
72.8% |
under_0.5 |
27.2% |
over_1.5 |
37.3% |
| under_1.5 |
62.7% |
over_2.5 |
14.3% |
under_2.5 |
85.7% |
|
team_away
| over_0.5 |
68.2% |
under_0.5 |
31.8% |
over_1.5 |
31.7% |
| under_1.5 |
68.3% |
over_2.5 |
10.9% |
under_2.5 |
89.1% |
|
most
| home |
39.5% |
draw |
28.5% |
away |
32.0% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
6.4% |
away_+2.5 |
93.6% |
home_-1.5 |
18.1% |
| away_+1.5 |
81.9% |
home_-0.5 |
39.5% |
away_+0.5 |
60.5% |
| home_+0.5 |
68.0% |
away_-0.5 |
32.0% |
home_+1.5 |
86.8% |
| away_-1.5 |
13.2% |
home_+2.5 |
95.8% |
away_-2.5 |
4.2% |
|
total_exact
| exact_0 |
9.3% |
exact_1 |
19.9% |
exact_2 |
26.6% |
| exact_3 |
21.1% |
exact_4 |
12.9% |
exact_5 |
6.3% |
| exact_6 |
2.6% |
exact_7plus |
1.3% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
30.0% |
draw |
41.2% |
away |
28.8% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
71.1% |
under_0.5 |
28.9% |
over_1.5 |
35.2% |
| under_1.5 |
64.8% |
over_2.5 |
13.0% |
under_2.5 |
87.0% |
|
btts
total_exact
| exact_0 |
28.9% |
exact_1 |
35.9% |
exact_2 |
22.3% |
| exact_3 |
9.2% |
exact_4plus |
3.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home |
33.8% |
draw |
41.9% |
away |
24.3% |
|
total
| over_0.5 |
69.7% |
under_0.5 |
30.3% |
over_1.5 |
33.5% |
| under_1.5 |
66.5% |
over_2.5 |
11.9% |
under_2.5 |
88.1% |
|
btts
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H |
24.3% |
H/D |
4.4% |
H/A |
1.3% |
| D/H |
13.9% |
D/D |
17.3% |
D/A |
10.0% |
| A/H |
2.2% |
A/D |
5.6% |
A/A |
21.0% |
|
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 |
68.8% |
under_7.5 |
31.2% |
over_8.5 |
56.7% |
| under_8.5 |
43.3% |
over_9.5 |
44.5% |
under_9.5 |
55.5% |
| over_10.5 |
33.2% |
under_10.5 |
66.8% |
over_11.5 |
23.5% |
| under_11.5 |
76.5% |
over_12.5 |
15.9% |
under_12.5 |
84.1% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
68.3% |
under_3.5 |
31.7% |
over_4.5 |
52.3% |
| under_4.5 |
47.8% |
over_5.5 |
37.1% |
under_5.5 |
62.9% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
60.1% |
under_3.5 |
39.9% |
over_4.5 |
43.1% |
| under_4.5 |
56.9% |
over_5.5 |
28.5% |
under_5.5 |
71.5% |
|
most
| home |
50.5% |
draw |
11.0% |
away |
38.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
20.8% |
away_+3.5 |
79.2% |
home_-1.5 |
39.5% |
| away_+1.5 |
60.5% |
home_-0.5 |
50.5% |
away_+0.5 |
49.5% |
| home_+0.5 |
61.4% |
away_-0.5 |
38.6% |
home_+1.5 |
71.6% |
| away_-1.5 |
28.4% |
home_+3.5 |
86.9% |
away_-3.5 |
13.1% |
|
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 |
63.1% |
under_22.5 |
36.9% |
over_24.5 |
50.9% |
| under_24.5 |
49.1% |
over_26.5 |
39.0% |
under_26.5 |
61.0% |
| over_28.5 |
28.3% |
under_28.5 |
71.7% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_10.5 |
73.1% |
under_10.5 |
26.9% |
over_12.5 |
57.3% |
| under_12.5 |
42.7% |
over_14.5 |
41.4% |
under_14.5 |
58.6% |
|
team_away
| over_10.5 |
53.4% |
under_10.5 |
46.6% |
over_12.5 |
35.8% |
| under_12.5 |
64.2% |
over_14.5 |
21.8% |
under_14.5 |
78.2% |
|
most
| home |
61.9% |
draw |
5.8% |
away |
32.3% |
|
handicap
| home_-4.5 |
37.6% |
away_+4.5 |
62.5% |
home_-2.5 |
49.7% |
| away_+2.5 |
50.3% |
home_-0.5 |
61.9% |
away_+0.5 |
38.1% |
| home_+0.5 |
67.7% |
away_-0.5 |
32.3% |
home_+2.5 |
78.0% |
| away_-2.5 |
22.1% |
home_+4.5 |
86.0% |
away_-4.5 |
14.0% |
|
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 |
69.6% |
under_6.5 |
30.4% |
over_7.5 |
57.1% |
| under_7.5 |
42.9% |
over_8.5 |
44.4% |
under_8.5 |
55.6% |
| over_9.5 |
32.9% |
under_9.5 |
67.1% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_3.5 |
65.3% |
under_3.5 |
34.7% |
over_4.5 |
48.2% |
| under_4.5 |
51.8% |
over_5.5 |
32.8% |
under_5.5 |
67.2% |
|
team_away
| over_3.5 |
48.4% |
under_3.5 |
51.7% |
over_4.5 |
30.8% |
| under_4.5 |
69.2% |
over_5.5 |
17.8% |
under_5.5 |
82.2% |
|
most
| home |
55.9% |
draw |
12.4% |
away |
31.7% |
|
handicap
| home_-2.5 |
30.8% |
away_+2.5 |
69.2% |
home_-0.5 |
55.9% |
| away_+0.5 |
44.1% |
home_+0.5 |
68.3% |
away_-0.5 |
31.7% |
| home_+2.5 |
87.1% |
away_-2.5 |
12.9% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 |
83.1% |
under_2.5 |
16.9% |
over_3.5 |
66.5% |
| under_3.5 |
33.6% |
over_4.5 |
47.6% |
under_4.5 |
52.4% |
| over_5.5 |
30.4% |
under_5.5 |
69.6% |
odd_even
team_home
| over_1.5 |
59.7% |
under_1.5 |
40.3% |
over_2.5 |
32.6% |
| under_2.5 |
67.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 |
71.9% |
under_1.5 |
28.1% |
over_2.5 |
46.4% |
| under_2.5 |
53.6% |
most
| home |
31.2% |
draw |
18.8% |
away |
50.0% |
|
handicap
| home_-1.5 |
16.4% |
away_+1.5 |
83.6% |
home_-0.5 |
31.2% |
| away_+0.5 |
68.8% |
home_+0.5 |
50.0% |
away_-0.5 |
50.0% |
| home_+1.5 |
68.6% |
away_-1.5 |
31.4% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 |
87.4% |
under_20.5 |
12.7% |
over_22.5 |
77.4% |
| under_22.5 |
22.6% |
over_24.5 |
64.5% |
under_24.5 |
35.5% |
|
odd_even
team_home
| over_9.5 |
79.3% |
under_9.5 |
20.7% |
over_11.5 |
60.0% |
| under_11.5 |
40.0% |
over_13.5 |
39.2% |
under_13.5 |
60.8% |
|
team_away
| over_9.5 |
87.8% |
under_9.5 |
12.2% |
over_11.5 |
73.0% |
| under_11.5 |
27.1% |
over_13.5 |
53.7% |
under_13.5 |
46.3% |
|
most
| home |
36.3% |
draw |
7.1% |
away |
56.6% |
|
handicap
| home_-3.5 |
18.4% |
away_+3.5 |
81.6% |
home_-0.5 |
36.3% |
| away_+0.5 |
63.7% |
home_+2.5 |
57.9% |
away_-2.5 |
42.1% |
|
Red card range, not a point
any
home
away
Süper Lig
Genclerbirligi
Kasimpasa