Sp Braga vs Estoril prediction & probabilities (2026-09-14)

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Sp Braga vs Estoril: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 12 Sep 2026

Primeira Liga
Sp Braga

DDWWL

Mon, 14 Sep 202620:45UK
Estoril

DLLLD

Model’s top convictions

82%

Sp Braga or draw

81%

Over 1.5 goals

58%

Over 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.13).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Sp BragaWin probability
59.3%
Top 3 convictions

Sp Braga or draw81.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Over 1.5 goals80.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.24
Over 2.5 goals58.0%Good chancePays @ 1.72

Model read

▾

"When model and market disagree on Sp Braga, that gap is the story." On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Sp Braga heavy favourites at 59% when Sp Braga meet Estoril in the Primeira Liga on 14 September 2026. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Sp Braga at 65%. Caution noted. Totals sit close to the fence: 58% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Sp Braga, 2 draws and 1 for Estoril, averaging 2.0 goals a game. Fatigue may matter, with Sp Braga 3 days shorter on recovery than Estoril. Recent form reads W2 D3 L1 for Sp Braga against W0 D2 L4 for Estoril. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners42.1%@ 2.38
Draw or Estoril40.7%@ 2.46
Over 10.5 corners32.9%@ 3.04
Medium risk

Both teams to score55.8%@ 1.79
Over 8.5 corners52.2%@ 1.92
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.5%@ 9.53
2-1 correct score9.9%@ 10.08
2-0 correct score9.7%@ 10.32

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Sp Braga

59.3%-5.8%

Draw

22.3%+0.5%

Estoril

18.4%+5.3%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.580.8%

High probability

Over 2.558.0%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes55.8%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.552.2%

Good chance

Over 9.542.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.532.9%

Toss-up

Over 11.525.0%

Low chance

Most cornersSp Braga55.6%Estoril33.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.551.4%

Good chance

Over 24.539.3%

Toss-up

Over 26.528.4%

Low chance

Over 28.519.4%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Sp Braga11.0 taken10.0 faced
Estoril13.2 taken14.2 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.580.8%2.558.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.580.8%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.13).

Form & head-to-head

Sp BragaDDWWL
EstorilDLLLD

Last 5 meetings: Sp Braga 2 · 2 draws · Estoril 1 · 2.0 goals/game.

2026-05-03Sp Braga 1-1 Estoril
2025-12-19Estoril 1-0 Sp Braga
2025-04-19Estoril 0-2 Sp Braga
2024-12-06Sp Braga 2-2 Estoril
2024-04-13Estoril 0-1 Sp Braga

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Sp BragaEstoril
League position#8 of 18#17 of 18
Record W-D-L2-1-10-2-3
Current streakL1D1
Points per game·0.40
Record, home vs away1-0-00-0-2
Goals scored per game·0.40
Goals conceded per game·1.40
1st half goals per game·0.00
2nd half goals per game·0.40
Corners won per game·5.0
Cards per game·2.4
Fouls per game·12.0
Red cards this season01
Shots per game·12.6
Shots faced per game·13.2
Shots on target per game·4.8
Over 2.5 rate

·20.0%

BTTS rate

·40.0%

Clean sheets

·20.0%

Rates this season:Sp BragaEstoril

League averages this season: 2.64 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 52% · BTTS in 41%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Sp Braga win1.461.69
Draw4.104.48
Estoril win6.505.43
Over 2.5 goals1.701.72
Under 2.5 goals2.102.38

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Sp Braga win1.69
Draw4.48
Estoril win5.43
Both teams to score1.79

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.24
Over 2.5 goals1.72
Over 3.5 goals2.81
Sp Braga most1.69
Estoril most5.43

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.52
Over 8.5 corners1.85
Over 9.5 corners2.35
Over 10.5 corners3.12
Sp Braga most1.79
Estoril most2.95

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.20
Over 3.5 cards1.49
Over 4.5 cards2.06
Over 5.5 cards3.20
Sp Braga most3.03
Estoril most2.08

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.52
Over 7.5 SoT1.91
Over 8.5 SoT2.53
Over 9.5 SoT3.54
Sp Braga most1.81
Estoril most3.16

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.95
Over 24.5 shots2.55
Over 26.5 shots3.52
Over 28.5 shots5.15
Sp Braga most1.60
Estoril most3.15

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.27
Over 22.5 fouls1.48
Over 24.5 fouls1.82
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 51.4% Over 24.5 39.3% Over 26.5 28.4% Over 28.5 19.4%
Most: Sp Braga 62.3% Most: Estoril 31.8%
Sp Braga Over 13.2 41.5% Estoril Over 13.2 21.2%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 65.7% Over 7.5 52.5% Over 8.5 39.6% Over 9.5 28.2%
Most: Sp Braga 55.4% Most: Estoril 31.7%
Sp Braga Over 4.2 44.6% Estoril Over 4.2 27.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 83.5% Over 3.5 67.1% Over 4.5 48.4%
Most: Sp Braga 33.0% Most: Estoril 48.2%
Sp Braga Over 1.8 61.5% Estoril Over 1.8 71.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Sp Braga clean sheet 35.3%
Estoril clean sheet 13.7%
Sp Braga win to nil 29.9%
Estoril win to nil 8.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 59.3% draw 22.3% away 18.4%
double_chance
1X 81.6% 12 77.7% X2 40.7%
dnb
home 76.3% away 23.7%
btts
yes 55.8% no 44.2%
clean_sheet
home 35.9% away 13.7%
win_to_nil
home 30.5% away 8.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.2% home_by_2 18.2% home_by_3plus 17.9%
away_by_1 11.7% away_by_2 4.9% away_by_3plus 1.8%
correct_score
0-0 5.4% 0-1 4.6% 0-2 2.6%
0-3 0.9% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 9.3% 1-1 10.5% 1-2 5.1%
1-3 1.8% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.7% 2-1 9.9% 2-2 5.1%
2-3 1.7% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 6.4% 3-1 6.6% 3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 3.2% 4-1 3.3% 4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.6% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.3% 5-1 1.3% 5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.6% under_0.5 5.4% over_1.5 80.8%
under_1.5 19.2% over_2.5 58.0% under_2.5 42.0%
over_3.5 35.7% under_3.5 64.4% over_4.5 18.8%
under_4.5 81.2% over_5.5 8.6% under_5.5 91.4%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.1%
team_home
over_0.5 86.3% under_0.5 13.7% over_1.5 59.1%
under_1.5 40.9% over_2.5 32.1% under_2.5 67.9%
team_away
over_0.5 64.1% under_0.5 35.9% over_1.5 27.3%
under_1.5 72.7% over_2.5 8.5% under_2.5 91.5%
most
home 59.3% draw 22.3% away 18.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 17.9% away_+2.5 82.1% home_-1.5 36.1%
away_+1.5 63.9% home_-0.5 59.3% away_+0.5 40.7%
home_+0.5 81.6% away_-0.5 18.4% home_+1.5 93.3%
away_-1.5 6.7% home_+2.5 98.2% away_-2.5 1.8%
total_exact
exact_0 5.4% exact_1 13.8% exact_2 22.8%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 16.9% exact_5 10.2%
exact_6 5.1% exact_7plus 3.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 55.5% draw 30.8% away 13.7%
total
over_0.5 81.1% under_0.5 18.9% over_1.5 49.6%
under_1.5 50.4% over_2.5 23.3% under_2.5 76.7%
btts
yes 25.5% no 74.5%
total_exact
exact_0 18.9% exact_1 31.5% exact_2 26.2%
exact_3 14.5% exact_4plus 8.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 42.8% draw 35.9% away 21.3%
total
over_0.5 77.4% under_0.5 22.6% over_1.5 43.8%
under_1.5 56.2% over_2.5 18.8% under_2.5 81.2%
btts
yes 25.9% no 74.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 48.2% H/D 5.6% H/A 1.7%
D/H 13.2% D/D 11.1% D/A 6.6%
A/H 1.9% A/D 3.3% A/A 8.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 65.8% under_7.5 34.2% over_8.5 54.0%
under_8.5 46.0% over_9.5 42.5% under_9.5 57.5%
over_10.5 32.0% under_10.5 68.0% over_11.5 23.1%
under_11.5 76.9% over_12.5 16.1% under_12.5 83.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.9% under_3.5 31.1% over_4.5 54.0%
under_4.5 46.0% over_5.5 39.9% under_5.5 60.1%
team_away
over_3.5 53.4% under_3.5 46.6% over_4.5 37.2%
under_4.5 62.8% over_5.5 24.2% under_5.5 75.8%
most
home 55.8% draw 10.3% away 33.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.9% away_+3.5 74.1% home_-1.5 45.2%
away_+1.5 54.8% home_-0.5 55.8% away_+0.5 44.2%
home_+0.5 66.1% away_-0.5 33.9% home_+1.5 75.3%
away_-1.5 24.7% home_+3.5 88.7% away_-3.5 11.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 51.4% under_22.5 48.6% over_24.5 39.3%
under_24.5 60.7% over_26.5 28.4% under_26.5 71.6%
over_28.5 19.4% under_28.5 80.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 65.9% under_10.5 34.1% over_12.5 49.4%
under_12.5 50.6% over_14.5 34.1% under_14.5 65.9%
team_away
over_10.5 44.3% under_10.5 55.7% over_12.5 27.8%
under_12.5 72.2% over_14.5 15.8% under_14.5 84.2%
most
home 62.3% draw 5.9% away 31.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.4% away_+4.5 62.6% home_-2.5 49.8%
away_+2.5 50.2% home_-0.5 62.3% away_+0.5 37.7%
home_+0.5 68.2% away_-0.5 31.8% home_+2.5 78.6%
away_-2.5 21.4% home_+4.5 86.7% away_-4.5 13.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 65.8% under_6.5 34.3% over_7.5 52.5%
under_7.5 47.5% over_8.5 39.6% under_8.5 60.4%
over_9.5 28.2% under_9.5 71.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 62.4% under_3.5 37.6% over_4.5 44.6%
under_4.5 55.4% over_5.5 29.1% under_5.5 70.9%
team_away
over_3.5 45.4% under_3.5 54.6% over_4.5 27.9%
under_4.5 72.1% over_5.5 15.4% under_5.5 84.6%
most
home 55.4% draw 13.0% away 31.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.4% away_+2.5 70.6% home_-0.5 55.4%
away_+0.5 44.7% home_+0.5 68.3% away_-0.5 31.7%
home_+2.5 87.6% away_-2.5 12.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 83.5% under_2.5 16.5% over_3.5 67.1%
under_3.5 32.9% over_4.5 48.4% under_4.5 51.6%
over_5.5 31.3% under_5.5 68.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 61.5% under_1.5 38.5% over_2.5 34.6%
under_2.5 65.4%
team_away
over_1.5 71.2% under_1.5 28.8% over_2.5 45.7%
under_2.5 54.3%
most
home 33.0% draw 18.8% away 48.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.8% away_+1.5 82.2% home_-0.5 33.0%
away_+0.5 67.0% home_+0.5 51.8% away_-0.5 48.2%
home_+1.5 70.1% away_-1.5 29.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 79.0% under_20.5 21.1% over_22.5 67.6%
under_22.5 32.4% over_24.5 54.8% under_24.5 45.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 78.1% under_9.5 21.9% over_11.5 61.2%
under_11.5 38.9% over_13.5 43.0% under_13.5 57.0%
team_away
over_9.5 74.7% under_9.5 25.3% over_11.5 56.6%
under_11.5 43.4% over_13.5 38.4% under_13.5 61.6%
most
home 50.0% draw 6.6% away 43.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 31.0% away_+3.5 69.0% home_-0.5 50.0%
away_+0.5 50.0% home_+2.5 69.1% away_-2.5 31.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 9.8% no 90.2%
home
yes 5.4% no 94.6%
away
yes 4.6% no 95.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Sp Braga predictions · Estoril predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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