Eibar vs Granada prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Eibar vs Granada: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Segunda División
Eibar

WLLWW

Full time3-0Sun, 6 Sep 202613:00UK
Granada

LLDWW

Model’s top convictions

75%

Eibar or draw

66%

Over 1.5 goals

61%

Under 2.5 goals

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Eibar 3-0 Granada
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Eibar at 46.0%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 60.9% and it missed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 66.4% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 80.9% and it landed (3 goals). We called No at 55.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 67.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 67.3% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 55.7% and it landed (6 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 70.6% and it landed (6 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 52.0% and it missed (29 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 58.0% and it landed (11 shots on target). We called No at 77.6% and it missed.

Match data Eibar Granada
Goals, 1st half 2 0
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 11 18
Shots on target 8 3
Corners 1 5
Yellow cards 3 3
Red cards 1 0
Fouls 13 10

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
EibarWin probability
46.0%
Top 3 convictions

Eibar or draw75.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.33
Over 1.5 goals66.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.51
Under 2.5 goals60.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.64

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Eibar at 46% for 6 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Bookmakers see it the same way, 48% on Eibar, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. 2) The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 39% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 45%. 3) Form guide over the last six: Eibar W3 D0 L3, Granada W2 D1 L3. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 2 wins for Eibar, 3 draws and 0 for Granada at 1.8 goals per match. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.013 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners43.9%@ 2.28
Over 2.5 goals39.1%@ 2.56
Over 10.5 corners33.7%@ 2.97
Medium risk

Not both teams to score55.2%@ 1.81
Over 8.5 corners55.0%@ 1.82
Draw or Granada54.1%@ 1.85
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.5%@ 7.41
1-0 correct score13.5%@ 7.43
0-0 correct score11.2%@ 8.94

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Eibar

46.0%-2.2%

Draw

29.2%+1.3%

Granada

24.9%+1.0%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.013 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.566.4%

Strong chance

Over 2.539.1%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes44.8%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.555.0%

Good chance

Over 9.543.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.533.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.9%

Low chance

Most cornersEibar56.2%Granada32.7%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.0%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.535.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.524.8%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.566.4%2.539.1%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.566.4%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

EibarWLLWW
GranadaLLDWW

Last 5 meetings: Eibar 2 · 3 draws · Granada 0 · 1.8 goals/game.

2026-01-19Granada 0-0 Eibar
2025-08-22Eibar 3-0 Granada
2025-05-12Granada 0-2 Eibar
2024-12-21Eibar 1-1 Granada
2023-04-30Granada 1-1 Eibar

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

EibarGranada
League position#8 of 22#1 of 22
Record W-D-L2-0-12-1-0
Current streakW2W2
Record, home vs away1-0-11-1-0
Red cards this season10

League averages this season: 2.36 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 42% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Eibar win1.962.17
Draw3.303.42
Granada win3.804.02
Over 2.5 goals2.252.56
Under 2.5 goals1.621.64

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Eibar win2.18
Draw3.43
Granada win4.02
Both teams to score2.23

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.13
Over 1.5 goals1.51
Over 2.5 goals2.56
Over 3.5 goals5.24
Eibar most2.18
Granada most4.02

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.45
Over 8.5 corners1.76
Over 9.5 corners2.26
Over 10.5 corners3.05
Eibar most1.78
Granada most3.05

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.17
Over 3.5 cards1.42
Over 4.5 cards1.91
Over 5.5 cards2.86
Eibar most2.72
Granada most2.24

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.41
Over 7.5 SoT1.73
Over 8.5 SoT2.24
Over 9.5 SoT3.09
Eibar most1.75
Granada most3.34

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.64
Over 24.5 shots2.08
Over 26.5 shots2.81
Over 28.5 shots4.04
Eibar most1.57
Granada most3.31

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.22
Over 22.5 fouls1.41
Over 24.5 fouls1.72
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 71.0% Over 7.5 58.0% Over 8.5 44.6% Over 9.5 32.4%
Most: Eibar 57.2% Most: Granada 29.9%
Eibar Over 4.2 49.5% Granada Over 4.2 29.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 85.8% Over 3.5 70.6% Over 4.5 52.4%
Most: Eibar 36.7% Most: Granada 44.6%
Eibar Over 1.8 66.7% Granada Over 1.8 71.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Eibar clean sheet 40.1%
Granada clean sheet 26.2%
Eibar win to nil 28.9%
Granada win to nil 15.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 46.0% draw 29.2% away 24.9%
double_chance
1X 75.1% 12 70.8% X2 54.0%
dnb
home 64.9% away 35.1%
btts
yes 44.8% no 55.3%
clean_sheet
home 40.2% away 26.2%
win_to_nil
home 29.0% away 15.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 24.0% home_by_2 13.9% home_by_3plus 8.1%
away_by_1 16.1% away_by_2 6.5% away_by_3plus 2.3%
correct_score
0-0 11.2% 0-1 9.0% 0-2 4.4%
0-3 1.3% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 13.5% 1-1 13.5% 1-2 5.9%
1-3 1.8% 1-4 0.4% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.5% 2-1 8.6% 2-2 3.9%
2-3 1.2% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.2% 3-1 3.8% 3-2 1.8%
3-3 0.5% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.4% 4-1 1.3% 4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 88.8% under_0.5 11.2% over_1.5 66.4%
under_1.5 33.6% over_2.5 39.1% under_2.5 60.9%
over_3.5 19.1% under_3.5 80.9% over_4.5 7.8%
under_4.5 92.2% over_5.5 2.7% under_5.5 97.3%
odd_even
odd 48.2% even 51.8%
team_home
over_0.5 73.8% under_0.5 26.2% over_1.5 38.7%
under_1.5 61.3% over_2.5 15.2% under_2.5 84.8%
team_away
over_0.5 59.8% under_0.5 40.2% over_1.5 23.2%
under_1.5 76.8% over_2.5 6.5% under_2.5 93.5%
most
home 46.0% draw 29.2% away 24.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.1% away_+2.5 92.0% home_-1.5 22.0%
away_+1.5 78.0% home_-0.5 46.0% away_+0.5 54.0%
home_+0.5 75.1% away_-0.5 24.9% home_+1.5 91.3%
away_-1.5 8.7% home_+2.5 97.7% away_-2.5 2.3%
total_exact
exact_0 11.2% exact_1 22.4% exact_2 27.3%
exact_3 20.0% exact_4 11.3% exact_5 5.1%
exact_6 1.9% exact_7plus 0.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 34.5% draw 43.0% away 22.5%
total
over_0.5 67.9% under_0.5 32.1% over_1.5 31.4%
under_1.5 68.6% over_2.5 10.7% under_2.5 89.3%
btts
yes 18.3% no 81.7%
total_exact
exact_0 32.1% exact_1 36.5% exact_2 20.7%
exact_3 7.8% exact_4plus 2.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.0% draw 42.9% away 19.1%
total
over_0.5 67.3% under_0.5 32.7% over_1.5 30.7%
under_1.5 69.3% over_2.5 10.3% under_2.5 89.7%
btts
yes 17.1% no 82.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 29.5% H/D 4.1% H/A 0.9%
D/H 16.4% D/D 18.5% D/A 8.2%
A/H 2.1% A/D 5.1% A/A 15.3%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.1% under_7.5 30.9% over_8.5 56.8%
under_8.5 43.2% over_9.5 44.3% under_9.5 55.7%
over_10.5 32.8% under_10.5 67.2% over_11.5 23.1%
under_11.5 76.9% over_12.5 15.4% under_12.5 84.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.3% under_3.5 27.7% over_4.5 56.6%
under_4.5 43.5% over_5.5 41.0% under_5.5 59.0%
team_away
over_3.5 56.1% under_3.5 43.9% over_4.5 38.6%
under_4.5 61.5% over_5.5 24.2% under_5.5 75.8%
most
home 56.3% draw 10.9% away 32.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.4% away_+3.5 75.6% home_-1.5 44.9%
away_+1.5 55.1% home_-0.5 56.3% away_+0.5 43.7%
home_+0.5 67.2% away_-0.5 32.8% home_+1.5 76.8%
away_-1.5 23.2% home_+3.5 90.4% away_-3.5 9.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.0% under_22.5 39.0% over_24.5 48.0%
under_24.5 52.0% over_26.5 35.6% under_26.5 64.4%
over_28.5 24.8% under_28.5 75.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.4% under_10.5 26.6% over_12.5 56.7%
under_12.5 43.3% over_14.5 39.8% under_14.5 60.2%
team_away
over_10.5 50.8% under_10.5 49.2% over_12.5 32.4%
under_12.5 67.7% over_14.5 18.3% under_14.5 81.7%
most
home 63.8% draw 6.0% away 30.2%
handicap
home_-4.5 38.0% away_+4.5 62.0% home_-2.5 50.9%
away_+2.5 49.1% home_-0.5 63.8% away_+0.5 36.2%
home_+0.5 69.8% away_-0.5 30.2% home_+2.5 80.2%
away_-2.5 19.8% home_+4.5 88.1% away_-4.5 11.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 71.0% under_6.5 29.0% over_7.5 58.0%
under_7.5 42.0% over_8.5 44.6% under_8.5 55.4%
over_9.5 32.4% under_9.5 67.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.4% under_3.5 32.6% over_4.5 49.5%
under_4.5 50.5% over_5.5 33.0% under_5.5 67.0%
team_away
over_3.5 48.3% under_3.5 51.7% over_4.5 29.9%
under_4.5 70.1% over_5.5 16.4% under_5.5 83.6%
most
home 57.2% draw 12.8% away 29.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 30.9% away_+2.5 69.1% home_-0.5 57.2%
away_+0.5 42.8% home_+0.5 70.1% away_-0.5 29.9%
home_+2.5 88.7% away_-2.5 11.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 85.8% under_2.5 14.2% over_3.5 70.6%
under_3.5 29.4% over_4.5 52.4% under_4.5 47.6%
over_5.5 34.9% under_5.5 65.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 66.7% under_1.5 33.3% over_2.5 40.1%
under_2.5 59.9%
team_away
over_1.5 71.5% under_1.5 28.5% over_2.5 45.9%
under_2.5 54.1%
most
home 36.7% draw 18.7% away 44.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.9% away_+1.5 79.1% home_-0.5 36.7%
away_+0.5 63.3% home_+0.5 55.4% away_-0.5 44.6%
home_+1.5 72.8% away_-1.5 27.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 82.0% under_20.5 18.0% over_22.5 71.1%
under_22.5 28.9% over_24.5 58.2% under_24.5 41.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 84.3% under_9.5 15.8% over_11.5 69.0%
under_11.5 31.0% over_13.5 50.9% under_13.5 49.1%
team_away
over_9.5 72.8% under_9.5 27.2% over_11.5 53.3%
under_11.5 46.7% over_13.5 34.4% under_13.5 65.6%
most
home 58.3% draw 6.5% away 35.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 38.2% away_+3.5 61.9% home_-0.5 58.3%
away_+0.5 41.7% home_+2.5 76.5% away_-2.5 23.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 22.4% no 77.6%
home
yes 7.8% no 92.2%
away
yes 15.8% no 84.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Eibar predictions · Granada predictions · Segunda División

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Segunda DivisiónEibarGranadaTrack record