Rochdale vs Gillingham prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

By /

Rochdale vs Gillingham: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

League Two
Rochdale

DLLLW

Full time1-4Sat, 5 Sep 202615:00UK
Gillingham

WLDDD

Model’s top convictions

71%

Over 1.5 goals

66%

Rochdale or draw

62%

Draw or Gillingham

Full time5 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Rochdale 1-4 Gillingham
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
5 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Rochdale at 37.7%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 56.0% and it missed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 70.6% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 77.1% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 50.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 66.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 74.5% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 50.7% and it missed (12 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 57.1% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 54.8% and it landed (23 shots). We called Under 7.5 at 51.9% and it missed (10 shots on target). We called No at 87.6% and it missed.

Match data Rochdale Gillingham
Goals, 1st half 0 1
Goals, 2nd half 1 3
Shots 7 16
Shots on target 4 6
Corners 6 6
Yellow cards 2 1
Red cards 1 0
Fouls 12 12

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
RochdaleWin probability
37.7%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals70.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.42
Rochdale or draw66.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.51
Draw or Gillingham62.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.61

Model read

▾

Expect a tight one: the model splits Rochdale and Gillingham almost evenly, Rochdale marginally on top at 38%. The numbers that frame it: • Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Rochdale higher (46%) than our model does. • This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 44% with both teams to score at 50%. • Rochdale are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. • Form guide over the last six: Rochdale W2 D1 L3, Gillingham W1 D3 L2. Head to head, the last 2 meetings gave 0 wins for Rochdale, 0 draws and 2 for Gillingham, averaging 1.5 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.27).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals44.0%@ 2.27
Over 10.5 corners38.2%@ 2.62
Gillingham win33.7%@ 2.97
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners59.2%@ 1.69
Under 2.5 goals56.0%@ 1.79
Both teams to score50.2%@ 1.99
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.6%@ 7.36
1-0 correct score10.4%@ 9.64
0-1 correct score9.6%@ 10.40

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Rochdale

37.7%-7.8%

Draw

28.6%+0.7%

Gillingham

33.7%+7.1%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.27)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.570.6%

Strong chance

Over 2.544.0%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes50.2%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.2%

Good chance

Over 9.548.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.538.2%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.1%

Low chance

Most cornersRochdale55.3%Gillingham33.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.558.1%

Good chance

Over 24.545.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.533.3%

Toss-up

Over 28.523.1%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.570.6%2.544.0%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.570.6%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

RochdaleDLLLW
GillinghamWLDDD

Last 2 meetings: Rochdale 0 · 0 draws · Gillingham 2 · 1.5 goals/game.

2023-02-18Rochdale 0-2 Gillingham
2022-08-06Gillingham 1-0 Rochdale

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

RochdaleGillingham
League position#19 of 24#21 of 24
Record W-D-L1-0-30-3-1
Current streakW1D3
Record, home vs away1-0-10-2-0
Red cards this season10

League averages this season: 2.65 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 52% · BTTS in 58%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Rochdale win2.052.65
Draw3.253.50
Gillingham win3.402.97
Over 2.5 goals2.082.27
Under 2.5 goals1.731.79

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Rochdale win2.65
Draw3.49
Gillingham win2.97
Both teams to score1.99

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.42
Over 2.5 goals2.27
Over 3.5 goals4.36
Rochdale most2.65
Gillingham most2.97

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.38
Over 8.5 corners1.63
Over 9.5 corners2.03
Over 10.5 corners2.64
Rochdale most1.80
Gillingham most2.95

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.31
Over 3.5 cards1.75
Over 4.5 cards2.66
Over 5.5 cards4.57
Rochdale most3.27
Gillingham most2.03

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.63
Over 7.5 SoT2.08
Over 8.5 SoT2.79
Over 9.5 SoT3.94
Rochdale most1.80
Gillingham most3.15

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.72
Over 24.5 shots2.21
Over 26.5 shots3.00
Over 28.5 shots4.34
Rochdale most1.70
Gillingham most2.86

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.41
Over 22.5 fouls1.78
Over 24.5 fouls2.44
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 61.2% Over 7.5 48.1% Over 8.5 35.9% Over 9.5 25.4%
Most: Rochdale 55.4% Most: Gillingham 31.7%
Rochdale Over 4.2 41.9% Gillingham Over 4.2 25.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 76.5% Over 3.5 57.1% Over 4.5 37.6%
Most: Rochdale 30.6% Most: Gillingham 49.3%
Rochdale Over 1.8 52.7% Gillingham Over 1.8 65.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Rochdale clean sheet 30.8%
Gillingham clean sheet 28.3%
Rochdale win to nil 21.4%
Gillingham win to nil 18.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 37.7% draw 28.6% away 33.7%
double_chance
1X 66.3% 12 71.4% X2 62.3%
dnb
home 52.8% away 47.2%
btts
yes 50.2% no 49.8%
clean_sheet
home 30.8% away 28.3%
win_to_nil
home 21.5% away 19.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 20.8% home_by_2 11.1% home_by_3plus 5.8%
away_by_1 19.4% away_by_2 9.7% away_by_3plus 4.6%
correct_score
0-0 9.4% 0-1 9.6% 0-2 6.1%
0-3 2.4% 0-4 0.7% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 10.4% 1-1 13.6% 1-2 7.6%
1-3 3.0% 1-4 0.9% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.0% 2-1 8.2% 2-2 4.8%
2-3 1.9% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 2.9% 3-1 3.4% 3-2 2.0%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.9% 4-1 1.1% 4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.6% under_0.5 9.4% over_1.5 70.6%
under_1.5 29.4% over_2.5 44.0% under_2.5 56.0%
over_3.5 22.9% under_3.5 77.1% over_4.5 10.1%
under_4.5 89.9% over_5.5 3.8% under_5.5 96.2%
odd_even
odd 48.3% even 51.7%
team_home
over_0.5 71.7% under_0.5 28.3% over_1.5 35.9%
under_1.5 64.1% over_2.5 13.4% under_2.5 86.6%
team_away
over_0.5 69.2% under_0.5 30.8% over_1.5 32.9%
under_1.5 67.1% over_2.5 11.6% under_2.5 88.4%
most
home 37.7% draw 28.6% away 33.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.8% away_+2.5 94.2% home_-1.5 16.9%
away_+1.5 83.1% home_-0.5 37.7% away_+0.5 62.3%
home_+0.5 66.3% away_-0.5 33.7% home_+1.5 85.7%
away_-1.5 14.3% home_+2.5 95.4% away_-2.5 4.6%
total_exact
exact_0 9.4% exact_1 20.0% exact_2 26.6%
exact_3 21.1% exact_4 12.9% exact_5 6.3%
exact_6 2.6% exact_7plus 1.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.3% draw 43.5% away 18.3%
total
over_0.5 66.4% under_0.5 33.6% over_1.5 29.7%
under_1.5 70.3% over_2.5 9.8% under_2.5 90.3%
btts
yes 16.3% no 83.7%
total_exact
exact_0 33.6% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 20.0%
exact_3 7.2% exact_4plus 2.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.2% draw 38.6% away 25.2%
total
over_0.5 74.5% under_0.5 25.6% over_1.5 39.6%
under_1.5 60.4% over_2.5 15.8% under_2.5 84.2%
btts
yes 24.0% no 76.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 30.9% H/D 5.5% H/A 1.8%
D/H 15.7% D/D 16.8% D/A 10.9%
A/H 1.8% A/D 4.0% A/A 12.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 72.5% under_7.5 27.5% over_8.5 61.2%
under_8.5 38.8% over_9.5 49.3% under_9.5 50.7%
over_10.5 37.9% under_10.5 62.1% over_11.5 27.9%
under_11.5 72.1% over_12.5 19.6% under_12.5 80.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.8% under_3.5 26.2% over_4.5 58.8%
under_4.5 41.2% over_5.5 43.8% under_5.5 56.3%
team_away
over_3.5 59.6% under_3.5 40.4% over_4.5 42.6%
under_4.5 57.4% over_5.5 28.0% under_5.5 72.0%
most
home 55.5% draw 10.6% away 34.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.8% away_+3.5 75.2% home_-1.5 44.5%
away_+1.5 55.5% home_-0.5 55.5% away_+0.5 44.5%
home_+0.5 66.1% away_-0.5 34.0% home_+1.5 75.5%
away_-1.5 24.5% home_+3.5 89.2% away_-3.5 10.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 58.1% under_22.5 41.9% over_24.5 45.3%
under_24.5 54.8% over_26.5 33.3% under_26.5 66.7%
over_28.5 23.1% under_28.5 76.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 68.5% under_10.5 31.5% over_12.5 51.3%
under_12.5 48.7% over_14.5 34.9% under_14.5 65.1%
team_away
over_10.5 52.4% under_10.5 47.6% over_12.5 34.3%
under_12.5 65.8% over_14.5 20.1% under_14.5 79.9%
most
home 58.8% draw 6.2% away 35.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 33.3% away_+4.5 66.7% home_-2.5 45.8%
away_+2.5 54.2% home_-0.5 58.8% away_+0.5 41.2%
home_+0.5 65.0% away_-0.5 35.0% home_+2.5 76.2%
away_-2.5 23.8% home_+4.5 85.0% away_-4.5 15.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 61.2% under_6.5 38.8% over_7.5 48.1%
under_7.5 51.9% over_8.5 35.9% under_8.5 64.1%
over_9.5 25.4% under_9.5 74.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 59.1% under_3.5 40.9% over_4.5 41.9%
under_4.5 58.1% over_5.5 27.4% under_5.5 72.6%
team_away
over_3.5 41.9% under_3.5 58.2% over_4.5 25.4%
under_4.5 74.6% over_5.5 14.0% under_5.5 86.0%
most
home 55.4% draw 12.9% away 31.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.7% away_+2.5 70.3% home_-0.5 55.4%
away_+0.5 44.6% home_+0.5 68.3% away_-0.5 31.7%
home_+2.5 87.5% away_-2.5 12.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 76.5% under_2.5 23.5% over_3.5 57.1%
under_3.5 42.9% over_4.5 37.6% under_4.5 62.4%
over_5.5 21.9% under_5.5 78.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 52.7% under_1.5 47.3% over_2.5 26.1%
under_2.5 74.0%
team_away
over_1.5 65.9% under_1.5 34.1% over_2.5 39.3%
under_2.5 60.8%
most
home 30.6% draw 20.1% away 49.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.2% away_+1.5 84.8% home_-0.5 30.6%
away_+0.5 69.4% home_+0.5 50.7% away_-0.5 49.3%
home_+1.5 70.3% away_-1.5 29.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 70.9% under_20.5 29.1% over_22.5 56.1%
under_22.5 43.9% over_24.5 40.9% under_24.5 59.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 60.9% under_9.5 39.2% over_11.5 38.2%
under_11.5 61.8% over_13.5 20.1% under_13.5 79.9%
team_away
over_9.5 80.4% under_9.5 19.6% over_11.5 61.8%
under_11.5 38.2% over_13.5 41.3% under_13.5 58.7%
most
home 30.2% draw 7.1% away 62.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 13.5% away_+3.5 86.5% home_-0.5 30.2%
away_+0.5 69.9% home_+2.5 52.5% away_-2.5 47.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.4% no 87.6%
home
yes 8.3% no 91.7%
away
yes 4.4% no 95.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Rochdale predictions · Gillingham predictions · League Two

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

League TwoRochdaleGillinghamTrack record