Anderlecht vs Genk prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Anderlecht vs Genk: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Pro League
Anderlecht

LWLLW

Full time0-0Sun, 6 Sep 202617:30UK
Genk

WLWDW

Model’s top convictions

81%

Over 1.5 goals

66%

Draw or Genk

61%

Both teams to score

Full time2 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Anderlecht 0-0 Genk
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
2 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Genk at 40.3%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 58.3% and it missed (0 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 81.0% and it missed (0 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 64.1% and it landed (0 goals). We called Yes at 61.3% and it missed. We called Yes at 76.1% and it missed. We called Yes at 80.0% and it missed. We called Over 9.5 at 51.3% and it missed (6 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 55.9% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 58.4% and it missed (20 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 68.0% and it missed (6 shots on target). We called No at 86.9% and it landed.

Match data Anderlecht Genk
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 12 8
Shots on target 4 2
Corners 4 2
Yellow cards 2 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 11 9

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
GenkWin probability
40.3%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals81.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Draw or Genk65.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.53
Both teams to score61.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.63

Model read

▾

Little between these two in the data. Genk at 40% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 6 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Genk than the market (34%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • Totals sit close to the fence: 58% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 61%. • Schedule edge: Genk have had 6 more days of rest than Anderlecht. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Anderlecht, 1 draws and 4 for Genk, averaging 2.4 goals a game. The run in: Anderlecht arrive W3 D0 L3, Genk W3 D2 L1. Verdict: no bet. Outside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Genk win40.3%@ 2.48
Over 10.5 corners39.7%@ 2.52
Over 11.5 corners30.4%@ 3.29
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners60.8%@ 1.64
Anderlecht or draw59.6%@ 1.68
Over 2.5 goals58.3%@ 1.72
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.6%@ 8.59
1-2 correct score8.8%@ 11.42
2-1 correct score8.0%@ 12.48

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Anderlecht

34.4%-4.7%

Draw

25.2%-1.5%

Genk

40.3%+6.1%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.40, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.0%

High probability

Over 2.558.3%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes61.3%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.8%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.0%

Good chance

Over 10.539.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersAnderlecht57.5%Genk31.9%

Shots markets

Over 22.569.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.558.4%

Good chance

Over 26.546.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.535.3%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.0%2.558.3%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.581.0%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

AnderlechtLWLLW
GenkWLWDW

Last 5 meetings: Anderlecht 0 · 1 draws · Genk 4 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-02-08Genk 2-0 Anderlecht
2025-09-14Anderlecht 1-1 Genk
2025-05-25Genk 2-1 Anderlecht
2025-04-06Anderlecht 1-2 Genk
2024-12-22Genk 2-0 Anderlecht

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AnderlechtGenk
League position#10 of 18#7 of 18
Record W-D-L2-0-22-1-1
Current streakW1W1
Record, home vs away2-0-00-1-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.19 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 69% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Anderlecht win2.382.91
Draw3.403.97
Genk win2.702.48
Over 2.5 goals1.701.72
Under 2.5 goals2.102.40

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Anderlecht win2.90
Draw3.96
Genk win2.48
Both teams to score1.63

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.23
Over 2.5 goals1.72
Over 3.5 goals2.79
Anderlecht most2.90
Genk most2.48

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.58
Over 9.5 corners1.95
Over 10.5 corners2.53
Anderlecht most1.73
Genk most3.13

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.33
Over 3.5 cards1.79
Over 4.5 cards2.73
Over 5.5 cards4.68
Anderlecht most3.02
Genk most2.15

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.27
Over 7.5 SoT1.47
Over 8.5 SoT1.78
Over 9.5 SoT2.24
Anderlecht most1.78
Genk most3.09

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.43
Over 24.5 shots1.71
Over 26.5 shots2.15
Over 28.5 shots2.83
Anderlecht most1.57
Genk most3.25

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.49
Over 22.5 fouls1.88
Over 24.5 fouls2.54
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 78.6% Over 7.5 68.0% Over 8.5 56.3% Over 9.5 44.6%
Most: Anderlecht 56.1% Most: Genk 32.4%
Anderlecht Over 4.2 56.4% Genk Over 4.2 39.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 75.3% Over 3.5 55.9% Over 4.5 36.7%
Most: Anderlecht 33.1% Most: Genk 46.6%
Anderlecht Over 1.8 53.7% Genk Over 1.8 63.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Anderlecht clean sheet 20.5%
Genk clean sheet 23.4%
Anderlecht win to nil 15.1%
Genk win to nil 18.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 34.4% draw 25.2% away 40.3%
double_chance
1X 59.7% 12 74.8% X2 65.6%
dnb
home 46.1% away 53.9%
btts
yes 61.3% no 38.8%
clean_sheet
home 20.6% away 23.6%
win_to_nil
home 15.2% away 18.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 18.2% home_by_2 10.2% home_by_3plus 6.1%
away_by_1 19.9% away_by_2 12.2% away_by_3plus 8.2%
correct_score
0-0 5.4% 0-1 7.1% 0-2 6.1%
0-3 3.2% 0-4 1.3% 0-5 0.4%
1-0 6.5% 1-1 11.6% 1-2 8.8%
1-3 4.6% 1-4 1.8% 1-5 0.6%
2-0 5.1% 2-1 8.0% 2-2 6.3%
2-3 3.3% 2-4 1.3% 2-5 0.4%
3-0 2.4% 3-1 3.9% 3-2 3.1%
3-3 1.6% 3-4 0.6% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.9% 4-1 1.4% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.6% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.9%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.6% under_0.5 5.4% over_1.5 81.0%
under_1.5 19.0% over_2.5 58.3% under_2.5 41.7%
over_3.5 35.9% under_3.5 64.1% over_4.5 18.9%
under_4.5 81.1% over_5.5 8.7% under_5.5 91.3%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 76.4% under_0.5 23.6% over_1.5 42.4%
under_1.5 57.6% over_2.5 17.8% under_2.5 82.2%
team_away
over_0.5 79.4% under_0.5 20.6% over_1.5 46.9%
under_1.5 53.1% over_2.5 21.2% under_2.5 78.8%
most
home 34.4% draw 25.2% away 40.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.1% away_+2.5 94.0% home_-1.5 16.3%
away_+1.5 83.7% home_-0.5 34.4% away_+0.5 65.6%
home_+0.5 59.7% away_-0.5 40.3% home_+1.5 79.6%
away_-1.5 20.4% home_+2.5 91.8% away_-2.5 8.2%
total_exact
exact_0 5.4% exact_1 13.6% exact_2 22.8%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.0% exact_5 10.3%
exact_6 5.2% exact_7plus 3.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 22.0% draw 37.0% away 41.1%
total
over_0.5 76.1% under_0.5 23.9% over_1.5 41.9%
under_1.5 58.1% over_2.5 17.4% under_2.5 82.6%
btts
yes 24.9% no 75.1%
total_exact
exact_0 23.9% exact_1 34.2% exact_2 24.5%
exact_3 11.7% exact_4plus 5.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.4% draw 35.0% away 27.6%
total
over_0.5 80.0% under_0.5 20.0% over_1.5 47.8%
under_1.5 52.2% over_2.5 21.9% under_2.5 78.1%
btts
yes 30.2% no 69.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 17.0% H/D 3.6% H/A 1.4%
D/H 13.8% D/D 13.0% D/A 10.2%
A/H 3.9% A/D 7.5% A/A 29.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.8% under_7.5 25.2% over_8.5 63.4%
under_8.5 36.6% over_9.5 51.3% under_9.5 48.7%
over_10.5 39.5% under_10.5 60.5% over_11.5 29.0%
under_11.5 71.0% over_12.5 20.3% under_12.5 79.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.4% under_3.5 23.6% over_4.5 61.8%
under_4.5 38.2% over_5.5 46.6% under_5.5 53.4%
team_away
over_3.5 59.6% under_3.5 40.4% over_4.5 42.2%
under_4.5 57.8% over_5.5 27.4% under_5.5 72.6%
most
home 57.7% draw 10.4% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.6% away_+3.5 73.4% home_-1.5 46.8%
away_+1.5 53.2% home_-0.5 57.7% away_+0.5 42.3%
home_+0.5 68.1% away_-0.5 31.9% home_+1.5 77.2%
away_-1.5 22.8% home_+3.5 90.2% away_-3.5 9.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 69.7% under_22.5 30.3% over_24.5 58.4%
under_24.5 41.6% over_26.5 46.6% under_26.5 53.4%
over_28.5 35.3% under_28.5 64.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 77.9% under_10.5 22.1% over_12.5 63.6%
under_12.5 36.4% over_14.5 48.1% under_14.5 51.9%
team_away
over_10.5 57.1% under_10.5 42.9% over_12.5 39.8%
under_12.5 60.2% over_14.5 25.2% under_14.5 74.8%
most
home 63.7% draw 5.5% away 30.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.2% away_+4.5 59.8% home_-2.5 52.1%
away_+2.5 47.9% home_-0.5 63.7% away_+0.5 36.3%
home_+0.5 69.2% away_-0.5 30.8% home_+2.5 78.8%
away_-2.5 21.2% home_+4.5 86.4% away_-4.5 13.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 78.6% under_6.5 21.4% over_7.5 68.0%
under_7.5 32.0% over_8.5 56.3% under_8.5 43.7%
over_9.5 44.6% under_9.5 55.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.1% under_3.5 27.9% over_4.5 56.4%
under_4.5 43.6% over_5.5 41.0% under_5.5 59.0%
team_away
over_3.5 56.7% under_3.5 43.3% over_4.5 39.1%
under_4.5 60.9% over_5.5 24.7% under_5.5 75.3%
most
home 56.1% draw 11.5% away 32.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 32.8% away_+2.5 67.3% home_-0.5 56.1%
away_+0.5 43.9% home_+0.5 67.6% away_-0.5 32.4%
home_+2.5 85.6% away_-2.5 14.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 75.3% under_2.5 24.7% over_3.5 55.9%
under_3.5 44.1% over_4.5 36.7% under_4.5 63.3%
over_5.5 21.4% under_5.5 78.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 53.7% under_1.5 46.3% over_2.5 27.3%
under_2.5 72.7%
team_away
over_1.5 63.2% under_1.5 36.8% over_2.5 36.7%
under_2.5 63.3%
most
home 33.1% draw 20.3% away 46.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.1% away_+1.5 82.9% home_-0.5 33.1%
away_+0.5 66.9% home_+0.5 53.4% away_-0.5 46.6%
home_+1.5 72.5% away_-1.5 27.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 67.3% under_20.5 32.7% over_22.5 53.3%
under_22.5 46.7% over_24.5 39.4% under_24.5 60.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 68.0% under_9.5 32.0% over_11.5 47.9%
under_11.5 52.1% over_13.5 29.5% under_13.5 70.5%
team_away
over_9.5 68.8% under_9.5 31.2% over_11.5 48.8%
under_11.5 51.2% over_13.5 30.4% under_13.5 69.6%
most
home 45.8% draw 7.2% away 47.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.9% away_+3.5 74.1% home_-0.5 45.8%
away_+0.5 54.2% home_+2.5 66.8% away_-2.5 33.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 13.1% no 86.9%
home
yes 8.7% no 91.3%
away
yes 4.8% no 95.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Anderlecht predictions · Genk predictions · Pro League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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