Charleroi vs St. Gilloise prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Charleroi vs St. Gilloise: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Pro League
Charleroi

WWWWW

Full time2-3Sat, 5 Sep 202615:00UK
St. Gilloise

WWDWW

Model’s top convictions

74%

Draw or St. Gilloise

66%

Over 1.5 goals

63%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Charleroi 2-3 St. Gilloise
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was St. Gilloise at 44.5%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 61.4% and it missed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 66.0% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 81.3% and it missed (5 goals). We called No at 55.3% and it missed. We called Yes at 63.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 69.5% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 53.8% and it landed (11 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 52.2% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 55.0% and it landed (37 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 61.8% and it landed (12 shots on target). We called No at 82.2% and it landed.

Match data Charleroi St. Gilloise
Goals, 1st half 2 2
Goals, 2nd half 0 1
Shots 20 17
Shots on target 5 7
Corners 5 6
Yellow cards 1 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 12 17

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
St. GilloiseWin probability
44.5%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or St. Gilloise74.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.35
Over 1.5 goals66.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.52
Over 8.5 corners62.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.59

Model read

▾

A measured edge to St. Gilloise: 44% is the model's line for this Pro League meeting on 5 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 44%. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 39% with both teams to score at 45%. 3) Form guide over the last six: Charleroi W5 D1 L0, St. Gilloise W4 D2 L0. Fatigue may matter, with St. Gilloise 4 days shorter on recovery than Charleroi. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Charleroi, 1 draws and 4 for St. Gilloise, averaging 2.8 goals a game. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.024 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

St. Gilloise win44.5%@ 2.25
Over 10.5 corners41.8%@ 2.39
Over 2.5 goals38.6%@ 2.59
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals61.4%@ 1.63
Charleroi or draw55.5%@ 1.80
Not both teams to score55.3%@ 1.81
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.6%@ 7.34
0-1 correct score13.3%@ 7.51
0-0 correct score11.4%@ 8.80

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Charleroi

26.0%-3.0%

Draw

29.5%+2.4%

St. Gilloise

44.5%+0.5%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.024 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.566.0%

Strong chance

Over 2.538.6%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes44.7%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.9%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.2%

Good chance

Over 10.541.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.532.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersCharleroi52.1%St. Gilloise37.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.566.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.555.0%

Good chance

Over 26.543.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.532.2%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.566.0%2.538.6%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.566.0%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

CharleroiWWWWW
St. GilloiseWWDWW

Last 5 meetings: Charleroi 0 · 1 draws · St. Gilloise 4 · 2.8 goals/game.

2025-12-14Charleroi 1-1 St. Gilloise
2025-10-18St. Gilloise 3-1 Charleroi
2025-01-11Charleroi 1-2 St. Gilloise
2024-08-16St. Gilloise 1-0 Charleroi
2023-12-10Charleroi 1-3 St. Gilloise

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

CharleroiSt. Gilloise
League position#1 of 18#3 of 18
Record W-D-L4-0-03-1-0
Current streakW4W2
Record, home vs away2-0-02-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.19 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 69% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Charleroi win3.103.85
Draw3.303.39
St. Gilloise win2.102.25
Over 2.5 goals1.952.59
Under 2.5 goals1.851.63

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Charleroi win3.85
Draw3.39
St. Gilloise win2.25
Both teams to score2.24

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.13
Over 1.5 goals1.52
Over 2.5 goals2.59
Over 3.5 goals5.34
Charleroi most3.85
St. Gilloise most2.25

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.30
Over 8.5 corners1.52
Over 9.5 corners1.86
Over 10.5 corners2.38
Charleroi most1.92
St. Gilloise most2.69

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.38
Over 3.5 cards1.92
Over 4.5 cards3.02
Over 5.5 cards5.38
Charleroi most3.04
St. Gilloise most2.16

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.36
Over 7.5 SoT1.62
Over 8.5 SoT2.02
Over 9.5 SoT2.65
Charleroi most2.20
St. Gilloise most2.38

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.50
Over 24.5 shots1.82
Over 26.5 shots2.31
Over 28.5 shots3.10
Charleroi most1.77
St. Gilloise most2.65

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.74
Over 22.5 fouls2.34
Over 24.5 fouls3.39
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.5% Over 7.5 61.8% Over 8.5 49.5% Over 9.5 37.8%
Most: Charleroi 45.5% Most: St. Gilloise 42.0%
Charleroi Over 4.2 44.5% St. Gilloise Over 4.2 41.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.5% Over 3.5 52.2% Over 4.5 33.1%
Most: Charleroi 32.9% Most: St. Gilloise 46.2%
Charleroi Over 1.8 51.1% St. Gilloise Over 1.8 60.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Charleroi clean sheet 27.2%
St. Gilloise clean sheet 39.4%
Charleroi win to nil 15.8%
St. Gilloise win to nil 28.0%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 26.0% draw 29.5% away 44.5%
double_chance
1X 55.5% 12 70.5% X2 74.0%
dnb
home 36.9% away 63.1%
btts
yes 44.7% no 55.3%
clean_sheet
home 27.2% away 39.5%
win_to_nil
home 15.8% away 28.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 16.7% home_by_2 6.8% home_by_3plus 2.5%
away_by_1 23.7% away_by_2 13.4% away_by_3plus 7.5%
correct_score
0-0 11.4% 0-1 13.3% 0-2 9.1%
0-3 4.0% 0-4 1.3% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 9.3% 1-1 13.6% 1-2 8.5%
1-3 3.7% 1-4 1.2% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 4.6% 2-1 6.0% 2-2 3.9%
2-3 1.7% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 1.4% 3-1 1.9% 3-2 1.2%
3-3 0.5% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.3% 4-1 0.4% 4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.1% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.6%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 88.6% under_0.5 11.4% over_1.5 66.0%
under_1.5 34.0% over_2.5 38.6% under_2.5 61.4%
over_3.5 18.7% under_3.5 81.3% over_4.5 7.6%
under_4.5 92.4% over_5.5 2.7% under_5.5 97.3%
odd_even
odd 48.1% even 51.9%
team_home
over_0.5 60.5% under_0.5 39.5% over_1.5 23.9%
under_1.5 76.1% over_2.5 6.8% under_2.5 93.2%
team_away
over_0.5 72.8% under_0.5 27.2% over_1.5 37.4%
under_1.5 62.6% over_2.5 14.4% under_2.5 85.6%
most
home 26.0% draw 29.5% away 44.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 2.5% away_+2.5 97.5% home_-1.5 9.3%
away_+1.5 90.7% home_-0.5 26.0% away_+0.5 74.0%
home_+0.5 55.5% away_-0.5 44.5% home_+1.5 79.2%
away_-1.5 20.8% home_+2.5 92.5% away_-2.5 7.5%
total_exact
exact_0 11.4% exact_1 22.6% exact_2 27.4%
exact_3 19.9% exact_4 11.1% exact_5 5.0%
exact_6 1.8% exact_7plus 0.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 18.6% draw 45.6% away 35.8%
total
over_0.5 63.7% under_0.5 36.3% over_1.5 26.9%
under_1.5 73.1% over_2.5 8.3% under_2.5 91.7%
btts
yes 14.8% no 85.2%
total_exact
exact_0 36.3% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.6%
exact_3 6.3% exact_4plus 2.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 23.7% draw 42.0% away 34.3%
total
over_0.5 69.5% under_0.5 30.5% over_1.5 33.3%
under_1.5 66.7% over_2.5 11.8% under_2.5 88.2%
btts
yes 19.7% no 80.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 13.1% H/D 4.0% H/A 1.6%
D/H 10.8% D/D 19.1% D/A 15.6%
A/H 1.4% A/D 5.1% A/A 29.2%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.7% under_7.5 23.3% over_8.5 65.7%
under_8.5 34.3% over_9.5 53.8% under_9.5 46.2%
over_10.5 42.0% under_10.5 58.0% over_11.5 31.2%
under_11.5 68.8% over_12.5 22.1% under_12.5 77.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.7% under_3.5 25.4% over_4.5 59.6%
under_4.5 40.4% over_5.5 44.2% under_5.5 55.8%
team_away
over_3.5 65.2% under_3.5 34.8% over_4.5 48.3%
under_4.5 51.7% over_5.5 33.0% under_5.5 67.0%
most
home 52.2% draw 10.6% away 37.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.6% away_+3.5 77.4% home_-1.5 41.4%
away_+1.5 58.6% home_-0.5 52.2% away_+0.5 47.8%
home_+0.5 62.8% away_-0.5 37.2% home_+1.5 72.5%
away_-1.5 27.5% home_+3.5 87.2% away_-3.5 12.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 66.7% under_22.5 33.3% over_24.5 55.0%
under_24.5 45.0% over_26.5 43.2% under_26.5 56.8%
over_28.5 32.2% under_28.5 67.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.1% under_10.5 27.9% over_12.5 56.3%
under_12.5 43.7% over_14.5 40.6% under_14.5 59.4%
team_away
over_10.5 60.2% under_10.5 39.8% over_12.5 42.9%
under_12.5 57.1% over_14.5 28.0% under_14.5 72.1%
most
home 56.4% draw 5.9% away 37.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.9% away_+4.5 67.1% home_-2.5 44.4%
away_+2.5 55.6% home_-0.5 56.4% away_+0.5 43.6%
home_+0.5 62.2% away_-0.5 37.8% home_+2.5 73.0%
away_-2.5 27.0% home_+4.5 82.0% away_-4.5 18.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.5% under_6.5 26.5% over_7.5 61.8%
under_7.5 38.2% over_8.5 49.5% under_8.5 50.5%
over_9.5 37.8% under_9.5 62.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 61.8% under_3.5 38.2% over_4.5 44.5%
under_4.5 55.5% over_5.5 29.5% under_5.5 70.6%
team_away
over_3.5 59.4% under_3.5 40.6% over_4.5 41.9%
under_4.5 58.1% over_5.5 27.2% under_5.5 72.8%
most
home 45.5% draw 12.5% away 42.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 23.1% away_+2.5 77.0% home_-0.5 45.5%
away_+0.5 54.5% home_+0.5 58.0% away_-0.5 42.0%
home_+2.5 79.6% away_-2.5 20.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.5% under_2.5 27.5% over_3.5 52.2%
under_3.5 47.8% over_4.5 33.1% under_4.5 66.9%
over_5.5 18.6% under_5.5 81.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.1% under_1.5 48.9% over_2.5 25.0%
under_2.5 75.0%
team_away
over_1.5 60.7% under_1.5 39.3% over_2.5 34.1%
under_2.5 65.9%
most
home 32.9% draw 20.8% away 46.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.6% away_+1.5 83.4% home_-0.5 32.9%
away_+0.5 67.1% home_+0.5 53.8% away_-0.5 46.2%
home_+1.5 73.2% away_-1.5 26.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 57.5% under_20.5 42.6% over_22.5 42.8%
under_22.5 57.2% over_24.5 29.5% under_24.5 70.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 53.7% under_9.5 46.3% over_11.5 32.9%
under_11.5 67.1% over_13.5 17.3% under_13.5 82.7%
team_away
over_9.5 68.9% under_9.5 31.1% over_11.5 48.9%
under_11.5 51.1% over_13.5 30.4% under_13.5 69.6%
most
home 35.1% draw 7.2% away 57.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 17.2% away_+3.5 82.8% home_-0.5 35.1%
away_+0.5 64.9% home_+2.5 57.2% away_-2.5 42.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 17.8% no 82.2%
home
yes 12.3% no 87.7%
away
yes 6.3% no 93.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Charleroi predictions · St. Gilloise predictions · Pro League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Pro LeagueCharleroiSt. GilloiseTrack record