Asteras Tripolis vs Iraklis prediction & probabilities (2026-09-07)

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Asteras Tripolis vs Iraklis: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Super League Greece
Asteras Tripolis

WDWLL

Full time0-2Mon, 7 Sep 202616:00UK
Iraklis

WWDLD

Model’s top convictions

76%

Asteras Tripolis or draw

70%

Over 1.5 goals

56%

Under 2.5 goals

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Asteras Tripolis 0-2 Iraklis
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Asteras Tripolis at 47.7%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 56.5% and it landed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 70.2% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 77.5% and it landed (2 goals). We called No at 51.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 69.8% and it landed. We called Yes at 72.5% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 63.0% and it missed (11 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 72.7% and it landed (6 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 60.8% and it landed (20 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 53.6% and it missed (7 shots on target). We called No at 73.3% and it landed.

Match data Asteras Tripolis Iraklis
Goals, 1st half 0 1
Goals, 2nd half 0 1
Shots 14 6
Shots on target 5 2
Corners 7 4
Yellow cards 3 3
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 15 12

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Asteras TripolisWin probability
47.7%
Top 3 convictions

Tripolis or draw75.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.32
Over 1.5 goals70.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.42
Under 2.5 goals56.5%Good chancePays @ 1.77

Model read

▾

The model leans Asteras Tripolis at 48% when Asteras Tripolis host Iraklis in the Super League Greece on 7 September 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Market and model are aligned here; the fair price says 48%. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 44% with both teams to score at 48%. 3) Iraklis are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. Form guide over the last six: Asteras Tripolis W2 D2 L2, Iraklis W3 D2 L1. The recent series reads 1 wins for Asteras Tripolis, 2 draws and 1 for Iraklis over 4 games, 2.5 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.006 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 8.5 corners47.7%@ 2.10
Over 2.5 goals43.5%@ 2.30
Over 9.5 corners37.4%@ 2.67
Medium risk

Draw or Iraklis52.3%@ 1.91
Not both teams to score51.9%@ 1.93
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.1%@ 7.62
1-0 correct score12.3%@ 8.13
0-0 correct score9.5%@ 10.48

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Tripolis

47.7%-0.7%

Draw

27.8%+0.6%

Iraklis

24.5%+0.0%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.006 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.570.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.543.5%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes48.1%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.547.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.537.4%

Toss-up

Over 10.528.3%

Low chance

Over 11.520.7%

Low chance

Most cornersAsteras Tripolis54.7%Iraklis34.1%

Shots markets

Over 22.550.6%

Good chance

Over 24.539.2%

Toss-up

Over 26.528.9%

Low chance

Over 28.520.3%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.570.2%2.543.5%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.570.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

Asteras TripolisWDWLL
IraklisWWDLD

Last 4 meetings: Asteras Tripolis 1 · 2 draws · Iraklis 1 · 2.5 goals/game.

2017-04-30Asteras Tripolis 2-2 Iraklis
2016-12-18Iraklis 1-1 Asteras Tripolis
2016-04-03Iraklis 0-1 Asteras Tripolis
2015-12-05Asteras Tripolis 1-2 Iraklis

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Asteras TripolisIraklis
League position#13 of 14#10 of 14
Record W-D-L0-0-20-1-1
Current streakL2D1
Record, home vs away0-0-10-1-1
Red cards this season01

Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Asteras Tripolis win1.962.10
Draw3.403.60
Iraklis win3.754.08
Over 2.5 goals2.102.30
Under 2.5 goals1.701.77

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Asteras Tripolis win2.10
Draw3.60
Iraklis win4.08
Both teams to score2.08

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.11
Over 1.5 goals1.43
Over 2.5 goals2.30
Over 3.5 goals4.44
Asteras Tripolis most2.10
Iraklis most4.08

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.61
Over 8.5 corners2.03
Over 9.5 corners2.70
Over 10.5 corners3.79
Asteras Tripolis most1.82
Iraklis most2.93

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.15
Over 3.5 cards1.38
Over 4.5 cards1.82
Over 5.5 cards2.68
Asteras Tripolis most2.77
Iraklis most2.20

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.53
Over 7.5 SoT1.87
Over 8.5 SoT2.39
Over 9.5 SoT3.18
Asteras Tripolis most1.88
Iraklis most2.88

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.98
Over 24.5 shots2.55
Over 26.5 shots3.46
Over 28.5 shots4.94
Asteras Tripolis most1.62
Iraklis most3.05

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.09
Over 22.5 fouls1.17
Over 24.5 fouls1.32
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 65.5% Over 7.5 53.5% Over 8.5 41.9% Over 9.5 31.5%
Most: Asteras Tripolis 53.2% Most: Iraklis 34.7%
Asteras Tripolis Over 4.2 44.3% Iraklis Over 4.2 31.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 87.0% Over 3.5 72.6% Over 4.5 54.9%
Most: Asteras Tripolis 36.1% Most: Iraklis 45.5%
Asteras Tripolis Over 1.8 67.7% Iraklis Over 1.8 73.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Asteras Tripolis clean sheet 37.9%
Iraklis clean sheet 23.4%
Asteras Tripolis win to nil 28.3%
Iraklis win to nil 13.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 47.7% draw 27.8% away 24.5%
double_chance
1X 75.5% 12 72.2% X2 52.3%
dnb
home 66.0% away 34.0%
btts
yes 48.1% no 51.9%
clean_sheet
home 38.0% away 23.5%
win_to_nil
home 28.5% away 13.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.8% home_by_2 14.6% home_by_3plus 9.3%
away_by_1 15.6% away_by_2 6.5% away_by_3plus 2.4%
correct_score
0-0 9.5% 0-1 8.0% 0-2 4.2%
0-3 1.3% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 12.3% 1-1 13.1% 1-2 6.0%
1-3 2.0% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.4% 2-1 9.1% 2-2 4.4%
2-3 1.4% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.5% 3-1 4.4% 3-2 2.1%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.7% 4-1 1.6% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.5% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.1%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.5% under_0.5 9.5% over_1.5 70.2%
under_1.5 29.8% over_2.5 43.5% under_2.5 56.5%
over_3.5 22.5% under_3.5 77.5% over_4.5 9.8%
under_4.5 90.2% over_5.5 3.7% under_5.5 96.3%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.7%
team_home
over_0.5 76.6% under_0.5 23.5% over_1.5 42.6%
under_1.5 57.4% over_2.5 17.9% under_2.5 82.1%
team_away
over_0.5 62.0% under_0.5 38.0% over_1.5 25.2%
under_1.5 74.8% over_2.5 7.4% under_2.5 92.6%
most
home 47.7% draw 27.8% away 24.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 9.3% away_+2.5 90.7% home_-1.5 23.9%
away_+1.5 76.1% home_-0.5 47.7% away_+0.5 52.3%
home_+0.5 75.5% away_-0.5 24.5% home_+1.5 91.1%
away_-1.5 8.9% home_+2.5 97.6% away_-2.5 2.4%
total_exact
exact_0 9.5% exact_1 20.3% exact_2 26.7%
exact_3 21.0% exact_4 12.7% exact_5 6.1%
exact_6 2.5% exact_7plus 1.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.0% draw 42.0% away 28.0%
total
over_0.5 69.8% under_0.5 30.2% over_1.5 33.6%
under_1.5 66.4% over_2.5 12.0% under_2.5 88.0%
btts
yes 20.3% no 79.7%
total_exact
exact_0 30.2% exact_1 36.2% exact_2 21.6%
exact_3 8.6% exact_4plus 3.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 42.9% draw 38.9% away 18.2%
total
over_0.5 72.5% under_0.5 27.6% over_1.5 36.9%
under_1.5 63.1% over_2.5 14.0% under_2.5 86.0%
btts
yes 20.5% no 79.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 25.7% H/D 3.4% H/A 0.8%
D/H 18.0% D/D 16.4% D/A 7.7%
A/H 3.4% A/D 6.5% A/A 18.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 61.9% under_7.5 38.1% over_8.5 49.2%
under_8.5 50.8% over_9.5 37.0% under_9.5 63.0%
over_10.5 26.4% under_10.5 73.6% over_11.5 17.9%
under_11.5 82.1% over_12.5 11.5% under_12.5 88.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.5% under_3.5 33.5% over_4.5 50.5%
under_4.5 49.5% over_5.5 35.7% under_5.5 64.3%
team_away
over_3.5 51.2% under_3.5 48.8% over_4.5 34.4%
under_4.5 65.6% over_5.5 21.3% under_5.5 78.7%
most
home 54.9% draw 10.9% away 34.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.8% away_+3.5 76.2% home_-1.5 43.7%
away_+1.5 56.3% home_-0.5 54.9% away_+0.5 45.1%
home_+0.5 65.8% away_-0.5 34.2% home_+1.5 75.5%
away_-1.5 24.5% home_+3.5 89.4% away_-3.5 10.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 50.6% under_22.5 49.4% over_24.5 39.2%
under_24.5 60.8% over_26.5 28.9% under_26.5 71.1%
over_28.5 20.3% under_28.5 79.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 64.3% under_10.5 35.7% over_12.5 48.7%
under_12.5 51.3% over_14.5 34.3% under_14.5 65.7%
team_away
over_10.5 43.8% under_10.5 56.2% over_12.5 28.4%
under_12.5 71.6% over_14.5 16.9% under_14.5 83.1%
most
home 61.5% draw 5.6% away 32.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.9% away_+4.5 62.1% home_-2.5 49.7%
away_+2.5 50.3% home_-0.5 61.5% away_+0.5 38.5%
home_+0.5 67.2% away_-0.5 32.8% home_+2.5 77.3%
away_-2.5 22.8% home_+4.5 85.3% away_-4.5 14.7%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 65.5% under_6.5 34.5% over_7.5 53.6%
under_7.5 46.5% over_8.5 41.9% under_8.5 58.1%
over_9.5 31.5% under_9.5 68.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 60.3% under_3.5 39.7% over_4.5 44.3%
under_4.5 55.7% over_5.5 30.5% under_5.5 69.5%
team_away
over_3.5 47.2% under_3.5 52.8% over_4.5 31.1%
under_4.5 68.9% over_5.5 19.1% under_5.5 80.9%
most
home 53.2% draw 12.0% away 34.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 29.8% away_+2.5 70.2% home_-0.5 53.2%
away_+0.5 46.8% home_+0.5 65.3% away_-0.5 34.7%
home_+2.5 84.4% away_-2.5 15.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 87.0% under_2.5 13.0% over_3.5 72.7%
under_3.5 27.4% over_4.5 54.9% under_4.5 45.1%
over_5.5 37.4% under_5.5 62.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 67.7% under_1.5 32.3% over_2.5 41.3%
under_2.5 58.7%
team_away
over_1.5 73.4% under_1.5 26.7% over_2.5 48.3%
under_2.5 51.7%
most
home 36.1% draw 18.4% away 45.5%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.6% away_+1.5 79.4% home_-0.5 36.1%
away_+0.5 63.9% home_+0.5 54.5% away_-0.5 45.5%
home_+1.5 71.8% away_-1.5 28.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 91.9% under_20.5 8.1% over_22.5 85.2%
under_22.5 14.8% over_24.5 75.9% under_24.5 24.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 84.8% under_9.5 15.3% over_11.5 69.8%
under_11.5 30.2% over_13.5 51.8% under_13.5 48.2%
team_away
over_9.5 89.8% under_9.5 10.3% over_11.5 77.9%
under_11.5 22.1% over_13.5 61.8% under_13.5 38.2%
most
home 39.7% draw 6.3% away 54.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.8% away_+3.5 77.2% home_-0.5 39.7%
away_+0.5 60.3% home_+2.5 58.9% away_-2.5 41.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 26.7% no 73.3%
home
yes 10.3% no 89.7%
away
yes 18.3% no 81.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Asteras Tripolis predictions · Iraklis predictions · Super League Greece

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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