AEK vs Aris prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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AEK vs Aris: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Super League Greece
AEK

WDDWD

Full time5-0Sat, 5 Sep 202619:00UK
Aris

WWWWW

Model’s top convictions

81%

AEK or draw

70%

Over 1.5 goals

57%

Under 2.5 goals

Full time7 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

AEK 5-0 Aris
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was AEK at 55.1%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 56.7% and it missed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 69.9% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 77.7% and it missed (5 goals). We called No at 55.0% and it landed. We called Yes at 56.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 79.6% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 65.2% and it landed (4 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 77.9% and it missed (2 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 59.9% and it missed (28 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 52.7% and it landed (12 shots on target). We called No at 76.7% and it landed.

Match data AEK Aris
Goals, 1st half 1 0
Goals, 2nd half 4 0
Shots 21 7
Shots on target 10 2
Corners 2 2
Yellow cards 2 0
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 16 17

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AEKWin probability
55.1%
Top 3 convictions

AEK or draw81.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Over 1.5 goals69.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.43
Under 2.5 goals56.7%Good chancePays @ 1.76

Model read

▾

AEK go into this Super League Greece meeting with Aris on 5 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 55%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing AEK at 70%. Caution noted. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 43% with both teams to score at 45%. 3) Form guide over the last six: AEK W2 D4 L0, Aris W6 D0 L0. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for AEK, 2 draws and 0 for Aris at 2.0 goals per match. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 8.5 corners45.8%@ 2.18
Draw or Aris44.9%@ 2.23
Over 2.5 goals43.3%@ 2.31
Medium risk

Not both teams to score55.0%@ 1.82
Random finds

1-0 correct score13.7%@ 7.28
1-1 correct score12.3%@ 8.16
2-0 correct score11.4%@ 8.78

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

AEK

55.1%-15.2%

Draw

26.2%+6.7%

Aris

18.7%+8.6%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.10)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.569.9%

Strong chance

Over 2.543.3%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes45.0%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.545.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.535.5%

Toss-up

Over 10.526.6%

Low chance

Over 11.519.3%

Low chance

Most cornersAEK56.1%Aris32.6%

Shots markets

Over 22.551.6%

Good chance

Over 24.540.1%

Toss-up

Over 26.529.7%

Low chance

Over 28.520.9%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.569.9%2.543.3%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.569.9%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

AEKWDDWD
ArisWWWWW

Last 5 meetings: AEK 3 · 2 draws · Aris 0 · 2.0 goals/game.

2026-01-11Aris 1-1 AEK
2025-11-23AEK 1-0 Aris
2025-03-09Aris 0-0 AEK
2024-11-30AEK 4-0 Aris
2024-04-21Aris 1-2 AEK

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AEKAris
League position#5 of 14#3 of 14
Record W-D-L1-1-02-0-0
Current streakD1W2
Record, home vs away1-0-01-0-0
Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
AEK win1.351.81
Draw4.503.82
Aris win8.005.35
Over 2.5 goals1.802.31
Under 2.5 goals2.001.76

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

AEK win1.82
Draw3.81
Aris win5.35
Both teams to score2.22

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.11
Over 1.5 goals1.43
Over 2.5 goals2.31
Over 3.5 goals4.48
AEK most1.82
Aris most5.35

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.67
Over 8.5 corners2.13
Over 9.5 corners2.88
Over 10.5 corners4.09
AEK most1.78
Aris most3.06

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.11
Over 3.5 cards1.28
Over 4.5 cards1.62
Over 5.5 cards2.26
AEK most3.12
Aris most1.97

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.55
Over 7.5 SoT1.90
Over 8.5 SoT2.43
Over 9.5 SoT3.25
AEK most1.69
Aris most3.41

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.94
Over 24.5 shots2.49
Over 26.5 shots3.37
Over 28.5 shots4.79
AEK most1.57
Aris most3.25

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.08
Over 22.5 fouls1.15
Over 24.5 fouls1.28
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 64.7% Over 7.5 52.7% Over 8.5 41.1% Over 9.5 30.7%
Most: AEK 59.0% Most: Aris 29.4%
AEK Over 4.2 47.6% Aris Over 4.2 26.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 90.1% Over 3.5 77.9% Over 4.5 61.6%
Most: AEK 32.0% Most: Aris 50.7%
AEK Over 1.8 68.9% Aris Over 1.8 79.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

AEK clean sheet 43.9%
Aris clean sheet 20.4%
AEK win to nil 34.3%
Aris win to nil 10.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 55.1% draw 26.2% away 18.7%
double_chance
1X 81.3% 12 73.8% X2 44.9%
dnb
home 74.7% away 25.3%
btts
yes 45.0% no 55.0%
clean_sheet
home 44.2% away 20.4%
win_to_nil
home 34.6% away 10.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 25.3% home_by_2 17.2% home_by_3plus 12.6%
away_by_1 12.7% away_by_2 4.6% away_by_3plus 1.4%
correct_score
0-0 9.6% 0-1 6.8% 0-2 3.0%
0-3 0.8% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 13.7% 1-1 12.3% 1-2 4.8%
1-3 1.3% 1-4 0.3% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 11.4% 2-1 9.3% 2-2 3.8%
2-3 1.0% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 6.1% 3-1 4.9% 3-2 2.0%
3-3 0.5% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.4% 4-1 2.0% 4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.8% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 0.0% p 13.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.4% under_0.5 9.6% over_1.5 69.9%
under_1.5 30.1% over_2.5 43.3% under_2.5 56.7%
over_3.5 22.3% under_3.5 77.7% over_4.5 9.7%
under_4.5 90.3% over_5.5 3.6% under_5.5 96.4%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 79.6% under_0.5 20.4% over_1.5 47.2%
under_1.5 52.8% over_2.5 21.4% under_2.5 78.6%
team_away
over_0.5 55.8% under_0.5 44.2% over_1.5 19.8%
under_1.5 80.2% over_2.5 5.1% under_2.5 94.9%
most
home 55.1% draw 26.2% away 18.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 12.6% away_+2.5 87.4% home_-1.5 29.8%
away_+1.5 70.2% home_-0.5 55.1% away_+0.5 44.9%
home_+0.5 81.3% away_-0.5 18.7% home_+1.5 94.0%
away_-1.5 6.0% home_+2.5 98.6% away_-2.5 1.4%
total_exact
exact_0 9.6% exact_1 20.5% exact_2 26.7%
exact_3 20.9% exact_4 12.6% exact_5 6.1%
exact_6 2.4% exact_7plus 1.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.9% draw 50.9% away 17.2%
total
over_0.5 56.4% under_0.5 43.6% over_1.5 20.2%
under_1.5 79.8% over_2.5 5.2% under_2.5 94.8%
btts
yes 10.8% no 89.2%
total_exact
exact_0 43.6% exact_1 36.2% exact_2 15.0%
exact_3 4.2% exact_4plus 1.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 53.6% draw 32.2% away 14.3%
total
over_0.5 79.6% under_0.5 20.4% over_1.5 47.1%
under_1.5 52.9% over_2.5 21.4% under_2.5 78.6%
btts
yes 24.4% no 75.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 28.2% H/D 3.0% H/A 0.7%
D/H 27.3% D/D 16.4% D/A 7.3%
A/H 3.7% A/D 4.8% A/A 8.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 59.8% under_7.5 40.2% over_8.5 46.9%
under_8.5 53.1% over_9.5 34.8% under_9.5 65.2%
over_10.5 24.5% under_10.5 75.5% over_11.5 16.3%
under_11.5 83.7% over_12.5 10.4% under_12.5 89.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.2% under_3.5 33.8% over_4.5 50.1%
under_4.5 49.9% over_5.5 35.3% under_5.5 64.8%
team_away
over_3.5 48.5% under_3.5 51.5% over_4.5 31.9%
under_4.5 68.1% over_5.5 19.2% under_5.5 80.8%
most
home 56.3% draw 10.9% away 32.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.5% away_+3.5 75.5% home_-1.5 44.9%
away_+1.5 55.1% home_-0.5 56.3% away_+0.5 43.7%
home_+0.5 67.3% away_-0.5 32.7% home_+1.5 76.9%
away_-1.5 23.1% home_+3.5 90.4% away_-3.5 9.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 51.6% under_22.5 48.4% over_24.5 40.1%
under_24.5 59.9% over_26.5 29.7% under_26.5 70.3%
over_28.5 20.9% under_28.5 79.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 66.2% under_10.5 33.8% over_12.5 50.9%
under_12.5 49.1% over_14.5 36.4% under_14.5 63.6%
team_away
over_10.5 42.7% under_10.5 57.3% over_12.5 27.4%
under_12.5 72.6% over_14.5 16.1% under_14.5 83.9%
most
home 63.8% draw 5.5% away 30.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 40.2% away_+4.5 59.8% home_-2.5 52.0%
away_+2.5 48.0% home_-0.5 63.8% away_+0.5 36.2%
home_+0.5 69.3% away_-0.5 30.8% home_+2.5 78.9%
away_-2.5 21.1% home_+4.5 86.5% away_-4.5 13.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 64.7% under_6.5 35.3% over_7.5 52.7%
under_7.5 47.3% over_8.5 41.1% under_8.5 58.9%
over_9.5 30.7% under_9.5 69.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 63.3% under_3.5 36.7% over_4.5 47.6%
under_4.5 52.4% over_5.5 33.6% under_5.5 66.4%
team_away
over_3.5 42.0% under_3.5 58.0% over_4.5 26.4%
under_4.5 73.6% over_5.5 15.4% under_5.5 84.6%
most
home 59.0% draw 11.7% away 29.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 34.9% away_+2.5 65.1% home_-0.5 59.0%
away_+0.5 41.0% home_+0.5 70.7% away_-0.5 29.3%
home_+2.5 87.9% away_-2.5 12.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 90.1% under_2.5 9.9% over_3.5 77.9%
under_3.5 22.1% over_4.5 61.6% under_4.5 38.4%
over_5.5 44.2% under_5.5 55.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 68.9% under_1.5 31.1% over_2.5 42.7%
under_2.5 57.3%
team_away
over_1.5 79.3% under_1.5 20.7% over_2.5 56.5%
under_2.5 43.6%
most
home 32.0% draw 17.3% away 50.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.0% away_+1.5 82.0% home_-0.5 32.0%
away_+0.5 68.0% home_+0.5 49.3% away_-0.5 50.7%
home_+1.5 66.6% away_-1.5 33.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 93.0% under_20.5 7.0% over_22.5 86.9%
under_22.5 13.1% over_24.5 78.2% under_24.5 21.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 87.2% under_9.5 12.8% over_11.5 73.6%
under_11.5 26.4% over_13.5 56.4% under_13.5 43.6%
team_away
over_9.5 89.7% under_9.5 10.3% over_11.5 77.8%
under_11.5 22.2% over_13.5 61.7% under_13.5 38.3%
most
home 43.0% draw 6.4% away 50.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.5% away_+3.5 74.5% home_-0.5 43.0%
away_+0.5 57.0% home_+2.5 62.0% away_-2.5 38.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 23.3% no 76.7%
home
yes 10.3% no 89.7%
away
yes 14.5% no 85.5%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: AEK predictions · Aris predictions · Super League Greece

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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