Volos NFC vs Olympiakos prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Volos NFC vs Olympiakos: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Super League Greece
Volos NFC

LLLLD

Full time1-1Sat, 5 Sep 202617:00UK
Olympiakos

DWDWW

Model’s top convictions

85%

Draw or Olympiakos

68%

Over 1.5 goals

59%

Under 2.5 goals

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Volos NFC 1-1 Olympiakos
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Olympiakos at 58.8%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 59.0% and it landed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 68.0% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 79.4% and it landed (2 goals). We called No at 58.9% and it missed. We called Yes at 65.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 70.3% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 66.5% and it landed (9 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 72.9% and it landed (7 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 61.0% and it landed (23 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 56.2% and it missed (5 shots on target). We called No at 80.8% and it landed.

Match data Volos NFC Olympiakos
Goals, 1st half 0 1
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 6 17
Shots on target 1 4
Corners 0 9
Yellow cards 6 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 15 19

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
OlympiakosWin probability
58.8%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or Olympiakos84.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.18
Over 1.5 goals68.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.47
Under 2.5 goals59.0%Good chancePays @ 1.69

Model read

▾

Olympiakos go into this Super League Greece meeting with Volos NFC on 5 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 59%. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Olympiakos higher (78%) than our model does. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 41% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 41%. The recent series reads 0 wins for Volos NFC, 0 draws and 5 for Olympiakos over 5 games, 2.2 goals on average. Recent form reads W0 D1 L5 for Volos NFC against W3 D2 L1 for Olympiakos. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 8.5 corners44.6%@ 2.24
Volos NFC or draw41.2%@ 2.43
Over 2.5 goals41.0%@ 2.44
Medium risk

Not both teams to score58.9%@ 1.70
Random finds

0-1 correct score15.3%@ 6.53
0-2 correct score12.9%@ 7.78
1-1 correct score11.7%@ 8.55

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Volos NFC

15.5%+9.4%

Draw

25.7%+10.1%

Olympiakos

58.8%-19.4%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.16)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.568.0%

Strong chance

Over 2.541.0%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes41.1%

Toss-up

Corners markets

Over 8.544.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.534.4%

Toss-up

Over 10.525.6%

Low chance

Over 11.518.4%

Low chance

Most cornersVolos NFC47.2%Olympiakos41.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.550.4%

Good chance

Over 24.539.0%

Toss-up

Over 26.528.8%

Low chance

Over 28.520.3%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.568.0%2.541.0%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.568.0%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

Volos NFCLLLLD
OlympiakosDWDWW

Last 5 meetings: Volos NFC 0 · 0 draws · Olympiakos 5 · 2.2 goals/game.

2026-01-24Olympiakos 1-0 Volos NFC
2025-08-30Volos NFC 0-2 Olympiakos
2024-12-07Olympiakos 3-0 Volos NFC
2024-08-17Volos NFC 0-2 Olympiakos
2024-03-03Olympiakos 3-0 Volos NFC

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Volos NFCOlympiakos
League position#9 of 14#4 of 14
Record W-D-L0-1-12-0-0
Current streakD1W2
Record, home vs away0-1-01-0-0
Red cards this season01

Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Volos NFC win12.006.45
Draw5.503.89
Olympiakos win1.221.70
Over 2.5 goals1.672.44
Under 2.5 goals2.151.69

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Volos NFC win6.46
Draw3.89
Olympiakos win1.70
Both teams to score2.43

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.12
Over 1.5 goals1.47
Over 2.5 goals2.44
Over 3.5 goals4.86
Volos NFC most6.46
Olympiakos most1.70

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.71
Over 8.5 corners2.20
Over 9.5 corners2.98
Over 10.5 corners4.28
Volos NFC most2.11
Olympiakos most2.43

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.15
Over 3.5 cards1.37
Over 4.5 cards1.81
Over 5.5 cards2.66
Volos NFC most2.19
Olympiakos most2.77

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.47
Over 7.5 SoT1.78
Over 8.5 SoT2.24
Over 9.5 SoT2.94
Volos NFC most2.73
Olympiakos most1.94

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.98
Over 24.5 shots2.56
Over 26.5 shots3.47
Over 28.5 shots4.94
Volos NFC most1.97
Olympiakos most2.31

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.11
Over 22.5 fouls1.22
Over 24.5 fouls1.39
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 67.9% Over 7.5 56.2% Over 8.5 44.6% Over 9.5 34.0%
Most: Volos NFC 36.6% Most: Olympiakos 51.4%
Volos NFC Over 4.2 34.3% Olympiakos Over 4.2 44.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 87.2% Over 3.5 72.9% Over 4.5 55.2%
Most: Volos NFC 45.6% Most: Olympiakos 36.1%
Volos NFC Over 1.8 73.6% Olympiakos Over 1.8 67.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Volos NFC clean sheet 19.8%
Olympiakos clean sheet 49.2%
Volos NFC win to nil 9.4%
Olympiakos win to nil 38.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 15.5% draw 25.7% away 58.8%
double_chance
1X 41.2% 12 74.3% X2 84.5%
dnb
home 20.8% away 79.1%
btts
yes 41.1% no 58.9%
clean_sheet
home 19.8% away 49.5%
win_to_nil
home 9.5% away 39.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 11.1% home_by_2 3.5% home_by_3plus 0.9%
away_by_1 26.2% away_by_2 18.5% away_by_3plus 14.1%
correct_score
0-0 10.4% 0-1 15.3% 0-2 12.9%
0-3 6.9% 0-4 2.8% 0-5 0.9%
1-0 6.3% 1-1 11.7% 1-2 9.0%
1-3 4.9% 1-4 2.0% 1-5 0.6%
2-0 2.4% 2-1 3.9% 2-2 3.2%
2-3 1.7% 2-4 0.7% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 0.6% 3-1 0.9% 3-2 0.8%
3-3 0.4% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.1% 4-1 0.2% 4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.1% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.0% 5-1 0.0% 5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 0.0% a 100.0% p 15.3%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 89.6% under_0.5 10.4% over_1.5 68.0%
under_1.5 32.0% over_2.5 41.0% under_2.5 59.0%
over_3.5 20.6% under_3.5 79.4% over_4.5 8.7%
under_4.5 91.3% over_5.5 3.1% under_5.5 96.9%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 50.5% under_0.5 49.5% over_1.5 15.8%
under_1.5 84.3% over_2.5 3.5% under_2.5 96.5%
team_away
over_0.5 80.2% under_0.5 19.8% over_1.5 48.1%
under_1.5 51.9% over_2.5 22.2% under_2.5 77.8%
most
home 15.5% draw 25.7% away 58.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 0.9% away_+2.5 99.1% home_-1.5 4.4%
away_+1.5 95.6% home_-0.5 15.5% away_+0.5 84.5%
home_+0.5 41.2% away_-0.5 58.8% home_+1.5 67.4%
away_-1.5 32.6% home_+2.5 85.9% away_-2.5 14.1%
total_exact
exact_0 10.4% exact_1 21.6% exact_2 27.0%
exact_3 20.5% exact_4 11.9% exact_5 5.5%
exact_6 2.1% exact_7plus 1.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 10.8% draw 41.9% away 47.3%
total
over_0.5 65.6% under_0.5 34.4% over_1.5 28.8%
under_1.5 71.2% over_2.5 9.3% under_2.5 90.7%
btts
yes 12.4% no 87.6%
total_exact
exact_0 34.4% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 19.6%
exact_3 7.0% exact_4plus 2.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 17.5% draw 40.3% away 42.2%
total
over_0.5 70.3% under_0.5 29.7% over_1.5 34.3%
under_1.5 65.8% over_2.5 12.4% under_2.5 87.6%
btts
yes 18.6% no 81.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 6.6% H/D 2.8% H/A 1.4%
D/H 7.3% D/D 16.9% D/A 17.7%
A/H 1.0% A/D 4.8% A/A 41.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 58.5% under_7.5 41.5% over_8.5 45.5%
under_8.5 54.5% over_9.5 33.5% under_9.5 66.5%
over_10.5 23.4% under_10.5 76.6% over_11.5 15.5%
under_11.5 84.5% over_12.5 9.7% under_12.5 90.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 59.4% under_3.5 40.6% over_4.5 42.7%
under_4.5 57.3% over_5.5 28.4% under_5.5 71.6%
team_away
over_3.5 54.7% under_3.5 45.3% over_4.5 37.9%
under_4.5 62.1% over_5.5 24.2% under_5.5 75.8%
most
home 47.4% draw 11.5% away 41.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 17.8% away_+3.5 82.2% home_-1.5 36.2%
away_+1.5 63.8% home_-0.5 47.4% away_+0.5 52.6%
home_+0.5 58.9% away_-0.5 41.1% home_+1.5 69.6%
away_-1.5 30.4% home_+3.5 86.0% away_-3.5 14.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 50.4% under_22.5 49.6% over_24.5 39.0%
under_24.5 61.0% over_26.5 28.8% under_26.5 71.2%
over_28.5 20.3% under_28.5 79.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 57.0% under_10.5 43.0% over_12.5 41.0%
under_12.5 59.0% over_14.5 27.3% under_14.5 72.7%
team_away
over_10.5 51.9% under_10.5 48.1% over_12.5 35.9%
under_12.5 64.1% over_14.5 22.9% under_14.5 77.1%
most
home 50.6% draw 6.0% away 43.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 27.9% away_+4.5 72.1% home_-2.5 38.8%
away_+2.5 61.2% home_-0.5 50.6% away_+0.5 49.4%
home_+0.5 56.6% away_-0.5 43.4% home_+2.5 68.0%
away_-2.5 32.0% home_+4.5 77.9% away_-4.5 22.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 67.9% under_6.5 32.1% over_7.5 56.2%
under_7.5 43.8% over_8.5 44.6% under_8.5 55.4%
over_9.5 34.0% under_9.5 66.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 50.5% under_3.5 49.5% over_4.5 34.3%
under_4.5 65.7% over_5.5 21.7% under_5.5 78.3%
team_away
over_3.5 60.9% under_3.5 39.1% over_4.5 45.0%
under_4.5 55.1% over_5.5 31.1% under_5.5 68.9%
most
home 36.6% draw 11.9% away 51.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 17.2% away_+2.5 82.8% home_-0.5 36.6%
away_+0.5 63.4% home_+0.5 48.6% away_-0.5 51.4%
home_+2.5 71.3% away_-2.5 28.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 87.2% under_2.5 12.8% over_3.5 72.9%
under_3.5 27.1% over_4.5 55.2% under_4.5 44.8%
over_5.5 37.7% under_5.5 62.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 73.6% under_1.5 26.4% over_2.5 48.6%
under_2.5 51.4%
team_away
over_1.5 67.9% under_1.5 32.1% over_2.5 41.5%
under_2.5 58.5%
most
home 45.6% draw 18.3% away 36.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 28.3% away_+1.5 71.7% home_-0.5 45.6%
away_+0.5 54.4% home_+0.5 63.9% away_-0.5 36.1%
home_+1.5 79.4% away_-1.5 20.6%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 90.0% under_20.5 10.1% over_22.5 82.2%
under_22.5 17.8% over_24.5 71.9% under_24.5 28.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 82.4% under_9.5 17.6% over_11.5 66.2%
under_11.5 33.8% over_13.5 47.7% under_13.5 52.3%
team_away
over_9.5 88.4% under_9.5 11.6% over_11.5 75.6%
under_11.5 24.5% over_13.5 58.8% under_13.5 41.2%
most
home 39.0% draw 6.4% away 54.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.1% away_+3.5 77.9% home_-0.5 39.0%
away_+0.5 61.0% home_+2.5 58.4% away_-2.5 41.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 19.2% no 80.8%
home
yes 9.4% no 90.6%
away
yes 10.8% no 89.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Volos NFC predictions · Olympiakos predictions · Super League Greece

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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