Portsmouth vs Cardiff: model prediction
ChampionshipPortsmouth or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time10 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Portsmouth at 49.3%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 51.2% and it landed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 74.3% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 73.1% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 52.0% and it missed. We called Yes at 76.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 73.9% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 58.0% and it landed (12 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 50.1% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 52.2% and it landed (31 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 56.6% and it landed (10 shots on target). We called No at 94.5% and it landed.
| Match data | Portsmouth | Cardiff |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 1 | 0 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 1 | 0 |
| Shots | 15 | 16 |
| Shots on target | 5 | 5 |
| Corners | 5 | 7 |
| Yellow cards | 0 | 4 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 15 | 12 |
Final match data.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
A measured edge to Portsmouth: 49% is the model's line for this Championship meeting on 5 September 2026. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Portsmouth than the market (40%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) No strong lean on goals (49% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) As a promoted side, Cardiff carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. The recent series reads 1 wins for Portsmouth, 0 draws and 1 for Cardiff over 2 games, 2.5 goals on average. The run in: Portsmouth arrive W2 D1 L3, Cardiff W0 D4 L2. Verdict: no bet. Trust gate: no_trust (segment historically unreliable).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
49.3%+8.9%
26.3%-0.7%
24.4%-8.2%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Portsmouth 1 · 0 draws · Cardiff 1 · 2.5 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.94 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 73%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 69.2% | Over 7.5 | 56.6% | Over 8.5 | 44.0% | Over 9.5 | 32.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Portsmouth | 53.2% | Most: Cardiff | 34.1% | ||||
| Portsmouth Over 4.2 | 46.1% | Cardiff Over 4.2 | 32.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 71.1% | Over 3.5 | 50.2% | Over 4.5 | 30.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Portsmouth | 31.3% | Most: Cardiff | 47.4% | ||
| Portsmouth Over 1.8 | 48.7% | Cardiff Over 1.8 | 60.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Portsmouth clean sheet | 35.1% |
|---|---|
| Cardiff clean sheet | 20.5% |
| Portsmouth win to nil | 27.2% |
| Cardiff win to nil | 12.7% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 49.3% | draw | 26.3% | away | 24.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 75.6% | 12 | 73.7% | X2 | 50.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 66.9% | away | 33.2% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 52.0% | no | 48.0% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 35.3% | away | 20.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 27.4% | away | 12.7% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 23.3% | home_by_2 | 15.2% | home_by_3plus | 10.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 15.2% | away_by_2 | 6.6% | away_by_3plus | 2.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.9% | 0-1 | 7.0% | 0-2 | 3.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.4% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 10.9% | 1-1 | 12.6% | 1-2 | 6.2% |
| 1-3 | 2.2% | 1-4 | 0.6% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 9.1% | 2-1 | 9.5% | 2-2 | 4.9% |
| 2-3 | 1.7% | 2-4 | 0.4% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 4.8% | 3-1 | 5.0% | 3-2 | 2.6% |
| 3-3 | 0.9% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 1.9% | 4-1 | 2.0% | 4-2 | 1.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.4% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.6% | 5-1 | 0.6% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.2% | under_0.5 | 7.9% | over_1.5 | 74.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 25.7% | over_2.5 | 48.8% | under_2.5 | 51.2% |
| over_3.5 | 26.9% | under_3.5 | 73.1% | over_4.5 | 12.6% |
| under_4.5 | 87.4% | over_5.5 | 5.1% | under_5.5 | 94.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 79.4% | under_0.5 | 20.6% | over_1.5 | 46.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 53.1% | over_2.5 | 21.2% | under_2.5 | 78.8% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 64.7% | under_0.5 | 35.3% | over_1.5 | 28.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 72.0% | over_2.5 | 8.8% | under_2.5 | 91.2% |
most
| home | 49.3% | draw | 26.3% | away | 24.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 10.8% | away_+2.5 | 89.3% | home_-1.5 | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 74.1% | home_-0.5 | 49.3% | away_+0.5 | 50.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 75.6% | away_-0.5 | 24.4% | home_+1.5 | 90.7% |
| away_-1.5 | 9.3% | home_+2.5 | 97.4% | away_-2.5 | 2.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.9% | exact_1 | 17.8% | exact_2 | 25.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.8% | exact_4 | 14.3% | exact_5 | 7.5% |
| exact_6 | 3.3% | exact_7plus | 1.8% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 33.3% | draw | 37.6% | away | 29.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.3% | under_0.5 | 23.7% | over_1.5 | 42.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.8% | over_2.5 | 17.7% | under_2.5 | 82.3% |
btts
| yes | 26.3% | no | 73.7% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 23.7% | exact_1 | 34.1% | exact_2 | 24.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 11.8% | exact_4plus | 5.9% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.5% | draw | 39.1% | away | 26.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.9% | under_0.5 | 26.1% | over_1.5 | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.1% | over_2.5 | 15.3% | under_2.5 | 84.7% |
btts
| yes | 23.7% | no | 76.3% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 26.7% | H/D | 5.0% | H/A | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 13.0% | D/D | 14.7% | D/A | 9.9% |
| A/H | 2.4% | A/D | 5.5% | A/A | 21.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 79.6% | under_7.5 | 20.4% | over_8.5 | 69.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 30.6% | over_9.5 | 58.0% | under_9.5 | 42.0% |
| over_10.5 | 46.4% | under_10.5 | 53.7% | over_11.5 | 35.4% |
| under_11.5 | 64.6% | over_12.5 | 25.8% | under_12.5 | 74.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 80.4% | under_3.5 | 19.6% | over_4.5 | 67.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 32.9% | over_5.5 | 52.4% | under_5.5 | 47.6% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.5% | under_3.5 | 37.5% | over_4.5 | 45.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.8% | over_5.5 | 30.1% | under_5.5 | 69.9% |
most
| home | 59.7% | draw | 9.9% | away | 30.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 29.1% | away_+3.5 | 70.9% | home_-1.5 | 49.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 50.8% | home_-0.5 | 59.7% | away_+0.5 | 40.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 69.7% | away_-0.5 | 30.3% | home_+1.5 | 78.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.7% | home_+3.5 | 90.6% | away_-3.5 | 9.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 64.6% | under_22.5 | 35.4% | over_24.5 | 52.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 47.8% | over_26.5 | 39.9% | under_26.5 | 60.1% |
| over_28.5 | 28.8% | under_28.5 | 71.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 76.6% | under_10.5 | 23.4% | over_12.5 | 61.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 38.8% | over_14.5 | 44.9% | under_14.5 | 55.1% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 51.3% | under_10.5 | 48.7% | over_12.5 | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 66.7% | over_14.5 | 19.4% | under_14.5 | 80.6% |
most
| home | 66.3% | draw | 5.6% | away | 28.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 41.4% | away_+4.5 | 58.6% | home_-2.5 | 54.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 46.0% | home_-0.5 | 66.3% | away_+0.5 | 33.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 71.9% | away_-0.5 | 28.1% | home_+2.5 | 81.5% |
| away_-2.5 | 18.5% | home_+4.5 | 88.8% | away_-4.5 | 11.2% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 69.2% | under_6.5 | 30.8% | over_7.5 | 56.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 43.4% | over_8.5 | 44.0% | under_8.5 | 56.0% |
| over_9.5 | 32.4% | under_9.5 | 67.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 63.5% | under_3.5 | 36.5% | over_4.5 | 46.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.9% | over_5.5 | 30.8% | under_5.5 | 69.2% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 50.0% | under_3.5 | 50.0% | over_4.5 | 32.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 67.6% | over_5.5 | 19.1% | under_5.5 | 80.9% |
most
| home | 53.2% | draw | 12.7% | away | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 28.5% | away_+2.5 | 71.5% | home_-0.5 | 53.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.8% | home_+0.5 | 65.9% | away_-0.5 | 34.1% |
| home_+2.5 | 85.6% | away_-2.5 | 14.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 71.1% | under_2.5 | 28.9% | over_3.5 | 50.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 49.9% | over_4.5 | 30.9% | under_4.5 | 69.1% |
| over_5.5 | 16.7% | under_5.5 | 83.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 48.7% | under_1.5 | 51.3% | over_2.5 | 22.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 77.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 60.5% | under_1.5 | 39.5% | over_2.5 | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 66.5% |
most
| home | 31.3% | draw | 21.3% | away | 47.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 15.1% | away_+1.5 | 84.9% | home_-0.5 | 31.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 68.7% | home_+0.5 | 52.6% | away_-0.5 | 47.4% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.7% | away_-1.5 | 27.3% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 63.3% | under_20.5 | 36.7% | over_22.5 | 47.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 52.3% | over_24.5 | 33.0% | under_24.5 | 67.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 57.6% | under_9.5 | 42.4% | over_11.5 | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 64.8% | over_13.5 | 18.0% | under_13.5 | 82.0% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 74.0% | under_9.5 | 26.0% | over_11.5 | 53.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 46.5% | over_13.5 | 33.3% | under_13.5 | 66.7% |
most
| home | 33.5% | draw | 7.5% | away | 59.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 15.4% | away_+3.5 | 84.6% | home_-0.5 | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 66.5% | home_+2.5 | 56.6% | away_-2.5 | 43.4% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 5.5% | no | 94.5% |
|---|
home
| yes | 1.6% | no | 98.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 4.0% | no | 96.0% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Portsmouth predictions · Cardiff predictions · Championship
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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