Preston vs Blackburn prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Preston vs Blackburn: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Championship
Preston

LLLLL

Full time2-1Sat, 5 Sep 202612:30UK
Blackburn

LDWLD

Model’s top convictions

67%

Over 8.5 corners

67%

Preston or draw

66%

Over 1.5 goals

Full time6 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Preston 2-1 Blackburn
✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Preston at 36.5%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 61.3% and it missed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 66.1% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 81.2% and it landed (3 goals). We called No at 54.0% and it missed. We called Yes at 61.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 72.2% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 58.4% and it landed (14 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 52.0% and it missed (6 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 50.1% and it missed (20 shots). We called Under 7.5 at 52.4% and it missed (8 shots on target). We called No at 92.6% and it landed.

Match data Preston Blackburn
Goals, 1st half 2 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 1
Shots 8 12
Shots on target 3 5
Corners 3 11
Yellow cards 4 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 11 9

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
PrestonWin probability
36.5%
Top 3 convictions

Over 8.5 corners66.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.49
Preston or draw66.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.50
Over 1.5 goals66.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.51

Model read

▾

Preston versus Blackburn in the Championship on 5 September 2026 is finely balanced. Preston edge it at 36%, but the gap to the field is slim. The numbers that frame it: • The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Preston at 41%. Caution noted. • This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 39% with both teams to score at 46%. • Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 0 wins for Preston, 2 draws and 3 for Blackburn, averaging 2.2 goals a game. • Form guide over the last six: Preston W1 D0 L5, Blackburn W2 D2 L2. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.024 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners46.0%@ 2.17
Over 2.5 goals38.7%@ 2.58
Over 11.5 corners36.3%@ 2.75
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals61.3%@ 1.63
Over 9.5 corners56.4%@ 1.77
Not both teams to score54.0%@ 1.85
Random finds

1-1 correct score14.0%@ 7.14
1-0 correct score11.6%@ 8.61
0-0 correct score11.3%@ 8.82

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Preston

36.5%-4.3%

Draw

30.2%+1.9%

Blackburn

33.3%+2.4%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.024 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.566.1%

Strong chance

Over 2.538.7%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes46.0%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.566.9%

Strong chance

Over 9.556.4%

Good chance

Over 10.546.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.536.3%

Toss-up

Most cornersPreston52.7%Blackburn36.8%

Shots markets

Over 22.562.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.550.1%

Good chance

Over 26.538.0%

Toss-up

Over 28.527.1%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.566.1%2.538.7%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.566.1%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

PrestonLLLLL
BlackburnLDWLD

Last 5 meetings: Preston 0 · 2 draws · Blackburn 3 · 2.2 goals/game.

2026-02-20Blackburn 1-0 Preston
2025-11-21Preston 1-2 Blackburn
2025-01-31Blackburn 2-1 Preston
2024-09-22Preston 0-0 Blackburn
2024-02-17Preston 2-2 Blackburn

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

PrestonBlackburn
League position#24 of 24#14 of 24
Record W-D-L0-0-41-2-1
Current streakL4D1
Record, home vs away0-0-20-2-0
Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 2.94 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 73%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Preston win2.302.74
Draw3.253.31
Blackburn win3.003.00
Over 2.5 goals2.002.58
Under 2.5 goals1.851.63

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Preston win2.74
Draw3.32
Blackburn win3.00
Both teams to score2.18

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.13
Over 1.5 goals1.51
Over 2.5 goals2.58
Over 3.5 goals5.32
Preston most2.74
Blackburn most3.00

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.25
Over 8.5 corners1.43
Over 9.5 corners1.71
Over 10.5 corners2.14
Preston most1.90
Blackburn most2.71

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.44
Over 3.5 cards2.08
Over 4.5 cards3.46
Over 5.5 cards6.54
Preston most3.11
Blackburn most2.17

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.64
Over 7.5 SoT2.10
Over 8.5 SoT2.85
Over 9.5 SoT4.09
Preston most2.17
Blackburn most2.49

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.60
Over 24.5 shots1.99
Over 26.5 shots2.63
Over 28.5 shots3.69
Preston most1.69
Blackburn most2.87

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.89
Over 22.5 fouls2.69
Over 24.5 fouls4.22
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 61.1% Over 7.5 47.6% Over 8.5 35.1% Over 9.5 24.4%
Most: Preston 46.1% Most: Blackburn 40.2%
Preston Over 4.2 35.1% Blackburn Over 4.2 31.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 69.3% Over 3.5 48.0% Over 4.5 28.9%
Most: Preston 32.2% Most: Blackburn 46.1%
Preston Over 1.8 48.1% Blackburn Over 1.8 58.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Preston clean sheet 33.7%
Blackburn clean sheet 31.6%
Preston win to nil 22.3%
Blackburn win to nil 20.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 36.5% draw 30.2% away 33.3%
double_chance
1X 66.7% 12 69.9% X2 63.5%
dnb
home 52.3% away 47.7%
btts
yes 46.0% no 54.0%
clean_sheet
home 33.7% away 31.7%
win_to_nil
home 22.4% away 20.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.1% home_by_2 10.5% home_by_3plus 4.9%
away_by_1 19.9% away_by_2 9.4% away_by_3plus 4.1%
correct_score
0-0 11.3% 0-1 10.9% 0-2 6.3%
0-3 2.3% 0-4 0.6% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 11.6% 1-1 14.0% 1-2 7.2%
1-3 2.6% 1-4 0.7% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.1% 2-1 7.7% 2-2 4.2%
2-3 1.5% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 2.7% 3-1 2.9% 3-2 1.6%
3-3 0.6% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 0.8% 4-1 0.9% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.2%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 14.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 88.7% under_0.5 11.3% over_1.5 66.1%
under_1.5 33.9% over_2.5 38.7% under_2.5 61.3%
over_3.5 18.8% under_3.5 81.2% over_4.5 7.7%
under_4.5 92.3% over_5.5 2.7% under_5.5 97.3%
odd_even
odd 48.1% even 51.9%
team_home
over_0.5 68.4% under_0.5 31.7% over_1.5 31.9%
under_1.5 68.1% over_2.5 11.0% under_2.5 89.0%
team_away
over_0.5 66.3% under_0.5 33.7% over_1.5 29.6%
under_1.5 70.4% over_2.5 9.7% under_2.5 90.3%
most
home 36.5% draw 30.2% away 33.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.9% away_+2.5 95.1% home_-1.5 15.5%
away_+1.5 84.6% home_-0.5 36.5% away_+0.5 63.5%
home_+0.5 66.7% away_-0.5 33.3% home_+1.5 86.5%
away_-1.5 13.5% home_+2.5 95.9% away_-2.5 4.1%
total_exact
exact_0 11.3% exact_1 22.6% exact_2 27.4%
exact_3 19.9% exact_4 11.1% exact_5 5.0%
exact_6 1.9% exact_7plus 0.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 25.7% draw 47.6% away 26.7%
total
over_0.5 61.7% under_0.5 38.3% over_1.5 25.0%
under_1.5 75.0% over_2.5 7.3% under_2.5 92.7%
btts
yes 14.5% no 85.5%
total_exact
exact_0 38.3% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 17.7%
exact_3 5.7% exact_4plus 1.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 31.7% draw 40.4% away 27.9%
total
over_0.5 72.2% under_0.5 27.9% over_1.5 36.6%
under_1.5 63.4% over_2.5 13.8% under_2.5 86.2%
btts
yes 22.3% no 77.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.7% H/D 4.5% H/A 1.5%
D/H 15.1% D/D 19.3% D/A 13.3%
A/H 2.0% A/D 5.1% A/A 19.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.8% under_7.5 20.2% over_8.5 69.7%
under_8.5 30.3% over_9.5 58.4% under_9.5 41.7%
over_10.5 46.7% under_10.5 53.3% over_11.5 35.7%
under_11.5 64.3% over_12.5 26.1% under_12.5 73.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.2% under_3.5 22.8% over_4.5 62.8%
under_4.5 37.2% over_5.5 47.7% under_5.5 52.3%
team_away
over_3.5 67.7% under_3.5 32.3% over_4.5 51.1%
under_4.5 48.9% over_5.5 35.7% under_5.5 64.3%
most
home 52.8% draw 10.4% away 36.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.5% away_+3.5 76.5% home_-1.5 42.2%
away_+1.5 57.8% home_-0.5 52.8% away_+0.5 47.3%
home_+0.5 63.1% away_-0.5 36.9% home_+1.5 72.7%
away_-1.5 27.4% home_+3.5 87.1% away_-3.5 12.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 62.7% under_22.5 37.3% over_24.5 50.1%
under_24.5 49.9% over_26.5 38.0% under_26.5 62.0%
over_28.5 27.1% under_28.5 72.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 71.5% under_10.5 28.5% over_12.5 54.9%
under_12.5 45.1% over_14.5 38.5% under_14.5 61.5%
team_away
over_10.5 55.5% under_10.5 44.5% over_12.5 37.4%
under_12.5 62.6% over_14.5 22.6% under_14.5 77.4%
most
home 59.1% draw 6.1% away 34.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.2% away_+4.5 65.8% home_-2.5 46.5%
away_+2.5 53.5% home_-0.5 59.1% away_+0.5 40.9%
home_+0.5 65.2% away_-0.5 34.8% home_+2.5 76.1%
away_-2.5 23.9% home_+4.5 84.8% away_-4.5 15.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 61.1% under_6.5 38.9% over_7.5 47.7%
under_7.5 52.3% over_8.5 35.1% under_8.5 64.9%
over_9.5 24.4% under_9.5 75.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 52.9% under_3.5 47.1% over_4.5 35.1%
under_4.5 64.9% over_5.5 21.3% under_5.5 78.8%
team_away
over_3.5 48.7% under_3.5 51.3% over_4.5 31.1%
under_4.5 68.9% over_5.5 18.1% under_5.5 82.0%
most
home 46.1% draw 13.7% away 40.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 21.7% away_+2.5 78.3% home_-0.5 46.1%
away_+0.5 53.9% home_+0.5 59.8% away_-0.5 40.2%
home_+2.5 82.5% away_-2.5 17.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 69.3% under_2.5 30.7% over_3.5 48.0%
under_3.5 52.0% over_4.5 28.9% under_4.5 71.1%
over_5.5 15.3% under_5.5 84.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 48.1% under_1.5 51.9% over_2.5 22.1%
under_2.5 77.9%
team_away
over_1.5 58.3% under_1.5 41.7% over_2.5 31.3%
under_2.5 68.7%
most
home 32.2% draw 21.7% away 46.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.6% away_+1.5 84.5% home_-0.5 32.2%
away_+0.5 67.8% home_+0.5 53.9% away_-0.5 46.1%
home_+1.5 74.1% away_-1.5 25.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 52.9% under_20.5 47.1% over_22.5 37.1%
under_22.5 62.9% over_24.5 23.7% under_24.5 76.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 56.1% under_9.5 43.9% over_11.5 33.8%
under_11.5 66.3% over_13.5 17.0% under_13.5 83.0%
team_away
over_9.5 62.5% under_9.5 37.5% over_11.5 40.2%
under_11.5 59.8% over_13.5 21.8% under_13.5 78.2%
most
home 41.3% draw 8.1% away 50.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.2% away_+3.5 79.8% home_-0.5 41.3%
away_+0.5 58.7% home_+2.5 65.3% away_-2.5 34.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 7.4% no 92.6%
home
yes 5.5% no 94.5%
away
yes 2.0% no 98.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Preston predictions · Blackburn predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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ChampionshipPrestonBlackburnTrack record