Groningen vs Twente prediction & probabilities (2026-09-06)

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Groningen vs Twente: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
Groningen

WWWLL

Full time2-2Sun, 6 Sep 202611:15UK
Twente

WLLWW

Model’s top convictions

81%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Draw or Twente

66%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Groningen 2-2 Twente
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Twente at 44.1%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 58.9% and it landed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 81.4% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 63.5% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 61.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 73.8% and it landed. We called Yes at 81.0% and it missed. We called Over 9.5 at 59.4% and it landed (10 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 68.7% and it landed (2 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 62.7% and it landed (37 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 73.0% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 90.3% and it landed.

Match data Groningen Twente
Goals, 1st half 2 2
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 21 16
Shots on target 4 5
Corners 8 2
Yellow cards 1 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 6 9

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
TwenteWin probability
44.1%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals81.4%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Draw or Twente69.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.45
Over 8.5 corners66.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.51

Model read

▾

Our engine prices Twente at 44% for 6 September 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. Bookmakers see it the same way, 47% on Twente, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. No strong lean on goals (59% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Groningen, 3 draws and 2 for Twente at 2.2 goals per match. Recent form reads W4 D0 L2 for Groningen against W3 D1 L2 for Twente. Discipline says sit it out: value_gap +0.025 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners46.6%@ 2.15
Twente win44.1%@ 2.27
Over 11.5 corners37.5%@ 2.67
Medium risk

Both teams to score61.3%@ 1.63
Over 2.5 goals58.9%@ 1.70
Over 9.5 corners56.3%@ 1.78
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.4%@ 8.74
1-2 correct score9.1%@ 10.95
2-1 correct score7.5%@ 13.33

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Groningen

31.1%+2.5%

Draw

24.9%+0.3%

Twente

44.1%-2.7%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.025 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.4%

High probability

Over 2.558.9%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes61.3%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.566.1%

Strong chance

Over 9.556.3%

Good chance

Over 10.546.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.537.5%

Toss-up

Most cornersGroningen51.0%Twente39.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.573.0%

Strong chance

Over 24.562.7%

Strong chance

Over 26.551.8%

Good chance

Over 28.540.9%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.4%2.558.9%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.581.4%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

GroningenWWWLL
TwenteWLLWW

Last 5 meetings: Groningen 0 · 3 draws · Twente 2 · 2.2 goals/game.

2026-02-22Twente 2-1 Groningen
2025-11-02Groningen 1-1 Twente
2025-03-01Groningen 1-1 Twente
2024-12-15Twente 2-0 Groningen
2023-02-05Groningen 1-1 Twente

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

GroningenTwente
League position#10 of 18#9 of 18
Record W-D-L2-0-22-0-1
Current streakL2W2
Record, home vs away1-0-11-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 4.03 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 82% · BTTS in 76%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Groningen win3.303.22
Draw3.804.02
Twente win2.052.27
Over 2.5 goals1.531.70
Under 2.5 goals2.402.43

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Groningen win3.22
Draw4.02
Twente win2.27
Both teams to score1.63

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.23
Over 2.5 goals1.70
Over 3.5 goals2.74
Groningen most3.22
Twente most2.27

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.24
Over 8.5 corners1.42
Over 9.5 corners1.68
Over 10.5 corners2.09
Groningen most1.95
Twente most2.56

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.88
Over 3.5 cards3.19
Over 4.5 cards6.33
Over 5.5 cards14.41
Groningen most2.72
Twente most2.62

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.22
Over 7.5 SoT1.37
Over 8.5 SoT1.60
Over 9.5 SoT1.94
Groningen most2.27
Twente most2.24

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.37
Over 24.5 shots1.59
Over 26.5 shots1.93
Over 28.5 shots2.44
Groningen most1.86
Twente most2.46

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.24
Over 22.5 fouls3.34
Over 24.5 fouls5.47
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 82.2% Over 7.5 73.0% Over 8.5 62.5% Over 9.5 51.4%
Most: Groningen 44.1% Most: Twente 44.6%
Groningen Over 4.2 52.4% Twente Over 4.2 52.8%

Cards

Over 2.5 53.3% Over 3.5 31.3% Over 4.5 15.8%
Most: Groningen 36.8% Most: Twente 38.2%
Groningen Over 1.8 40.5% Twente Over 1.8 41.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Groningen clean sheet 18.7%
Twente clean sheet 25.0%
Groningen win to nil 13.4%
Twente win to nil 19.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 31.1% draw 24.9% away 44.1%
double_chance
1X 55.9% 12 75.1% X2 68.9%
dnb
home 41.4% away 58.6%
btts
yes 61.3% no 38.7%
clean_sheet
home 18.7% away 25.2%
win_to_nil
home 13.5% away 20.0%
winning_margin
home_by_1 17.0% home_by_2 9.1% home_by_3plus 5.0%
away_by_1 20.8% away_by_2 13.5% away_by_3plus 9.8%
correct_score
0-0 5.3% 0-1 7.4% 0-2 6.6%
0-3 3.7% 0-4 1.6% 0-5 0.5%
1-0 6.0% 1-1 11.4% 1-2 9.1%
1-3 5.1% 1-4 2.1% 1-5 0.7%
2-0 4.5% 2-1 7.5% 2-2 6.3%
2-3 3.5% 2-4 1.5% 2-5 0.5%
3-0 2.1% 3-1 3.5% 3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.6% 3-4 0.7% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.7% 4-1 1.2% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.6% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.7% under_0.5 5.3% over_1.5 81.4%
under_1.5 18.6% over_2.5 58.9% under_2.5 41.1%
over_3.5 36.5% under_3.5 63.5% over_4.5 19.4%
under_4.5 80.6% over_5.5 9.0% under_5.5 91.1%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 74.8% under_0.5 25.2% over_1.5 40.0%
under_1.5 60.0% over_2.5 16.1% under_2.5 83.9%
team_away
over_0.5 81.3% under_0.5 18.7% over_1.5 49.9%
under_1.5 50.1% over_2.5 23.7% under_2.5 76.3%
most
home 31.1% draw 24.9% away 44.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 5.0% away_+2.5 95.0% home_-1.5 14.1%
away_+1.5 85.9% home_-0.5 31.1% away_+0.5 68.9%
home_+0.5 55.9% away_-0.5 44.1% home_+1.5 76.7%
away_-1.5 23.3% home_+2.5 90.2% away_-2.5 9.8%
total_exact
exact_0 5.3% exact_1 13.3% exact_2 22.5%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.1% exact_5 10.4%
exact_6 5.3% exact_7plus 3.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.5% draw 39.3% away 32.2%
total
over_0.5 73.8% under_0.5 26.2% over_1.5 38.8%
under_1.5 61.2% over_2.5 15.2% under_2.5 84.8%
btts
yes 23.8% no 76.2%
total_exact
exact_0 26.2% exact_1 35.1% exact_2 23.5%
exact_3 10.5% exact_4plus 4.7%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.5% draw 34.2% away 39.4%
total
over_0.5 81.0% under_0.5 19.0% over_1.5 49.5%
under_1.5 50.5% over_2.5 23.3% under_2.5 76.7%
btts
yes 31.3% no 68.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.4% H/D 5.8% H/A 3.3%
D/H 10.4% D/D 13.4% D/A 15.5%
A/H 1.9% A/D 4.7% A/A 25.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 80.4% under_7.5 19.6% over_8.5 70.5%
under_8.5 29.5% over_9.5 59.4% under_9.5 40.6%
over_10.5 47.9% under_10.5 52.1% over_11.5 36.9%
under_11.5 63.1% over_12.5 27.3% under_12.5 72.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.7% under_3.5 24.3% over_4.5 61.6%
under_4.5 38.4% over_5.5 47.1% under_5.5 52.9%
team_away
over_3.5 68.2% under_3.5 31.8% over_4.5 52.5%
under_4.5 47.5% over_5.5 37.7% under_5.5 62.3%
most
home 51.2% draw 9.7% away 39.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.0% away_+3.5 76.0% home_-1.5 41.4%
away_+1.5 58.6% home_-0.5 51.2% away_+0.5 48.8%
home_+0.5 60.9% away_-0.5 39.1% home_+1.5 70.0%
away_-1.5 30.0% home_+3.5 84.5% away_-3.5 15.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.0% under_22.5 27.0% over_24.5 62.7%
under_24.5 37.3% over_26.5 51.8% under_26.5 48.2%
over_28.5 40.9% under_28.5 59.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.3% under_10.5 25.7% over_12.5 60.0%
under_12.5 40.0% over_14.5 45.2% under_14.5 54.8%
team_away
over_10.5 66.5% under_10.5 33.5% over_12.5 50.8%
under_12.5 49.2% over_14.5 35.9% under_14.5 64.1%
most
home 53.8% draw 5.5% away 40.7%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.0% away_+4.5 68.0% home_-2.5 42.6%
away_+2.5 57.4% home_-0.5 53.8% away_+0.5 46.2%
home_+0.5 59.3% away_-0.5 40.7% home_+2.5 69.7%
away_-2.5 30.3% home_+4.5 78.7% away_-4.5 21.3%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 82.2% under_6.5 17.8% over_7.5 73.0%
under_7.5 27.0% over_8.5 62.5% under_8.5 37.5%
over_9.5 51.4% under_9.5 48.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 68.4% under_3.5 31.6% over_4.5 52.4%
under_4.5 47.6% over_5.5 37.5% under_5.5 62.5%
team_away
over_3.5 68.7% under_3.5 31.3% over_4.5 52.8%
under_4.5 47.2% over_5.5 37.9% under_5.5 62.1%
most
home 44.1% draw 11.3% away 44.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 23.9% away_+2.5 76.1% home_-0.5 44.1%
away_+0.5 55.9% home_+0.5 55.4% away_-0.5 44.6%
home_+2.5 75.7% away_-2.5 24.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 53.3% under_2.5 46.7% over_3.5 31.3%
under_3.5 68.7% over_4.5 15.8% under_4.5 84.2%
over_5.5 6.9% under_5.5 93.1%
odd_even
odd 49.8% even 50.2%
team_home
over_1.5 40.5% under_1.5 59.5% over_2.5 16.7%
under_2.5 83.3%
team_away
over_1.5 41.5% under_1.5 58.5% over_2.5 17.5%
under_2.5 82.6%
most
home 36.8% draw 25.0% away 38.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.1% away_+1.5 82.9% home_-0.5 36.8%
away_+0.5 63.2% home_+0.5 61.8% away_-0.5 38.2%
home_+1.5 81.9% away_-1.5 18.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 44.6% under_20.5 55.4% over_22.5 29.9%
under_22.5 70.1% over_24.5 18.3% under_24.5 81.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 47.5% under_9.5 52.5% over_11.5 26.6%
under_11.5 73.5% over_13.5 12.5% under_13.5 87.5%
team_away
over_9.5 58.9% under_9.5 41.1% over_11.5 37.1%
under_11.5 62.9% over_13.5 20.0% under_13.5 80.1%
most
home 38.0% draw 8.0% away 54.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 17.9% away_+3.5 82.1% home_-0.5 38.0%
away_+0.5 62.0% home_+2.5 62.1% away_-2.5 37.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 9.7% no 90.3%
home
yes 4.8% no 95.3%
away
yes 5.2% no 94.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Groningen predictions · Twente predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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EredivisieGroningenTwenteTrack record