Willem II vs Excelsior prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Willem II vs Excelsior: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
Willem II

LDLLD

Full time0-3Sat, 5 Sep 202620:00UK
Excelsior

DWWLW

Model’s top convictions

82%

Over 1.5 goals

70%

Draw or Excelsior

65%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time10 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Willem II 0-3 Excelsior
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
11 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Excelsior at 45.6%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 59.1% and it landed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 81.6% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 63.3% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 61.2% and it missed. We called Yes at 69.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 86.6% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 58.5% and it landed (13 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 73.5% and it landed (3 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 62.6% and it landed (29 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 75.2% and it landed (8 shots on target). We called No at 91.8% and it landed.

Match data Willem II Excelsior
Goals, 1st half 0 2
Goals, 2nd half 0 1
Shots 16 13
Shots on target 2 6
Corners 7 6
Yellow cards 2 1
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 10 14

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
ExcelsiorWin probability
45.6%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals81.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.23
Draw or Excelsior70.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.42
Over 8.5 corners65.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.53

Model read

▾

A measured edge to Excelsior: 46% is the model's line for this Eredivisie meeting on 5 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on Excelsior than the market (42%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • No strong lean on goals (59% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. • As a promoted side, Willem II carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. • Recent form reads W0 D2 L4 for Willem II against W4 D1 L1 for Excelsior. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Willem II, 2 draws and 2 for Excelsior, averaging 2.8 goals a game. Discipline says sit it out: trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners45.8%@ 2.18
Excelsior win45.6%@ 2.19
Over 11.5 corners36.8%@ 2.72
Medium risk

Both teams to score61.2%@ 1.63
Over 2.5 goals59.1%@ 1.69
Over 9.5 corners55.6%@ 1.80
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.4%@ 8.81
1-2 correct score9.3%@ 10.80
0-1 correct score7.5%@ 13.39

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Willem II

29.7%-1.9%

Draw

24.7%-2.2%

Excelsior

45.6%+4.0%

ModelMarket

trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.5%

High probability

Over 2.559.1%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes61.2%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.565.4%

Strong chance

Over 9.555.6%

Good chance

Over 10.545.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.536.8%

Toss-up

Most cornersWillem II52.8%Excelsior37.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.572.9%

Strong chance

Over 24.562.6%

Strong chance

Over 26.551.7%

Good chance

Over 28.540.8%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.5%2.559.1%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.581.5%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

Willem IILDLLD
ExcelsiorDWWLW

Last 5 meetings: Willem II 1 · 2 draws · Excelsior 2 · 2.8 goals/game.

2019-04-21Excelsior 1-1 Willem II
2018-09-15Willem II 2-2 Excelsior
2018-04-06Excelsior 2-1 Willem II
2017-08-13Willem II 1-2 Excelsior
2017-02-25Excelsior 0-2 Willem II

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Willem IIExcelsior
League position#15 of 18#8 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-22-0-1
Current streakD1W1
Record, home vs away0-1-11-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 4.03 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 82% · BTTS in 76%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Willem II win3.003.37
Draw3.504.05
Excelsior win2.302.19
Over 2.5 goals1.621.69
Under 2.5 goals2.252.44

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Willem II win3.36
Draw4.05
Excelsior win2.19
Both teams to score1.63

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06
Over 1.5 goals1.23
Over 2.5 goals1.69
Over 3.5 goals2.73
Willem II most3.36
Excelsior most2.19

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.25
Over 8.5 corners1.43
Over 9.5 corners1.71
Over 10.5 corners2.13
Willem II most1.89
Excelsior most2.68

Cards

Over 2.5 cards2.08
Over 3.5 cards3.77
Over 4.5 cards8.01
Willem II most3.10
Excelsior most2.40

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.19
Over 7.5 SoT1.33
Over 8.5 SoT1.54
Over 9.5 SoT1.84
Willem II most2.16
Excelsior most2.35

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.37
Over 24.5 shots1.60
Over 26.5 shots1.94
Over 28.5 shots2.45
Willem II most1.85
Excelsior most2.47

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.22
Over 22.5 fouls3.31
Over 24.5 fouls5.39
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 83.9% Over 7.5 75.2% Over 8.5 65.1% Over 9.5 54.3%
Most: Willem II 46.4% Most: Excelsior 42.6%
Willem II Over 4.2 56.0% Excelsior Over 4.2 53.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 48.0% Over 3.5 26.5% Over 4.5 12.5%
Most: Willem II 32.3% Most: Excelsior 41.6%
Willem II Over 1.8 33.6% Excelsior Over 1.8 40.7%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Willem II clean sheet 18.0%
Excelsior clean sheet 25.7%
Willem II win to nil 12.7%
Excelsior win to nil 20.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 29.7% draw 24.7% away 45.6%
double_chance
1X 54.4% 12 75.3% X2 70.3%
dnb
home 39.5% away 60.5%
btts
yes 61.3% no 38.8%
clean_sheet
home 18.0% away 26.0%
win_to_nil
home 12.8% away 20.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 16.5% home_by_2 8.6% home_by_3plus 4.6%
away_by_1 21.1% away_by_2 14.0% away_by_3plus 10.5%
correct_score
0-0 5.2% 0-1 7.5% 0-2 6.9%
0-3 3.9% 0-4 1.7% 0-5 0.6%
1-0 5.8% 1-1 11.4% 1-2 9.3%
1-3 5.3% 1-4 2.3% 1-5 0.8%
2-0 4.3% 2-1 7.3% 2-2 6.3%
2-3 3.6% 2-4 1.5% 2-5 0.5%
3-0 1.9% 3-1 3.3% 3-2 2.8%
3-3 1.6% 3-4 0.7% 3-5 0.2%
4-0 0.6% 4-1 1.1% 4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.2% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.8% under_0.5 5.2% over_1.5 81.6%
under_1.5 18.5% over_2.5 59.1% under_2.5 40.9%
over_3.5 36.7% under_3.5 63.3% over_4.5 19.5%
under_4.5 80.5% over_5.5 9.0% under_5.5 91.0%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 74.0% under_0.5 26.0% over_1.5 39.0%
under_1.5 61.0% over_2.5 15.4% under_2.5 84.6%
team_away
over_0.5 82.0% under_0.5 18.0% over_1.5 51.1%
under_1.5 48.9% over_2.5 24.7% under_2.5 75.4%
most
home 29.7% draw 24.7% away 45.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.6% away_+2.5 95.4% home_-1.5 13.3%
away_+1.5 86.7% home_-0.5 29.7% away_+0.5 70.3%
home_+0.5 54.4% away_-0.5 45.6% home_+1.5 75.5%
away_-1.5 24.5% home_+2.5 89.5% away_-2.5 10.5%
total_exact
exact_0 5.2% exact_1 13.2% exact_2 22.5%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.1% exact_5 10.5%
exact_6 5.4% exact_7plus 3.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 25.0% draw 42.0% away 33.0%
total
over_0.5 69.6% under_0.5 30.4% over_1.5 33.4%
under_1.5 66.6% over_2.5 11.9% under_2.5 88.1%
btts
yes 19.9% no 80.1%
total_exact
exact_0 30.4% exact_1 36.2% exact_2 21.6%
exact_3 8.6% exact_4plus 3.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.4% draw 30.4% away 41.2%
total
over_0.5 86.6% under_0.5 13.4% over_1.5 59.7%
under_1.5 40.3% over_2.5 32.6% under_2.5 67.4%
btts
yes 39.6% no 60.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 16.2% H/D 5.2% H/A 3.6%
D/H 11.9% D/D 12.8% D/A 17.3%
A/H 2.5% A/D 5.0% A/A 25.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.8% under_7.5 20.2% over_8.5 69.8%
under_8.5 30.2% over_9.5 58.5% under_9.5 41.5%
over_10.5 46.9% under_10.5 53.1% over_11.5 36.0%
under_11.5 64.0% over_12.5 26.5% under_12.5 73.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 76.3% under_3.5 23.7% over_4.5 62.3%
under_4.5 37.7% over_5.5 47.9% under_5.5 52.2%
team_away
over_3.5 66.5% under_3.5 33.5% over_4.5 50.5%
under_4.5 49.5% over_5.5 35.7% under_5.5 64.3%
most
home 53.0% draw 9.7% away 37.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 25.3% away_+3.5 74.7% home_-1.5 43.1%
away_+1.5 56.9% home_-0.5 53.0% away_+0.5 47.0%
home_+0.5 62.7% away_-0.5 37.3% home_+1.5 71.6%
away_-1.5 28.4% home_+3.5 85.7% away_-3.5 14.3%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 72.9% under_22.5 27.1% over_24.5 62.6%
under_24.5 37.4% over_26.5 51.7% under_26.5 48.3%
over_28.5 40.8% under_28.5 59.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.4% under_10.5 25.6% over_12.5 60.1%
under_12.5 39.9% over_14.5 45.3% under_14.5 54.7%
team_away
over_10.5 66.2% under_10.5 33.8% over_12.5 50.4%
under_12.5 49.6% over_14.5 35.6% under_14.5 64.4%
most
home 54.1% draw 5.5% away 40.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.3% away_+4.5 67.7% home_-2.5 42.9%
away_+2.5 57.1% home_-0.5 54.1% away_+0.5 45.9%
home_+0.5 59.6% away_-0.5 40.4% home_+2.5 69.9%
away_-2.5 30.1% home_+4.5 78.9% away_-4.5 21.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 83.9% under_6.5 16.1% over_7.5 75.2%
under_7.5 24.8% over_8.5 65.1% under_8.5 34.9%
over_9.5 54.3% under_9.5 45.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.3% under_3.5 28.7% over_4.5 56.0%
under_4.5 44.0% over_5.5 41.1% under_5.5 59.0%
team_away
over_3.5 69.1% under_3.5 30.9% over_4.5 53.3%
under_4.5 46.7% over_5.5 38.4% under_5.5 61.6%
most
home 46.4% draw 11.0% away 42.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 26.0% away_+2.5 74.0% home_-0.5 46.4%
away_+0.5 53.6% home_+0.5 57.4% away_-0.5 42.6%
home_+2.5 77.0% away_-2.5 23.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 48.0% under_2.5 52.0% over_3.5 26.5%
under_3.5 73.5% over_4.5 12.5% under_4.5 87.5%
over_5.5 5.1% under_5.5 94.9%
odd_even
odd 49.7% even 50.3%
team_home
over_1.5 33.6% under_1.5 66.4% over_2.5 12.2%
under_2.5 87.8%
team_away
over_1.5 40.7% under_1.5 59.3% over_2.5 16.9%
under_2.5 83.1%
most
home 32.3% draw 26.1% away 41.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 13.6% away_+1.5 86.4% home_-0.5 32.3%
away_+0.5 67.7% home_+0.5 58.4% away_-0.5 41.6%
home_+1.5 80.2% away_-1.5 19.8%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 45.0% under_20.5 55.0% over_22.5 30.2%
under_22.5 69.8% over_24.5 18.5% under_24.5 81.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 43.4% under_9.5 56.6% over_11.5 23.1%
under_11.5 76.9% over_13.5 10.3% under_13.5 89.7%
team_away
over_9.5 62.9% under_9.5 37.1% over_11.5 41.3%
under_11.5 58.7% over_13.5 23.2% under_13.5 76.8%
most
home 32.5% draw 7.7% away 59.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 14.3% away_+3.5 85.7% home_-0.5 32.5%
away_+0.5 67.5% home_+2.5 56.3% away_-2.5 43.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 8.2% no 91.8%
home
yes 5.2% no 94.8%
away
yes 3.1% no 96.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Willem II predictions · Excelsior predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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EredivisieWillem IIExcelsiorTrack record