Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Ajax vs PSV Eindhoven: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Eredivisie
Ajax

LDWDW

Full time1-3Sat, 5 Sep 202619:00UK
PSV Eindhoven

WDWWW

Model’s top convictions

88%

Over 1.5 goals

69%

Both teams to score

69%

Over 2.5 goals

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Ajax 1-3 PSV Eindhoven
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was PSV Eindhoven at 44.9%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 69.1% and it landed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 87.5% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 52.3% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 69.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 82.8% and it landed. We called Yes at 84.5% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 57.1% and it missed (2 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 66.0% and it missed (6 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 63.2% and it landed (32 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 77.7% and it landed (11 shots on target). We called No at 87.4% and it landed.

Match data Ajax PSV Eindhoven
Goals, 1st half 1 2
Goals, 2nd half 0 1
Shots 19 13
Shots on target 6 5
Corners 1 1
Yellow cards 2 4
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 6 13

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
PSV EindhovenWin probability
44.9%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals87.5%High probabilityPays @ 1.14
Both teams to score69.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.45
Over 2.5 goals69.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.45

Model read

▾

Ajax versus PSV Eindhoven on 5 September 2026 tilts towards PSV Eindhoven in our numbers (45%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Notably, the model is warmer on PSV Eindhoven than the market (40%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 69% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 69%. Recent form reads W2 D3 L1 for Ajax against W5 D1 L0 for PSV Eindhoven. The recent series reads 2 wins for Ajax, 3 draws and 0 for PSV Eindhoven over 5 games, 3.4 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: outside trust zone (model prob 0.45, zone (0.45, 0.7)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

PSV Eindhoven win44.9%@ 2.23
Over 10.5 corners44.7%@ 2.24
Over 11.5 corners35.6%@ 2.81
Medium risk

Ajax or draw55.1%@ 1.81
Over 9.5 corners54.4%@ 1.84
Random finds

1-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.67
1-2 correct score8.6%@ 11.57
2-1 correct score7.3%@ 13.77

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Ajax

32.4%-2.8%

Draw

22.7%-2.3%

PSV Eindhoven

44.9%+5.1%

ModelMarket

outside trust zone (model prob 0.45, zone (0.45, 0.7))

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.587.5%

High probability

Over 2.569.1%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes69.2%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.564.4%

Strong chance

Over 9.554.4%

Good chance

Over 10.544.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.535.6%

Toss-up

Most cornersAjax46.4%PSV Eindhoven43.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.573.4%

Strong chance

Over 24.563.2%

Strong chance

Over 26.552.3%

Good chance

Over 28.541.4%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.587.5%2.569.1%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 2.569.1%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

AjaxLDWDW
PSV EindhovenWDWWW

Last 5 meetings: Ajax 2 · 3 draws · PSV Eindhoven 0 · 3.4 goals/game.

2026-05-02Ajax 2-2 PSV Eindhoven
2025-09-21PSV Eindhoven 2-2 Ajax
2025-03-30PSV Eindhoven 0-2 Ajax
2024-11-02Ajax 3-2 PSV Eindhoven
2024-02-03Ajax 1-1 PSV Eindhoven

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AjaxPSV Eindhoven
League position#4 of 18#2 of 18
Record W-D-L2-1-03-1-0
Current streakW1W3
Record, home vs away0-1-02-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 4.03 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 82% · BTTS in 76%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Ajax win2.703.09
Draw3.754.41
PSV Eindhoven win2.402.23
Over 2.5 goals1.301.45
Under 2.5 goals3.503.24

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Ajax win3.09
Draw4.41
PSV Eindhoven win2.23
Both teams to score1.45

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.14
Over 2.5 goals1.45
Over 3.5 goals2.10
Over 4.5 goals3.49
Ajax most3.09
PSV Eindhoven most2.23

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.27
Over 8.5 corners1.46
Over 9.5 corners1.75
Over 10.5 corners2.20
Ajax most2.15
PSV Eindhoven most2.30

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.78
Over 3.5 cards2.94
Over 4.5 cards5.64
Over 5.5 cards12.38
Ajax most2.97
PSV Eindhoven most2.38

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.17
Over 7.5 SoT1.29
Over 8.5 SoT1.47
Over 9.5 SoT1.73
Ajax most2.66
PSV Eindhoven most1.93

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.36
Over 24.5 shots1.58
Over 26.5 shots1.91
Over 28.5 shots2.41
Ajax most1.98
PSV Eindhoven most2.28

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.41
Over 22.5 fouls3.67
Over 24.5 fouls6.16
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 85.8% Over 7.5 77.7% Over 8.5 68.1% Over 9.5 57.7%
Most: Ajax 37.6% Most: PSV Eindhoven 51.7%
Ajax Over 4.2 51.9% PSV Eindhoven Over 4.2 61.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 56.1% Over 3.5 34.0% Over 4.5 17.7%
Most: Ajax 33.7% Most: PSV Eindhoven 42.0%
Ajax Over 1.8 39.8% PSV Eindhoven Over 1.8 46.2%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Ajax clean sheet 14.3%
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet 19.4%
Ajax win to nil 11.1%
PSV Eindhoven win to nil 16.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 32.4% draw 22.7% away 44.9%
double_chance
1X 55.1% 12 77.3% X2 67.6%
dnb
home 41.9% away 58.1%
btts
yes 69.2% no 30.8%
clean_sheet
home 14.4% away 19.7%
win_to_nil
home 11.1% away 16.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 16.4% home_by_2 9.6% home_by_3plus 6.4%
away_by_1 19.6% away_by_2 13.6% away_by_3plus 11.7%
correct_score
0-0 3.3% 0-1 5.1% 0-2 5.3%
0-3 3.4% 0-4 1.7% 0-5 0.7%
1-0 4.2% 1-1 9.4% 1-2 8.6%
1-3 5.6% 1-4 2.7% 1-5 1.1%
2-0 3.8% 2-1 7.3% 2-2 7.0%
2-3 4.5% 2-4 2.2% 2-5 0.9%
3-0 2.0% 3-1 3.9% 3-2 3.8%
3-3 2.5% 3-4 1.2% 3-5 0.5%
4-0 0.8% 4-1 1.6% 4-2 1.6%
4-3 1.0% 4-4 0.5% 4-5 0.2%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.2% 5-5 0.1%
other 2.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 9.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 96.7% under_0.5 3.3% over_1.5 87.5%
under_1.5 12.5% over_2.5 69.1% under_2.5 30.9%
over_3.5 47.7% under_3.5 52.3% over_4.5 28.7%
under_4.5 71.3% over_5.5 15.1% under_5.5 84.9%
odd_even
odd 49.1% even 50.9%
team_home
over_0.5 80.3% under_0.5 19.7% over_1.5 48.4%
under_1.5 51.7% over_2.5 22.4% under_2.5 77.6%
team_away
over_0.5 85.6% under_0.5 14.4% over_1.5 57.7%
under_1.5 42.4% over_2.5 30.6% under_2.5 69.4%
most
home 32.4% draw 22.7% away 44.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.4% away_+2.5 93.7% home_-1.5 16.0%
away_+1.5 84.0% home_-0.5 32.4% away_+0.5 67.6%
home_+0.5 55.1% away_-0.5 44.9% home_+1.5 74.7%
away_-1.5 25.3% home_+2.5 88.3% away_-2.5 11.7%
total_exact
exact_0 3.3% exact_1 9.2% exact_2 18.4%
exact_3 21.4% exact_4 19.0% exact_5 13.6%
exact_6 8.1% exact_7plus 7.0%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.3% draw 33.0% away 26.8%
total
over_0.5 82.8% under_0.5 17.2% over_1.5 52.5%
under_1.5 47.5% over_2.5 25.8% under_2.5 74.2%
btts
yes 33.6% no 66.4%
total_exact
exact_0 17.2% exact_1 30.3% exact_2 26.6%
exact_3 15.6% exact_4plus 10.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 22.8% draw 31.1% away 46.2%
total
over_0.5 84.5% under_0.5 15.5% over_1.5 55.7%
under_1.5 44.3% over_2.5 28.7% under_2.5 71.3%
btts
yes 34.9% no 65.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 26.4% H/D 8.1% H/A 5.7%
D/H 7.5% D/D 10.2% D/A 15.2%
A/H 1.3% A/D 3.4% A/A 22.1%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 78.8% under_7.5 21.2% over_8.5 68.6%
under_8.5 31.5% over_9.5 57.1% under_9.5 42.9%
over_10.5 45.5% under_10.5 54.5% over_11.5 34.7%
under_11.5 65.3% over_12.5 25.3% under_12.5 74.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.0% under_3.5 28.1% over_4.5 56.9%
under_4.5 43.1% over_5.5 42.2% under_5.5 57.8%
team_away
over_3.5 70.0% under_3.5 30.0% over_4.5 54.6%
under_4.5 45.4% over_5.5 39.8% under_5.5 60.2%
most
home 46.6% draw 10.0% away 43.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.3% away_+3.5 79.7% home_-1.5 36.9%
away_+1.5 63.1% home_-0.5 46.6% away_+0.5 53.4%
home_+0.5 56.5% away_-0.5 43.5% home_+1.5 66.1%
away_-1.5 33.9% home_+3.5 81.9% away_-3.5 18.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.4% under_22.5 26.6% over_24.5 63.2%
under_24.5 36.8% over_26.5 52.3% under_26.5 47.7%
over_28.5 41.4% under_28.5 58.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.9% under_10.5 27.1% over_12.5 58.2%
under_12.5 41.8% over_14.5 43.3% under_14.5 56.7%
team_away
over_10.5 68.9% under_10.5 31.1% over_12.5 53.5%
under_12.5 46.5% over_14.5 38.6% under_14.5 61.5%
most
home 50.6% draw 5.6% away 43.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 29.3% away_+4.5 70.7% home_-2.5 39.5%
away_+2.5 60.5% home_-0.5 50.6% away_+0.5 49.4%
home_+0.5 56.1% away_-0.5 43.9% home_+2.5 66.8%
away_-2.5 33.2% home_+4.5 76.2% away_-4.5 23.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 85.8% under_6.5 14.2% over_7.5 77.7%
under_7.5 22.3% over_8.5 68.1% under_8.5 31.9%
over_9.5 57.7% under_9.5 42.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.9% under_3.5 32.1% over_4.5 51.9%
under_4.5 48.1% over_5.5 37.0% under_5.5 63.0%
team_away
over_3.5 75.9% under_3.5 24.1% over_4.5 61.7%
under_4.5 38.3% over_5.5 47.2% under_5.5 52.8%
most
home 37.6% draw 10.7% away 51.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 19.6% away_+2.5 80.5% home_-0.5 37.6%
away_+0.5 62.4% home_+0.5 48.3% away_-0.5 51.7%
home_+2.5 69.0% away_-2.5 31.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 56.1% under_2.5 43.9% over_3.5 34.0%
under_3.5 66.0% over_4.5 17.7% under_4.5 82.3%
over_5.5 8.1% under_5.5 91.9%
odd_even
odd 49.8% even 50.2%
team_home
over_1.5 39.8% under_1.5 60.2% over_2.5 16.2%
under_2.5 83.8%
team_away
over_1.5 46.2% under_1.5 53.8% over_2.5 21.0%
under_2.5 79.0%
most
home 33.7% draw 24.3% away 42.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.3% away_+1.5 84.7% home_-0.5 33.7%
away_+0.5 66.3% home_+0.5 58.0% away_-0.5 42.0%
home_+1.5 78.8% away_-1.5 21.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 41.6% under_20.5 58.4% over_22.5 27.2%
under_22.5 72.8% over_24.5 16.2% under_24.5 83.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 41.3% under_9.5 58.7% over_11.5 21.5%
under_11.5 78.5% over_13.5 9.3% under_13.5 90.7%
team_away
over_9.5 60.4% under_9.5 39.6% over_11.5 38.7%
under_11.5 61.4% over_13.5 21.1% under_13.5 78.9%
most
home 32.8% draw 7.8% away 59.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 14.3% away_+3.5 85.7% home_-0.5 32.8%
away_+0.5 67.2% home_+2.5 57.0% away_-2.5 43.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.6% no 87.4%
home
yes 4.1% no 95.9%
away
yes 8.9% no 91.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Ajax predictions · PSV Eindhoven predictions · Eredivisie

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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