Villarreal vs La Coruna: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

La Liga

Villarreal

LWDDL

Full time2-3Sat, 5 Sep 202620:00UK34°C · Cloudy

La Coruna

LLDDW

Model’s top convictions

90%

Villarreal or draw

83%

Over 1.5 goals

61%

Over 2.5 goals

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Villarreal 2-3 La Coruna

✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card

8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Villarreal at 72.9%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 61.4% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 82.9% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 60.9% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 53.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 84.5% and it landed. We called Yes at 71.3% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 51.3% and it missed (8 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 62.7% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 51.3% and it missed (25 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 63.5% and it landed (8 shots on target). We called No at 81.0% and it landed.

Match data	Villarreal	La Coruna
Goals, 1st half	1	1
Goals, 2nd half	1	2
Shots	17	8
Shots on target	5	3
Corners	7	1
Yellow cards	2	2
Red cards	0	0
Fouls	14	14
Expected goals (xG)	3.64	2.44

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

VillarrealWin probability

72.9%

Top 3 convictions

Villarreal or draw90.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.11

Over 1.5 goals82.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.21

Over 2.5 goals61.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.63

Model read

▾

Few La Liga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Villarreal carry a 73% win probability against La Coruna on 5 September 2026. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 61% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. The run in: Villarreal arrive W1 D2 L3, La Coruna W1 D3 L2. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Villarreal, 3 draws and 1 for La Coruna, averaging 2.0 goals a game. As a promoted side, La Coruna carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. One eye on the skies, with 34 degrees of heat in the forecast. For shots markets, Georges Mikautadze is the obvious watch at 1.5 on target per 90 in recent data. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners39.7%@ 2.52

Over 11.5 corners30.4%@ 3.29

Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners60.8%@ 1.64

Both teams to score53.1%@ 1.88

Over 9.5 corners50.0%@ 2.00

Random finds

2-0 correct score11.0%@ 9.12

2-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.33

1-0 correct score9.2%@ 10.91

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Villarreal

72.9%

Draw

17.1%

La Coruna

9.9%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.582.9%

High probability

Over 2.561.4%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes53.1%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.8%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.0%

Good chance

Over 10.539.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersVillarreal56.0%La Coruna33.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.4%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.536.6%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.8%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.582.9%2.561.4%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 2.561.4%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

VillarrealLWDDL

La CorunaLLDDW

Last 5 meetings: Villarreal 1 · 3 draws · La Coruna 1 · 2.0 goals/game.

2018-05-12La Coruna 2-4 Villarreal

2018-01-07Villarreal 1-1 La Coruna

2017-05-14Villarreal 0-0 La Coruna

2017-01-14La Coruna 0-0 Villarreal

2016-05-08Villarreal 0-2 La Coruna

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Villarreal

La Coruna

League position#15 of 20#8 of 20

Record W-D-L0-2-11-2-0

Current streakL1W1

Record, home vs away·0-1-0

Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 2.84 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 52%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Georges MikautadzeVillarreal · key player

To score31.3%

@ 3.19

1+ on target58.7%

@ 1.70

2+ shots57.0%

@ 1.75

Shots/90 3.16SoT/90 1.46Goals/90 0.62

Pierre-Emerick AubameyangLa Coruna · key player

To score32.6%

@ 3.07

1+ on target69.3%

@ 1.44

2+ shots62.5%

@ 1.60

Shots/90 2.69SoT/90 1.5Goals/90 0.5

Ayoze PérezVillarreal · in form

To score33.0%

@ 3.03

1+ on target54.3%

@ 1.84

2+ shots54.3%

@ 1.84

Shots/90 2.86SoT/90 1.23Goals/90 0.63

Adrià AltiLa Coruna · in form

To score0.0%

@ ·

1+ on target7.7%

@ 12.99

2+ shots3.5%

@ 28.57

Shots/90 0.36SoT/90 0.1Goals/90 0

Gerard MorenoVillarreal · in form

To score29.5%

@ 3.39

1+ on target49.2%

@ 2.03

2+ shots47.5%

@ 2.11

Shots/90 2.79SoT/90 1.18Goals/90 0.61

Leo RománLa Coruna · in form

To score0.0%

@ ·

1+ on target0.0%

@ ·

2+ shots0.0%

@ ·

Shots/90 0SoT/90 0Goals/90 0

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Villarreal win1.46

Draw5.29

La Coruna win7.97

Both teams to score1.88

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.21

Over 2.5 goals1.63

Over 3.5 goals2.55

Over 4.5 goals4.66

Villarreal most1.46

La Coruna most7.97

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.34

Over 8.5 corners1.58

Over 9.5 corners1.95

Over 10.5 corners2.53

Villarreal most1.78

La Coruna most2.99

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.25

Over 3.5 cards1.60

Over 4.5 cards2.28

Over 5.5 cards3.62

Villarreal most3.07

La Coruna most2.07

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.33

Over 7.5 SoT1.57

Over 8.5 SoT1.96

Over 9.5 SoT2.58

Villarreal most1.66

La Coruna most3.59

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.63

Over 24.5 shots2.05

Over 26.5 shots2.74

Over 28.5 shots3.87

Villarreal most1.54

La Coruna most3.41

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.32

Over 22.5 fouls1.60

Over 24.5 fouls2.05

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	75.3%	Over 7.5	63.5%	Over 8.5	50.9%	Over 9.5	38.8%
Most: Villarreal	60.3%	Most: La Coruna	27.9%
Villarreal Over 4.2	55.7%	La Coruna Over 4.2	32.0%

Cards

Over 2.5	80.2%	Over 3.5	62.7%	Over 4.5	43.9%
Most: Villarreal	32.6%	Most: La Coruna	48.3%
Villarreal Over 1.8	57.7%	La Coruna Over 1.8	68.2%

Villarreal: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Georges Mikautadze	3.16	1.46	0.62	58.7%	57.0%	31.3%
Ayoze Pérez	2.86	1.23	0.63	54.3%	54.3%	33.0%
Gerard Moreno	2.79	1.18	0.61	49.2%	47.5%	29.5%
Nicolas Pepe	2.29	1.03	0.28	51.6%	47.9%	17.9%
Ilias Akhomach	2.62	0.85	0.07	34.2%	37.0%	3.4%

La Coruna: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang	2.69	1.5	0.5	69.3%	62.5%	32.6%
Adrià Alti	0.36	0.1	0	7.7%	3.5%	0.0%
Leo Román	0	0	0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Villarreal clean sheet	40.1%
La Coruna clean sheet	10.2%
Villarreal win to nil	35.5%
La Coruna win to nil	5.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	68.6%	draw	18.9%	away	12.6%

double_chance

1X	87.5%	12	81.1%	X2	31.5%

dnb

home	84.5%	away	15.5%

btts

yes	53.1%	no	46.9%

clean_sheet

home	41.3%	away	10.2%

win_to_nil

home	36.7%	away	5.5%

winning_margin

home_by_1	22.7%	home_by_2	20.5%	home_by_3plus	25.3%
away_by_1	8.5%	away_by_2	3.1%	away_by_3plus	1.0%

correct_score

0-0	4.6%	0-1	3.3%	0-2	1.6%
0-3	0.5%	0-4	0.1%	0-5	0.0%
1-0	9.2%	1-1	8.9%	1-2	3.7%
1-3	1.1%	1-4	0.2%	1-5	0.0%
2-0	11.0%	2-1	9.7%	2-2	4.3%
2-3	1.3%	2-4	0.3%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	8.4%	3-1	7.4%	3-2	3.3%
3-3	1.0%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.0%
4-0	4.8%	4-1	4.2%	4-2	1.9%
4-3	0.5%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	2.2%	5-1	1.9%	5-2	0.9%
5-3	0.3%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	3.0%

likeliest_score

h	200.0%	a	0.0%	p	11.0%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	95.4%	under_0.5	4.6%	over_1.5	82.9%
under_1.5	17.1%	over_2.5	61.4%	under_2.5	38.6%
over_3.5	39.1%	under_3.5	60.9%	over_4.5	21.5%
under_4.5	78.5%	over_5.5	10.3%	under_5.5	89.7%

odd_even

odd	49.1%	even	50.9%

team_home

over_0.5	89.8%	under_0.5	10.2%	over_1.5	66.6%
under_1.5	33.4%	over_2.5	40.1%	under_2.5	59.9%

team_away

over_0.5	58.7%	under_0.5	41.3%	over_1.5	22.1%
under_1.5	77.9%	over_2.5	6.0%	under_2.5	94.0%

most

home	68.6%	draw	18.9%	away	12.6%

handicap

home_-2.5	25.3%	away_+2.5	74.7%	home_-1.5	45.8%
away_+1.5	54.2%	home_-0.5	68.6%	away_+0.5	31.5%
home_+0.5	87.5%	away_-0.5	12.6%	home_+1.5	96.0%
away_-1.5	4.0%	home_+2.5	99.0%	away_-2.5	1.0%

total_exact

exact_0	4.6%	exact_1	12.5%	exact_2	21.5%
exact_3	22.3%	exact_4	17.7%	exact_5	11.2%
exact_6	5.9%	exact_7plus	4.3%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	45.7%	draw	31.2%	away	23.1%

total

over_0.5	84.5%	under_0.5	15.5%	over_1.5	55.6%
under_1.5	44.4%	over_2.5	28.7%	under_2.5	71.3%

btts

yes	35.0%	no	65.0%

total_exact

exact_0	15.5%	exact_1	28.9%	exact_2	26.9%
exact_3	16.7%	exact_4plus	11.9%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	37.8%	draw	40.4%	away	21.7%

total

over_0.5	71.3%	under_0.5	28.7%	over_1.5	35.5%
under_1.5	64.5%	over_2.5	13.1%	under_2.5	86.9%

btts

yes	20.7%	no	79.3%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	39.4%	H/D	5.0%	H/A	1.3%
D/H	11.8%	D/D	12.6%	D/A	6.8%
A/H	2.1%	A/D	4.8%	A/A	16.2%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	74.8%	under_7.5	25.2%	over_8.5	63.4%
under_8.5	36.6%	over_9.5	51.3%	under_9.5	48.7%
over_10.5	39.5%	under_10.5	60.5%	over_11.5	29.0%
under_11.5	71.0%	over_12.5	20.3%	under_12.5	79.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	75.6%	under_3.5	24.5%	over_4.5	60.7%
under_4.5	39.3%	over_5.5	45.4%	under_5.5	54.6%

team_away

over_3.5	60.8%	under_3.5	39.2%	over_4.5	43.5%
under_4.5	56.5%	over_5.5	28.6%	under_5.5	71.4%

most

home	56.1%	draw	10.5%	away	33.4%

handicap

home_-3.5	25.4%	away_+3.5	74.6%	home_-1.5	45.2%
away_+1.5	54.8%	home_-0.5	56.1%	away_+0.5	43.9%
home_+0.5	66.6%	away_-0.5	33.4%	home_+1.5	75.9%
away_-1.5	24.1%	home_+3.5	89.4%	away_-3.5	10.6%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	61.4%	under_22.5	38.6%	over_24.5	48.7%
under_24.5	51.3%	over_26.5	36.6%	under_26.5	63.4%
over_28.5	25.8%	under_28.5	74.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	74.0%	under_10.5	26.0%	over_12.5	57.9%
under_12.5	42.1%	over_14.5	41.4%	under_14.5	58.6%

team_away

over_10.5	50.1%	under_10.5	49.9%	over_12.5	32.1%
under_12.5	67.9%	over_14.5	18.4%	under_14.5	81.6%

most

home	64.9%	draw	5.8%	away	29.3%

handicap

home_-4.5	39.6%	away_+4.5	60.4%	home_-2.5	52.3%
away_+2.5	47.7%	home_-0.5	64.9%	away_+0.5	35.1%
home_+0.5	70.7%	away_-0.5	29.3%	home_+2.5	80.7%
away_-2.5	19.3%	home_+4.5	88.3%	away_-4.5	11.7%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	75.3%	under_6.5	24.7%	over_7.5	63.5%
under_7.5	36.5%	over_8.5	50.9%	under_8.5	49.1%
over_9.5	38.8%	under_9.5	61.2%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	72.2%	under_3.5	27.9%	over_4.5	55.7%
under_4.5	44.3%	over_5.5	39.6%	under_5.5	60.4%

team_away

over_3.5	50.1%	under_3.5	49.9%	over_4.5	32.0%
under_4.5	68.0%	over_5.5	18.4%	under_5.5	81.6%

most

home	60.3%	draw	11.8%	away	27.9%

handicap

home_-2.5	35.2%	away_+2.5	64.8%	home_-0.5	60.3%
away_+0.5	39.7%	home_+0.5	72.1%	away_-0.5	27.9%
home_+2.5	89.1%	away_-2.5	10.9%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	80.2%	under_2.5	19.8%	over_3.5	62.7%
under_3.5	37.3%	over_4.5	43.9%	under_4.5	56.1%
over_5.5	27.6%	under_5.5	72.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	57.7%	under_1.5	42.3%	over_2.5	31.3%
under_2.5	68.7%

team_away

over_1.5	68.2%	under_1.5	31.8%	over_2.5	42.7%
under_2.5	57.3%

most

home	32.6%	draw	19.1%	away	48.3%

handicap

home_-1.5	17.4%	away_+1.5	82.6%	home_-0.5	32.6%
away_+0.5	67.4%	home_+0.5	51.7%	away_-0.5	48.3%
home_+1.5	70.1%	away_-1.5	30.0%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	75.5%	under_20.5	24.5%	over_22.5	62.7%
under_22.5	37.3%	over_24.5	48.7%	under_24.5	51.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	69.8%	under_9.5	30.3%	over_11.5	49.5%
under_11.5	50.5%	over_13.5	30.7%	under_13.5	69.3%

team_away

over_9.5	78.5%	under_9.5	21.5%	over_11.5	60.6%
under_11.5	39.4%	over_13.5	41.4%	under_13.5	58.6%

most

home	38.7%	draw	6.9%	away	54.4%

handicap

home_-3.5	20.6%	away_+3.5	79.4%	home_-0.5	38.7%
away_+0.5	61.3%	home_+2.5	59.6%	away_-2.5	40.4%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	19.0%	no	81.0%

home

yes	5.4%	no	94.6%

away

yes	14.3%	no	85.7%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Villarreal predictions · La Coruna predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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