Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Premier League
Nottingham Forest

DLDLD

Full time0-0Sat, 5 Sep 202615:00UK20°C · Cloudy
Tottenham

DLWLL

Model’s top convictions

76%

Over 1.5 goals

74%

Nottingham Forest or draw

59%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time4 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Nottingham Forest 0-0 Tottenham
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
4 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Nottingham Forest at 48.2%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 50.9% and it missed (0 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 75.9% and it missed (0 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 71.1% and it landed (0 goals). We called Yes at 54.0% and it missed. We called Yes at 72.4% and it missed. We called Yes at 78.1% and it missed. We called Over 9.5 at 50.4% and it landed (12 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 57.6% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 51.1% and it missed (23 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 56.3% and it missed (2 shots on target). We called No at 94.6% and it landed.

Match data Nottingham Forest Tottenham
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 12 11
Shots, 1st half 7 4
Shots, 2nd half 5 8
Shots on target 2 0
Corners 2 10
Yellow cards 2 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 22 14
Expected goals (xG) 0.83 1.48

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Nottingham ForestWin probability
48.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals75.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.32
Nott'm Forest or draw74.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.35
Over 8.5 corners59.1%Good chancePays @ 1.69

Model read

▾

The model leans Nottingham Forest at 48% when Nottingham Forest host Tottenham in the Premier League on 5 September 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Totals sit close to the fence: 51% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 54%. 2) The run in: Nottingham Forest arrive W1 D3 L2, Tottenham W2 D1 L3. 3) The recent series reads 4 wins for Nottingham Forest, 0 draws and 1 for Tottenham over 5 games, 2.8 goals on average. On the availability front, Nottingham Forest have Morato ruled out, Savona ruled out, Abbott ruled out, Bindon ruled out. Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga drives the home shot volume, 1.2 on target per 90. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners39.1%@ 2.56
Over 11.5 corners30.4%@ 3.29
Medium risk

Both teams to score54.0%@ 1.85
Draw or Tottenham51.8%@ 1.93
Over 2.5 goals50.9%@ 1.96
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.4%@ 8.09
1-0 correct score10.0%@ 9.99
2-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.65

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Nott'm Forest

48.2%

Draw

25.9%

Tottenham

25.9%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.575.9%

Strong chance

Over 2.550.9%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes54.0%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.559.1%

Good chance

Over 9.548.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.539.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersNottingham Forest52.0%Tottenham37.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.562.7%

Strong chance

Over 24.551.1%

Good chance

Over 26.539.7%

Toss-up

Over 28.529.4%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.9%2.550.9%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.575.9%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

Nottingham ForestDLDLD
TottenhamDLWLL

Last 5 meetings: Nottingham Forest 4 · 0 draws · Tottenham 1 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-03-22Tottenham 0-3 Nottingham Forest
2025-12-14Nottingham Forest 3-0 Tottenham
2025-04-21Tottenham 1-2 Nottingham Forest
2024-12-26Nottingham Forest 1-0 Tottenham
2024-04-07Tottenham 3-1 Nottingham Forest

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Nottingham ForestTottenham
League position#15 of 20#20 of 20
Record W-D-L0-1-10-0-2
Current streakD1L2
Record, home vs away0-0-10-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.10 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 55% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Arnaud Kalimuendo MuingaNottingham Forest · key player
To score31.7%

@ 3.15

1+ on target58.0%

@ 1.72

2+ shots53.1%

@ 1.88

Shots/90 2.38SoT/90 1.16Goals/90 0.51
Omar MarmoushTottenham · key player
To score35.9%

@ 2.79

1+ on target67.6%

@ 1.48

2+ shots78.3%

@ 1.28

Shots/90 4.15SoT/90 1.62Goals/90 0.64
Liam DelapNottingham Forest · in form
To score17.0%

@ 5.88

1+ on target46.3%

@ 2.16

2+ shots47.3%

@ 2.11

Shots/90 2.56SoT/90 1Goals/90 0.3
SávioTottenham · in form
To score3.7%

@ 27.03

1+ on target41.7%

@ 2.40

2+ shots42.2%

@ 2.37

Shots/90 2.67SoT/90 1Goals/90 0.07
Chris WoodNottingham Forest · in form
To score34.5%

@ 2.90

1+ on target53.3%

@ 1.88

2+ shots49.3%

@ 2.03

Shots/90 2SoT/90 0.92Goals/90 0.51
Dominic SolankeTottenham · in form
To score23.8%

@ 4.20

1+ on target52.8%

@ 1.89

2+ shots54.3%

@ 1.84

Shots/90 2.28SoT/90 0.94Goals/90 0.34

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Nottingham Forest win2.08
Draw3.85
Tottenham win3.85
Both teams to score1.85

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.32
Over 2.5 goals1.96
Over 3.5 goals3.46
Nottingham Forest most2.08
Tottenham most3.85

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.36
Over 8.5 corners1.61
Over 9.5 corners1.99
Over 10.5 corners2.57
Nottingham Forest most1.92
Tottenham most2.66

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.30
Over 3.5 cards1.74
Over 4.5 cards2.63
Over 5.5 cards4.49
Nottingham Forest most3.66
Tottenham most1.88

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.46
Over 7.5 SoT1.78
Over 8.5 SoT2.27
Over 9.5 SoT3.03
Nottingham Forest most2.07
Tottenham most2.56

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.60
Over 24.5 shots1.96
Over 26.5 shots2.52
Over 28.5 shots3.40
Nottingham Forest most1.64
Tottenham most2.99

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.48
Over 22.5 fouls1.92
Over 24.5 fouls2.73

Team news

Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.

  • MoratoNottingham ForestOut0% to play
  • SavonaNottingham ForestOut0% to play
  • AbbottNottingham ForestOut0% to play
  • BindonNottingham ForestOut0% to play
  • HutchinsonNottingham ForestOut0% to play
  • BakwaNottingham ForestOut0% to play
  • John Victor, Nicolo Savona, Chris Wood, Jair Cunha, Willy BolyNottingham ForestOut
  • VicarioTottenhamOut0% to play
  • RomeroTottenhamOut0% to play
  • SpenceTottenhamOut0% to play
  • PhillipsTottenhamOut0% to play
  • SouzaTottenhamOut0% to play
  • XaviTottenhamOut0% to play
  • MaddisonTottenhamDoubtful75% to play
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 68.5% Over 7.5 56.3% Over 8.5 44.1% Over 9.5 33.0%
Most: Nottingham Forest 48.4% Most: Tottenham 39.1%
Nottingham Forest Over 4.2 42.7% Tottenham Over 4.2 36.1%

Cards

Over 2.5 76.9% Over 3.5 57.6% Over 4.5 38.1%
Most: Nottingham Forest 27.3% Most: Tottenham 53.1%
Nottingham Forest Over 1.8 50.2% Tottenham Over 1.8 68.4%

Nottingham Forest: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga 2.38 1.16 0.51 58.0% 53.1% 31.7%
Liam Delap 2.56 1 0.3 46.3% 47.3% 17.0%
Chris Wood 2 0.92 0.51 53.3% 49.3% 34.5%
Igor Jesus 2.64 0.8 0.21 43.7% 56.6% 14.0%
Morgan Gibbs-White 2.13 0.75 0.33 50.6% 59.5% 26.7%

Tottenham: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Omar Marmoush 4.15 1.62 0.64 67.6% 78.3% 35.9%
Sávio 2.67 1 0.07 41.7% 42.2% 3.7%
Dominic Solanke 2.28 0.94 0.34 52.8% 54.3% 23.8%
James Maddison 1.91 0.76 0.49 27.8% 19.8% 19.0%
Mathys Tel 2.44 0.71 0.2 32.2% 38.6% 10.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Nottingham Forest clean sheet 32.7%
Tottenham clean sheet 20.3%
Nottingham Forest win to nil 25.5%
Tottenham win to nil 13.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 48.1% draw 26.0% away 26.0%
double_chance
1X 74.1% 12 74.0% X2 51.9%
dnb
home 64.9% away 35.1%
btts
yes 54.0% no 46.0%
clean_sheet
home 32.9% away 20.3%
win_to_nil
home 25.7% away 13.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.6% home_by_2 14.8% home_by_3plus 10.7%
away_by_1 15.6% away_by_2 7.2% away_by_3plus 3.1%
correct_score
0-0 7.3% 0-1 6.8% 0-2 4.1%
0-3 1.5% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.0% 1-1 12.4% 1-2 6.6%
1-3 2.4% 1-4 0.7% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.5% 2-1 9.4% 2-2 5.2%
2-3 1.9% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.6% 3-1 5.0% 3-2 2.8%
3-3 1.0% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.8% 4-1 2.0% 4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.6% 5-1 0.7% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.7%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.7% under_0.5 7.3% over_1.5 75.9%
under_1.5 24.1% over_2.5 50.9% under_2.5 49.1%
over_3.5 28.9% under_3.5 71.1% over_4.5 13.9%
under_4.5 86.1% over_5.5 5.8% under_5.5 94.2%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 79.7% under_0.5 20.3% over_1.5 47.4%
under_1.5 52.6% over_2.5 21.7% under_2.5 78.3%
team_away
over_0.5 67.1% under_0.5 32.9% over_1.5 30.5%
under_1.5 69.5% over_2.5 10.2% under_2.5 89.8%
most
home 48.1% draw 26.0% away 26.0%
handicap
home_-2.5 10.7% away_+2.5 89.3% home_-1.5 25.4%
away_+1.5 74.6% home_-0.5 48.1% away_+0.5 51.9%
home_+0.5 74.0% away_-0.5 26.0% home_+1.5 89.7%
away_-1.5 10.3% home_+2.5 96.9% away_-2.5 3.1%
total_exact
exact_0 7.3% exact_1 16.9% exact_2 25.0%
exact_3 22.0% exact_4 15.0% exact_5 8.1%
exact_6 3.7% exact_7plus 2.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 45.5% draw 38.4% away 16.1%
total
over_0.5 72.4% under_0.5 27.6% over_1.5 36.9%
under_1.5 63.1% over_2.5 14.0% under_2.5 86.0%
btts
yes 19.5% no 80.5%
total_exact
exact_0 27.6% exact_1 35.5% exact_2 22.9%
exact_3 9.8% exact_4plus 4.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 38.8% draw 36.0% away 25.1%
total
over_0.5 78.1% under_0.5 21.9% over_1.5 44.9%
under_1.5 55.1% over_2.5 19.6% under_2.5 80.4%
btts
yes 27.7% no 72.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 37.4% H/D 6.0% H/A 2.1%
D/H 14.9% D/D 13.8% D/A 9.6%
A/H 1.9% A/D 3.6% A/A 10.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 73.5% under_7.5 26.5% over_8.5 62.2%
under_8.5 37.8% over_9.5 50.4% under_9.5 49.6%
over_10.5 38.9% under_10.5 61.1% over_11.5 28.7%
under_11.5 71.3% over_12.5 20.3% under_12.5 79.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.8% under_3.5 28.2% over_4.5 56.8%
under_4.5 43.2% over_5.5 42.1% under_5.5 57.9%
team_away
over_3.5 62.1% under_3.5 37.9% over_4.5 45.7%
under_4.5 54.3% over_5.5 31.2% under_5.5 68.8%
most
home 52.2% draw 10.2% away 37.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.5% away_+3.5 76.5% home_-1.5 41.8%
away_+1.5 58.2% home_-0.5 52.2% away_+0.5 47.9%
home_+0.5 62.4% away_-0.5 37.6% home_+1.5 71.8%
away_-1.5 28.2% home_+3.5 86.3% away_-3.5 13.7%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 62.7% under_22.5 37.3% over_24.5 51.1%
under_24.5 48.9% over_26.5 39.7% under_26.5 60.3%
over_28.5 29.4% under_28.5 70.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 71.8% under_10.5 28.2% over_12.5 56.7%
under_12.5 43.3% over_14.5 41.6% under_14.5 58.4%
team_away
over_10.5 53.5% under_10.5 46.5% over_12.5 36.8%
under_12.5 63.2% over_14.5 23.2% under_14.5 76.8%
most
home 61.0% draw 5.6% away 33.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 37.7% away_+4.5 62.3% home_-2.5 49.3%
away_+2.5 50.7% home_-0.5 61.0% away_+0.5 39.0%
home_+0.5 66.5% away_-0.5 33.5% home_+2.5 76.5%
away_-2.5 23.5% home_+4.5 84.6% away_-4.5 15.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 68.5% under_6.5 31.5% over_7.5 56.3%
under_7.5 43.7% over_8.5 44.1% under_8.5 55.9%
over_9.5 33.0% under_9.5 67.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 59.6% under_3.5 40.4% over_4.5 42.7%
under_4.5 57.3% over_5.5 28.3% under_5.5 71.7%
team_away
over_3.5 53.2% under_3.5 46.8% over_4.5 36.1%
under_4.5 63.9% over_5.5 22.5% under_5.5 77.5%
most
home 48.4% draw 12.6% away 39.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 25.2% away_+2.5 74.8% home_-0.5 48.4%
away_+0.5 51.7% home_+0.5 60.9% away_-0.5 39.1%
home_+2.5 81.8% away_-2.5 18.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 76.9% under_2.5 23.1% over_3.5 57.6%
under_3.5 42.4% over_4.5 38.1% under_4.5 61.9%
over_5.5 22.3% under_5.5 77.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 50.1% under_1.5 49.9% over_2.5 23.8%
under_2.5 76.2%
team_away
over_1.5 68.4% under_1.5 31.6% over_2.5 42.1%
under_2.5 57.9%
most
home 27.3% draw 19.6% away 53.1%
handicap
home_-1.5 13.1% away_+1.5 86.9% home_-0.5 27.3%
away_+0.5 72.7% home_+0.5 46.9% away_-0.5 53.1%
home_+1.5 66.9% away_-1.5 33.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 67.8% under_20.5 32.2% over_22.5 52.2%
under_22.5 47.8% over_24.5 36.7% under_24.5 63.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 62.9% under_9.5 37.1% over_11.5 39.9%
under_11.5 60.1% over_13.5 21.0% under_13.5 79.0%
team_away
over_9.5 75.9% under_9.5 24.1% over_11.5 55.1%
under_11.5 44.9% over_13.5 34.0% under_13.5 66.0%
most
home 35.5% draw 7.7% away 56.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 16.5% away_+3.5 83.5% home_-0.5 35.5%
away_+0.5 64.5% home_+2.5 59.2% away_-2.5 40.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 5.4% no 94.6%
home
yes 1.6% no 98.4%
away
yes 3.9% no 96.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Nottingham Forest predictions · Tottenham predictions · Premier League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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