Crewe vs Walsall prediction & probabilities (2026-09-01)

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Crewe vs Walsall: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 1 Sep 2026

League Two
Crewe

LDWWD

Full time2-2Tue, 1 Sep 202619:45UK
Walsall

LLWDW

Model’s top convictions

70%

Over 1.5 goals

68%

Crewe or draw

63%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time6 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Crewe 2-2 Walsall
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
6 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Crewe at 39.3%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 57.1% and it missed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 69.7% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 78.0% and it missed (4 goals). We called No at 50.8% and it missed. We called Yes at 62.6% and it landed. We called Yes at 74.7% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 53.3% and it landed (13 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 51.7% and it missed (2 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 53.7% and it missed (34 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 55.2% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 87.5% and it landed.

Match data Crewe Walsall
Goals, 1st half 0 1
Goals, 2nd half 2 1
Shots 20 14
Shots on target 5 4
Corners 9 4
Yellow cards 0 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 11 14

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
CreweWin probability
39.3%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals69.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.43
Crewe or draw68.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.47
Over 8.5 corners62.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.59

Model read

▾

Little between these two in the data. Crewe at 39% is as close to a call as the model will offer for 1 September 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Crewe higher (42%) than our model does. 2) This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 43% with both teams to score at 49%. 3) The recent series reads 0 wins for Crewe, 1 draws and 4 for Walsall over 5 games, 1.8 goals on average. Recent form reads W2 D2 L2 for Crewe against W3 D1 L2 for Walsall. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.021 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals42.9%@ 2.33
Over 10.5 corners41.7%@ 2.40
Over 11.5 corners32.3%@ 3.10
Medium risk

Draw or Walsall60.7%@ 1.65
Under 2.5 goals57.1%@ 1.75
Over 9.5 corners52.0%@ 1.92
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.7%@ 7.32
1-0 correct score11.0%@ 9.11
0-0 correct score9.8%@ 10.22

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Crewe

39.3%-3.2%

Draw

28.9%+2.1%

Walsall

31.8%+1.1%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.021 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.569.7%

Strong chance

Over 2.542.9%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes49.2%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.7%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.0%

Good chance

Over 10.541.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.532.3%

Toss-up

Most cornersCrewe51.9%Walsall37.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.0%

Good chance

Over 24.546.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.534.3%

Toss-up

Over 28.524.0%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.569.7%2.542.9%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.569.7%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

CreweLDWWD
WalsallLLWDW

Last 5 meetings: Crewe 0 · 1 draws · Walsall 4 · 1.8 goals/game.

2026-03-14Crewe 0-3 Walsall
2025-12-26Walsall 1-0 Crewe
2025-05-03Crewe 0-1 Walsall
2024-11-09Walsall 1-1 Crewe
2023-12-26Walsall 2-0 Crewe

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

CreweWalsall
League position#5 of 24#2 of 24
Record W-D-L2-1-02-1-0
Current streakD1W1
Record, home vs away1-0-01-0-0
Red cards this season10

League averages this season: 2.50 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Crewe win2.202.54
Draw3.403.46
Walsall win3.003.14
Over 2.5 goals1.752.33
Under 2.5 goals2.051.75

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Crewe win2.54
Draw3.46
Walsall win3.14
Both teams to score2.03

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.11
Over 1.5 goals1.44
Over 2.5 goals2.33
Over 3.5 goals4.54
Crewe most2.54
Walsall most3.14

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.54
Over 9.5 corners1.88
Over 10.5 corners2.39
Crewe most1.92
Walsall most2.67

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.38
Over 3.5 cards1.93
Over 4.5 cards3.10
Over 5.5 cards5.63
Crewe most2.99
Walsall most2.21

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.48
Over 7.5 SoT1.81
Over 8.5 SoT2.33
Over 9.5 SoT3.15
Crewe most2.39
Walsall most2.20

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.69
Over 24.5 shots2.16
Over 26.5 shots2.92
Over 28.5 shots4.18
Crewe most1.98
Walsall most2.32

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.38
Over 22.5 fouls1.72
Over 24.5 fouls2.33
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 67.7% Over 7.5 55.2% Over 8.5 42.9% Over 9.5 31.8%
Most: Crewe 41.8% Most: Walsall 45.4%
Crewe Over 4.2 37.3% Walsall Over 4.2 39.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 72.3% Over 3.5 51.7% Over 4.5 32.3%
Most: Crewe 33.5% Most: Walsall 45.3%
Crewe Over 1.8 51.5% Walsall Over 1.8 60.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Crewe clean sheet 32.6%
Walsall clean sheet 27.9%
Crewe win to nil 22.8%
Walsall win to nil 18.2%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 39.3% draw 28.9% away 31.8%
double_chance
1X 68.2% 12 71.1% X2 60.7%
dnb
home 55.3% away 44.7%
btts
yes 49.2% no 50.8%
clean_sheet
home 32.7% away 28.0%
win_to_nil
home 22.9% away 18.2%
winning_margin
home_by_1 21.5% home_by_2 11.6% home_by_3plus 6.2%
away_by_1 18.8% away_by_2 9.0% away_by_3plus 4.0%
correct_score
0-0 9.8% 0-1 9.6% 0-2 5.7%
0-3 2.1% 0-4 0.6% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 11.0% 1-1 13.7% 1-2 7.3%
1-3 2.7% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.4% 2-1 8.3% 2-2 4.6%
2-3 1.7% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.2% 3-1 3.5% 3-2 2.0%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.0% 4-1 1.1% 4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.7%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.2% under_0.5 9.8% over_1.5 69.7%
under_1.5 30.3% over_2.5 42.9% under_2.5 57.1%
over_3.5 22.0% under_3.5 78.0% over_4.5 9.5%
under_4.5 90.5% over_5.5 3.5% under_5.5 96.5%
odd_even
odd 48.3% even 51.7%
team_home
over_0.5 72.0% under_0.5 28.0% over_1.5 36.4%
under_1.5 63.6% over_2.5 13.7% under_2.5 86.3%
team_away
over_0.5 67.4% under_0.5 32.7% over_1.5 30.8%
under_1.5 69.2% over_2.5 10.4% under_2.5 89.6%
most
home 39.3% draw 28.9% away 31.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.2% away_+2.5 93.8% home_-1.5 17.8%
away_+1.5 82.2% home_-0.5 39.3% away_+0.5 60.7%
home_+0.5 68.2% away_-0.5 31.8% home_+1.5 87.0%
away_-1.5 13.0% home_+2.5 96.0% away_-2.5 4.0%
total_exact
exact_0 9.8% exact_1 20.5% exact_2 26.8%
exact_3 20.9% exact_4 12.5% exact_5 6.0%
exact_6 2.4% exact_7plus 1.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.7% draw 47.0% away 25.4%
total
over_0.5 62.6% under_0.5 37.4% over_1.5 25.9%
under_1.5 74.1% over_2.5 7.8% under_2.5 92.3%
btts
yes 15.1% no 84.9%
total_exact
exact_0 37.4% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.1%
exact_3 5.9% exact_4plus 1.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 36.3% draw 38.5% away 25.2%
total
over_0.5 74.7% under_0.5 25.3% over_1.5 39.9%
under_1.5 60.1% over_2.5 16.0% under_2.5 84.0%
btts
yes 24.3% no 75.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 21.9% H/D 4.3% H/A 1.4%
D/H 17.0% D/D 18.1% D/A 11.9%
A/H 2.5% A/D 5.4% A/A 17.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.8% under_7.5 24.3% over_8.5 65.0%
under_8.5 35.1% over_9.5 53.3% under_9.5 46.7%
over_10.5 41.9% under_10.5 58.2% over_11.5 31.4%
under_11.5 68.6% over_12.5 22.6% under_12.5 77.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.0% under_3.5 26.0% over_4.5 59.0%
under_4.5 41.0% over_5.5 43.9% under_5.5 56.1%
team_away
over_3.5 64.8% under_3.5 35.2% over_4.5 48.1%
under_4.5 51.9% over_5.5 33.1% under_5.5 66.9%
most
home 52.0% draw 10.6% away 37.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.6% away_+3.5 77.4% home_-1.5 41.3%
away_+1.5 58.7% home_-0.5 52.0% away_+0.5 48.0%
home_+0.5 62.6% away_-0.5 37.4% home_+1.5 72.3%
away_-1.5 27.7% home_+3.5 87.0% away_-3.5 13.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.0% under_22.5 41.0% over_24.5 46.3%
under_24.5 53.7% over_26.5 34.3% under_26.5 65.7%
over_28.5 24.0% under_28.5 76.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 64.0% under_10.5 36.0% over_12.5 46.2%
under_12.5 53.8% over_14.5 30.2% under_14.5 69.8%
team_away
over_10.5 59.1% under_10.5 40.9% over_12.5 40.9%
under_12.5 59.1% over_14.5 25.6% under_14.5 74.4%
most
home 50.5% draw 6.5% away 43.1%
handicap
home_-4.5 26.2% away_+4.5 73.8% home_-2.5 37.7%
away_+2.5 62.3% home_-0.5 50.5% away_+0.5 49.5%
home_+0.5 56.9% away_-0.5 43.1% home_+2.5 69.1%
away_-2.5 30.9% home_+4.5 79.5% away_-4.5 20.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 67.7% under_6.5 32.3% over_7.5 55.2%
under_7.5 44.8% over_8.5 42.9% under_8.5 57.1%
over_9.5 31.8% under_9.5 68.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 54.5% under_3.5 45.5% over_4.5 37.3%
under_4.5 62.7% over_5.5 23.4% under_5.5 76.6%
team_away
over_3.5 57.1% under_3.5 42.9% over_4.5 39.9%
under_4.5 60.1% over_5.5 25.7% under_5.5 74.3%
most
home 41.8% draw 12.8% away 45.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 19.9% away_+2.5 80.1% home_-0.5 41.8%
away_+0.5 58.2% home_+0.5 54.6% away_-0.5 45.4%
home_+2.5 77.4% away_-2.5 22.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 72.4% under_2.5 27.7% over_3.5 51.7%
under_3.5 48.3% over_4.5 32.3% under_4.5 67.7%
over_5.5 17.8% under_5.5 82.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 51.5% under_1.5 48.5% over_2.5 25.0%
under_2.5 75.0%
team_away
over_1.5 60.1% under_1.5 39.9% over_2.5 33.0%
under_2.5 67.0%
most
home 33.5% draw 21.2% away 45.3%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.8% away_+1.5 83.2% home_-0.5 33.5%
away_+0.5 66.5% home_+0.5 54.7% away_-0.5 45.3%
home_+1.5 74.3% away_-1.5 25.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 72.6% under_20.5 27.4% over_22.5 58.2%
under_22.5 41.8% over_24.5 43.0% under_24.5 57.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 65.6% under_9.5 34.4% over_11.5 43.3%
under_11.5 56.7% over_13.5 24.1% under_13.5 75.9%
team_away
over_9.5 79.1% under_9.5 20.9% over_11.5 60.0%
under_11.5 40.0% over_13.5 39.4% under_13.5 60.6%
most
home 34.7% draw 7.4% away 58.0%
handicap
home_-3.5 16.5% away_+3.5 83.5% home_-0.5 34.7%
away_+0.5 65.3% home_+2.5 57.4% away_-2.5 42.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.5% no 87.5%
home
yes 5.0% no 95.0%
away
yes 7.9% no 92.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Crewe predictions · Walsall predictions · League Two

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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League TwoCreweWalsallTrack record