Cheltenham vs York prediction & probabilities (2026-09-01)

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Cheltenham vs York: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 1 Sep 2026

League Two
Cheltenham

LLWLD

Full time3-2Tue, 1 Sep 202619:45UK
York

LDWDW

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

74%

Cheltenham or draw

62%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Cheltenham 3-2 York
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Cheltenham at 47.7%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 52.6% and it landed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 77.2% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 69.6% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 55.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 69.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 85.9% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 52.5% and it missed (8 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 53.1% and it landed (1 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 54.6% and it missed (33 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 53.1% and it landed (10 shots on target). We called No at 93.2% and it landed.

Match data Cheltenham York
Goals, 1st half 1 1
Goals, 2nd half 2 1
Shots 13 20
Shots on target 5 5
Corners 4 4
Yellow cards 1 0
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 11 6

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
CheltenhamWin probability
47.7%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals77.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.30
Cheltenham or draw73.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.36
Over 8.5 corners62.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.61

Model read

▾

The model leans Cheltenham at 48% when Cheltenham host York in the League Two on 1 September 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Our number sits above the market's 23% for Cheltenham. The gap itself is information. Totals sit close to the fence: 53% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 56%. Form guide over the last six: Cheltenham W1 D1 L4, York W2 D2 L2. The recent series reads 0 wins for Cheltenham, 0 draws and 2 for York over 2 games, 1.0 goals on average. As a promoted side, York carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Discipline says sit it out: too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners41.0%@ 2.44
Over 11.5 corners31.6%@ 3.16
Medium risk

Both teams to score55.7%@ 1.80
Over 2.5 goals52.6%@ 1.90
Draw or York52.4%@ 1.91
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.2%@ 8.19
1-0 correct score9.5%@ 10.56
2-1 correct score9.5%@ 10.58

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Cheltenham

47.7%+24.3%

Draw

25.8%+0.9%

York

26.6%-25.1%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.23)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.577.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.552.6%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes55.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.0%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.3%

Good chance

Over 10.541.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.6%

Toss-up

Most cornersCheltenham51.7%York37.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.558.2%

Good chance

Over 24.545.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.533.5%

Toss-up

Over 28.523.3%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.577.2%2.552.6%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.577.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

CheltenhamLLWLD
YorkLDWDW

Last 2 meetings: Cheltenham 0 · 0 draws · York 2 · 1.0 goals/game.

2015-04-03York 1-0 Cheltenham
2014-11-01Cheltenham 0-1 York

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

CheltenhamYork
League position#12 of 24#3 of 24
Record W-D-L1-1-12-1-0
Current streakD1W1
Record, home vs away1-0-00-1-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.50 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 50% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Cheltenham win3.802.10
Draw3.603.88
York win1.813.76
Over 2.5 goals1.831.90
Under 2.5 goals2.032.11

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Cheltenham win2.10
Draw3.88
York win3.76
Both teams to score1.80

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.30
Over 2.5 goals1.90
Over 3.5 goals3.28
Cheltenham most2.10
York most3.76

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.56
Over 9.5 corners1.90
Over 10.5 corners2.44
Cheltenham most1.93
York most2.66

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.46
Over 3.5 cards2.13
Over 4.5 cards3.58
Over 5.5 cards6.85
Cheltenham most3.08
York most2.19

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.52
Over 7.5 SoT1.89
Over 8.5 SoT2.46
Over 9.5 SoT3.36
Cheltenham most2.51
York most2.12

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.72
Over 24.5 shots2.20
Over 26.5 shots2.99
Over 28.5 shots4.30
Cheltenham most1.96
York most2.36

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.60
Over 22.5 fouls2.13
Over 24.5 fouls3.12
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 65.7% Over 7.5 53.0% Over 8.5 40.7% Over 9.5 29.7%
Most: Cheltenham 39.8% Most: York 47.2%
Cheltenham Over 4.2 34.4% York Over 4.2 39.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 68.4% Over 3.5 46.9% Over 4.5 28.0%
Most: Cheltenham 32.4% Most: York 45.7%
Cheltenham Over 1.8 47.5% York Over 1.8 57.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Cheltenham clean sheet 31.2%
York clean sheet 19.7%
Cheltenham win to nil 24.4%
York win to nil 12.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 47.7% draw 25.8% away 26.6%
double_chance
1X 73.4% 12 74.2% X2 52.3%
dnb
home 64.2% away 35.8%
btts
yes 55.7% no 44.4%
clean_sheet
home 31.4% away 19.7%
win_to_nil
home 24.6% away 12.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.4% home_by_2 14.6% home_by_3plus 10.6%
away_by_1 15.8% away_by_2 7.4% away_by_3plus 3.4%
correct_score
0-0 6.8% 0-1 6.6% 0-2 4.2%
0-3 1.6% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 9.5% 1-1 12.2% 1-2 6.7%
1-3 2.6% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.2% 2-1 9.5% 2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.1% 2-4 0.6% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.4% 3-1 5.1% 3-2 3.0%
3-3 1.2% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.8% 4-1 2.1% 4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.6% 5-1 0.7% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.8%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.2% under_0.5 6.8% over_1.5 77.2%
under_1.5 22.8% over_2.5 52.6% under_2.5 47.4%
over_3.5 30.5% under_3.5 69.6% over_4.5 15.0%
under_4.5 85.0% over_5.5 6.4% under_5.5 93.6%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 80.3% under_0.5 19.7% over_1.5 48.3%
under_1.5 51.7% over_2.5 22.3% under_2.5 77.7%
team_away
over_0.5 68.6% under_0.5 31.4% over_1.5 32.2%
under_1.5 67.8% over_2.5 11.2% under_2.5 88.8%
most
home 47.7% draw 25.8% away 26.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 10.6% away_+2.5 89.4% home_-1.5 25.3%
away_+1.5 74.8% home_-0.5 47.7% away_+0.5 52.3%
home_+0.5 73.4% away_-0.5 26.6% home_+1.5 89.2%
away_-1.5 10.8% home_+2.5 96.7% away_-2.5 3.4%
total_exact
exact_0 6.8% exact_1 16.1% exact_2 24.5%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.5% exact_5 8.6%
exact_6 4.0% exact_7plus 2.4%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 20.8% draw 41.8% away 37.4%
total
over_0.5 69.2% under_0.5 30.8% over_1.5 32.9%
under_1.5 67.1% over_2.5 11.6% under_2.5 88.4%
btts
yes 18.9% no 81.2%
total_exact
exact_0 30.8% exact_1 36.3% exact_2 21.4%
exact_3 8.4% exact_4plus 3.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.4% draw 31.2% away 36.4%
total
over_0.5 85.9% under_0.5 14.1% over_1.5 58.3%
under_1.5 41.8% over_2.5 31.2% under_2.5 68.8%
btts
yes 38.9% no 61.1%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 14.2% H/D 4.1% H/A 2.5%
D/H 13.5% D/D 13.1% D/A 15.2%
A/H 3.3% A/D 6.2% A/A 27.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.1% under_7.5 24.9% over_8.5 64.2%
under_8.5 35.8% over_9.5 52.5% under_9.5 47.5%
over_10.5 41.1% under_10.5 59.0% over_11.5 30.7%
under_11.5 69.3% over_12.5 21.9% under_12.5 78.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.5% under_3.5 26.5% over_4.5 58.4%
under_4.5 41.7% over_5.5 43.2% under_5.5 56.8%
team_away
over_3.5 64.4% under_3.5 35.6% over_4.5 47.7%
under_4.5 52.3% over_5.5 32.7% under_5.5 67.3%
most
home 51.8% draw 10.6% away 37.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.4% away_+3.5 77.6% home_-1.5 41.1%
away_+1.5 58.9% home_-0.5 51.8% away_+0.5 48.2%
home_+0.5 62.4% away_-0.5 37.6% home_+1.5 72.2%
away_-1.5 27.8% home_+3.5 87.0% away_-3.5 13.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 58.2% under_22.5 41.8% over_24.5 45.4%
under_24.5 54.6% over_26.5 33.5% under_26.5 66.5%
over_28.5 23.3% under_28.5 76.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 63.8% under_10.5 36.2% over_12.5 46.0%
under_12.5 54.0% over_14.5 30.0% under_14.5 70.0%
team_away
over_10.5 58.1% under_10.5 41.9% over_12.5 39.9%
under_12.5 60.1% over_14.5 24.7% under_14.5 75.3%
most
home 51.1% draw 6.5% away 42.5%
handicap
home_-4.5 26.7% away_+4.5 73.3% home_-2.5 38.3%
away_+2.5 61.7% home_-0.5 51.1% away_+0.5 48.9%
home_+0.5 57.5% away_-0.5 42.5% home_+2.5 69.7%
away_-2.5 30.3% home_+4.5 80.0% away_-4.5 20.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 65.7% under_6.5 34.3% over_7.5 53.1%
under_7.5 46.9% over_8.5 40.7% under_8.5 59.3%
over_9.5 29.7% under_9.5 70.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 51.7% under_3.5 48.4% over_4.5 34.4%
under_4.5 65.6% over_5.5 21.1% under_5.5 78.9%
team_away
over_3.5 56.9% under_3.5 43.1% over_4.5 39.6%
under_4.5 60.4% over_5.5 25.5% under_5.5 74.6%
most
home 39.8% draw 13.0% away 47.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 18.3% away_+2.5 81.7% home_-0.5 39.8%
away_+0.5 60.2% home_+0.5 52.8% away_-0.5 47.2%
home_+2.5 76.3% away_-2.5 23.7%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 68.4% under_2.5 31.6% over_3.5 46.9%
under_3.5 53.1% over_4.5 28.0% under_4.5 72.0%
over_5.5 14.6% under_5.5 85.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 47.5% under_1.5 52.5% over_2.5 21.7%
under_2.5 78.3%
team_away
over_1.5 57.4% under_1.5 42.7% over_2.5 30.3%
under_2.5 69.7%
most
home 32.4% draw 21.9% away 45.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 15.6% away_+1.5 84.4% home_-0.5 32.4%
away_+0.5 67.6% home_+0.5 54.3% away_-0.5 45.7%
home_+1.5 74.6% away_-1.5 25.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 62.6% under_20.5 37.4% over_22.5 46.8%
under_22.5 53.2% over_24.5 32.0% under_24.5 68.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 61.1% under_9.5 38.9% over_11.5 38.4%
under_11.5 61.6% over_13.5 20.3% under_13.5 79.8%
team_away
over_9.5 70.7% under_9.5 29.3% over_11.5 49.2%
under_11.5 50.8% over_13.5 29.1% under_13.5 70.9%
most
home 38.6% draw 7.8% away 53.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.7% away_+3.5 81.3% home_-0.5 38.6%
away_+0.5 61.4% home_+2.5 62.1% away_-2.5 37.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 6.8% no 93.2%
home
yes 3.7% no 96.3%
away
yes 3.3% no 96.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Cheltenham predictions · York predictions · League Two

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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