Lincoln vs Blackburn prediction & probabilities (2026-09-01)

By /

Lincoln vs Blackburn: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 1 Sep 2026

Championship
Lincoln

LLW

Full time0-0Tue, 1 Sep 202619:45UK
Blackburn

WLDWL

Model’s top convictions

67%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Draw or Blackburn

66%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time5 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Lincoln 0-0 Blackburn
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
5 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Blackburn at 37.2%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 60.1% and it landed (0 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 67.1% and it missed (0 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 80.3% and it landed (0 goals). We called No at 53.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 65.0% and it missed. We called Yes at 71.8% and it missed. We called Over 9.5 at 57.4% and it landed (12 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 50.5% and it landed (5 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 50.3% and it missed (26 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 52.9% and it missed (3 shots on target). We called No at 94.1% and it missed.

Match data Lincoln Blackburn
Goals, 1st half 0 0
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 18 8
Shots on target 1 2
Corners 5 7
Yellow cards 1 4
Red cards 0 1
Fouls 12 11

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
BlackburnWin probability
37.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals67.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.49
Draw or Blackburn67.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.49
Over 8.5 corners66.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.51

Model read

▾

Expect a tight one: the model splits Lincoln and Blackburn almost evenly, Blackburn marginally on top at 37%. Our number sits above the market's 30% for Blackburn. The gap itself is information. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 40% with both teams to score at 47%. Recent form reads W1 D0 L2 for Lincoln against W2 D2 L2 for Blackburn. Lincoln are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.30)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners45.1%@ 2.22
Over 2.5 goals39.9%@ 2.51
Blackburn win37.2%@ 2.69
Medium risk

Under 2.5 goals60.1%@ 1.66
Over 9.5 corners55.6%@ 1.80
Not both teams to score53.1%@ 1.88
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.9%@ 7.17
0-1 correct score11.4%@ 8.75
0-0 correct score10.9%@ 9.19

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Lincoln

33.0%-9.9%

Draw

29.8%+2.7%

Blackburn

37.2%+7.3%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.30)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.567.1%

Strong chance

Over 2.539.9%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes46.9%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.566.1%

Strong chance

Over 9.555.6%

Good chance

Over 10.545.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.535.4%

Toss-up

Most cornersLincoln57.2%Blackburn32.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.562.3%

Strong chance

Over 24.549.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.537.5%

Toss-up

Over 28.526.7%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.567.1%2.539.9%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.567.1%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

LincolnLLW
BlackburnWLDWL

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

LincolnBlackburn
League position#18 of 24#11 of 24
Record W-D-L1-0-21-1-1
Current streakW1L1
Record, home vs away0-0-10-1-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.03 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 78%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Lincoln win2.203.03
Draw3.403.36
Blackburn win3.102.69
Over 2.5 goals1.932.51
Under 2.5 goals1.931.66

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Lincoln win3.03
Draw3.36
Blackburn win2.69
Both teams to score2.13

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.12
Over 1.5 goals1.49
Over 2.5 goals2.51
Over 3.5 goals5.08
Lincoln most3.03
Blackburn most2.69

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.26
Over 8.5 corners1.45
Over 9.5 corners1.74
Over 10.5 corners2.19
Lincoln most1.74
Blackburn most3.08

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.40
Over 3.5 cards1.98
Over 4.5 cards3.21
Over 5.5 cards5.91
Lincoln most3.40
Blackburn most2.01

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.52
Over 7.5 SoT1.89
Over 8.5 SoT2.49
Over 9.5 SoT3.46
Lincoln most1.91
Blackburn most2.90

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.61
Over 24.5 shots2.01
Over 26.5 shots2.67
Over 28.5 shots3.75
Lincoln most1.57
Blackburn most3.27

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.73
Over 22.5 fouls2.38
Over 24.5 fouls3.59
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 65.9% Over 7.5 52.9% Over 8.5 40.2% Over 9.5 28.9%
Most: Lincoln 52.5% Most: Blackburn 34.5%
Lincoln Over 4.2 43.0% Blackburn Over 4.2 30.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 71.4% Over 3.5 50.5% Over 4.5 31.2%
Most: Lincoln 29.4% Most: Blackburn 49.6%
Lincoln Over 1.8 47.2% Blackburn Over 1.8 62.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Lincoln clean sheet 30.6%
Blackburn clean sheet 33.3%
Lincoln win to nil 19.7%
Blackburn win to nil 22.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 33.0% draw 29.8% away 37.2%
double_chance
1X 62.8% 12 70.2% X2 67.0%
dnb
home 46.9% away 53.1%
btts
yes 46.9% no 53.1%
clean_sheet
home 30.6% away 33.4%
win_to_nil
home 19.7% away 22.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.6% home_by_2 9.3% home_by_3plus 4.1%
away_by_1 21.2% away_by_2 10.8% away_by_3plus 5.3%
correct_score
0-0 10.9% 0-1 11.4% 0-2 7.2%
0-3 2.8% 0-4 0.8% 0-5 0.2%
1-0 10.5% 1-1 13.9% 1-2 7.9%
1-3 3.1% 1-4 0.9% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 6.2% 2-1 7.3% 2-2 4.3%
2-3 1.7% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 2.3% 3-1 2.7% 3-2 1.6%
3-3 0.6% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 0.6% 4-1 0.7% 4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.2% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.2%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 89.1% under_0.5 10.9% over_1.5 67.1%
under_1.5 32.9% over_2.5 39.9% under_2.5 60.1%
over_3.5 19.7% under_3.5 80.3% over_4.5 8.2%
under_4.5 91.9% over_5.5 2.9% under_5.5 97.1%
odd_even
odd 48.2% even 51.8%
team_home
over_0.5 66.6% under_0.5 33.4% over_1.5 30.0%
under_1.5 70.0% over_2.5 9.9% under_2.5 90.1%
team_away
over_0.5 69.4% under_0.5 30.6% over_1.5 33.1%
under_1.5 66.9% over_2.5 11.7% under_2.5 88.3%
most
home 33.0% draw 29.8% away 37.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 4.1% away_+2.5 95.9% home_-1.5 13.4%
away_+1.5 86.6% home_-0.5 33.0% away_+0.5 67.0%
home_+0.5 62.8% away_-0.5 37.2% home_+1.5 84.0%
away_-1.5 16.1% home_+2.5 94.8% away_-2.5 5.3%
total_exact
exact_0 10.9% exact_1 22.0% exact_2 27.3%
exact_3 20.2% exact_4 11.5% exact_5 5.3%
exact_6 2.0% exact_7plus 0.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.4% draw 45.1% away 22.6%
total
over_0.5 65.0% under_0.5 35.0% over_1.5 28.3%
under_1.5 71.7% over_2.5 9.0% under_2.5 91.0%
btts
yes 16.4% no 83.6%
total_exact
exact_0 35.0% exact_1 36.7% exact_2 19.3%
exact_3 6.8% exact_4plus 2.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.6% draw 40.7% away 28.7%
total
over_0.5 71.8% under_0.5 28.2% over_1.5 36.1%
under_1.5 63.9% over_2.5 13.5% under_2.5 86.5%
btts
yes 22.0% no 78.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 25.0% H/D 5.5% H/A 1.9%
D/H 13.8% D/D 18.3% D/A 12.9%
A/H 1.6% A/D 4.3% A/A 16.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.2% under_7.5 20.8% over_8.5 68.9%
under_8.5 31.1% over_9.5 57.4% under_9.5 42.6%
over_10.5 45.7% under_10.5 54.3% over_11.5 34.7%
under_11.5 65.3% over_12.5 25.2% under_12.5 74.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.1% under_3.5 20.9% over_4.5 65.3%
under_4.5 34.8% over_5.5 50.3% under_5.5 49.7%
team_away
over_3.5 63.9% under_3.5 36.1% over_4.5 46.8%
under_4.5 53.2% over_5.5 31.5% under_5.5 68.5%
most
home 57.4% draw 10.2% away 32.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.9% away_+3.5 73.1% home_-1.5 46.7%
away_+1.5 53.3% home_-0.5 57.4% away_+0.5 42.7%
home_+0.5 67.5% away_-0.5 32.5% home_+1.5 76.6%
away_-1.5 23.4% home_+3.5 89.6% away_-3.5 10.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 62.3% under_22.5 37.7% over_24.5 49.7%
under_24.5 50.3% over_26.5 37.5% under_26.5 62.5%
over_28.5 26.7% under_28.5 73.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.8% under_10.5 26.2% over_12.5 57.6%
under_12.5 42.4% over_14.5 41.2% under_14.5 58.8%
team_away
over_10.5 51.8% under_10.5 48.2% over_12.5 33.8%
under_12.5 66.2% over_14.5 19.8% under_14.5 80.3%
most
home 63.5% draw 5.8% away 30.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 38.4% away_+4.5 61.6% home_-2.5 51.0%
away_+2.5 49.0% home_-0.5 63.5% away_+0.5 36.5%
home_+0.5 69.4% away_-0.5 30.6% home_+2.5 79.6%
away_-2.5 20.4% home_+4.5 87.4% away_-4.5 12.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 65.9% under_6.5 34.1% over_7.5 52.9%
under_7.5 47.1% over_8.5 40.2% under_8.5 59.8%
over_9.5 28.9% under_9.5 71.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 60.6% under_3.5 39.4% over_4.5 43.0%
under_4.5 57.0% over_5.5 27.9% under_5.5 72.1%
team_away
over_3.5 47.8% under_3.5 52.2% over_4.5 30.3%
under_4.5 69.7% over_5.5 17.4% under_5.5 82.6%
most
home 52.5% draw 13.0% away 34.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.3% away_+2.5 72.7% home_-0.5 52.5%
away_+0.5 47.5% home_+0.5 65.5% away_-0.5 34.5%
home_+2.5 85.7% away_-2.5 14.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 71.4% under_2.5 28.6% over_3.5 50.5%
under_3.5 49.5% over_4.5 31.2% under_4.5 68.8%
over_5.5 16.9% under_5.5 83.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 47.3% under_1.5 52.8% over_2.5 21.5%
under_2.5 78.5%
team_away
over_1.5 62.1% under_1.5 37.9% over_2.5 35.1%
under_2.5 64.9%
most
home 29.4% draw 21.0% away 49.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 13.9% away_+1.5 86.1% home_-0.5 29.4%
away_+0.5 70.6% home_+0.5 50.4% away_-0.5 49.6%
home_+1.5 70.8% away_-1.5 29.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 57.7% under_20.5 42.3% over_22.5 42.0%
under_22.5 58.0% over_24.5 27.9% under_24.5 72.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 57.8% under_9.5 42.2% over_11.5 35.4%
under_11.5 64.6% over_13.5 18.2% under_13.5 81.8%
team_away
over_9.5 67.2% under_9.5 32.8% over_11.5 45.4%
under_11.5 54.6% over_13.5 26.0% under_13.5 74.0%
most
home 39.0% draw 7.9% away 53.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 18.9% away_+3.5 81.1% home_-0.5 39.0%
away_+0.5 61.0% home_+2.5 62.6% away_-2.5 37.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 5.9% no 94.1%
home
yes 3.6% no 96.4%
away
yes 2.4% no 97.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Lincoln predictions · Blackburn predictions · Championship

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

ChampionshipLincolnBlackburnTrack record