Inter vs Napoli: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Serie A

Inter

WDDWW

Full time3-2Sat, 5 Sep 202617:00UK33°C · Clearing

Napoli

LWWWL

Model’s top convictions

76%

Inter or draw

74%

Over 1.5 goals

52%

Under 2.5 goals

Full time6 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Inter 3-2 Napoli

✓ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card

7 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Inter at 50.7%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 51.5% and it missed (5 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 74.0% and it landed (5 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 73.2% and it missed (5 goals). We called Yes at 51.5% and it landed. We called Yes at 74.9% and it missed. We called Yes at 76.3% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 60.5% and it missed (15 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 60.0% and it landed (3 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 54.3% and it missed (45 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 52.5% and it landed (15 shots on target). We called No at 91.9% and it landed.

Match data	Inter	Napoli
Goals, 1st half	0	0
Goals, 2nd half	3	2
Shots	29	16
Shots, 1st half	8	6
Shots, 2nd half	21	10
Shots on target	8	7
Corners	10	5
Yellow cards	1	2
Red cards	0	0
Fouls	7	7
Expected goals (xG)	3.78	2.32

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

InterWin probability

50.7%

Top 3 convictions

Inter or draw76.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.31

Over 1.5 goals74.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.35

Under 2.5 goals51.5%Good chancePays @ 1.94

Model read

▾

A measured edge to Inter: 51% is the model's line for this Serie A meeting on 5 September 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Totals sit close to the fence: 48% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. 2) Conditions could matter: the forecast says 33 degrees of heat. 3) The recent series reads 0 wins for Inter, 4 draws and 1 for Napoli over 5 games, 2.8 goals on average. Lautaro Martínez drives the home shot volume, 1.4 on target per 90. Recent form reads W4 D2 L0 for Inter against W3 D1 L2 for Napoli. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners39.4%@ 2.54

Over 10.5 corners30.8%@ 3.25

Medium risk

Both teams to score51.5%@ 1.94

Draw or Napoli49.3%@ 2.03

Over 8.5 corners49.0%@ 2.04

Random finds

1-1 correct score12.5%@ 8.01

1-0 correct score11.1%@ 9.03

2-1 correct score9.4%@ 10.60

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Inter

50.7%

Draw

25.7%

Napoli

23.6%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.574.0%

Strong chance

Over 2.548.5%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes51.5%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.549.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 9.539.4%

Toss-up

Over 10.530.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.523.5%

Low chance

Most cornersInter54.9%Napoli34.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.557.8%

Good chance

Over 24.545.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.534.3%

Toss-up

Over 28.524.4%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.574.0%2.548.5%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.574.0%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

InterWDDWW

NapoliLWWWL

Last 5 meetings: Inter 0 · 4 draws · Napoli 1 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-01-11Inter 2-2 Napoli

2025-10-25Napoli 3-1 Inter

2025-03-01Napoli 1-1 Inter

2024-11-10Inter 1-1 Napoli

2024-03-17Inter 1-1 Napoli

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Inter

Napoli

League position#2 of 20#10 of 20

Record W-D-L2-0-01-0-1

Current streakW2L1

Record, home vs away1-0-01-0-0

Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.45 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 45% · BTTS in 35%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Lautaro MartínezInter · key player

To score39.2%

@ 2.55

1+ on target70.3%

@ 1.42

2+ shots84.8%

@ 1.18

Shots/90 3.84SoT/90 1.39Goals/90 0.57

Alisson SantosNapoli · key player

To score20.7%

@ 4.83

1+ on target63.3%

@ 1.58

2+ shots64.0%

@ 1.56

Shots/90 3.28SoT/90 1.51Goals/90 0.35

Francesco Pio EspositoInter · in form

To score18.8%

@ 5.32

1+ on target50.7%

@ 1.97

2+ shots53.4%

@ 1.87

Shots/90 3.51SoT/90 1.39Goals/90 0.41

Lorenzo LuccaNapoli · in form

To score21.7%

@ 4.61

1+ on target45.5%

@ 2.20

2+ shots47.0%

@ 2.13

Shots/90 2.85SoT/90 1.09Goals/90 0.44

Marcus ThuramInter · in form

To score32.9%

@ 3.04

1+ on target56.6%

@ 1.77

2+ shots66.1%

@ 1.51

Shots/90 3.01SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.53

Scott McTominayNapoli · in form

To score27.5%

@ 3.64

1+ on target62.7%

@ 1.59

2+ shots73.2%

@ 1.37

Shots/90 2.74SoT/90 1.04Goals/90 0.34

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Inter win2.00

Draw3.80

Napoli win4.20

Both teams to score1.94

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09

Over 1.5 goals1.35

Over 2.5 goals2.06

Over 3.5 goals3.74

Inter most2.00

Napoli most4.20

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.63

Over 8.5 corners2.00

Over 9.5 corners2.53

Over 10.5 corners3.33

Inter most1.82

Napoli most2.89

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.62

Over 3.5 cards2.50

Over 4.5 cards4.42

Over 5.5 cards8.89

Inter most2.62

Napoli most2.58

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.56

Over 7.5 SoT1.91

Over 8.5 SoT2.42

Over 9.5 SoT3.20

Inter most1.88

Napoli most2.87

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.73

Over 24.5 shots2.19

Over 26.5 shots2.92

Over 28.5 shots4.11

Inter most1.63

Napoli most3.04

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.61

Over 22.5 fouls2.09

Over 24.5 fouls2.90

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	64.2%	Over 7.5	52.5%	Over 8.5	41.2%	Over 9.5	31.2%
Most: Inter	53.3%	Most: Napoli	34.9%
Inter Over 4.2	43.8%	Napoli Over 4.2	30.6%

Cards

Over 2.5	61.8%	Over 3.5	40.0%	Over 4.5	22.6%
Most: Inter	38.2%	Most: Napoli	38.8%
Inter Over 1.8	47.1%	Napoli Over 1.8	47.5%

Inter: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Lautaro Martínez	3.84	1.39	0.57	70.3%	84.8%	39.2%
Francesco Pio Esposito	3.51	1.39	0.41	50.7%	53.4%	18.8%
Marcus Thuram	3.01	1.11	0.53	56.6%	66.1%	32.9%
Hakan Calhanoglu	2.41	0.8	0.38	46.4%	56.1%	25.7%
Federico Dimarco	2.19	0.75	0.2	45.3%	52.6%	14.9%

Napoli: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Alisson Santos	3.28	1.51	0.35	63.3%	64.0%	20.7%
Lorenzo Lucca	2.85	1.09	0.44	45.5%	47.0%	21.7%
Scott McTominay	2.74	1.04	0.34	62.7%	73.2%	27.5%
Kevin De Bruyne	2.48	0.8	0.3	40.5%	47.9%	17.7%
Rasmus Højlund	1.71	0.71	0.34	44.4%	41.2%	24.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Inter clean sheet	35.8%
Napoli clean sheet	20.5%
Inter win to nil	27.8%
Napoli win to nil	12.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	49.9%	draw	26.3%	away	23.8%

double_chance

1X	76.2%	12	73.7%	X2	50.1%

dnb

home	67.7%	away	32.3%

btts

yes	51.6%	no	48.4%

clean_sheet

home	36.0%	away	20.5%

win_to_nil

home	28.0%	away	12.5%

winning_margin

home_by_1	23.5%	home_by_2	15.4%	home_by_3plus	11.0%
away_by_1	14.9%	away_by_2	6.4%	away_by_3plus	2.5%

correct_score

0-0	8.0%	0-1	6.9%	0-2	3.8%
0-3	1.3%	0-4	0.3%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	11.1%	1-1	12.5%	1-2	6.1%
1-3	2.1%	1-4	0.5%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	9.2%	2-1	9.4%	2-2	4.8%
2-3	1.7%	2-4	0.4%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	4.9%	3-1	5.0%	3-2	2.6%
3-3	0.9%	3-4	0.2%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	2.0%	4-1	2.0%	4-2	1.0%
4-3	0.4%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.6%	5-1	0.6%	5-2	0.3%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.7%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	12.5%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	92.0%	under_0.5	8.0%	over_1.5	74.0%
under_1.5	26.0%	over_2.5	48.5%	under_2.5	51.5%
over_3.5	26.8%	under_3.5	73.2%	over_4.5	12.6%
under_4.5	87.4%	over_5.5	5.1%	under_5.5	94.9%

odd_even

odd	48.5%	even	51.5%

team_home

over_0.5	79.5%	under_0.5	20.5%	over_1.5	47.2%
under_1.5	52.8%	over_2.5	21.5%	under_2.5	78.5%

team_away

over_0.5	64.0%	under_0.5	36.0%	over_1.5	27.3%
under_1.5	72.7%	over_2.5	8.5%	under_2.5	91.5%

most

home	49.9%	draw	26.3%	away	23.8%

handicap

home_-2.5	11.0%	away_+2.5	89.0%	home_-1.5	26.4%
away_+1.5	73.6%	home_-0.5	49.9%	away_+0.5	50.1%
home_+0.5	76.2%	away_-0.5	23.8%	home_+1.5	91.1%
away_-1.5	8.9%	home_+2.5	97.5%	away_-2.5	2.5%

total_exact

exact_0	8.0%	exact_1	18.0%	exact_2	25.5%
exact_3	21.7%	exact_4	14.2%	exact_5	7.5%
exact_6	3.3%	exact_7plus	1.8%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	36.7%	draw	38.3%	away	25.0%

total

over_0.5	74.9%	under_0.5	25.1%	over_1.5	40.2%
under_1.5	59.8%	over_2.5	16.2%	under_2.5	83.8%

btts

yes	24.4%	no	75.6%

total_exact

exact_0	25.1%	exact_1	34.7%	exact_2	24.0%
exact_3	11.0%	exact_4plus	5.2%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	44.1%	draw	36.4%	away	19.6%

total

over_0.5	76.3%	under_0.5	23.7%	over_1.5	42.2%
under_1.5	57.8%	over_2.5	17.6%	under_2.5	82.4%

btts

yes	24.2%	no	75.8%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	31.4%	H/D	4.1%	H/A	1.1%
D/H	16.9%	D/D	13.9%	D/A	7.5%
A/H	3.3%	A/D	5.8%	A/A	15.9%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	61.3%	under_7.5	38.7%	over_8.5	50.1%
under_8.5	49.9%	over_9.5	39.5%	under_9.5	60.5%
over_10.5	30.0%	under_10.5	70.0%	over_11.5	22.1%
under_11.5	77.9%	over_12.5	15.7%	under_12.5	84.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	65.3%	under_3.5	34.8%	over_4.5	50.8%
under_4.5	49.2%	over_5.5	37.6%	under_5.5	62.5%

team_away

over_3.5	50.6%	under_3.5	49.4%	over_4.5	35.3%
under_4.5	64.7%	over_5.5	23.2%	under_5.5	76.8%

most

home	55.1%	draw	10.3%	away	34.6%

handicap

home_-3.5	25.7%	away_+3.5	74.3%	home_-1.5	44.5%
away_+1.5	55.5%	home_-0.5	55.1%	away_+0.5	44.9%
home_+0.5	65.4%	away_-0.5	34.6%	home_+1.5	74.6%
away_-1.5	25.4%	home_+3.5	88.2%	away_-3.5	11.8%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	57.8%	under_22.5	42.2%	over_24.5	45.7%
under_24.5	54.3%	over_26.5	34.3%	under_26.5	65.7%
over_28.5	24.4%	under_28.5	75.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	69.3%	under_10.5	30.7%	over_12.5	53.2%
under_12.5	46.8%	over_14.5	37.7%	under_14.5	62.3%

team_away

over_10.5	49.8%	under_10.5	50.2%	over_12.5	32.8%
under_12.5	67.2%	over_14.5	19.6%	under_14.5	80.4%

most

home	61.3%	draw	5.8%	away	32.9%

handicap

home_-4.5	37.0%	away_+4.5	63.0%	home_-2.5	49.1%
away_+2.5	50.9%	home_-0.5	61.3%	away_+0.5	38.7%
home_+0.5	67.1%	away_-0.5	32.9%	home_+2.5	77.4%
away_-2.5	22.6%	home_+4.5	85.6%	away_-4.5	14.4%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	64.1%	under_6.5	35.9%	over_7.5	52.5%
under_7.5	47.5%	over_8.5	41.2%	under_8.5	58.8%
over_9.5	31.2%	under_9.5	68.8%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	59.2%	under_3.5	40.8%	over_4.5	43.8%
under_4.5	56.3%	over_5.5	30.5%	under_5.5	69.5%

team_away

over_3.5	46.2%	under_3.5	53.8%	over_4.5	30.6%
under_4.5	69.4%	over_5.5	19.1%	under_5.5	81.0%

most

home	53.3%	draw	11.8%	away	34.9%

handicap

home_-2.5	30.3%	away_+2.5	69.7%	home_-0.5	53.3%
away_+0.5	46.7%	home_+0.5	65.1%	away_-0.5	34.9%
home_+2.5	83.9%	away_-2.5	16.1%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	61.8%	under_2.5	38.2%	over_3.5	40.0%
under_3.5	60.0%	over_4.5	22.6%	under_4.5	77.4%
over_5.5	11.3%	under_5.5	88.8%

odd_even

odd	49.9%	even	50.1%

team_home

over_1.5	47.1%	under_1.5	52.9%	over_2.5	22.0%
under_2.5	78.0%

team_away

over_1.5	47.5%	under_1.5	52.5%	over_2.5	22.3%
under_2.5	77.7%

most

home	38.2%	draw	23.1%	away	38.8%

handicap

home_-1.5	19.3%	away_+1.5	80.7%	home_-0.5	38.2%
away_+0.5	61.8%	home_+0.5	61.3%	away_-0.5	38.8%
home_+1.5	80.3%	away_-1.5	19.7%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	62.0%	under_20.5	38.0%	over_22.5	47.9%
under_22.5	52.1%	over_24.5	34.5%	under_24.5	65.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	66.1%	under_9.5	33.9%	over_11.5	46.3%
under_11.5	53.7%	over_13.5	28.6%	under_13.5	71.4%

team_away

over_9.5	62.8%	under_9.5	37.2%	over_11.5	42.7%
under_11.5	57.3%	over_13.5	25.5%	under_13.5	74.5%

most

home	49.0%	draw	7.1%	away	43.9%

handicap

home_-3.5	28.7%	away_+3.5	71.3%	home_-0.5	49.0%
away_+0.5	51.0%	home_+2.5	69.6%	away_-2.5	30.4%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	8.1%	no	91.9%

home

yes	2.3%	no	97.7%

away

yes	6.0%	no	94.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Inter predictions · Napoli predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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