Nice vs Le Mans prediction & probabilities (2026-09-05)

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Nice vs Le Mans: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Ligue 1
Nice

DLDDL

Full time1-1Sat, 5 Sep 202619:45UK26°C · Clear
Le Mans

DL

Model’s top convictions

77%

Over 1.5 goals

76%

Nice or draw

62%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time5 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Nice 1-1 Le Mans
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✕ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
5 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Nice at 51.6%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 51.9% and it missed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 76.6% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 70.2% and it landed (2 goals). We called Yes at 54.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 79.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 77.4% and it missed. We called Over 9.5 at 52.7% and it missed (7 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 51.5% and it missed (4 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 54.0% and it missed (16 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 65.2% and it missed (5 shots on target). We called No at 78.8% and it landed.

Match data Nice Le Mans
Goals, 1st half 1 1
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 8 8
Shots, 1st half 3 3
Shots, 2nd half 5 5
Shots on target 2 3
Corners 5 2
Yellow cards 2 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 4 11
Expected goals (xG) 1.25 1.18

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
NiceWin probability
51.6%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals76.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.31
Nice or draw76.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.32
Over 8.5 corners61.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.62

Model read

▾

Few Ligue 1 fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Nice carry a 52% win probability against Le Mans on 5 September 2026. The numbers that frame it: • Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 55%. • Recent form reads W0 D4 L2 for Nice against W0 D1 L1 for Le Mans. • Isak Jansson drives the home shot volume, 1.4 on target per 90. Le Mans are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners41.0%@ 2.44
Over 11.5 corners31.6%@ 3.16
Medium risk

Both teams to score54.7%@ 1.83
Over 2.5 goals51.9%@ 1.93
Over 9.5 corners51.3%@ 1.95
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.2%@ 8.20
1-0 correct score9.9%@ 10.15
2-1 correct score9.5%@ 10.52

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Nice

51.6%

Draw

24.4%

Le Mans

24.1%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.576.6%

Strong chance

Over 2.551.9%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes54.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.561.9%

Strong chance

Over 9.551.3%

Good chance

Over 10.541.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.531.6%

Toss-up

Most cornersNice54.7%Le Mans34.7%

Shots markets

Over 22.566.3%

Strong chance

Over 24.554.0%

Good chance

Over 26.541.7%

Toss-up

Over 28.530.3%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.6%2.551.9%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.576.6%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

NiceDLDDL
Le MansDL

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

NiceLe Mans
League position#17 of 18#13 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-10-1-1
Current streakL1L1
Record, home vs away0-1-00-0-1
Red cards this season01

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Isak JanssonNice · key player
To score4.2%

@ 23.81

1+ on target35.2%

@ 2.84

2+ shots15.4%

@ 6.49

Shots/90 2.26SoT/90 1.41Goals/90 0.14
Sepe Elye WahiNice · in form
To score15.1%

@ 6.62

1+ on target46.7%

@ 2.14

2+ shots33.2%

@ 3.01

Shots/90 2.54SoT/90 1.35Goals/90 0.35
Nathan N'Goumou MinpolNice · in form
To score10.1%

@ 9.90

1+ on target43.9%

@ 2.28

2+ shots37.9%

@ 2.64

Shots/90 2.48SoT/90 1.09Goals/90 0.2

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Nice win2.04
Draw3.89
Le Mans win3.95
Both teams to score1.83

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.30
Over 2.5 goals1.93
Over 3.5 goals3.35
Nice most2.04
Le Mans most3.95

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.32
Over 8.5 corners1.55
Over 9.5 corners1.90
Over 10.5 corners2.44
Nice most1.82
Le Mans most2.88

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.43
Over 3.5 cards2.06
Over 4.5 cards3.41
Over 5.5 cards6.42
Nice most2.84
Le Mans most2.33

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.31
Over 7.5 SoT1.53
Over 8.5 SoT1.89
Over 9.5 SoT2.44
Nice most1.98
Le Mans most2.70

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.51
Over 24.5 shots1.85
Over 26.5 shots2.40
Over 28.5 shots3.30
Nice most1.67
Le Mans most2.94

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.40
Over 22.5 fouls1.73
Over 24.5 fouls2.31
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 76.5% Over 7.5 65.2% Over 8.5 53.0% Over 9.5 41.0%
Most: Nice 50.6% Most: Le Mans 37.1%
Nice Over 4.2 50.5% Le Mans Over 4.2 40.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 69.7% Over 3.5 48.5% Over 4.5 29.3%
Most: Nice 35.2% Most: Le Mans 43.0%
Nice Over 1.8 50.8% Le Mans Over 1.8 56.5%

Nice: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Isak Jansson 2.26 1.41 0.14 35.2% 15.4% 4.2%
Sepe Elye Wahi 2.54 1.35 0.35 46.7% 33.2% 15.1%
Nathan N'Goumou Minpol 2.48 1.09 0.2 43.9% 37.9% 10.1%
Sofiane Diop 2.08 0.77 0.37 36.8% 35.2% 19.8%
Mohamed Ali-Cho 1.86 0.68 0.17 38.3% 38.1% 11.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Nice clean sheet 32.6%
Le Mans clean sheet 19.4%
Nice win to nil 25.6%
Le Mans win to nil 12.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 49.0% draw 25.7% away 25.3%
double_chance
1X 74.7% 12 74.3% X2 51.0%
dnb
home 66.0% away 34.0%
btts
yes 54.7% no 45.3%
clean_sheet
home 32.8% away 19.5%
win_to_nil
home 25.9% away 12.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.8% home_by_2 15.1% home_by_3plus 11.2%
away_by_1 15.3% away_by_2 7.0% away_by_3plus 3.0%
correct_score
0-0 7.0% 0-1 6.5% 0-2 4.0%
0-3 1.5% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 9.9% 1-1 12.2% 1-2 6.5%
1-3 2.4% 1-4 0.7% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.5% 2-1 9.5% 2-2 5.3%
2-3 2.0% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.7% 3-1 5.2% 3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.9% 4-1 2.2% 4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.6% 5-1 0.7% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.8%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.0% under_0.5 7.0% over_1.5 76.6%
under_1.5 23.4% over_2.5 51.9% under_2.5 48.1%
over_3.5 29.8% under_3.5 70.2% over_4.5 14.6%
under_4.5 85.4% over_5.5 6.2% under_5.5 93.8%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 80.5% under_0.5 19.5% over_1.5 48.8%
under_1.5 51.2% over_2.5 22.8% under_2.5 77.2%
team_away
over_0.5 67.2% under_0.5 32.8% over_1.5 30.6%
under_1.5 69.4% over_2.5 10.2% under_2.5 89.8%
most
home 49.0% draw 25.7% away 25.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 11.2% away_+2.5 88.8% home_-1.5 26.3%
away_+1.5 73.7% home_-0.5 49.0% away_+0.5 51.0%
home_+0.5 74.7% away_-0.5 25.3% home_+1.5 90.0%
away_-1.5 10.0% home_+2.5 97.0% away_-2.5 3.0%
total_exact
exact_0 7.0% exact_1 16.4% exact_2 24.7%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 15.2% exact_5 8.4%
exact_6 3.9% exact_7plus 2.3%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.2% draw 35.7% away 32.1%
total
over_0.5 79.2% under_0.5 20.8% over_1.5 46.6%
under_1.5 53.4% over_2.5 20.9% under_2.5 79.1%
btts
yes 29.6% no 70.4%
total_exact
exact_0 20.8% exact_1 32.7% exact_2 25.7%
exact_3 13.4% exact_4plus 7.5%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.6% draw 36.9% away 32.6%
total
over_0.5 77.4% under_0.5 22.6% over_1.5 43.9%
under_1.5 56.2% over_2.5 18.8% under_2.5 81.2%
btts
yes 27.6% no 72.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 24.2% H/D 5.6% H/A 2.4%
D/H 10.9% D/D 13.2% D/A 11.6%
A/H 2.2% A/D 5.3% A/A 24.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 75.7% under_7.5 24.3% over_8.5 64.6%
under_8.5 35.4% over_9.5 52.7% under_9.5 47.3%
over_10.5 41.0% under_10.5 59.0% over_11.5 30.5%
under_11.5 69.6% over_12.5 21.6% under_12.5 78.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.4% under_3.5 24.6% over_4.5 60.6%
under_4.5 39.4% over_5.5 45.5% under_5.5 54.5%
team_away
over_3.5 62.5% under_3.5 37.5% over_4.5 45.4%
under_4.5 54.6% over_5.5 30.5% under_5.5 69.5%
most
home 54.8% draw 10.4% away 34.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.7% away_+3.5 75.3% home_-1.5 44.1%
away_+1.5 55.9% home_-0.5 54.8% away_+0.5 45.2%
home_+0.5 65.3% away_-0.5 34.7% home_+1.5 74.6%
away_-1.5 25.4% home_+3.5 88.5% away_-3.5 11.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 66.3% under_22.5 33.7% over_24.5 54.0%
under_24.5 46.0% over_26.5 41.7% under_26.5 58.4%
over_28.5 30.3% under_28.5 69.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.3% under_10.5 25.7% over_12.5 58.2%
under_12.5 41.8% over_14.5 41.7% under_14.5 58.3%
team_away
over_10.5 57.6% under_10.5 42.4% over_12.5 39.4%
under_12.5 60.6% over_14.5 24.2% under_14.5 75.8%
most
home 60.1% draw 6.0% away 34.0%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.2% away_+4.5 64.8% home_-2.5 47.5%
away_+2.5 52.5% home_-0.5 60.1% away_+0.5 40.0%
home_+0.5 66.0% away_-0.5 34.0% home_+2.5 76.7%
away_-2.5 23.3% home_+4.5 85.2% away_-4.5 14.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 76.5% under_6.5 23.5% over_7.5 65.2%
under_7.5 34.8% over_8.5 53.0% under_8.5 47.0%
over_9.5 41.0% under_9.5 59.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.5% under_3.5 32.5% over_4.5 50.5%
under_4.5 49.5% over_5.5 34.8% under_5.5 65.2%
team_away
over_3.5 58.6% under_3.5 41.4% over_4.5 40.7%
under_4.5 59.3% over_5.5 25.8% under_5.5 74.2%
most
home 50.6% draw 12.3% away 37.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.1% away_+2.5 72.9% home_-0.5 50.6%
away_+0.5 49.4% home_+0.5 62.9% away_-0.5 37.1%
home_+2.5 83.0% away_-2.5 17.0%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 69.7% under_2.5 30.3% over_3.5 48.5%
under_3.5 51.5% over_4.5 29.3% under_4.5 70.7%
over_5.5 15.6% under_5.5 84.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 50.8% under_1.5 49.2% over_2.5 24.4%
under_2.5 75.6%
team_away
over_1.5 56.5% under_1.5 43.5% over_2.5 29.5%
under_2.5 70.5%
most
home 35.2% draw 21.8% away 43.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 17.7% away_+1.5 82.3% home_-0.5 35.2%
away_+0.5 64.8% home_+0.5 57.0% away_-0.5 43.0%
home_+1.5 76.5% away_-1.5 23.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 71.4% under_20.5 28.6% over_22.5 57.6%
under_22.5 42.4% over_24.5 43.3% under_24.5 56.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 72.1% under_9.5 27.9% over_11.5 52.1%
under_11.5 47.9% over_13.5 33.0% under_13.5 67.1%
team_away
over_9.5 71.0% under_9.5 29.0% over_11.5 50.8%
under_11.5 49.2% over_13.5 31.8% under_13.5 68.3%
most
home 47.3% draw 7.2% away 45.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.0% away_+3.5 73.0% home_-0.5 47.3%
away_+0.5 52.7% home_+2.5 68.4% away_-2.5 31.6%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 21.2% no 78.8%
home
yes 6.0% no 94.0%
away
yes 16.2% no 83.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Nice predictions · Le Mans predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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