Lens vs Lorient: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Ligue 1

Lens

WLWWL

Full time0-1Sat, 5 Sep 202616:15UK

Lorient

DWLDL

Model’s top convictions

83%

Lens or draw

81%

Over 1.5 goals

60%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time4 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Lens 0-1 Lorient

✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✕ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✕ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card

4 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Lens at 60.7%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 58.3% and it missed (1 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 81.0% and it missed (1 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 64.1% and it landed (1 goals). We called Yes at 57.0% and it missed. We called Yes at 68.4% and it missed. We called Yes at 85.2% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 50.6% and it missed (8 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 51.5% and it missed (5 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 52.6% and it landed (25 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 62.3% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 86.1% and it missed.

Match data	Lens	Lorient
Goals, 1st half	0	0
Goals, 2nd half	0	1
Shots	17	8
Shots, 1st half	8	3
Shots, 2nd half	9	5
Shots on target	6	3
Corners	8	0
Yellow cards	4	1
Red cards	1	0
Fouls	18	6
Expected goals (xG)	1.10	1.03

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

LensWin probability

60.7%

Top 3 convictions

Lens or draw82.7%High probabilityPays @ 1.21

Over 1.5 goals81.0%High probabilityPays @ 1.23

Over 8.5 corners60.1%Strong chancePays @ 1.66

Model read

▾

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Lens heavy favourites at 61% when Lens meet Lorient in the Ligue 1 on 5 September 2026. Totals sit close to the fence: 58% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 57%. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 3 wins for Lens, 1 draws and 1 for Lorient, averaging 2.4 goals a game. Recent form reads W3 D1 L2 for Lens against W1 D2 L3 for Lorient. Odsonne Edouard drives the home shot volume, 1.4 on target per 90. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Lorient39.3%@ 2.54

Over 10.5 corners39.1%@ 2.56

Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals58.3%@ 1.72

Both teams to score57.0%@ 1.75

Over 9.5 corners49.3%@ 2.03

Random finds

1-1 correct score10.7%@ 9.37

2-1 correct score9.9%@ 10.10

2-0 correct score9.2%@ 10.86

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Lens

60.7%

Draw

22.0%

Lorient

17.3%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.0%

High probability

Over 2.558.3%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes57.0%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.1%

Strong chance

Over 9.549.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.539.1%

Toss-up

Over 11.529.9%

Low chance

Most cornersLens59.0%Lorient30.6%

Shots markets

Over 22.565.0%

Strong chance

Over 24.552.6%

Good chance

Over 26.540.2%

Toss-up

Over 28.529.0%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.0%2.558.3%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.581.0%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

LensWLWWL

LorientDWLDL

Last 5 meetings: Lens 3 · 1 draws · Lorient 1 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-03-14Lorient 2-1 Lens

2025-11-02Lens 3-0 Lorient

2024-05-03Lens 2-0 Lorient

2023-11-04Lorient 0-0 Lens

2023-05-21Lorient 1-3 Lens

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Lens

Lorient

League position#7 of 18#15 of 18

Record W-D-L1-0-10-1-1

Current streakL1L1

Record, home vs away1-0-00-1-0

Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Odsonne EdouardLens · key player

To score28.4%

@ 3.52

1+ on target57.7%

@ 1.73

2+ shots51.3%

@ 1.95

Shots/90 2.88SoT/90 1.44Goals/90 0.56

Aiyegun TosinLorient · key player

To score16.0%

@ 6.25

1+ on target33.8%

@ 2.96

2+ shots29.0%

@ 3.45

Shots/90 2.52SoT/90 0.97Goals/90 0.41

Florian ThauvinLens · in form

To score30.1%

@ 3.32

1+ on target62.7%

@ 1.59

2+ shots66.0%

@ 1.52

Shots/90 2.59SoT/90 1.13Goals/90 0.41

Jean-Victor MakengoLorient · in form

To score13.4%

@ 7.46

1+ on target37.7%

@ 2.65

2+ shots37.1%

@ 2.70

Shots/90 1.89SoT/90 0.69Goals/90 0.21

Abdallah SimaLens · in form

To score15.2%

@ 6.58

1+ on target39.9%

@ 2.51

2+ shots41.1%

@ 2.43

Shots/90 2.99SoT/90 1.08Goals/90 0.35

Panos KatserisLorient · in form

To score5.2%

@ 19.23

1+ on target23.0%

@ 4.35

2+ shots6.7%

@ 14.93

Shots/90 0.87SoT/90 0.54Goals/90 0.11

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Lens win1.75

Draw4.39

Lorient win5.01

Both teams to score1.76

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.06

Over 1.5 goals1.24

Over 2.5 goals1.72

Over 3.5 goals2.78

Lens most1.75

Lorient most5.01

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.35

Over 8.5 corners1.60

Over 9.5 corners1.98

Over 10.5 corners2.57

Lens most1.69

Lorient most3.27

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.43

Over 3.5 cards2.06

Over 4.5 cards3.41

Over 5.5 cards6.42

Lens most2.46

Lorient most2.67

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.35

Over 7.5 SoT1.61

Over 8.5 SoT2.01

Over 9.5 SoT2.64

Lens most1.63

Lorient most3.71

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.54

Over 24.5 shots1.90

Over 26.5 shots2.49

Over 28.5 shots3.45

Lens most1.52

Lorient most3.51

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.46

Over 22.5 fouls1.84

Over 24.5 fouls2.50

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	74.1%	Over 7.5	62.3%	Over 8.5	49.8%	Over 9.5	37.9%
Most: Lens	61.4%	Most: Lorient	27.0%
Lens Over 4.2	55.6%	Lorient Over 4.2	30.4%

Cards

Over 2.5	69.7%	Over 3.5	48.5%	Over 4.5	29.3%
Most: Lens	40.6%	Most: Lorient	37.5%
Lens Over 1.8	54.8%	Lorient Over 1.8	52.5%

Lens: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Odsonne Edouard	2.88	1.44	0.56	57.7%	51.3%	28.4%
Florian Thauvin	2.59	1.13	0.41	62.7%	66.0%	30.1%
Abdallah Sima	2.99	1.08	0.35	39.9%	41.1%	15.2%
Andrija Bulatovic	1.87	0.82	0	27.4%	16.6%	0.0%
Florian Sotoca	2.19	0.58	0.09	20.7%	21.8%	3.5%

Lorient: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Aiyegun Tosin	2.52	0.97	0.41	33.8%	29.0%	16.0%
Jean-Victor Makengo	1.89	0.69	0.21	37.7%	37.1%	13.4%
Panos Katseris	0.87	0.54	0.11	23.0%	6.7%	5.2%
Noah Cadiou	1.02	0.38	0.13	25.0%	18.2%	9.4%
Théo Le Bris	0.82	0.35	0.09	23.0%	12.6%	6.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Lens clean sheet	33.6%
Lorient clean sheet	14.2%
Lens win to nil	28.2%
Lorient win to nil	8.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	57.3%	draw	22.8%	away	20.0%

double_chance

1X	80.0%	12	77.2%	X2	42.8%

dnb

home	74.1%	away	25.9%

btts

yes	57.0%	no	43.0%

clean_sheet

home	34.1%	away	14.2%

win_to_nil

home	28.8%	away	8.9%

winning_margin

home_by_1	23.0%	home_by_2	17.6%	home_by_3plus	16.7%
away_by_1	12.5%	away_by_2	5.4%	away_by_3plus	2.2%

correct_score

0-0	5.4%	0-1	4.7%	0-2	2.8%
0-3	1.0%	0-4	0.3%	0-5	0.1%
1-0	8.9%	1-1	10.7%	1-2	5.5%
1-3	2.0%	1-4	0.5%	1-5	0.1%
2-0	9.2%	2-1	9.9%	2-2	5.3%
2-3	1.9%	2-4	0.5%	2-5	0.1%
3-0	6.0%	3-1	6.5%	3-2	3.5%
3-3	1.2%	3-4	0.3%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	2.9%	4-1	3.2%	4-2	1.7%
4-3	0.6%	4-4	0.2%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	1.2%	5-1	1.2%	5-2	0.7%
5-3	0.2%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.6%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	10.7%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	94.6%	under_0.5	5.4%	over_1.5	81.0%
under_1.5	19.0%	over_2.5	58.3%	under_2.5	41.7%
over_3.5	35.9%	under_3.5	64.1%	over_4.5	19.0%
under_4.5	81.0%	over_5.5	8.7%	under_5.5	91.3%

odd_even

odd	48.9%	even	51.1%

team_home

over_0.5	85.8%	under_0.5	14.2%	over_1.5	58.1%
under_1.5	41.9%	over_2.5	31.1%	under_2.5	68.9%

team_away

over_0.5	65.9%	under_0.5	34.1%	over_1.5	29.2%
under_1.5	70.8%	over_2.5	9.5%	under_2.5	90.6%

most

home	57.3%	draw	22.8%	away	20.0%

handicap

home_-2.5	16.7%	away_+2.5	83.3%	home_-1.5	34.3%
away_+1.5	65.7%	home_-0.5	57.3%	away_+0.5	42.8%
home_+0.5	80.0%	away_-0.5	20.0%	home_+1.5	92.5%
away_-1.5	7.5%	home_+2.5	97.8%	away_-2.5	2.2%

total_exact

exact_0	5.4%	exact_1	13.7%	exact_2	22.7%
exact_3	22.4%	exact_4	16.9%	exact_5	10.3%
exact_6	5.2%	exact_7plus	3.5%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	35.0%	draw	42.6%	away	22.4%

total

over_0.5	68.4%	under_0.5	31.6%	over_1.5	32.0%
under_1.5	68.0%	over_2.5	11.0%	under_2.5	89.0%

btts

yes	18.7%	no	81.4%

total_exact

exact_0	31.6%	exact_1	36.4%	exact_2	21.0%
exact_3	8.1%	exact_4plus	3.0%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	53.9%	draw	29.0%	away	17.1%

total

over_0.5	85.2%	under_0.5	14.8%	over_1.5	56.9%
under_1.5	43.1%	over_2.5	29.9%	under_2.5	70.1%

btts

yes	33.0%	no	67.0%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	30.4%	H/D	3.5%	H/A	1.1%
D/H	23.0%	D/D	12.4%	D/A	7.3%
A/H	5.0%	A/D	5.7%	A/A	11.8%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	74.0%	under_7.5	26.0%	over_8.5	62.6%
under_8.5	37.4%	over_9.5	50.6%	under_9.5	49.4%
over_10.5	38.9%	under_10.5	61.1%	over_11.5	28.5%
under_11.5	71.5%	over_12.5	19.9%	under_12.5	80.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	76.6%	under_3.5	23.4%	over_4.5	62.2%
under_4.5	37.8%	over_5.5	47.2%	under_5.5	52.8%

team_away

over_3.5	57.8%	under_3.5	42.2%	over_4.5	40.4%
under_4.5	59.6%	over_5.5	26.0%	under_5.5	74.0%

most

home	59.1%	draw	10.2%	away	30.6%

handicap

home_-3.5	28.0%	away_+3.5	72.1%	home_-1.5	48.3%
away_+1.5	51.7%	home_-0.5	59.1%	away_+0.5	40.9%
home_+0.5	69.4%	away_-0.5	30.6%	home_+1.5	78.3%
away_-1.5	21.7%	home_+3.5	90.8%	away_-3.5	9.2%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	65.0%	under_22.5	35.0%	over_24.5	52.6%
under_24.5	47.4%	over_26.5	40.2%	under_26.5	59.8%
over_28.5	29.0%	under_28.5	71.0%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	76.7%	under_10.5	23.3%	over_12.5	61.2%
under_12.5	38.8%	over_14.5	44.7%	under_14.5	55.3%

team_away

over_10.5	52.1%	under_10.5	47.9%	over_12.5	33.9%
under_12.5	66.1%	over_14.5	19.8%	under_14.5	80.2%

most

home	65.8%	draw	5.7%	away	28.5%

handicap

home_-4.5	40.9%	away_+4.5	59.1%	home_-2.5	53.5%
away_+2.5	46.5%	home_-0.5	65.8%	away_+0.5	34.2%
home_+0.5	71.5%	away_-0.5	28.5%	home_+2.5	81.3%
away_-2.5	18.7%	home_+4.5	88.6%	away_-4.5	11.4%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	74.1%	under_6.5	25.9%	over_7.5	62.3%
under_7.5	37.8%	over_8.5	49.8%	under_8.5	50.2%
over_9.5	37.9%	under_9.5	62.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	71.8%	under_3.5	28.2%	over_4.5	55.6%
under_4.5	44.4%	over_5.5	39.8%	under_5.5	60.2%

team_away

over_3.5	48.0%	under_3.5	52.0%	over_4.5	30.4%
under_4.5	69.6%	over_5.5	17.4%	under_5.5	82.6%

most

home	61.4%	draw	11.6%	away	27.0%

handicap

home_-2.5	36.4%	away_+2.5	63.6%	home_-0.5	61.4%
away_+0.5	38.6%	home_+0.5	73.0%	away_-0.5	27.0%
home_+2.5	89.5%	away_-2.5	10.5%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	69.7%	under_2.5	30.3%	over_3.5	48.5%
under_3.5	51.5%	over_4.5	29.3%	under_4.5	70.7%
over_5.5	15.6%	under_5.5	84.4%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	54.8%	under_1.5	45.2%	over_2.5	28.0%
under_2.5	72.0%

team_away

over_1.5	52.6%	under_1.5	47.4%	over_2.5	25.9%
under_2.5	74.1%

most

home	40.6%	draw	21.9%	away	37.5%

handicap

home_-1.5	21.7%	away_+1.5	78.4%	home_-0.5	40.6%
away_+0.5	59.4%	home_+0.5	62.5%	away_-0.5	37.5%
home_+1.5	80.7%	away_-1.5	19.3%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	68.5%	under_20.5	31.5%	over_22.5	54.2%
under_22.5	45.8%	over_24.5	39.9%	under_24.5	60.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	75.3%	under_9.5	24.7%	over_11.5	56.3%
under_11.5	43.8%	over_13.5	36.9%	under_13.5	63.1%

team_away

over_9.5	62.8%	under_9.5	37.2%	over_11.5	41.5%
under_11.5	58.5%	over_13.5	23.7%	under_13.5	76.3%

most

home	56.7%	draw	7.1%	away	36.2%

handicap

home_-3.5	35.1%	away_+3.5	64.9%	home_-0.5	56.7%
away_+0.5	43.3%	home_+2.5	76.5%	away_-2.5	23.5%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	13.9%	no	86.1%

home

yes	8.2%	no	91.8%

away

yes	6.2%	no	93.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Lens predictions · Lorient predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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