Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 5 Sep 2026

Bundesliga

Werder Bremen

DLLLL

Full time3-1Sat, 5 Sep 202614:30UK18°C · Rain

RB Leipzig

WLWLW

Model’s top convictions

82%

Over 1.5 goals

72%

Draw or RB Leipzig

61%

Both teams to score

Full time10 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Werder Bremen 3-1 RB Leipzig

✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card

10 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was RB Leipzig at 48.1%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 59.9% and it landed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 82.1% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 62.4% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 61.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 71.3% and it landed. We called Yes at 83.3% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 53.5% and it landed (9 corners). We called Under 3.5 at 53.2% and it landed (1 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 59.3% and it landed (31 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 68.0% and it landed (12 shots on target). We called No at 89.0% and it landed.

Match data	Werder Bremen	RB Leipzig
Goals, 1st half	1	0
Goals, 2nd half	2	1
Shots	12	19
Shots, 1st half	2	6
Shots, 2nd half	10	13
Shots on target	7	5
Corners	2	7
Yellow cards	1	0
Red cards	0	0
Fouls	13	8
Expected goals (xG)	0.85	1.58

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet

RB LeipzigWin probability

48.1%

Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals82.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.22

Draw or RB Leipzig71.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.39

Both teams to score61.4%Strong chancePays @ 1.63

Model read

▾

A measured edge to RB Leipzig: 48% is the model's line for this Bundesliga meeting on 5 September 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) No strong lean on goals (60% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 2) Recent form reads W1 D1 L4 for Werder Bremen against W4 D0 L2 for RB Leipzig. 3) History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 0 wins for Werder Bremen, 2 draws and 3 for RB Leipzig at 2.6 goals per match. For shots markets, Justin Njinmah is the obvious watch at 0.9 on target per 90 in recent data. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners45.7%@ 2.19

Over 10.5 corners35.6%@ 2.81

Medium risk

Over 2.5 goals59.9%@ 1.67

Over 8.5 corners56.6%@ 1.77

Werder Bremen or draw51.9%@ 1.93

Random finds

1-1 correct score11.1%@ 9.02

1-2 correct score9.4%@ 10.64

0-1 correct score7.5%@ 13.35

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Werder Bremen

28.1%

Draw

23.8%

RB Leipzig

48.1%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.582.1%

High probability

Over 2.559.9%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes61.4%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.556.6%

Good chance

Over 9.545.7%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.535.6%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.8%

Low chance

Most cornersWerder Bremen56.9%RB Leipzig32.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.570.8%

Strong chance

Over 24.559.3%

Good chance

Over 26.547.2%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.535.7%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.582.1%2.559.9%3.5·4.5·

Our pre-match focusOver 1.582.1%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

Werder BremenDLLLL

RB LeipzigWLWLW

Last 5 meetings: Werder Bremen 0 · 2 draws · RB Leipzig 3 · 2.6 goals/game.

2026-04-04Werder Bremen 1-2 RB Leipzig

2025-11-23RB Leipzig 2-0 Werder Bremen

2025-05-10Werder Bremen 0-0 RB Leipzig

2025-01-12RB Leipzig 4-2 Werder Bremen

2024-05-11RB Leipzig 1-1 Werder Bremen

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Werder Bremen

RB Leipzig

League position#15 of 18#4 of 18

Record W-D-L0-0-11-0-0

Current streakL1W1

Red cards this season00

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Justin NjinmahWerder Bremen · key player

To score11.2%

@ 8.93

1+ on target38.2%

@ 2.62

2+ shots47.1%

@ 2.12

Shots/90 2.93SoT/90 0.89Goals/90 0.22

Conrad HarderRB Leipzig · key player

To score9.4%

@ 10.64

1+ on target39.3%

@ 2.54

2+ shots43.1%

@ 2.32

Shots/90 4.44SoT/90 1.51Goals/90 0.3

Niclas FüllkrugWerder Bremen · in form

To score10.6%

@ 9.43

1+ on target30.0%

@ 3.33

2+ shots23.9%

@ 4.18

Shots/90 1.99SoT/90 0.76Goals/90 0.24

Christopher NkunkuRB Leipzig · in form

To score15.9%

@ 6.29

1+ on target38.2%

@ 2.62

2+ shots25.7%

@ 3.89

Shots/90 2.26SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.4

ChukiWerder Bremen · in form

To score11.1%

@ 9.01

1+ on target33.7%

@ 2.97

2+ shots26.5%

@ 3.77

Shots/90 1.78SoT/90 0.73Goals/90 0.21

Johan BakayokoRB Leipzig · in form

To score8.6%

@ 11.63

1+ on target33.6%

@ 2.98

2+ shots33.1%

@ 3.02

Shots/90 2.77SoT/90 0.96Goals/90 0.21

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Werder Bremen win3.56

Draw4.13

RB Leipzig win2.10

Both teams to score1.63

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.05

Over 1.5 goals1.22

Over 2.5 goals1.67

Over 3.5 goals2.66

Werder Bremen most3.56

RB Leipzig most2.10

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.41

Over 8.5 corners1.70

Over 9.5 corners2.15

Over 10.5 corners2.86

Werder Bremen most1.75

RB Leipzig most3.08

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.46

Over 3.5 cards2.13

Over 4.5 cards3.59

Over 5.5 cards6.87

Werder Bremen most2.48

RB Leipzig most2.67

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.27

Over 7.5 SoT1.47

Over 8.5 SoT1.78

Over 9.5 SoT2.25

Werder Bremen most1.98

RB Leipzig most2.66

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.41

Over 24.5 shots1.69

Over 26.5 shots2.12

Over 28.5 shots2.80

Werder Bremen most1.64

RB Leipzig most3.01

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls2.21

Over 22.5 fouls2.99

Over 24.5 fouls4.26

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5	78.6%	Over 7.5	68.0%	Over 8.5	56.2%	Over 9.5	44.5%
Most: Werder Bremen	50.5%	Most: RB Leipzig	37.6%
Werder Bremen Over 4.2	52.6%	RB Leipzig Over 4.2	43.3%

Cards

Over 2.5	68.3%	Over 3.5	46.8%	Over 4.5	27.9%
Most: Werder Bremen	40.4%	Most: RB Leipzig	37.4%
Werder Bremen Over 1.8	53.6%	RB Leipzig Over 1.8	51.5%

Werder Bremen: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Justin Njinmah	2.93	0.89	0.22	38.2%	47.1%	11.2%
Niclas Füllkrug	1.99	0.76	0.24	30.0%	23.9%	10.6%
Chuki	1.78	0.73	0.21	33.7%	26.5%	11.1%
Marco Grüll	1.96	0.66	0.27	32.7%	32.8%	14.9%
Eren Sami Dinkci	1.47	0.41	0.14	23.0%	24.1%	8.5%

RB Leipzig: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Conrad Harder	4.44	1.51	0.3	39.3%	43.1%	9.4%
Christopher Nkunku	2.26	1.11	0.4	38.2%	25.7%	15.9%
Johan Bakayoko	2.77	0.96	0.21	33.6%	33.1%	8.6%
Brajan Gruda	2.01	0.93	0.2	35.3%	24.3%	8.9%
Tidiam Gomis	3.37	0.84	0.17	16.3%	16.1%	3.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Werder Bremen clean sheet	16.8%
RB Leipzig clean sheet	26.4%
Werder Bremen win to nil	11.8%
RB Leipzig win to nil	21.4%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	28.1%	draw	24.2%	away	47.7%

double_chance

1X	52.3%	12	75.8%	X2	71.9%

dnb

home	37.0%	away	62.9%

btts

yes	61.4%	no	38.6%

clean_sheet

home	16.9%	away	26.7%

win_to_nil

home	11.8%	away	21.7%

winning_margin

home_by_1	15.8%	home_by_2	8.1%	home_by_3plus	4.2%
away_by_1	21.4%	away_by_2	14.6%	away_by_3plus	11.7%

correct_score

0-0	5.0%	0-1	7.5%	0-2	7.1%
0-3	4.2%	0-4	1.9%	0-5	0.7%
1-0	5.4%	1-1	11.1%	1-2	9.4%
1-3	5.6%	1-4	2.5%	1-5	0.9%
2-0	3.9%	2-1	7.0%	2-2	6.2%
2-3	3.7%	2-4	1.6%	2-5	0.6%
3-0	1.7%	3-1	3.1%	3-2	2.7%
3-3	1.6%	3-4	0.7%	3-5	0.3%
4-0	0.6%	4-1	1.0%	4-2	0.9%
4-3	0.5%	4-4	0.2%	4-5	0.1%
5-0	0.2%	5-1	0.3%	5-2	0.2%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.1%	5-5	0.0%
other	1.2%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	11.1%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	95.0%	under_0.5	5.0%	over_1.5	82.1%
under_1.5	17.9%	over_2.5	59.9%	under_2.5	40.1%
over_3.5	37.6%	under_3.5	62.4%	over_4.5	20.2%
under_4.5	79.8%	over_5.5	9.5%	under_5.5	90.5%

odd_even

odd	48.8%	even	51.2%

team_home

over_0.5	73.3%	under_0.5	26.7%	over_1.5	38.1%
under_1.5	61.9%	over_2.5	14.9%	under_2.5	85.2%

team_away

over_0.5	83.1%	under_0.5	16.9%	over_1.5	53.1%
under_1.5	46.9%	over_2.5	26.4%	under_2.5	73.6%

most

home	28.1%	draw	24.2%	away	47.7%

handicap

home_-2.5	4.2%	away_+2.5	95.8%	home_-1.5	12.3%
away_+1.5	87.7%	home_-0.5	28.1%	away_+0.5	71.9%
home_+0.5	52.3%	away_-0.5	47.7%	home_+1.5	73.7%
away_-1.5	26.3%	home_+2.5	88.3%	away_-2.5	11.7%

total_exact

exact_0	5.0%	exact_1	12.9%	exact_2	22.2%
exact_3	22.4%	exact_4	17.3%	exact_5	10.8%
exact_6	5.6%	exact_7plus	3.9%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	16.0%	draw	39.2%	away	44.9%

total

over_0.5	71.3%	under_0.5	28.7%	over_1.5	35.5%
under_1.5	64.5%	over_2.5	13.1%	under_2.5	86.9%

btts

yes	18.6%	no	81.4%

total_exact

exact_0	28.7%	exact_1	35.8%	exact_2	22.4%
exact_3	9.3%	exact_4plus	3.8%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	31.5%	draw	33.0%	away	35.5%

total

over_0.5	83.3%	under_0.5	16.7%	over_1.5	53.4%
under_1.5	46.6%	over_2.5	26.6%	under_2.5	73.4%

btts

yes	34.9%	no	65.1%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	11.0%	H/D	3.2%	H/A	1.8%
D/H	12.3%	D/D	12.9%	D/A	13.9%
A/H	3.4%	A/D	7.1%	A/A	34.4%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	70.7%	under_7.5	29.3%	over_8.5	58.8%
under_8.5	41.2%	over_9.5	46.5%	under_9.5	53.5%
over_10.5	35.0%	under_10.5	65.0%	over_11.5	25.1%
under_11.5	75.0%	over_12.5	17.1%	under_12.5	82.9%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	73.5%	under_3.5	26.5%	over_4.5	58.2%
under_4.5	41.8%	over_5.5	43.0%	under_5.5	57.0%

team_away

over_3.5	56.7%	under_3.5	43.3%	over_4.5	39.4%
under_4.5	60.6%	over_5.5	25.1%	under_5.5	74.9%

most

home	57.0%	draw	10.6%	away	32.4%

handicap

home_-3.5	25.7%	away_+3.5	74.3%	home_-1.5	45.9%
away_+1.5	54.1%	home_-0.5	57.0%	away_+0.5	43.0%
home_+0.5	67.6%	away_-0.5	32.4%	home_+1.5	76.9%
away_-1.5	23.1%	home_+3.5	90.1%	away_-3.5	9.9%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	70.8%	under_22.5	29.2%	over_24.5	59.3%
under_24.5	40.7%	over_26.5	47.2%	under_26.5	52.8%
over_28.5	35.7%	under_28.5	64.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	77.4%	under_10.5	22.6%	over_12.5	62.5%
under_12.5	37.5%	over_14.5	46.5%	under_14.5	53.5%

team_away

over_10.5	60.2%	under_10.5	39.8%	over_12.5	42.5%
under_12.5	57.5%	over_14.5	27.1%	under_14.5	72.9%

most

home	61.1%	draw	5.7%	away	33.2%

handicap

home_-4.5	37.1%	away_+4.5	62.9%	home_-2.5	49.1%
away_+2.5	50.9%	home_-0.5	61.1%	away_+0.5	38.9%
home_+0.5	66.8%	away_-0.5	33.2%	home_+2.5	77.0%
away_-2.5	23.0%	home_+4.5	85.2%	away_-4.5	14.8%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	78.6%	under_6.5	21.4%	over_7.5	68.0%
under_7.5	32.0%	over_8.5	56.3%	under_8.5	43.8%
over_9.5	44.5%	under_9.5	55.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	69.1%	under_3.5	31.0%	over_4.5	52.6%
under_4.5	47.4%	over_5.5	37.1%	under_5.5	62.9%

team_away

over_3.5	60.8%	under_3.5	39.2%	over_4.5	43.3%
under_4.5	56.7%	over_5.5	28.3%	under_5.5	71.7%

most

home	50.5%	draw	12.0%	away	37.6%

handicap

home_-2.5	27.7%	away_+2.5	72.3%	home_-0.5	50.5%
away_+0.5	49.5%	home_+0.5	62.4%	away_-0.5	37.6%
home_+2.5	82.2%	away_-2.5	17.8%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	68.3%	under_2.5	31.7%	over_3.5	46.8%
under_3.5	53.2%	over_4.5	27.9%	under_4.5	72.1%
over_5.5	14.5%	under_5.5	85.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	53.6%	under_1.5	46.4%	over_2.5	26.9%
under_2.5	73.1%

team_away

over_1.5	51.5%	under_1.5	48.5%	over_2.5	25.0%
under_2.5	75.0%

most

home	40.4%	draw	22.2%	away	37.4%

handicap

home_-1.5	21.3%	away_+1.5	78.7%	home_-0.5	40.4%
away_+0.5	59.6%	home_+0.5	62.6%	away_-0.5	37.4%
home_+1.5	80.9%	away_-1.5	19.1%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	45.3%	under_20.5	54.7%	over_22.5	33.5%
under_22.5	66.5%	over_24.5	23.5%	under_24.5	76.5%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	51.1%	under_9.5	48.9%	over_11.5	34.0%
under_11.5	66.0%	over_13.5	20.7%	under_13.5	79.3%

team_away

over_9.5	51.5%	under_9.5	48.5%	over_11.5	34.4%
under_11.5	65.6%	over_13.5	21.1%	under_13.5	78.9%

most

home	46.4%	draw	6.6%	away	47.0%

handicap

home_-3.5	28.0%	away_+3.5	72.1%	home_-0.5	46.4%
away_+0.5	53.6%	home_+2.5	65.8%	away_-2.5	34.3%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	11.0%	no	89.0%

home

yes	4.1%	no	95.9%

away

yes	7.2%	no	92.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Werder Bremen predictions · RB Leipzig predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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