Cadiz vs Valladolid prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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Cadiz vs Valladolid: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Segunda División
Cadiz

DWLDD

Full time1-1Sun, 30 Aug 202618:00UK
Valladolid

LLLLL

Model’s top convictions

71%

Cadiz or draw

67%

Over 1.5 goals

61%

Under 2.5 goals

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Cadiz 1-1 Valladolid
✕ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✕ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
8 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Cadiz at 41.2%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 60.5% and it landed (2 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 66.7% and it landed (2 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 80.7% and it landed (2 goals). We called No at 54.0% and it missed. We called Yes at 62.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 72.9% and it missed. We called Under 9.5 at 54.9% and it missed (10 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 74.0% and it landed (8 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 51.6% and it landed (24 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 57.3% and it landed (8 shots on target). We called No at 84.9% and it landed.

Match data Cadiz Valladolid
Goals, 1st half 1 1
Goals, 2nd half 0 0
Shots 10 14
Shots on target 2 6
Corners 4 6
Yellow cards 4 4
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 16 12

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
CadizWin probability
41.2%
Top 3 convictions

Cadiz or draw70.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.41
Over 1.5 goals66.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.50
Under 2.5 goals60.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.65

Model read

▾

"41% on Cadiz is a measurement, not a promise." A measured edge to Cadiz: 41% is the model's line for this Segunda División meeting on 30 August 2026. Our number sits above the market's 38% for Cadiz. The gap itself is information. This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 39% with both teams to score at 46%. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 1 wins for Cadiz, 2 draws and 2 for Valladolid, averaging 1.4 goals a game. The run in: Cadiz arrive W1 D3 L2, Valladolid W1 D0 L5. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.014 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners44.6%@ 2.24
Over 2.5 goals39.4%@ 2.54
Over 10.5 corners34.3%@ 2.92
Medium risk

Draw or Valladolid58.7%@ 1.70
Over 8.5 corners55.7%@ 1.80
Not both teams to score54.0%@ 1.85
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.8%@ 7.24
1-0 correct score12.4%@ 8.08
0-0 correct score11.1%@ 9.05

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Cadiz

41.2%+3.5%

Draw

29.6%-1.5%

Valladolid

29.1%-2.0%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.014 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.566.7%

Strong chance

Over 2.539.4%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes46.0%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.555.7%

Good chance

Over 9.544.6%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.534.3%

Toss-up

Over 11.525.4%

Low chance

Most cornersCadiz52.2%Valladolid36.4%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.4%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.536.0%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.2%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.566.7%2.539.4%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.566.7%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

CadizDWLDD
ValladolidLLLLL

Last 5 meetings: Cadiz 1 · 2 draws · Valladolid 2 · 1.4 goals/game.

2026-03-31Valladolid 3-0 Cadiz
2025-11-09Cadiz 0-0 Valladolid
2018-04-28Valladolid 1-1 Cadiz
2017-11-25Cadiz 1-0 Valladolid
2017-06-10Valladolid 1-0 Cadiz

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

CadizValladolid
League position#15 of 22#21 of 22
Record W-D-L0-2-00-0-2
Current streakD2L2
Record, home vs away0-1-00-0-2
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.27 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 41% · BTTS in 41%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Cadiz win2.502.43
Draw3.003.38
Valladolid win3.003.44
Over 2.5 goals2.402.54
Under 2.5 goals1.531.65

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Cadiz win2.42
Draw3.37
Valladolid win3.43
Both teams to score2.17

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.12
Over 1.5 goals1.50
Over 2.5 goals2.53
Over 3.5 goals5.17
Cadiz most2.42
Valladolid most3.43

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.43
Over 8.5 corners1.74
Over 9.5 corners2.22
Over 10.5 corners2.98
Cadiz most1.91
Valladolid most2.74

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.14
Over 3.5 cards1.35
Over 4.5 cards1.77
Over 5.5 cards2.56
Cadiz most2.30
Valladolid most2.62

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.42
Over 7.5 SoT1.74
Over 8.5 SoT2.27
Over 9.5 SoT3.15
Cadiz most2.00
Valladolid most2.74

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.63
Over 24.5 shots2.06
Over 26.5 shots2.78
Over 28.5 shots3.97
Cadiz most1.66
Valladolid most2.98

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.17
Over 22.5 fouls1.32
Over 24.5 fouls1.57
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 70.5% Over 7.5 57.3% Over 8.5 44.0% Over 9.5 31.7%
Most: Cadiz 50.0% Most: Valladolid 36.5%
Cadiz Over 4.2 44.2% Valladolid Over 4.2 34.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 87.8% Over 3.5 74.0% Over 4.5 56.6%
Most: Cadiz 43.5% Most: Valladolid 38.2%
Cadiz Over 1.8 73.2% Valladolid Over 1.8 70.1%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Cadiz clean sheet 36.4%
Valladolid clean sheet 28.5%
Cadiz win to nil 25.3%
Valladolid win to nil 17.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 41.2% draw 29.7% away 29.1%
double_chance
1X 70.9% 12 70.4% X2 58.8%
dnb
home 58.6% away 41.4%
btts
yes 46.1% no 53.9%
clean_sheet
home 36.4% away 28.6%
win_to_nil
home 25.4% away 17.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.6% home_by_2 12.2% home_by_3plus 6.5%
away_by_1 18.0% away_by_2 7.9% away_by_3plus 3.2%
correct_score
0-0 11.1% 0-1 9.8% 0-2 5.3%
0-3 1.8% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 12.4% 1-1 13.8% 1-2 6.6%
1-3 2.2% 1-4 0.6% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 8.2% 2-1 8.2% 2-2 4.2%
2-3 1.4% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 3.4% 3-1 3.5% 3-2 1.7%
3-3 0.6% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.1% 4-1 1.1% 4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.3% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 88.9% under_0.5 11.1% over_1.5 66.7%
under_1.5 33.3% over_2.5 39.5% under_2.5 60.6%
over_3.5 19.3% under_3.5 80.7% over_4.5 8.0%
under_4.5 92.0% over_5.5 2.8% under_5.5 97.2%
odd_even
odd 48.1% even 51.9%
team_home
over_0.5 71.4% under_0.5 28.6% over_1.5 35.7%
under_1.5 64.3% over_2.5 13.3% under_2.5 86.7%
team_away
over_0.5 63.6% under_0.5 36.4% over_1.5 26.8%
under_1.5 73.2% over_2.5 8.2% under_2.5 91.8%
most
home 41.2% draw 29.7% away 29.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.5% away_+2.5 93.5% home_-1.5 18.7%
away_+1.5 81.3% home_-0.5 41.2% away_+0.5 58.8%
home_+0.5 70.9% away_-0.5 29.1% home_+1.5 88.9%
away_-1.5 11.1% home_+2.5 96.9% away_-2.5 3.2%
total_exact
exact_0 11.1% exact_1 22.2% exact_2 27.3%
exact_3 20.1% exact_4 11.4% exact_5 5.1%
exact_6 2.0% exact_7plus 0.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.7% draw 46.8% away 26.5%
total
over_0.5 62.9% under_0.5 37.1% over_1.5 26.1%
under_1.5 73.9% over_2.5 7.9% under_2.5 92.1%
btts
yes 15.3% no 84.7%
total_exact
exact_0 37.1% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.3%
exact_3 6.0% exact_4plus 1.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 40.3% draw 39.1% away 20.6%
total
over_0.5 72.9% under_0.5 27.1% over_1.5 37.6%
under_1.5 62.5% over_2.5 14.4% under_2.5 85.6%
btts
yes 21.7% no 78.3%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 22.2% H/D 3.6% H/A 1.0%
D/H 18.9% D/D 18.3% D/A 9.7%
A/H 3.0% A/D 6.1% A/A 17.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.8% under_7.5 30.2% over_8.5 57.5%
under_8.5 42.5% over_9.5 45.1% under_9.5 54.9%
over_10.5 33.5% under_10.5 66.5% over_11.5 23.7%
under_11.5 76.3% over_12.5 15.9% under_12.5 84.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 70.4% under_3.5 29.6% over_4.5 54.3%
under_4.5 45.7% over_5.5 38.7% under_5.5 61.3%
team_away
over_3.5 59.7% under_3.5 40.3% over_4.5 42.2%
under_4.5 57.8% over_5.5 27.4% under_5.5 72.6%
most
home 52.3% draw 11.2% away 36.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.4% away_+3.5 78.6% home_-1.5 41.0%
away_+1.5 59.0% home_-0.5 52.3% away_+0.5 47.7%
home_+0.5 63.5% away_-0.5 36.5% home_+1.5 73.6%
away_-1.5 26.4% home_+3.5 88.4% away_-3.5 11.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.4% under_22.5 38.6% over_24.5 48.4%
under_24.5 51.6% over_26.5 36.0% under_26.5 64.0%
over_28.5 25.2% under_28.5 74.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 71.7% under_10.5 28.3% over_12.5 54.6%
under_12.5 45.5% over_14.5 37.7% under_14.5 62.3%
team_away
over_10.5 53.9% under_10.5 46.1% over_12.5 35.3%
under_12.5 64.7% over_14.5 20.7% under_14.5 79.3%
most
home 60.2% draw 6.2% away 33.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.5% away_+4.5 65.5% home_-2.5 47.2%
away_+2.5 52.8% home_-0.5 60.2% away_+0.5 39.8%
home_+0.5 66.4% away_-0.5 33.6% home_+2.5 77.5%
away_-2.5 22.5% home_+4.5 86.1% away_-4.5 13.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 70.5% under_6.5 29.5% over_7.5 57.3%
under_7.5 42.7% over_8.5 44.0% under_8.5 56.0%
over_9.5 31.8% under_9.5 68.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 62.6% under_3.5 37.4% over_4.5 44.2%
under_4.5 55.8% over_5.5 28.1% under_5.5 71.9%
team_away
over_3.5 53.3% under_3.5 46.7% over_4.5 34.5%
under_4.5 65.5% over_5.5 20.0% under_5.5 80.0%
most
home 50.0% draw 13.5% away 36.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 24.8% away_+2.5 75.3% home_-0.5 50.0%
away_+0.5 50.0% home_+0.5 63.5% away_-0.5 36.5%
home_+2.5 84.8% away_-2.5 15.2%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 87.9% under_2.5 12.2% over_3.5 74.0%
under_3.5 26.0% over_4.5 56.6% under_4.5 43.4%
over_5.5 39.1% under_5.5 60.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 73.2% under_1.5 26.8% over_2.5 48.0%
under_2.5 52.0%
team_away
over_1.5 70.1% under_1.5 29.9% over_2.5 44.1%
under_2.5 55.9%
most
home 43.5% draw 18.2% away 38.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 26.7% away_+1.5 73.3% home_-0.5 43.5%
away_+0.5 56.5% home_+0.5 61.8% away_-0.5 38.2%
home_+1.5 77.6% away_-1.5 22.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 85.5% under_20.5 14.5% over_22.5 75.8%
under_22.5 24.2% over_24.5 63.8% under_24.5 36.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 81.6% under_9.5 18.4% over_11.5 65.2%
under_11.5 34.8% over_13.5 46.6% under_13.5 53.4%
team_away
over_9.5 82.1% under_9.5 17.9% over_11.5 65.9%
under_11.5 34.1% over_13.5 47.3% under_13.5 52.7%
most
home 46.1% draw 6.7% away 47.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.5% away_+3.5 72.5% home_-0.5 46.1%
away_+0.5 53.9% home_+2.5 65.7% away_-2.5 34.3%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 15.1% no 84.9%
home
yes 7.0% no 93.1%
away
yes 8.8% no 91.2%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Cadiz predictions · Valladolid predictions · Segunda División

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Segunda DivisiónCadizValladolidTrack record