Shrewsbury vs Salford: model prediction
League TwoDraw or Salford
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Salford at 44.0%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 57.9% and it landed (1 goals). We called No at 52.2% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"44% on Salford is a measurement, not a promise." The model leans Salford at 44% when Shrewsbury host Salford in the League Two on 29 August 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Salford higher (50%) than our model does. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 42% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 48%. Head to head, the last 2 meetings gave 1 wins for Shrewsbury, 0 draws and 1 for Salford, averaging 3.5 goals a game. Form guide over the last six: Shrewsbury W1 D2 L3, Salford W2 D2 L2. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.032 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
27.3%+3.7%
28.7%+2.9%
44.0%-6.5%
conservative EV -0.032 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Toss-up
Shots markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Shrewsbury 1 · 0 draws · Salford 1 · 3.5 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.42 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 46% · BTTS in 46%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 62.5% | Over 7.5 | 49.5% | Over 8.5 | 37.2% | Over 9.5 | 26.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Shrewsbury | 46.8% | Most: Salford | 39.9% | ||||
| Shrewsbury Over 4.2 | 37.0% | Salford Over 4.2 | 32.2% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 72.1% | Over 3.5 | 51.4% | Over 4.5 | 32.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Shrewsbury | 30.9% | Most: Salford | 48.1% | ||
| Shrewsbury Over 1.8 | 49.2% | Salford Over 1.8 | 61.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Shrewsbury clean sheet | 25.8% |
|---|---|
| Salford clean sheet | 36.3% |
| Shrewsbury win to nil | 15.7% |
| Salford win to nil | 26.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 27.3% | draw | 28.7% | away | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 56.0% | 12 | 71.4% | X2 | 72.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 38.3% | away | 61.7% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 47.8% | no | 52.2% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 25.8% | away | 36.4% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 15.8% | away | 26.4% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 17.0% | home_by_2 | 7.4% | home_by_3plus | 2.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 23.0% | away_by_2 | 13.3% | away_by_3plus | 7.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 10.0% | 0-1 | 12.1% | 0-2 | 8.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.9% | 0-4 | 1.3% | 0-5 | 0.4% |
| 1-0 | 8.8% | 1-1 | 13.5% | 1-2 | 8.7% |
| 1-3 | 3.9% | 1-4 | 1.3% | 1-5 | 0.4% |
| 2-0 | 4.8% | 2-1 | 6.5% | 2-2 | 4.4% |
| 2-3 | 2.0% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 1.6% | 3-1 | 2.2% | 3-2 | 1.5% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.4% | 4-1 | 0.6% | 4-2 | 0.4% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.1% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 90.0% | under_0.5 | 10.0% | over_1.5 | 69.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 31.0% | over_2.5 | 42.1% | under_2.5 | 57.9% |
| over_3.5 | 21.4% | under_3.5 | 78.6% | over_4.5 | 9.2% |
| under_4.5 | 90.8% | over_5.5 | 3.4% | under_5.5 | 96.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.3% | even | 51.7% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 63.6% | under_0.5 | 36.4% | over_1.5 | 26.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 73.2% | over_2.5 | 8.3% | under_2.5 | 91.7% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 74.2% | under_0.5 | 25.8% | over_1.5 | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 60.8% | over_2.5 | 15.6% | under_2.5 | 84.4% |
most
| home | 27.3% | draw | 28.7% | away | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 2.9% | away_+2.5 | 97.1% | home_-1.5 | 10.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 89.7% | home_-0.5 | 27.3% | away_+0.5 | 72.7% |
| home_+0.5 | 56.0% | away_-0.5 | 44.0% | home_+1.5 | 79.0% |
| away_-1.5 | 21.0% | home_+2.5 | 92.3% | away_-2.5 | 7.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 10.0% | exact_1 | 20.9% | exact_2 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.7% | exact_4 | 12.3% | exact_5 | 5.8% |
| exact_6 | 2.3% | exact_7plus | 1.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 22.4% | draw | 46.9% | away | 30.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 62.5% | under_0.5 | 37.5% | over_1.5 | 25.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 74.3% | over_2.5 | 7.7% | under_2.5 | 92.3% |
btts
| yes | 14.8% | no | 85.2% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 37.5% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 18.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.9% | exact_4plus | 1.8% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 22.5% | draw | 38.6% | away | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 74.0% | under_0.5 | 26.0% | over_1.5 | 39.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 61.0% | over_2.5 | 15.4% | under_2.5 | 84.6% |
btts
| yes | 23.1% | no | 76.9% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 14.9% | H/D | 5.1% | H/A | 2.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 10.6% | D/D | 18.1% | D/A | 18.2% |
| A/H | 1.3% | A/D | 4.3% | A/A | 25.1% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 74.0% | under_7.5 | 26.0% | over_8.5 | 62.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 37.1% | over_9.5 | 51.0% | under_9.5 | 49.0% |
| over_10.5 | 39.6% | under_10.5 | 60.4% | over_11.5 | 29.3% |
| under_11.5 | 70.7% | over_12.5 | 20.8% | under_12.5 | 79.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 72.7% | under_3.5 | 27.3% | over_4.5 | 57.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 42.7% | over_5.5 | 42.1% | under_5.5 | 57.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 63.7% | under_3.5 | 36.3% | over_4.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.2% | over_5.5 | 31.8% | under_5.5 | 68.2% |
most
| home | 51.6% | draw | 10.8% | away | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 22.0% | away_+3.5 | 78.0% | home_-1.5 | 40.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 59.2% | home_-0.5 | 51.6% | away_+0.5 | 48.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 62.4% | away_-0.5 | 37.6% | home_+1.5 | 72.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 27.8% | home_+3.5 | 87.1% | away_-3.5 | 12.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 58.5% | under_22.5 | 41.5% | over_24.5 | 45.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 54.3% | over_26.5 | 33.8% | under_26.5 | 66.2% |
| over_28.5 | 23.5% | under_28.5 | 76.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 66.8% | under_10.5 | 33.2% | over_12.5 | 49.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 50.7% | over_14.5 | 33.1% | under_14.5 | 66.9% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 55.2% | under_10.5 | 44.8% | over_12.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 63.0% | over_14.5 | 22.3% | under_14.5 | 77.7% |
most
| home | 55.5% | draw | 6.3% | away | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 30.4% | away_+4.5 | 69.6% | home_-2.5 | 42.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 57.5% | home_-0.5 | 55.5% | away_+0.5 | 44.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.8% | away_-0.5 | 38.2% | home_+2.5 | 73.4% |
| away_-2.5 | 26.6% | home_+4.5 | 82.9% | away_-4.5 | 17.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 62.5% | under_6.5 | 37.5% | over_7.5 | 49.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 50.5% | over_8.5 | 37.2% | under_8.5 | 62.8% |
| over_9.5 | 26.6% | under_9.5 | 73.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 54.3% | under_3.5 | 45.8% | over_4.5 | 37.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 63.0% | over_5.5 | 23.2% | under_5.5 | 76.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 49.3% | under_3.5 | 50.7% | over_4.5 | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 67.8% | over_5.5 | 19.3% | under_5.5 | 80.7% |
most
| home | 46.8% | draw | 13.3% | away | 40.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 23.0% | away_+2.5 | 77.1% | home_-0.5 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 53.2% | home_+0.5 | 60.1% | away_-0.5 | 40.0% |
| home_+2.5 | 82.0% | away_-2.5 | 18.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 72.1% | under_2.5 | 27.9% | over_3.5 | 51.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 48.6% | over_4.5 | 32.0% | under_4.5 | 68.0% |
| over_5.5 | 17.6% | under_5.5 | 82.4% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 49.2% | under_1.5 | 50.8% | over_2.5 | 23.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 77.0% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 61.7% | under_1.5 | 38.3% | over_2.5 | 34.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 65.3% |
most
| home | 30.9% | draw | 21.0% | away | 48.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 15.0% | away_+1.5 | 85.0% | home_-0.5 | 30.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 69.1% | home_+0.5 | 51.9% | away_-0.5 | 48.1% |
| home_+1.5 | 72.0% | away_-1.5 | 28.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 72.5% | under_20.5 | 27.6% | over_22.5 | 58.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 42.1% | over_24.5 | 42.8% | under_24.5 | 57.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 68.8% | under_9.5 | 31.2% | over_11.5 | 46.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 53.1% | over_13.5 | 27.1% | under_13.5 | 72.9% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 76.5% | under_9.5 | 23.5% | over_11.5 | 56.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 43.6% | over_13.5 | 35.8% | under_13.5 | 64.2% |
most
| home | 39.5% | draw | 7.6% | away | 52.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 19.9% | away_+3.5 | 80.1% | home_-0.5 | 39.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.5% | home_+2.5 | 62.3% | away_-2.5 | 37.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 7.8% | no | 92.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 2.5% | no | 97.5% |
|---|
away
| yes | 5.4% | no | 94.6% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Shrewsbury predictions · Salford predictions · League Two
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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