St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Pro League
St. Gilloise

LDWWD

Full time3-0Sun, 30 Aug 202617:30UK
Anderlecht

DWLWL

Model’s top convictions

85%

St. Gilloise or draw

77%

Over 1.5 goals

63%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time10 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

St. Gilloise 3-0 Anderlecht
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
11 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was St. Gilloise at 62.5%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 51.8% and it landed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 76.5% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 70.3% and it landed (3 goals). We called No at 51.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 73.9% and it landed. We called Yes at 75.5% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 53.6% and it missed (7 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 64.1% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 55.9% and it landed (27 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 64.9% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 76.2% and it landed.

Match data St. Gilloise Anderlecht
Goals, 1st half 2 0
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 15 12
Shots on target 7 2
Corners 4 3
Yellow cards 2 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 11 14

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
St. GilloiseWin probability
62.5%
Top 3 convictions

St. Gilloise or draw84.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.18
Over 1.5 goals76.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.31
Over 8.5 corners62.7%Strong chancePays @ 1.59

Model read

▾

St. Gilloise go into this Pro League meeting with Anderlecht on 30 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 62%. The numbers that frame it: • Notably, the model is warmer on St. Gilloise than the market (57%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. • Totals sit close to the fence: 52% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 49%. • Recent form reads W3 D2 L1 for St. Gilloise against W2 D2 L2 for Anderlecht. • History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 4 wins for St. Gilloise, 0 draws and 1 for Anderlecht at 2.8 goals per match. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.004 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners41.6%@ 2.40
Draw or Anderlecht37.5%@ 2.67
Over 11.5 corners32.1%@ 3.12
Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners52.0%@ 1.92
Over 2.5 goals51.9%@ 1.93
Not both teams to score51.4%@ 1.95
Random finds

2-0 correct score11.8%@ 8.49
1-0 correct score11.8%@ 8.50
1-1 correct score10.7%@ 9.35

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

St. Gilloise

62.5%+5.7%

Draw

22.4%-2.1%

Anderlecht

15.1%-3.6%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.004 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.576.5%

Strong chance

Over 2.551.9%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes48.6%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.562.7%

Strong chance

Over 9.552.0%

Good chance

Over 10.541.6%

Toss-up

Over 11.532.1%

Toss-up

Most cornersSt. Gilloise57.3%Anderlecht32.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.567.6%

Strong chance

Over 24.555.9%

Good chance

Over 26.544.0%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.532.8%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.576.5%2.551.9%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.576.5%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

St. GilloiseLDWWD
AnderlechtDWLWL

Last 5 meetings: St. Gilloise 4 · 0 draws · Anderlecht 1 · 2.8 goals/game.

2026-05-24St. Gilloise 5-1 Anderlecht
2026-04-26Anderlecht 1-3 St. Gilloise
2025-11-30Anderlecht 1-0 St. Gilloise
2025-08-31St. Gilloise 2-0 Anderlecht
2025-05-10Anderlecht 0-1 St. Gilloise

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

St. GilloiseAnderlecht
League position#7 of 18#10 of 18
Record W-D-L1-1-01-0-1
Current streakD1L1
Record, home vs away0-1-00-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.29 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
St. Gilloise win1.671.60
Draw3.704.46
Anderlecht win4.756.62
Over 2.5 goals1.751.93
Under 2.5 goals2.052.08

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

St. Gilloise win1.60
Draw4.45
Anderlecht win6.64
Both teams to score2.06

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.31
Over 2.5 goals1.93
Over 3.5 goals3.37
St. Gilloise most1.60
Anderlecht most6.64

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.31
Over 8.5 corners1.53
Over 9.5 corners1.87
Over 10.5 corners2.40
St. Gilloise most1.74
Anderlecht most3.10

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.23
Over 3.5 cards1.56
Over 4.5 cards2.21
Over 5.5 cards3.47
St. Gilloise most2.88
Anderlecht most2.16

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.31
Over 7.5 SoT1.54
Over 8.5 SoT1.89
Over 9.5 SoT2.42
St. Gilloise most1.50
Anderlecht most4.37

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.48
Over 24.5 shots1.79
Over 26.5 shots2.27
Over 28.5 shots3.05
St. Gilloise most1.47
Anderlecht most3.76

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.50
Over 22.5 fouls1.90
Over 24.5 fouls2.58
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 76.1% Over 7.5 64.9% Over 8.5 52.9% Over 9.5 41.3%
Most: St. Gilloise 66.6% Most: Anderlecht 22.9%
St. Gilloise Over 4.2 60.9% Anderlecht Over 4.2 28.5%

Cards

Over 2.5 81.2% Over 3.5 64.1% Over 4.5 45.3%
Most: St. Gilloise 34.7% Most: Anderlecht 46.2%
St. Gilloise Over 1.8 60.3% Anderlecht Over 1.8 67.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

St. Gilloise clean sheet 43.0%
Anderlecht clean sheet 14.7%
St. Gilloise win to nil 36.1%
Anderlecht win to nil 7.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 62.5% draw 22.5% away 15.1%
double_chance
1X 84.9% 12 77.6% X2 37.5%
dnb
home 80.6% away 19.4%
btts
yes 48.6% no 51.4%
clean_sheet
home 43.6% away 14.7%
win_to_nil
home 36.7% away 7.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 24.5% home_by_2 19.4% home_by_3plus 18.6%
away_by_1 10.3% away_by_2 3.6% away_by_3plus 1.1%
correct_score
0-0 6.9% 0-1 4.8% 0-2 2.2%
0-3 0.6% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 11.8% 1-1 10.7% 1-2 4.2%
1-3 1.2% 1-4 0.2% 1-5 0.0%
2-0 11.8% 2-1 9.8% 2-2 4.1%
2-3 1.1% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 7.5% 3-1 6.3% 3-2 2.6%
3-3 0.7% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 3.6% 4-1 3.0% 4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 1.4% 5-1 1.2% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.4%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 0.0% p 11.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.1% under_0.5 6.9% over_1.5 76.5%
under_1.5 23.5% over_2.5 51.8% under_2.5 48.2%
over_3.5 29.7% under_3.5 70.3% over_4.5 14.5%
under_4.5 85.5% over_5.5 6.1% under_5.5 93.9%
odd_even
odd 48.8% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 85.3% under_0.5 14.7% over_1.5 57.2%
under_1.5 42.8% over_2.5 30.2% under_2.5 69.8%
team_away
over_0.5 56.4% under_0.5 43.6% over_1.5 20.2%
under_1.5 79.8% over_2.5 5.2% under_2.5 94.8%
most
home 62.5% draw 22.5% away 15.1%
handicap
home_-2.5 18.6% away_+2.5 81.4% home_-1.5 38.0%
away_+1.5 62.0% home_-0.5 62.5% away_+0.5 37.5%
home_+0.5 84.9% away_-0.5 15.1% home_+1.5 95.3%
away_-1.5 4.8% home_+2.5 98.9% away_-2.5 1.1%
total_exact
exact_0 6.9% exact_1 16.6% exact_2 24.7%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 15.2% exact_5 8.4%
exact_6 3.8% exact_7plus 2.2%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 52.4% draw 35.6% away 12.0%
total
over_0.5 73.9% under_0.5 26.1% over_1.5 38.9%
under_1.5 61.1% over_2.5 15.3% under_2.5 84.7%
btts
yes 18.0% no 82.0%
total_exact
exact_0 26.1% exact_1 35.1% exact_2 23.5%
exact_3 10.5% exact_4plus 4.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 46.1% draw 36.4% away 17.5%
total
over_0.5 75.5% under_0.5 24.5% over_1.5 41.1%
under_1.5 58.9% over_2.5 16.8% under_2.5 83.2%
btts
yes 22.6% no 77.4%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 46.4% H/D 4.8% H/A 1.2%
D/H 16.4% D/D 13.0% D/A 6.2%
A/H 1.9% A/D 3.1% A/A 7.0%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 76.5% under_7.5 23.5% over_8.5 65.5%
under_8.5 34.5% over_9.5 53.6% under_9.5 46.5%
over_10.5 41.7% under_10.5 58.3% over_11.5 30.9%
under_11.5 69.1% over_12.5 21.9% under_12.5 78.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 77.4% under_3.5 22.6% over_4.5 63.0%
under_4.5 37.0% over_5.5 47.8% under_5.5 52.2%
team_away
over_3.5 61.3% under_3.5 38.7% over_4.5 44.0%
under_4.5 56.1% over_5.5 28.9% under_5.5 71.1%
most
home 57.4% draw 10.3% away 32.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.6% away_+3.5 73.4% home_-1.5 46.6%
away_+1.5 53.4% home_-0.5 57.4% away_+0.5 42.6%
home_+0.5 67.8% away_-0.5 32.3% home_+1.5 76.9%
away_-1.5 23.2% home_+3.5 89.9% away_-3.5 10.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 67.6% under_22.5 32.4% over_24.5 55.9%
under_24.5 44.1% over_26.5 44.0% under_26.5 56.0%
over_28.5 32.8% under_28.5 67.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 78.9% under_10.5 21.1% over_12.5 64.9%
under_12.5 35.1% over_14.5 49.6% under_14.5 50.4%
team_away
over_10.5 51.7% under_10.5 48.3% over_12.5 34.4%
under_12.5 65.6% over_14.5 20.8% under_14.5 79.2%
most
home 68.2% draw 5.2% away 26.6%
handicap
home_-4.5 44.8% away_+4.5 55.2% home_-2.5 56.8%
away_+2.5 43.2% home_-0.5 68.2% away_+0.5 31.8%
home_+0.5 73.4% away_-0.5 26.6% home_+2.5 82.3%
away_-2.5 17.7% home_+4.5 89.1% away_-4.5 10.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 76.1% under_6.5 23.9% over_7.5 64.9%
under_7.5 35.1% over_8.5 52.9% under_8.5 47.1%
over_9.5 41.3% under_9.5 58.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.8% under_3.5 24.3% over_4.5 60.9%
under_4.5 39.1% over_5.5 45.7% under_5.5 54.3%
team_away
over_3.5 45.7% under_3.5 54.3% over_4.5 28.5%
under_4.5 71.5% over_5.5 16.2% under_5.5 83.8%
most
home 66.6% draw 10.5% away 22.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 42.5% away_+2.5 57.5% home_-0.5 66.6%
away_+0.5 33.4% home_+0.5 77.1% away_-0.5 22.9%
home_+2.5 91.4% away_-2.5 8.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 81.2% under_2.5 18.8% over_3.5 64.1%
under_3.5 35.9% over_4.5 45.3% under_4.5 54.7%
over_5.5 28.8% under_5.5 71.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 60.3% under_1.5 39.7% over_2.5 33.8%
under_2.5 66.2%
team_away
over_1.5 67.9% under_1.5 32.1% over_2.5 42.2%
under_2.5 57.8%
most
home 34.7% draw 19.1% away 46.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.0% away_+1.5 81.0% home_-0.5 34.7%
away_+0.5 65.3% home_+0.5 53.8% away_-0.5 46.2%
home_+1.5 71.8% away_-1.5 28.2%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 66.7% under_20.5 33.3% over_22.5 52.7%
under_22.5 47.3% over_24.5 38.8% under_24.5 61.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 63.3% under_9.5 36.7% over_11.5 42.6%
under_11.5 57.4% over_13.5 25.0% under_13.5 75.0%
team_away
over_9.5 72.4% under_9.5 27.7% over_11.5 53.1%
under_11.5 46.9% over_13.5 34.4% under_13.5 65.6%
most
home 39.2% draw 7.1% away 53.8%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.7% away_+3.5 79.3% home_-0.5 39.2%
away_+0.5 60.8% home_+2.5 60.5% away_-2.5 39.5%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 23.8% no 76.2%
home
yes 4.7% no 95.3%
away
yes 20.0% no 80.0%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: St. Gilloise predictions · Anderlecht predictions · Pro League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Pro LeagueSt. GilloiseAnderlechtTrack record