Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Standard: model prediction
Pro LeagueOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Standard
Over 8.5 corners
Full time0 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Standard at 39.3%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 58.0% and it missed (3 goals). We called No at 51.6% and it missed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Expect a tight one: the model splits Oud-Heverlee Leuven and Standard almost evenly, Standard marginally on top at 39%. The numbers that frame it: • The market broadly agrees, pricing Standard at 39%. • This shapes as a low scoring affair: Over 2.5 is only 42% with both teams to score at 48%. • The recent series reads 2 wins for Oud-Heverlee Leuven, 1 draws and 2 for Standard over 5 games, 2.2 goals on average. • Form guide over the last six: Oud-Heverlee Leuven W1 D1 L4, Standard W2 D3 L1. Fatigue may matter, with Standard 6 days shorter on recovery than Oud-Heverlee Leuven. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.012 <= 0.03.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
31.6%-1.1%
29.1%+1.2%
39.3%-0.1%
value_gap +0.012 <= 0.03
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2 · 1 draws · Standard 2 · 2.2 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
StandardLeague averages this season: 3.29 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 50%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 74.4% | Over 7.5 | 62.9% | Over 8.5 | 50.6% | Over 9.5 | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 50.2% | Most: Standard | 37.5% | ||||
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven Over 4.2 | 48.6% | Standard Over 4.2 | 39.4% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 73.2% | Over 3.5 | 53.2% | Over 4.5 | 34.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 38.2% | Most: Standard | 40.9% | ||
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven Over 1.8 | 55.8% | Standard Over 1.8 | 57.7% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven clean sheet | 28.4% |
|---|---|
| Standard clean sheet | 33.2% |
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven win to nil | 18.3% |
| Standard win to nil | 23.1% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 31.6% | draw | 29.1% | away | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 60.7% | 12 | 70.9% | X2 | 68.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 44.6% | away | 55.4% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 48.4% | no | 51.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 28.4% | away | 33.3% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 18.3% | away | 23.2% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 18.8% | home_by_2 | 8.9% | home_by_3plus | 3.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 21.6% | away_by_2 | 11.6% | away_by_3plus | 6.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 10.1% | 0-1 | 11.3% | 0-2 | 7.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 3.1% | 0-4 | 1.0% | 0-5 | 0.3% |
| 1-0 | 9.7% | 1-1 | 13.7% | 1-2 | 8.2% |
| 1-3 | 3.4% | 1-4 | 1.1% | 1-5 | 0.3% |
| 2-0 | 5.7% | 2-1 | 7.2% | 2-2 | 4.5% |
| 2-3 | 1.9% | 2-4 | 0.6% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 2.1% | 3-1 | 2.7% | 3-2 | 1.7% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.6% | 4-1 | 0.7% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.2% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.2% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.0% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.3% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 13.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 89.9% | under_0.5 | 10.1% | over_1.5 | 68.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 31.1% | over_2.5 | 42.0% | under_2.5 | 58.0% |
| over_3.5 | 21.3% | under_3.5 | 78.7% | over_4.5 | 9.1% |
| under_4.5 | 90.9% | over_5.5 | 3.3% | under_5.5 | 96.7% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.2% | even | 51.8% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 66.7% | under_0.5 | 33.3% | over_1.5 | 30.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.8% | over_2.5 | 10.0% | under_2.5 | 90.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 71.6% | under_0.5 | 28.4% | over_1.5 | 35.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 64.2% | over_2.5 | 13.3% | under_2.5 | 86.7% |
most
| home | 31.6% | draw | 29.1% | away | 39.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 3.9% | away_+2.5 | 96.1% | home_-1.5 | 12.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 87.2% | home_-0.5 | 31.6% | away_+0.5 | 68.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 60.8% | away_-0.5 | 39.3% | home_+1.5 | 82.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 17.7% | home_+2.5 | 93.9% | away_-2.5 | 6.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 10.1% | exact_1 | 21.0% | exact_2 | 26.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 20.7% | exact_4 | 12.2% | exact_5 | 5.8% |
| exact_6 | 2.3% | exact_7plus | 1.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 26.6% | draw | 47.3% | away | 26.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 62.2% | under_0.5 | 37.8% | over_1.5 | 25.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 74.6% | over_2.5 | 7.5% | under_2.5 | 92.5% |
btts
| yes | 14.8% | no | 85.2% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 37.8% | exact_1 | 36.8% | exact_2 | 17.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.8% | exact_4plus | 1.7% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 22.9% | draw | 39.3% | away | 37.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 73.1% | under_0.5 | 26.9% | over_1.5 | 37.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 62.2% | over_2.5 | 14.6% | under_2.5 | 85.4% |
btts
| yes | 22.4% | no | 77.6% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 18.1% | H/D | 5.8% | H/A | 2.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 10.8% | D/D | 18.6% | D/A | 17.9% |
| A/H | 1.1% | A/D | 3.8% | A/A | 21.1% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 79.4% | under_7.5 | 20.6% | over_8.5 | 69.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 30.9% | over_9.5 | 57.6% | under_9.5 | 42.4% |
| over_10.5 | 45.8% | under_10.5 | 54.2% | over_11.5 | 34.7% |
| under_11.5 | 65.3% | over_12.5 | 25.2% | under_12.5 | 74.9% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 77.8% | under_3.5 | 22.2% | over_4.5 | 63.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 36.4% | over_5.5 | 48.5% | under_5.5 | 51.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 65.8% | under_3.5 | 34.2% | over_4.5 | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.1% | over_5.5 | 33.5% | under_5.5 | 66.5% |
most
| home | 54.7% | draw | 10.3% | away | 35.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 25.0% | away_+3.5 | 75.0% | home_-1.5 | 44.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 55.8% | home_-0.5 | 54.7% | away_+0.5 | 45.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.0% | away_-0.5 | 35.0% | home_+1.5 | 74.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 25.7% | home_+3.5 | 88.1% | away_-3.5 | 11.9% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 69.6% | under_22.5 | 30.4% | over_24.5 | 58.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 41.8% | over_26.5 | 46.5% | under_26.5 | 53.6% |
| over_28.5 | 35.2% | under_28.5 | 64.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 77.4% | under_10.5 | 22.6% | over_12.5 | 63.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 37.0% | over_14.5 | 47.5% | under_14.5 | 52.5% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 57.6% | under_10.5 | 42.4% | over_12.5 | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 59.8% | over_14.5 | 25.6% | under_14.5 | 74.4% |
most
| home | 63.0% | draw | 5.5% | away | 31.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 39.5% | away_+4.5 | 60.5% | home_-2.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 48.7% | home_-0.5 | 63.0% | away_+0.5 | 37.0% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.5% | away_-0.5 | 31.5% | home_+2.5 | 78.3% |
| away_-2.5 | 21.7% | home_+4.5 | 86.0% | away_-4.5 | 14.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 74.4% | under_6.5 | 25.6% | over_7.5 | 62.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 37.2% | over_8.5 | 50.6% | under_8.5 | 49.4% |
| over_9.5 | 38.9% | under_9.5 | 61.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.5% | under_3.5 | 34.5% | over_4.5 | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.4% | over_5.5 | 33.2% | under_5.5 | 66.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 57.0% | under_3.5 | 43.1% | over_4.5 | 39.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 60.6% | over_5.5 | 24.9% | under_5.5 | 75.1% |
most
| home | 50.2% | draw | 12.3% | away | 37.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 26.9% | away_+2.5 | 73.1% | home_-0.5 | 50.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 49.8% | home_+0.5 | 62.5% | away_-0.5 | 37.5% |
| home_+2.5 | 82.7% | away_-2.5 | 17.3% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 73.2% | under_2.5 | 26.8% | over_3.5 | 53.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 46.8% | over_4.5 | 34.1% | under_4.5 | 65.9% |
| over_5.5 | 19.4% | under_5.5 | 80.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 55.8% | under_1.5 | 44.2% | over_2.5 | 29.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 70.7% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 57.7% | under_1.5 | 42.3% | over_2.5 | 31.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 68.8% |
most
| home | 38.2% | draw | 20.9% | away | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 20.6% | away_+1.5 | 79.4% | home_-0.5 | 38.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 61.8% | home_+0.5 | 59.1% | away_-0.5 | 40.9% |
| home_+1.5 | 77.4% | away_-1.5 | 22.7% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 66.7% | under_20.5 | 33.3% | over_22.5 | 52.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 47.4% | over_24.5 | 38.7% | under_24.5 | 61.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 70.9% | under_9.5 | 29.1% | over_11.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 48.7% | over_13.5 | 32.7% | under_13.5 | 67.3% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 64.9% | under_9.5 | 35.1% | over_11.5 | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 55.6% | over_13.5 | 26.5% | under_13.5 | 73.5% |
most
| home | 51.3% | draw | 7.1% | away | 41.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 30.6% | away_+3.5 | 69.4% | home_-0.5 | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 48.7% | home_+2.5 | 71.7% | away_-2.5 | 28.3% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 19.8% | no | 80.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 12.4% | no | 87.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 8.5% | no | 91.5% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Oud-Heverlee Leuven predictions · Standard predictions · Pro League
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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