Groningen vs For Sittard: model prediction
EredivisieOver 1.5 goals
Groningen or draw
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Groningen at 53.2%, and it was wrong. We called Over 2.5 at 60.9% and it landed (5 goals). We called Yes at 60.8% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
"53% on Groningen is a measurement, not a promise." Groningen go into this Eredivisie meeting with For Sittard on 28 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 53%. Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Groningen higher (66%) than our model does. Everything in the shot data points to goals, 61% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 61%. The recent series reads 2 wins for Groningen, 0 draws and 3 for For Sittard over 5 games, 2.4 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Groningen W4 D0 L2, For Sittard W2 D1 L3. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
53.2%-13.3%
23.2%+4.0%
23.6%+9.3%
too extreme an outsider (fair 0.14)
Goals markets
High probability
Strong chance
Strong chance
Corners markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Shots markets
Strong chance
Strong chance
Good chance
Toss-up
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Groningen 2 · 0 draws · For Sittard 3 · 2.4 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Groningen
For SittardLeague averages this season: 3.75 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 75% · BTTS in 71%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 82.9% | Over 7.5 | 73.9% | Over 8.5 | 63.5% | Over 9.5 | 52.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Groningen | 54.0% | Most: For Sittard | 35.2% | ||||
| Groningen Over 4.2 | 59.9% | For Sittard Over 4.2 | 46.5% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 54.0% | Over 3.5 | 32.0% | Over 4.5 | 16.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Groningen | 28.4% | Most: For Sittard | 47.3% | ||
| Groningen Over 1.8 | 34.0% | For Sittard Over 1.8 | 48.5% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Groningen clean sheet | 29.0% |
|---|---|
| For Sittard clean sheet | 14.6% |
| Groningen win to nil | 24.2% |
| For Sittard win to nil | 9.8% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 53.2% | draw | 23.2% | away | 23.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 76.4% | 12 | 76.8% | X2 | 46.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 69.2% | away | 30.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 60.8% | no | 39.3% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 29.4% | away | 14.6% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 24.6% | away | 9.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 22.1% | home_by_2 | 16.3% | home_by_3plus | 14.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 13.9% | away_by_2 | 6.6% | away_by_3plus | 3.1% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 4.8% | 0-1 | 4.8% | 0-2 | 3.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.3% | 0-4 | 0.4% | 0-5 | 0.1% |
| 1-0 | 7.8% | 1-1 | 10.6% | 1-2 | 6.2% |
| 1-3 | 2.5% | 1-4 | 0.8% | 1-5 | 0.2% |
| 2-0 | 8.0% | 2-1 | 9.7% | 2-2 | 5.9% |
| 2-3 | 2.4% | 2-4 | 0.7% | 2-5 | 0.2% |
| 3-0 | 5.1% | 3-1 | 6.2% | 3-2 | 3.8% |
| 3-3 | 1.6% | 3-4 | 0.5% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 2.5% | 4-1 | 3.0% | 4-2 | 1.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.8% | 4-4 | 0.2% | 4-5 | 0.1% |
| 5-0 | 0.9% | 5-1 | 1.2% | 5-2 | 0.7% |
| 5-3 | 0.3% | 5-4 | 0.1% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 1.6% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 10.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 95.2% | under_0.5 | 4.8% | over_1.5 | 82.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 17.3% | over_2.5 | 60.9% | under_2.5 | 39.2% |
| over_3.5 | 38.5% | under_3.5 | 61.5% | over_4.5 | 21.0% |
| under_4.5 | 79.0% | over_5.5 | 9.9% | under_5.5 | 90.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.9% | even | 51.1% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 85.4% | under_0.5 | 14.6% | over_1.5 | 57.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 42.8% | over_2.5 | 30.2% | under_2.5 | 69.8% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 70.6% | under_0.5 | 29.4% | over_1.5 | 34.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 65.4% | over_2.5 | 12.6% | under_2.5 | 87.4% |
most
| home | 53.2% | draw | 23.2% | away | 23.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 14.7% | away_+2.5 | 85.3% | home_-1.5 | 31.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 69.0% | home_-0.5 | 53.2% | away_+0.5 | 46.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 76.4% | away_-0.5 | 23.6% | home_+1.5 | 90.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 9.7% | home_+2.5 | 96.9% | away_-2.5 | 3.1% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 4.8% | exact_1 | 12.5% | exact_2 | 21.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.3% | exact_4 | 17.5% | exact_5 | 11.0% |
| exact_6 | 5.8% | exact_7plus | 4.1% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 40.4% | draw | 36.7% | away | 22.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 76.7% | under_0.5 | 23.3% | over_1.5 | 42.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 57.3% | over_2.5 | 18.0% | under_2.5 | 82.0% |
btts
| yes | 25.7% | no | 74.3% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 23.3% | exact_1 | 34.0% | exact_2 | 24.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 12.0% | exact_4plus | 6.0% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 43.2% | draw | 34.0% | away | 22.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 80.4% | under_0.5 | 19.6% | over_1.5 | 48.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 51.5% | over_2.5 | 22.5% | under_2.5 | 77.5% |
btts
| yes | 29.6% | no | 70.4% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 33.8% | H/D | 4.9% | H/A | 1.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 15.9% | D/D | 12.5% | D/A | 8.4% |
| A/H | 3.1% | A/D | 5.1% | A/A | 14.6% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 79.9% | under_7.5 | 20.1% | over_8.5 | 70.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 30.0% | over_9.5 | 58.8% | under_9.5 | 41.2% |
| over_10.5 | 47.3% | under_10.5 | 52.7% | over_11.5 | 36.4% |
| under_11.5 | 63.6% | over_12.5 | 26.8% | under_12.5 | 73.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 79.3% | under_3.5 | 20.7% | over_4.5 | 66.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 33.8% | over_5.5 | 52.3% | under_5.5 | 47.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 62.3% | under_3.5 | 37.7% | over_4.5 | 46.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 54.1% | over_5.5 | 31.5% | under_5.5 | 68.5% |
most
| home | 58.7% | draw | 9.3% | away | 32.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 30.2% | away_+3.5 | 69.8% | home_-1.5 | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 51.1% | home_-0.5 | 58.7% | away_+0.5 | 41.3% |
| home_+0.5 | 68.0% | away_-0.5 | 32.0% | home_+1.5 | 76.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 23.7% | home_+3.5 | 88.6% | away_-3.5 | 11.4% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 71.9% | under_22.5 | 28.1% | over_24.5 | 61.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 38.5% | over_26.5 | 50.4% | under_26.5 | 49.6% |
| over_28.5 | 39.5% | under_28.5 | 60.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 77.6% | under_10.5 | 22.4% | over_12.5 | 64.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 35.8% | over_14.5 | 49.6% | under_14.5 | 50.4% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 60.3% | under_10.5 | 39.7% | over_12.5 | 44.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 56.0% | over_14.5 | 29.6% | under_14.5 | 70.4% |
most
| home | 61.5% | draw | 5.3% | away | 33.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 39.2% | away_+4.5 | 60.8% | home_-2.5 | 50.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 49.6% | home_-0.5 | 61.5% | away_+0.5 | 38.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 66.7% | away_-0.5 | 33.3% | home_+2.5 | 76.2% |
| away_-2.5 | 23.8% | home_+4.5 | 84.0% | away_-4.5 | 16.0% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 82.9% | under_6.5 | 17.1% | over_7.5 | 73.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 26.1% | over_8.5 | 63.5% | under_8.5 | 36.5% |
| over_9.5 | 52.7% | under_9.5 | 47.3% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 74.4% | under_3.5 | 25.6% | over_4.5 | 59.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 40.1% | over_5.5 | 45.2% | under_5.5 | 54.8% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 63.1% | under_3.5 | 36.9% | over_4.5 | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 53.5% | over_5.5 | 31.8% | under_5.5 | 68.2% |
most
| home | 54.0% | draw | 10.9% | away | 35.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 32.5% | away_+2.5 | 67.5% | home_-0.5 | 54.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 46.0% | home_+0.5 | 64.9% | away_-0.5 | 35.2% |
| home_+2.5 | 82.6% | away_-2.5 | 17.4% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 54.0% | under_2.5 | 46.0% | over_3.5 | 32.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 68.0% | over_4.5 | 16.3% | under_4.5 | 83.7% |
| over_5.5 | 7.2% | under_5.5 | 92.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 49.8% | even | 50.2% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 34.0% | under_1.5 | 66.0% | over_2.5 | 12.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 87.5% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 48.5% | under_1.5 | 51.5% | over_2.5 | 22.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 77.2% |
most
| home | 28.4% | draw | 24.3% | away | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 11.8% | away_+1.5 | 88.2% | home_-0.5 | 28.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 71.6% | home_+0.5 | 52.7% | away_-0.5 | 47.3% |
| home_+1.5 | 75.0% | away_-1.5 | 25.0% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 55.8% | under_20.5 | 44.2% | over_22.5 | 40.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 59.6% | over_24.5 | 26.9% | under_24.5 | 73.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 56.9% | under_9.5 | 43.1% | over_11.5 | 35.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 64.9% | over_13.5 | 18.4% | under_13.5 | 81.6% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 64.9% | under_9.5 | 35.1% | over_11.5 | 43.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 56.5% | over_13.5 | 25.0% | under_13.5 | 75.0% |
most
| home | 40.2% | draw | 7.8% | away | 52.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 20.1% | away_+3.5 | 79.9% | home_-0.5 | 40.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 59.9% | home_+2.5 | 63.3% | away_-2.5 | 36.7% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 13.6% | no | 86.4% |
|---|
home
| yes | 3.6% | no | 96.4% |
|---|
away
| yes | 10.3% | no | 89.7% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Groningen predictions · For Sittard predictions · Eredivisie
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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